An all local open thread, but feel free to talk about whatever you want in the comments.
– This is about the greatest picture I’ve ever seen.
– Solid endorsements for DelBene.
– Financial fitness day.
– Strangest opening day ever.
by Carl Ballard — ,
An all local open thread, but feel free to talk about whatever you want in the comments.
– This is about the greatest picture I’ve ever seen.
– Solid endorsements for DelBene.
– Financial fitness day.
– Strangest opening day ever.
by Carl Ballard — ,
I’ve been reluctant to write the following piece. I mean, what about the white guy’s experience isn’t the most useful frame for the Trayvon Martin case. And unlike the founder of this blog, I try to keep my personal life personal; the most I usually write about myself is I took my bike somewhere. Still, the discussion of the stand your ground laws make me think of the time my housemate was killed, and I wonder what might have happened if we’d had stand your ground laws here in Washington like those in Florida.
Basically, the story is this: After college, I was underemployed and bumming around suburbia. Eventually, I moved into a house with several other people. The house was advertised in the local paper and I didn’t know any of the people before I moved in. It was cheap while I got myself onto a better situation.
It was a large house and people moved in and out all the time. One couple moved in and was constantly late on payments and was constantly getting into arguments with the landlord.
One weekend the landlord shot him and then claimed self defense. The forensic evidence didn’t back up his claims, and eventually he plead down and will be in prison for a long time, but I wonder if it would have been easier for him to concoct a story if we had those sorts of laws, and if it would have been a tougher case for prosecutors.
by Darryl — ,
No surprise, really:
While he is yet to campaign in Wisconsin, Mitt Romney worked the state’s Republican voters from Dallas on Wednesday, holding a “telephone town hall” in which he embraced Gov. Scott Walker’s labor policies, endorsed U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan’s House budget….
Got that?
The problem for Romney is that these two positions taken together pretty much make him unelectable in a general election.
Romney is counting on being able to “hit the reset button”—start over in his political positioning—after winning the nomination.
Will it work in 2012? Can a campaign really erase history when access to video, audio, and print media has become so democratized? Or will truckloads of money succeed in buying a big case of collective amnesia?
by Carl Ballard — ,
I’m thinking of doing another round of candidate questions like I did for Seattle City Council last year. Since unlike City Council, most of these races are partisan, and I have no qualms about being a Democrat, I’ll have to start asking questions sooner, so they cover the primary. I was thinking the open seats in Seattle and the the executive offices with more than one Democrat running.
Like last time, it would be the same set of questions emailed to all of the candidates, so no when-you-were-mayor questions to Nickles, for example. And of course, they may or may not answer them. But I’d be willing to ask different things of different legislative districts. So my question: is this something you’d like to see. And if so, are there any questions you’d like asked, or positions other than those that you’d like me to ask questions to?
by Darryl — ,
Mercifully, there is no new episode of the Primary Reality Show this evening. But a certain case being argued before the Supreme Court will be to talk of the tavern.
So please join us tonight for an evening of jurisprudence under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We’ll begin at our usual starting time of 8:00pm, but some folks will show up even earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There are DLs meeting all around Washington state, including in the Tri-Cities and Bellingham tonight, Burien on Wednesday night, as well as Yakima and South Bellevue next Monday.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– What Everyone Needs To Know About The Smear Campaign Against Trayvon Martin (1995-2012)
– There’s quite a bit to take in in this Joan Walsh piece.
by Carl Ballard — ,
I know it’s super provincial, but I don’t care: I love it when Seattle and Washington State get mentioned in the New York Times, especially for good things.
Nationwide, women’s groups point out the glaring gender disparity in public life, noting that there are only 6 female governors and 17 female senators. Across the country, women make up 23.6 percent of state legislatures, according to Off the Sidelines, a project started last year by Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand of New York. But in Washington State, women’s serving in public office has been as consistent as the rain.
“Every once in a while a note or a letter will mention it,” Ms. Gregoire said. “But mostly, it’s taken for granted.”
Courtney Gregoire, her daughter, would relay differences between Washington State and Washington, D.C., where she worked as the director of the National Export Initiative at the Commerce Department. She found herself biting her tongue when men mentioned her age (she is 32), and she started wearing pantsuits to appear older. Once, after being the lone woman in a meeting of 25, she called her mother.
The governor replied, “Welcome to how it was for us.”
There’s still a lot of work for equal representation here in Washington. A lot of women are retiring from the legislature this year. I mentioned a while ago that we might not have any women elected executive officers come November. I don’t think the Democratic party has done a particularly good job in recent years of recruiting women.
Also, the Norm Dicks quote (if it was in context) makes me glad he’s retiring.
“I think women tend to advocate for women, and I think to myself, ‘They ought to mention men, too,’ ” he said. “When I’m running, I’m not just talking about men, I’m talking about men, women and children. I think women in politics have to be a little careful not to act as if they’re just representing women.”
Ms. Cantwell, Ms. Gregoire and Ms. Murray have campaigned together, he said, and Ms. Murray in particular has focused on recruiting women to run for public office.
“All of that is great but I feel like, ‘Can’t they find a good man to run sometimes?’ ” Mr. Dicks said.
