I’m both inspired and a little pissed off about Bob Ferguson supporting an assault weapons ban. On the one hand, it’s well past time, and I hope his push for this adds to the call. I suppose it’s possible to get something passed depending on the makeup of the next legislature.
On the other hand, it’s a relatively small amount of the gun deaths. And we’re going to need a lot more wholesale change than nibbling around the edges.
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There have only been 18 new polls since the analysis last week. (Actually, there have been a flood of polls done using internet panels, but I still refuse to include those polls.) Most notible among the polls is an Emerson poll from Maine that includes sub-polls for Maine’s two congressional districts. This is only the second pollster providing the CD breakdowns, and both have found the state split.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,991 times and Donald Trump wins 9 times. Clinton received (on average) 340 to Trump’s 198 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than 0.1% probability of winning. This is Trump’s best performance in months.
Over the past week, we have seen the national polls tighten up a bit. Even though most polling is done in swing states, it still takes some time for analyses based on state head-to-head polls to catch up with national polling. We should expect to see a shift toward Trump.
That said, the electoral map is still strongly favoring Clinton. It is difficult, right now, to see a path for Trump to achieve 269 EVs.
Here are a few state notes.
Georgia had five current polls for the previous analyses, but four have “aged-out” and now we have one current poll. As a result, the state has gone from 50.1% probability of Clinton taking the state to 52.7% for Trump. In other words, the state is still a dead tie.
In Iowa, one poll has aged out and two new polls have been added, one with Clinton up +2% and one with Trump up +5%. The net result is that Iowa has moved from 56.4% probability of Clinton winning the state in the last analysis to a 51% probability of Trump taking the state now. It is a toss-up.
The new Maine poll has moved Clinton chances of winning the state from 100% down to a 97.3% probability. Clinton’s chances in Maine’s 1st CD has gone from 97% to 99.9%. And in Maine’s 2nd CD, Trump’s chances have gone from 54% to a 76.2% probability of taking the state now.
This week we lose one Missouri poll and gain a new one with Trump up +9%. The net result is that the state goes from Trump winning with a 93.9% probability to a 99.6% probability of taking the state.
We have no new polls in Nevada this week, but one poll has aged out, moving Nevada from an 84.1% chance for Clinton to a 64.3% chance.
A surprisingly close new poll in New Jersey suggests that Trump has a 21.8% chance of taking the state. That said, Clinton has won every NJ poll to date.
In Ohio, two of last week’s five polls age out. This has moved Clinton’s chances down from 90% to an 82% chance of taking the state.
A new Rhode Island poll is surprisingly close. Trump now has gone from almost no chance of taking the state to a 30% chance. Still the polling overall favors Clinton.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
It always strikes me when I read about people rolling coal how right environmentalists are. This is how you protest? This? I mean it’s every asshole who shouts nonsense at a bicyclist or rides a bit (or a lot) too close seemingly intentionally. But pretending that instead of being an asshole, they’re protesting, something. It’s like, oh, how can global warming be real if I’m this much of an asshole?
As the summer comes to a close, we swing into full political season. So, please join us for discussion and a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. All are welcomed—no extreme vetting or forced deportations involved.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Next Monday, the newly reactivated Shoreline chapter meets.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Billy Bragg: There Is Power In A Union
U2: Maggie’s Farm
(Live version of Roy Zimmerman’s “Unions are to blame.”)
Paul Robeson: Joe Hill
Rush: Working Man
Pete Seeger Which Side Are You On
Natalie Merchant: Which side are you on
Dropkick Murphys: Workers Song
Strawbs: Part of the union
And now, a message from the President:
Luke 19:29-34
As he approached Bethphage and Bethany at the hill called the Mount of Olives, he sent two of his disciples, saying to them, “Go to the village ahead of you, and as you enter it, you will find a colt tied there, which no one has ever ridden. Untie it and bring it here. If anyone asks you, ‘Why are you untying it?’ say, ‘The Lord needs it.’”Those who were sent ahead went and found it just as he had told them. As they were untying the colt, its owners asked them, “Why are you untying the colt?”
