Obama | Romney |
94.4% probability of winning | 5.6% probability of winning |
Mean of 302 electoral votes | Mean of 236 electoral votes |
Obama has made a big jump in his chances to be reelected with this new analysis.
A couple of things. This analysis only includes polls through early Friday morning. Also, I am using a 7-day “current poll” window at this point in the race. Third, after missing most of the week, I cannot go through the state-by-state polls today. And last, there are some older polls I’ve added but not included in this list. The list may also exclude one or two new polls. You can always see what polls are used for each state from the big state table below.
Here are (most of) the new polls I’ve included:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
CO | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1246 | 2.9 | 50.1 | 46.7 | O+3.4 |
CO | Rasmussen | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
CO | CNN/OR | 26-Oct | 31-Oct | 764 | 3.5 | 50 | 48 | O+2 |
FL | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1146 | 3.0 | 48.9 | 49.8 | R+0.9 |
FL | Gravis Marketing | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 549 | 4.2 | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
FL | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 687 | 3.7 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
FL | CNN/OR | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 770 | 3.5 | 48 | 48 | tie |
FL | SurveyUSA | 25-Oct | 27-Oct | 595 | 4.1 | 47.1 | 47.1 | tie |
GA | SurveyUSA | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 574 | 4.2 | 43.7 | 52.0 | R+8.3 |
IL | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1198 | 3.0 | 57 | 41 | O+16 |
IN | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 753 | — | 42.2 | 55.4 | R+13.1 |
IA | Rasmussen | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 49 | R+1 |
IA | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1174 | 3.0 | 48.8 | 47.3 | O+1.5 |
IA | PPP | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 676 | 3.8 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
IA | Marist | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 1142 | 3.0 | 50 | 44 | O+6 |
MA | Suffolk | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 63.0 | 31.2 | O+31.8 |
MA | Boston Globe | 24-Oct | 28-Oct | 583 | 4.1 | 56 | 39 | O+17 |
MA | UNH | 24-Oct | 28-Oct | 583 | 4.1 | 52 | 38 | O+14 |
MI | Glengarif Group | 27-Oct | 29-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 47.5 | 45.0 | O+2.5 |
MI | EPIC/MRA | 26-Oct | 29-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
MN | SurveyUSA | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 574 | 4.2 | 50 | 43 | O+7 |
MO | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1217 | 2.9 | 42.2 | 53.8 | R+11.6 |
MT | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 799 | — | 42.7 | 50.4 | R+7.8 |
NE | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 761 | — | 38.8 | 58.1 | R+19.3 |
NE2 | Wiese Res | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 679 | 3.8 | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
NV | SurveyUSA | 23-Oct | 29-Oct | 1212 | 2.9 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
NH | Marist | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 1013 | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
NC | PPP | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 730 | 3.6 | 49 | 49 | tie |
NC | SurveyUSA | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 628 | 3.8 | 45 | 50 | R+5 |
ND | Mason-Dixon | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 40 | 54 | R+14 |
ND | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 752 | — | 37.8 | 54.7 | R+16.9 |
OH | PPP | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
OH | Ohio Poll | 25-Oct | 30-Oct | 1182 | 2.9 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
OH | SurveyUSA | 26-Oct | 29-Oct | 603 | 4.1 | 47.5 | 44.9 | O+2.6 |
OH | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 765 | — | 49.0 | 46.3 | O+2.7 |
OH | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 718 | 3.7 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
OR | Elway | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 405 | 5.0 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
OR | Hoffman Res | 24-Oct | 25-Oct | 615 | — | 47 | 42 | O+5 |
PA | Keystone Poll | 23-Oct | 28-Oct | 547 | 4.2 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
RI | WPRI | 24-Oct | 27-Oct | 601 | 4.0 | 54 | 33 | O+21 |
TX | U TX | 15-Oct | 21-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 39 | 55 | R+16 |
VA | Gravis Marketing | 26-Oct | 26-Oct | 625 | 3.9 | 48 | 48 | tie |
VA | Quinnipiac | 23-Oct | 28-Oct | 1074 | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
VA | Roanoke College | 23-Oct | 26-Oct | 638 | 4.0 | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
WA | SurveyUSA | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 555 | 4.2 | 54 | 40 | O+14 |
WA | Washington Poll | 18-Oct | 31-Oct | 632 | 3.9 | 56.4 | 35.9 | O+20.5 |
WI | PPP | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 825 | 3.4 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
WI | Rasmussen | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
WI | Marist | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 1065 | 3.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
WI | St. Nobert | 25-Oct | 29-Oct | 1065 | 5.0 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
WI | Marquette | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 1243 | 2.8 | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 94,381 times and Romney wins 5,619 times (including the 384 ties). Obama received (on average) 302 to Romney’s 236 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 94.4% probability of winning and Romney would have a 5.6% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2011 to 02 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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