If only men would run for office sometimes.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– Yesterday was the anniversary of the Triangle fire. If you haven’t seen it, I’d also recommend the American Experience on the topic.
– God, covering a Congressional debate should be rip roaring fun and instead it’s B-O-R-I-N-G. Imagine at a labor debate, labor questions being asked!
– Breitbrats is my new favorite word.
by Lee — ,
Last week’s contest was won by Ludicrus Maximus. It was in the Magnolia neighborhood of Seattle.
This week’s contest is related to a news item from March, good luck!
by Goldy — ,
Exodus 21:12
Death is the punishment for murder.
Exodus 21:22-25
Suppose a pregnant woman suffers a miscarriage as the result of an injury caused by someone who is fighting. If she isn’t badly hurt, the one who injured her must pay whatever fine her husband demands and the judges approve. But if she is seriously injured, the payment will be life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burn for burn, cut for cut, and bruise for bruise.
Discuss.
by Darryl — ,
The polls close in a few minutes in Lousiana, and if the pre-election polling hold, Rick Santorum should win easily.
Tonight’s win is important for Santorum, because there is mostly bad news for him in the near future primary Schedule. A week from Tuesday will be a triple header of D.C, Maryland, and Wisconsin. I doubt Santorum can win any of these, unless Mitt’s Etch-a-sketch wound turns into full-blown political septicemia. And after that, we have a April 24 mini-Super Tuesday, with Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. As it stands now, Romney should take all but Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.
I’ll probably get dragged away from the computer for various thing, but have at it in the comment threads.
5:59 pm (PDT): There are 20 delegates up for grab in LA (46 total). They are’t very important for Santorum who probably cannot win on delegates anyway. He needs a outright slaughter with hopes that it will catalyze a big momentum change in his favor.
6:03: Results can be found here and here.
6:12: Here is a livestream from NBC. From what I can tell, both NBC and CNN have called it for Santorum.
6:30: Barack Obama seem to be taking the Democratic primary in Louisiana with 69.3% of the vote (0.4% reporting).
7:50: With 83.1% of precincts reporting, here is what we have:
Santorum would get a “bragging rights” boost by getting over 50% and/or doubling Romney’s votes—perhaps the former will happen.
by Darryl — ,
Thom: Paul Ryan’s budget—most extreme corporate welfare.
Mark Fiore: iWhine.
Young Turks: Man sues Secret Service over Cheney “assault”.
White House: We the People — Your voice in our government.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Etch-a-Sketching:
President Obama nominates Dr. Jim Yong Kim for World Bank President.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Greenman: Michael Mann’s hockey stick under oath.
Jon on Cable News.
Ann Telnaes: The Going-Nowhere strategy in Afghanistan.
The Republican Primary Jousting Contest:
Thom: Westboro Baptist Church’s Rush advertisement.
Health Reform in Action: One mother’s story:
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Porn-con.
Ann Telnaes: Second anniversary of the Health Care law.
Young Turks: Five worst things about the G.O.P. Ryan budget.
Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” talks Occupy, Joe the Plumber’s campaign & more!
ONN: Joad Cressbeckler denies he incited mob to drag Congressman through briar patch.
Newsy: Congress hires their relatives.
Thom: Why is Tennessee teaching creationism?
Greenman: The search forLord Monckton.
More Skirmishes in the Republican War on Women™:
Health care reform across the country.
Alyona: Worst Proposed Internet laws of 2012.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Ryan’s budget, Zimmerman defenders and other topics.
White House: West Wing Week.
Death by Hoodie:
Ed: The return of Coupon Care.
Conversations with Valerie Plame and Joseph Wilson:
Maddow: Obama nominates true humanitarian for World Bank.
Jimmy Kimmel with some unnecessary censorship.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Santorum |
99.7% probability of winning | 0.3% probability of winning |
Mean of 329 electoral votes | Mean of 209 electoral votes |
There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | S | diff |
AZ | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 45 | S+1 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 55 | 35 | O+20 |
FL | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 45 | 43 | O+2 |
ME | PPP | 02-Mar | 04-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 61 | 29 | O+32 |
MO | Rasmussen | 14-Mar | 15-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 42 | 51 | S+9 |
NE | Rasmussen | 05-Mar | 05-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 37 | 49 | S+12 |
NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 37 | O+11 |
NJ | Fairleigh Dickinson U | 05-Mar | 11-Mar | 800 | 3.5 | 54 | 33 | O+21 |
NM | Rasmussen | 14-Feb | 14-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 55 | 37 | O+18 |
NY | Siena | 26-Feb | 29-Feb | 808 | 3.4 | 64 | 30 | O+34 |
NC | PPP | 08-Mar | 11-Mar | 804 | 3.5 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.3 | 39.5 | O+9.8 |
PA | PPP | 08-Mar | 12-Mar | 564 | 4.1 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 07-Mar | 12-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 53 | 39 | O+14 |
VA | Quinnipiac | 13-Mar | 18-Mar | 1034 | 3.1 | 49 | 40 | O+9 |
The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.
Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Carl Ballard — ,
The other day I took a bike ride down the waterfront. I have to say the bike trail in the Southern part is pretty cool. I hope they expand that all the way up and maybe to the Sculpture Park. Still, riding by some of the recently torn out tracks from the old waterfront streetcar hit me surprisingly hard.
Sure, it’s tough to mourn a line that hasn’t been in service for the better part of a decade: Nobody really believed the route would come back any time soon, and with the tunnel, it has been a done deal for some time that they’d never have that streetcar along the waterfront. I’ve said before that I’m fine in theory with the bus route that replaced it, although I wish it ran both ways and more frequently.
Still, seeing the gravel beds without the tracks had a sense of permanence that the things in the above paragraph don’t. If you’d asked me before, I would have told you that the streetcar wasn’t coming back. But now I can say it with more conviction.
by Carl Ballard — ,
If this piece was written by anyone but Lou Guzzo (his archives are funky, scroll down to March 17), I’d assume it was satire on the hype around the NFL draft. For Guzzo, I think he thinks it’s a good idea.
Why Not Draft Opera Singers, Actors Like the NFL Does It?
Because it’s a terrible idea. Because nobody thinks it’s unfair that the best opera singers go to the best operas? I’m going to feel bad making fun of this if it’s actually satire.*
I’ve been an incurable football nut almost since birth, but even I have the feeling that the annual shindig called the National Football League draft is terribly overdone as entertainment, despite the valiant efforts of the league and the various owners to make it seem like the rebirth of old-time vaudeville.
Sure. Fans only have 16 games and a relatively short playoff, and they love the game, so they get excited when things like the draft, the combine, and the when next season’s schedule comes out. That’s fine: if there’s a market for it, let people watch it. People get excited about all sorts of things.
After all, what on earth is so exciting about watching an annual supermarket for excessively high priced human beef? Why in the world don’t we get that hysterical, say, over drafting talent in many other walks of life. Let’s say, grand opera, for instance. I can just hear the announcer at a Grand Opera “draft” now:
Why don’t we get hyst… Why… don’t we get that hysterical over drafting opera singers? For starters, we can’t really get excited about an event that doesn’t happen. Second, the event doesn’t happen because the operas don’t compete against each other in a league so there wouldn’t be anyone to organize the draft. And third even if there was an opera league, singers can go wherever they want to perform.
“And now, folks, please give me your undivided attention. Here is the announcement we’ve all been waiting for. Speight Jenkins, general manager of the Seattle Opera Company, will step up to the microphone and announce his first pick from among the tenors. Speight….”
Does Lou Guzzo think the NFL drafts by position? Otherwise, why would he have a pick among the tenors? Is this satire? Isn’t satire supposed to be funny?
“Ladies and gentlemen of the opera world, it gives me the greatest pleasure to report that our first draft choice is Mario Lungbuster, lyric tenor from the Cincinnati Conservatory! Mr. Lungbuster, will you please come up here to the microphone so I can introduce you properly.”
Was there any point of this paragraph?
(Can you hear the audience cheering and shouting “Bravo! at the top of the operatic registers?)
No.
The announcer returns for a moment: “Mr. Jenkins! Mr. Jenkins! Will you please answer a few questions for our TV and radio audiences? You can? Good! OK. Here’s one from a woman in our audience. She wants to know why you selected Mario in the very first round — and can you afford to sign him to a contract?”
It sounds like this plan would make opera worse.
Mr. Jenkins: “Well, our regular tenor is still recovering from rib fractures suffered when he tried lifting the well-built soprano from the sofa in ‘La Traviata,’ and then a day later he really aggravated the injury when he fell off his horse in ‘Aida,’ but managed to finish the opera in great pain. We need a backup dramatic tenor.
“Mario is just the ticket. He’s short on experience, but he proved he knows how to go for the high notes without straining his, if you’ll pardon the expression, stomach muscles. Besides, he has well developed arm and back muscles so he’ll be able to hoist those overweight sopranos when they lean on him in the middle of a tearful aria. Oh, and to answer the second part of your question, we can afford to sign Mario to a long-term contract, but we may not have enough in the bank to pay for all his bills from his chiropractor.”
Wouldn’t anyone in a draft by necessity be short on experience? Also, Lou doesn’t seem to realize that this is a set of horrible jokes at the expense of made up people.
OK, enough already. In the same way, the symphony might use its No. 1 draft choice to replace its fumbling flutist with a Juilliard All-Star. Or, if you want to consider what the draft might do for theatrical companies, the Reportory Theater might gamble on a matinee idol who led the nation in free passes at the U.S.C. School of Drama.
Or they could pay a flutist or an actor on the market like they do now. There’s no advantage to this plan.
Say, you know something’ A culture draft might not be such a bad idea, at that, all jokes and hilarity aside. Just give me a minute, will you please? I have to make an important phone call. Dum-de dum-dum…. Hello, Seattle Opera? Would you please get me the boss, Mr. Speight Jenkins?
What hilarity? Is “Dum-de-dum-dum” the sound phones make in Guzzo’s world? Do the people answering the phones at the Seattle Opera need to be told the name of their artistic director? Like all Lou Guzzo pieces this left me with more questions than answers.