US Supreme Court Affirms Warrantless Ass Searches
Who else…but Goldy.
Goldy goes on to explain that Washington has laws that require a warrant for incarceratory cavity probes.
The gist of the Supreme Court ruling is that jailers have the right to invasive searches without warrants because of the heightened security environment of a jail or prison.
Yet…somehow, lacking warrantless ass searches, Washington state jails and prisons manage to not spiral into utter chaos.
Maybe it’s the climate.
– Seattle’s Road Map to a Climate-Friendly Future
– Call me a skeptic, but I think corporate compassion is mostly PR.
– Pictures of the U-Link breakthrough.
– Our awesome banking system.
– Health care glossary.
A new Grove Insight poll of the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and Washington state AG Rob McKenna (R) shows Inslee with a +2% lead over McKenna. The poll surveyed 500 likely Washington voters (M.O.E. 4.4%) from the 26th to 28th of March.
Before doing my usual Monte Carlo analysis of the results, I want to point out that with this poll and the previous Grove Insight poll, I debated whether or not to analyze the results. One of my rules for polls is to, “ignore polls released by party organizations or candidates.” The issue is that campaigns and party organizations commission polls all the time, but we rarely get to see the polling results. When they are released, there is a strategic reason. Therefore, including such polls can lead to a biased overall interpretation, even if the polls themselves are completely honest and accurate.
Both of the Grove Insight polls are, apparently, commissioned by the SEIU. Even though SEIU isn’t part of the campaign or the Democratic party, SEIU has recently endorsed Inslee and they obviously share elements of their politics. I really don’t know if Grove Insight would have released these results if they had been bad for Inslee. It is a close call, but I opted to go with publishing an analysis.
Of the 500 respondents, there were only 360 who had a preference for either Inslee or McKenna, so the effective margin of error is actually bigger than the 4.4% given in the release. A Monte Carlo analysis that held a million simulated elections gave Inslee a win 762,761 times and McKenna a win 225,707 times.
The analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Inslee would have a 77.2% probability of beating McKenna. Note that by statistical conventions we would call this a tie because the winning percentage doesn’t exceed 95%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes resulting from the analysis:
This makes three consecutive polls that contradict the narrative that McKenna is the front-runner:
Although I want input from another poll or two, it is beginning to look like this race is flipping—gone from McKenna having a hefty lead, to a tie. If correct, it’s pretty remarkable is how fast things have turned around….
[The most recent analysis in this race can be found here.]
Another act (h/t) that again has nothing to do with any other incident like it or the noxious political environment the GOP is pushing. Just another nut. No connective tissue. It’s all completely senseless and unpredictable.
Grand Chute police are investigating an explosive device that blew up at Planned Parenthood.
It happened about 7:40 p.m. Sunday at the Planned Parenthood office at 3800 North Gillett Street.
Authorities say a plastic water bottle filled with an accelerant caused the blast and fire, which quickly extinguished itself by the time firefighters arrived.
Fortunately nobody was hurt, and it doesn’t seem to have done much damage. Still, it could have been much worse. And I feel like a broken record here, but while of course the person who did this is responsible for their actions, the anti-choice people should recognize their contribution to this, especially the ones using violent, eliminationist rhetoric.
What the hell is up with white hipster Jesus, Newsweek?
– Urban agriculture discussion in Olympia.
– Too far
For as long as the Trayvon Martin story has been in the news, the mindset of those feverishly trying to defend George Zimmerman has been fascinating to me. And for a while, I had trouble coming up with a parallel. But earlier this week, I think I managed to come up with what it reminds me of. It reminds me of how so many folks clung to a belief that OJ Simpson was totally innocent of the murders of his ex-wife and her boyfriend, no matter how much evidence began piling up against it.
Most readers of this blog aren’t under any illusions as to what happened that night in Sanford. George Zimmerman, a ridiculously overzealous “block watchman” who’d called 9-1-1 dozens of times, sees Martin walking back from the local 7-11 and finds him suspicious. What happens next is abundantly clear from both Zimmerman’s 9-1-1 call to police and Martin’s brief conversation with a friend back home. Zimmerman, who’s armed with a firearm, confronts Martin. Martin, likely already in fear for his life, tries to defend himself. But he’s armed with nothing but candy and iced tea – and as a result, Zimmerman is able to shoot him dead.