They replied, “The Lord needs it.”
Exodus 20:15
Thou shalt not steal.
Discuss.
Larry Wilmore does the Late Show.
Stephen: Are Russian hackers targeting American voters.
Thom: Exposing the Koch’s environment corruption.
Stephen with Congressman John Lewis (who goes surfing).
The 2016 White Nationalist Party Campaign Drumpf Campaign:
Stephen: It’s finally time to cut off that Weiner.
Adam Ruins Everything: Why you don’t need 8 glasses of water a day.
Seth Meyers: A closer look at Clinton’s and Drumpf’s debate prep:
David Pakman: Overall, life is much better for most people under President Obama.
Farron Cousins: Sarah Palin’s head injury made her even more crazy.
The Flames in Maine Fall Mainly on LePage:
Seth Meyers: A closer look at extreme weather events and climate change.
Stephen: Scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation.
Jimmy Dore: Political news of the week.
Weiner’s Wares:
Sam Seder: Shepard Smith goes rogue on FAUX—by casually NOT lying about voter suppression.
Farron Cousins: Surprise! Republican states are the real welfare queens.
Mental Floss: 25 parenting life hacks.
Sports Patriots:
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Stephen: Sarah Palin crashes and burns.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Seattle Transit Blog have published their endorsement of ST3. On the one hand, this is probably the most predictable endorsement of the campaign season. On the other hand, it’s such a refreshing change of pace from The Seattle Times’ uninformed screeds or Reuven Carlyle, all of a sudden and way too late, deciding he wants different financing.
Of course, I agree with them. It’s a great thing to be able to travel so easily to the U District and to South Seattle. Expanding the rail system is exactly the right thing to do.
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We now have about 20 new polls since the previous analysis last week. There Sec. Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in mean electoral votes 347 to 199. If the election had been held last week we would expect Clinton to win with near certainty.
The new polls come largely from swing states, and include: 2 AZ, 1 FL, 1 MI, 1 MO, 2 NC, 1 NH, 1 NY, 2 OH, 4 PA, 1 VA, 4 WI, and 1 WV.
A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, gives Clinton all 100,000 wins. Clinton received (on average) 350 to Trump’s 188 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with greater than 99% probability.
Basically, the newest polls don’t change the picture much. The only state to flip is Georgia, that went from Trump with a 72.5% probability of taking to state to Clinton with a 50.1% chance. In other words, Georgia looks like a toss-up. The change isn’t because of new polling. Rather, one old poll “dated out”. Frankly, Clinton’s standing is being driven by one poll from JMC Analytics that has her up +7%. I suspect this poll is an outlier.
In Missouri, a new PPP poll has Trump up +6%, which improve his chances of taking the state from 79.4% last week to 93.9% this week.
In North Carolina we lost one old poll and gained two new polls. The net result is no change: Clinton still has an 84% chance of taking the state now.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
I don’t. I mean. What?
Obviously, we’re not going to just ship Seattle’s homeless to, like, some island. I’m not sure there are any around that would really fit the bill. The San Juans? Blake Island? Can Seattle just acquire an island? Would we build an artificial island in the Sound just for that like in China or Dubai? All the time and effort to build housing, sewage, roads, transit, etc. to the island could be better used if you want to help Seattle’s homeless. Or just Seattle in general.
Also, it’s fucking cruel. If homeless people want to live on an island, they can right now. But to separate them from community and family because, reasons, doesn’t seem like it will help anyone.
I know this is one person who I hadn’t heard of before, and their idea is being soundly rejected. But on the other hand, they do hold leadership in the county Democrats.
