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Clinton	Trump
99.3% probability of winning	0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 325 electoral votes	Mean of 213 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by an average of 309 to 229 electoral votes, giving Clinton a 97% probability of winning an election held then.

There have been 33 new polls released since then, many of them from electorally “interesting” states. So now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,315 times and Trump wins 685 times (including the 169 ties). Clinton received (on average) 325 to Trump’s 213 electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Clinton to win with a 99.3% probability and Trump with a 0.7% probability.

A number of states are worth examining in more detail.

Florida has a couple of new polls and three polls that “aged out” from the last analysis. One poll has the candidates tied up, and the other has Clinton up +4.4. The net result is that Clinton’s probability of winning has gone from 37% to 67%. This is still very nearly a tie, but the state moves from light red to light blue.

The raw polling results paint a picture of a state that “swings.”

[Read more…]

I’m going on vacation pretty soon. I plan to keep up the contingent of nonsense Open Threads, and then hopefully when I get back, to start posting more.

Anyway, do you have any recommendations for light summer reading? Beach read or airplane. I have this on hold from the library, but I’m not sure it’s going to arrive in time.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Not sure why, but this this thread seems to have been eaten. Here we go again: I enjoyed Seafair, but would prefer it not have the Blue Angels. I also took a tour of one of the Navy ships. It was interesting, but I’d prefer to live in a world where we didn’t have any.

Deuteronomy 32:42
I will make mine arrows drunk with blood, and my sword shall devour flesh; and that with the blood of the slain and of the captives, from the beginning of revenges upon the enemy.

Discuss.

Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.

Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.

The Devil and Stephen Colbert:

Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.

The Drumpf Implosion:

• Jonathan Mann: Drumpf Remix
• Stephen with the F WERD
• Drumpf, Putin, and Russia
• Our Country
• Jimmy Dore: Fareed Zakaria calls Drumpf a ‘bullshit artist’ on CNN
• Young Turks: “I’m afraid the election’s going to be rigged.”
• Sam Seder: Drumpf inexplicably lists his worst campaign gaffes during a rally
• David Pakman: Drumpf suggests US-Russia alliance to fight ISIS (like the one that has existed for a year).
• Young Turks: Drumpf makes up makes up Iran story after watching FAUX News
• James Corden: Donald Drumpf’s ‘I’m about to eat’ face
• Stephen: Obama has a scandal, but Drumpf spoke today.
• Drumpf Ghostwriter Blasts Art of the Deal in hilarious Tweet
• David Pakman: Dangerous or stupid? Drumpf brags about watching “top secret” “Iran” video
• Stephen: Forget what you heard…there’s good news from the Drumpf campaign.
• Young Turks: Is Melania Drumpf an illegal immigrant?
• Liberal Viewer: Scariest Donald Drumpf fact yet?
• Young Turks: Draft dodger Drumpf gets purple heart.
• Sam Seder: Draft dodger Drumpf accepts some poor guy’s Purple Heart
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Melania’s immigration problem.
• Stephen: The returns of the Drumpf bully kid
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on Harrisburg, PA
• Stephen: Cartoon Drumpf might skip debates.
• Sam Seder: Obama states that Drumpf is unfit.
• James Corden and Denis Leary: Drumpf’s an asshole:

• Seth Meyers: Stay out of it, Democrats
• Young Turks: Drumpf plummets in new polls following series of disasters.
• Stephen: How Drumpf eats KFC
• Farron Cousins: GOP racism and oppression didn’t start with Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Lunatic Drumpf spox forced to backtrack…
• Captured
• Sam Seder: Drumpf asked a foreign policy advisor 3 times why we don’t use nuclear weapons
• Maddow: Whatever his faults, the GOP is letting down Mr. Drumpf
• Young Turks: Drumpf asks about using Nukes.
• Jimmy Dore: Prominent GOPer wonders why there aren’t more defectors.
• Thom: Obama says, “Dump Drumpf”
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf is already making excuses for his defeat..
• Sam Seder: Drumpf boots a baby.
• Watch Drumpf supporters make other decisions
• Stephen: For Donald Drumpf, every day is opposite day.
• Young Turks: Crying baby.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Drumpf’s very bad week
• Red State Update: Drumpf Kicks Baby Out! Drumpf Won’t Endorse Paul Ryan! Drumpf Wants Nukes!
• David Pakman: “GOP Nominates Dangerous Insane Person, Now Panic Because He’s Dangerously Insane”
• Drumpf Danger
• Jimmy Kimmel: Donald Drumpf’s remarks are well prepared.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf thinks Rick Scott has zika under control.
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf wants to know why we can’t use nukes.
• Paul Manafort was in a meeting that hasn’t happened yet So he knows Drumpf didn’t ask about nukes
• Mark Fiore: Drumpf’s ultimate sacrifice
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf’s behavior sends GOP into panic
• Stephen: Is there ANYONE Drumpf won’t attack?
• David Pakman: Why won’t Drumpf release his tax returns?

Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.

Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.

Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!

MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:

Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:

• Sam Seder: NC & WI courts strike racist voting laws.
• Farron Cousins: Repressive Republican woting laws are getting decimated in court

Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?

Can a third-party candidate ever become President?

Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.

Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I like Bob Ferguson and his work against Comcast being assholes. But I’m not sure Batman is the best analogy. Bruce Wayne really should be using his money on other things if he wants the best return on investment. Ferguson is pretty much doing best for the customers. I’d rather read about Batman (no offense, Bob) but live in a state with Ferguson as AG (no offense Bruce).

Clinton	Trump
97.0% probability of winning	3.0% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes	Mean of 229 electoral votes

There have been eight new polls released since last week’s analysis, including PA, VA, NV, a pair in GA and a pair in AZ. The previous analysis had Hillary Clinton with a 97.8% probability of winning and election then. Donald Trump had a 2.2% of winning.

This week, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,010 times and Trump wins 2,990 times (including the 459 ties). Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.0% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.0% probability of winning.

There aren’t many changes with only eight polls in six states, but a few are worth noting.

In Arizona, three polls have aged out and there are two new polls, one with Clinton up +2 and the other with Trump up +7.5. The net is a small bump for Trump. This is similar in Georgia, where two new polls (Trump +0.2 and Trump +3) join an existing poll (Trump + 2) to boast Trump’s chances in the state.

We have one new poll in Nevada (Clinton +1) that, combined with two existing polls (Trump +5 and Clinton +4), bumps Clinton’s chances. Trump went from 68% probability down to a 59% probability. Essentially, Nevada is a tie.

Finally, Virgina has one new poll (Trump +4) with three existing polls (Clinton +5, Clinton +7, Trump +0.4). Clinton’s probability has dropped slightly from 94% to 82%.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Were the primary election results everything you hoped for? I’m glad in the 7th, we’ll get 2 fairly liberal Democratic candidates. We’ll wait to see what two. I was hoping for a better turnout for Angie Marx, but maybe it was inevitable when a legislator stepped in. In any event, more results will come in over then next few weeks.

It’s election night in Washington state. So fill out your ballot, drop it off in the nearest ballot box, and then join us for an evening of electoral erudition and political pontification at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Hey, turn in your primary ballot. Postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow. If you’re in King County, you can find your drop off locations here. But for goodness sake, please vote. The trolls here get a vote, so at least cancel one of their dumb asses out.

Ephesians 6:5
Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ.

Discuss.

Colbert: Political week in review.