The common thread between both the OJ dead-enders and the crackpots bending over backwards to absolve Zimmerman of any blame is a strong desire to believe the counter-narrative. With the OJ case, so many people wanted to believe that this was about crooked law enforcement and not the murder of two innocent people. And with the Trayvon Martin case, many people want to believe that this is about criminality in the black community and not the senseless murder of an innocent teen. But the reality with both cases is that neither narrative is relevant. The only thing that really matters is that innocent people were killed and the families involved have the right to demand justice.
It’s an unspeakable outrage that George Zimmerman hasn’t been arrested yet. And sadly, I worry that even if he does get arrested, not enough was done by the police to collect enough evidence to convict him. When OJ was acquitted, I was in the student union building in Ann Arbor watching it on TV. Dozens of African-American students celebrated in what I found to be a somewhat disturbing display. And yet, I’m almost bracing myself for the same thing should George Zimmerman stand trial and beat that murder charge. Those who believe that killing the innocent is acceptable within the shadow of some other perceived injustice will celebrate. And America will die a little bit again.
Last week’s contest was won by Budget Wonk. It was the Ozar Hatorah school in Toulouse, France where a gunman killed three children and a teacher last month.
Here’s this week’s contest, which is a random location somewhere in the world, good luck!
Proverbs 31:6-7
Let beer be for those who are perishing,
wine for those who are in anguish!
Let them drink and forget their poverty
and remember their misery no more.
Discuss.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Roy Zimmerman: Texas verse of “Vote Republican”.
Medicare, Affordable Care, and Health Care:
Jennifer Granholm: Outrage over the war on women is deafening.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen. Rand Paul shills for Big Oil.
V.P. Biden says “Thank you, Dr. Pepper” to Dr. Paper.
Stephen on Obama’s secret plot to not take away your guns.
The G.O.P. CrazyFest:
Greenman: What we knew about global warming in 1982.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week:
Jon: Obama’s hot mic gaffe.
Sam Seder: It isn’t just phone hacking for Newscorp anymore.
Death Sentence for Trayvon:
Roy Zimmerman: Utah verse of “Vote Republican”.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Obama: Repeal subsidies for oil companies.
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’ biased reporting on CA prisons.
Sam Seder: Dick Cheney has a heart.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I was looking around editorial pages for something to make fun of, and instead I found this great opinion piece in the Yakima Herrald-Republic.
My faith is important to me. And I believe that religious faith is a fundamental human right that government should not restrict. My faith may be different from my evangelist neighbor’s in that I believe that two consenting adults who love each other should be allowed to be married no matter what their gender mix is, and I believe that more ethically responsible decisions can be made by women who have access to contraception and abortion services. So no, I don’t feel that my faith, anyway, is under attack.
But I do feel that something is amiss. Our Constitution, thankfully, says that government shall not restrict the free exercise of religion; but I don’t see in any of these examples the government doing that. The government is not requiring people to marry someone of the same gender, or mandating that people take birth control. I understand that filling a “Plan B” prescription may be counter to someone’s religious values, but that is not the same as exercising one’s religion. The Catholic Church is not being asked to actually take birth control pills; they are only being asked to provide reasonable coverage for health benefits like all other employers, and pharmacists are being asked to simply do their jobs. These examples have nothing to do with religious practice.
| Obama | Romney |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| AR | Talk Business-Hendrix College | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 759 | 3.6 | 33.0 | 56.5 | R+23.5 |
| CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 53 | 37 | O+16 |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1228 | 2.8 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
| MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
| NE | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 1028 | 3.1 | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
| NE1 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 432 | — | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
| NE2 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 277 | — | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
| NE3 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 319 | — | 31 | 57 | R+26 |
| NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 41 | O+7 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
| OH | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1246 | 2.8 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
| OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.8 | 38.8 | O+11.0 |
| PA | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1232 | 2.8 | 45 | 42 | O+3 |
| VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 27-Mar | 27-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
| WI | Marist | 26-Mar | 27-Mar | 1400 | 2.6 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
| WI | Marquette Law School | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 707 | — | 48.2 | 43.2 | O+4.9 |
The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Yesterday I attended an open house for several transit agencies to discuss the elimination of the free ride area in September. It was mostly what you know already if you’re paying attention. Starting September 29, every route will be pay as you enter, and what’s now the free ride area will just be part of the Seattle zones for Metro and ST.
The one thing that I hadn’t realized (and I didn’t notice until I was reviewing one of the handouts on the way home, so I didn’t get to ask anyone about it) was that they are considering ways to help poor people get around. These include “increase the number of human service tickets provided to the agencies” and to “operate a free circulator.”