Today, G.O.P. Presidential Nominee Donald J. Trump will hold a rally in Everett, WA. So, think of our gathering of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally as the anti-rally “safe space.” No play-dough, bubbles or puppies, but there will be plenty to drink. All are welcomed—no extreme vetting involved.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
It’s sort of amazing how little King County is paying to make its own EpiPens. The article makes it clear that in their current form, they couldn’t be for wide use. But it seems like the free market would mean that some company or other org could step up and put something into wider use. Or maybe King County could figure out how to make them easier to use and sell them. It seems like a good use of my tax dollars if the private sector can’t step up.
Mark 6:35
By this time it was late in the day, so his disciples came to him. “This is a remote place,” they said, “and it’s already very late.
Discuss.
Russ Feingold hits Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on student loans.
Conan and Sen. Franken: Humor in politics.
Obama to Congress: Louisiana may need more funding.
Thom: Tribal rights & the Dakota access pipeline.
What the polls do to us.
Clinton Makes History:
Farron Cousins: Alt Right—Just another name for mainstream Republican.
The Other Washington episode 6.5: Paid sick leave.
Thom: The secret list of those who have voted twice.
Colbert: Real Tim Kaine reacts to fake Tim Kaine.
Run The Jewels: “Nobody Speak”.
White House: West Wing Week.
The 2016 White Nationalist- Drumpf-Fest:
Bassem Youssef: The ISIS Hunter.
David Pakman: The FAUX sex scandal explodes.
Young Turks: Gov. Paul LePage leaves homophobic meltdown voicemail.
America’s worst idea.
Pres. Obama celebrates 100 years of National Parks.
Thom: Voter suppression and the mathematical proof.
Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros, “Faux News a sex-fueled, Playboy mansion-like cult
Tim Kaine jams with Jon Batiste and Stay Human.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
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The previous analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton with nearly 100% probability of beating Donald Trump in an election held last week. Her average Electoral College total was 337 to Trump’s 201.
Since last week’s analysis, there have been 22 new polls released in 16 states. We have three new polls in North Carolina, two in Florida, a pair in Michigan, and two in Virginia. Note that I did not include a recent poll from South Carolina because it was commissioned by the state Democratic Party. I explain my inclusion and exclusion criteria for polls in the FAQ.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins all 100,000 times. This time, Clinton received (on average) 347 to Trump’s 191 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a very close to a 100% probability of beating Trump.
Clinton is now in an extremely strong position. Even if she wins only the “safe Clinton” and “strong Clinton” states (i.e. darkest shades of blue) and loses all of the states that “lean Clinton” or are “weak Clinton” (i.e. medium or light shade of blue), she wins the election with 294 electoral votes. That is, Clinton still wins the election without Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon and Ohio. I should add that nobody seriously expects Clinton to lose Oregon; the most recent poll we have in the state is from mid-June, and has Clinton leading Trump by a few points.
A few things have changed since last week that bumps up Clinton’s electoral vote total.
In Iowa and old Docking poll aged out and a new poll was released giving us three current polls. The newest has Clinton up by +2%, one has Trump up by 1.2% and the third is a dead tie. The net result is that Clinton won 57.2% of the simulated elections suggesting she is slightly favored, but statistically, Iowa is a tie.
In Missouri we lose two old polls, including one with Trump up by +9.9%. The three current polls have Trump up: +1%, +2% and +3%. As a result, Trump dropped from a 91% to a 84% chance of winning the state.
For the previous analysis we only had an old poll for New Mexico that had Clinton up by about 3%. But a new PPP poll in the state has Clinton up 40% to 31% (+9%). Consequently Clinton moves from a 76% probability of winning the state last week to a 99% this week.
North Carolina moves to a lighter shade of blue this week. Last week we had three current polls with Clinton up by +9% and +2% and Trump up by +4%. Three new polls are added this week that has Clinton up +2%, Trump up +10%, and a tie. The net result is that Clinton went from a 91% probability of winning the state last week to an 84% chance of taking it this week.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!