Since my previous analysis, nearly 50 new state head-to-head polls have been released in the match-up between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Actually, many more state head-to-head polls have been released, but they are based on internet samples, so they don’t qualify by the rules for poll inclusion.) The polls were all taken before and just up to the first debate on Monday night. Subsequent analysis will reveal what effect, if any, the first debate may have had on the race.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 79,245 times and Trump wins 20,755 times (including the 1,915 ties). Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 79.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 20.8% probability of winning. This is a tiny bump in probability (+0.3%) for Clinton relative to last week.
In Colorado, four new polls have been added that give a tiny bump to Trump. He went from a 48.8% chance last week to a 51.4% chance now. The state is, essentially, tied. The polling history, suggests a real change in Trump’s favor over the past three months.
New polls in Maine confirm what we already knew. Clinton would likely win now, but CD-1 would go to Clinton and CD-2 would go to Trump.
A new poll in Minnesota brings some certainty to that state. Clinton went from an 88% probability of taking the state last week to 95% this week.
We finally have our first polling for Nebraska’s congressional districts. NE-1 and 3 are solidly Trump. NE-2, which went for Obama in 2008, doesn’t look like it will split off from the rest of the state this election, with an 84% probability of going to Trump right now.
This week we gain three new North Carolina polls and lose two older ones. The three new polls favor Clinton, so the state has gone from 68.7% probability for Trump last week to a 52.2% chance for Clinton this week. North Carolina is tied.
With the loss of two, and the gain of three Ohio polls, Trump edges up from 90.3% to a 94.6% chance of taking the state.
Washington finally gets a new poll, and it is surprisingly close. The evidence suggests Clinton would only take the state now with an 87.7% probability. Even so, Trump has yet to win a Washington state poll.
Finally, Wisconsin loses two old polls and gains a new one. The race looks surprisingly close with Clinton dropping from an 98.4% to a 90.8% chance of taking the state. As with Washington, Trump has yet to win a Wisconsin poll. The race does seem to tighten up in recent weeks.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 278 electoral votes with a 3.33% probability
- 289 electoral votes with a 2.85% probability
- 287 electoral votes with a 2.77% probability
- 284 electoral votes with a 2.49% probability
- 274 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
- 307 electoral votes with a 2.33% probability
- 298 electoral votes with a 2.28% probability
- 293 electoral votes with a 2.25% probability
- 263 electoral votes with a 2.17% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 1.98% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 79.2%, Trump wins 20.8%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 288.2 (21.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 249.8 (21.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 287 (250, 332)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 251 (206, 288)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.