I wish I had a chance to ask someone about it, but the two questions that come to mind are who would operate it and how do they keep it from becoming a rolling homeless shelter? I assume that the question of who operates it hasn’t been worked out since the entire idea seems to still be up in the air. As for the homeless people: of course there should be services for them, but the bus isn’t that.
I’d like a circulator through the urban core (and both ways if it’s not just up and down the same street), free or not. But I’m not sure free is the better way to go.
You know, I hate to say it, but the trolls are right. This blog isn’t fair to conservatives. We exclude their voices and we don’t take them seriously. That’s why I’m glad to see we’ve added Rob McKenna’s Twitter feed to the side bar. Sure he’s a Republican who presumably nobody writing on this blog will vote for, but it’s important to have his voice.
We can dramatically increase state spending on K-12 education by dramatically decreasing spending on teachers. It’s #McKennaMath
I endorse Michael Bumgardener for US Senate! Watch out, Miss. Cantwell!
I’ve always felt it inappropriate for elected officials to endorse in pres. primaries. Except for 2008, 2004, & 2000. That was different.
So welcome aboard Rob.
In 2005, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-8) was one of only 21 Republicans to vote against House Resolution 639 that, essentially, authorized drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). HR-639 passed the house only to be killed in the Senate (thanks to a big show of leadership by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)).
Reichert has gotten a lot of mileage out of these types of “courageous” votes against his own party…but he shouldn’t. After all, Reichert stupidly admitted that his voting record was built on a strategy of keeping himself and Republicans in power—even on this very ANWR vote:
Sometimes the leadership comes to me and says, “Dave, we want you to vote a certain way.’ Now, they know I can do that over here, that I have to do that over here. In other districts, that’s not a problem, but here I have to be able to be very flexible in where I place my votes. Because the big picture here is, keep this seat, keep the majority, keep the country moving forward with Republican ideals…. Not the vote I place on ANWAR that you may not agree with, or the vote that I place on protecting salmon.”
With redistricting, Reichert finds himself moving from a very competitive district to a safe district. So today, when the House Republicans took a vote on the Ryan budget—you know, the one that would dismantle Medicare and replace it with a coupon system–how did Reichert vote?
He voted in favor of it (via Publicola):
Perhaps it’s because he’s in a safer Republican district now thanks to redistricting (and the only person running against him has raised just $12,000), but US Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA, 8 ), who has broken with his party on some high-profile and highly politicized votes in the past, stuck with his party today. (In the past, Reichert voted against his party to override President Bush’s veto of a children’s health care bill, voted for the employee non-discrimination act, i.e., for gay rights, voted with President Obama and the Democrats to extend emergency unemployment benefits, and, most dramatically, voted for the cap and trade bill.
Today, the liberated Congressman from the redrawn 8th (no more rich Microsoft liberals coming after him), voted for the controversial budget pushed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in a party-line 228-191 vote.
Last year, Reichert skipped this vote…not out of political strategy, but because his mother had just died after an 18-month bout with pancreatic cancer (and, no doubt, Medicare prevented another bankruptcy). His office suggests he would have voted for it with the caveat that:
I’ve heard from my constituents and share their concerns about reductions in Pell Grants for low-income students, oil drilling expansion in our wilderness, and how entitlement reform could affect seniors and those approaching retirement.
Today he really did vote for a extremist right-wing bill. Sure…this version is a bit less extreme than the previous version, but it is still extreme. Yes, this one lets Senior’s use their coupons to purchase their way into a Medicare-like system. (This particular modification came about with the assistance of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR).) It’s still extreme.
The bottom line is that the bill gives tax breaks to the wealthy at the same time raising health care costs for Seniors by thousands of dollars a year. And it does lots of other bad things, like repealing key parts of “Obamacare” and cutting Pell Grants.
If this bill were to become law millions of Americans would be affected by loss of insurance, increased health care costs, uncertainty and bankruptcy.
As Publicola suggests, Riechert is free now—free from having to take strategic votes that appease his constituents against his conscience.
Reichert still represents the OLD 8th Congressional District. What his vote today did was tell many of his constituents (the soon-to-be ex-constituents from the liberal parts of the old 8th) to fuck-off. And why shouldn’t he? Yeah…as he said last year, he’s heard from them, he knows their concerns. But they no longer hold anything over him, so screw ’em.
You’re not gonna use the pink ball. We’re not gonna let you do that. Not on camera. Friends don’t let friends use pink balls.
I’m pretty sure Rick prefers blue balls….
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