Young Turks: GOP loses it over Tim Kaine’s lapel pin.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Glass Ceiling Broken:

• Stephen: Hillary breaks the glass ceiling.
• Daily Show: The DNC’s rocky start.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at DNC Day 2:

• Stephen: an herstoric achievement–240 years in the making.
• James Corden: First Lady Obama wins the DNC opening night.
• Susie Sampson: Drump’s Campaign Manager on Donald Trump’s Penis
• The Late Show “Fight Song” feat.
• Songify Hillary’s historic night.
• Stephen: Obama, Biden and Kaine speak on night 3 of the DNC
• Maddow: Obama speech ‘politically priceless’ for Clinton
• Thom: Drumpf gets his talking points from Storm Front
• Trevor: Hillary’s acceptance speech.
• Bill Maher: New Rule — The notorious HRC
• Young Turks: Obama’s speech was so good even conservatives liked it.
• Stephen: The last O’Malley supporter
• Young Turks: Best lines from Hillary’s speech.
• ONN Lesser DNC Speeches: Walking in on Hillary and Bill
• Stephen: Clinton overcomes insurgent “fart-in,” accepts Democratic nomination:

• Hasan Minhaj: Why Hillary Clinton needs to beat Donald Drumpf
• Hillary prepares for her acceptance speech.
• Stephen Colbert and John Oliver Chat about Tim Kaine
• Daily Show: DNC Wrap-up
• Sam Seder: Michael Bloomberg rips Drumpf to shreds.
• Jimmy Kimmel: Bill’s sexy DNC speech
• PsychoSuperMom: “I’m With her”
• James Corden’s Glass ceiling and tip of the day for Bill-O-the-Clown
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Hillary Accepting
• Stephen: Cartoon Hillary answers Republican questions.
• Mark Fiore: The Kremlin Convention
• Stephen: Hillary’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day

The actor that every politician needs at rallies.

Mental Floss: 39 facts about the middle ages.

How a city’s economy depends on airports.

Young Turks: Republicans go BONKERS over Bradley Cooper (Sniper) at DNC.

What FAUX News aired Instead of the speech by fallen Muslim soldier’s father.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: Trump and Clinton puppets.

The Drumpfsputin Affair:

• Stephen: A question about Drumpf
• Seth knows why Drumpf won’t release his tax returns.
• Samantha Bee: Midnight in America.
• David Pakman: Drumpf takes 5 positions on minimum wage in 45 seconds.
• Maddow: Drumpf is a “unique and present danger”…
• Young Turks: Father of fallen American soldier delivers powerful speech against Drumpf
• Sam Seder: Drumpf wants to “hit [DNC] speakers so hard”.
• Thom: If Drumpf can’t handle a mean tweet, should he have the nuclear codes?
• Donald Drumpf is not allowed in America…according to Donald Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf’s response to DNC is classic PROJECTION
• Swagasaurus: Fuckboy Drumpf.:

• David Pakman: Drumpf defends serial harasser Roger Ailes.
• Thom: Pence may be more dangerous than Drumpf
• Young Turks: Drumpf asks Russia to commit crime against political opponent
• Sam Seder: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s Drumpf burn is beautiful.
• David Pakman: Hundreds say Drumpf doesn’t pay his bills
• Nightly Show: Backstage with Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf is not in favor of freedom of the press
• Slate: Counting arbitrary things in Drumpf’s speech
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Trumpf on napping.
• Trevor: Drumpf’s shady ties to Russia
• Samantha Bee: Fear mongering
• Young Turks: What is the best way to attach Drumpf?
• David Pakman: Drumpf denies meeting Putin after bragging about meeting Putin
• Try on a Drumpf hat and tell us how it feels.
• YG and Nipsey Hussle: “Fuck Donald Trump”
• Young Turks: Dumbshit Drumpf takes a swing at Tim Kaine (D), hits Tom Kean (R)
• Bad Lip Reading: Cruz talks Drumpf.
• Kimmel: The Troompa Loompas on hacking
• Young Turks: DNC speeches gave Drumpf a Twittergasm

Seth Meyers with Lenny Kravits on the Clintons.

Young Turks: Voter ID laws struck down.

Stephen: What’s the nicest thing you can say about your opposing party’s candidate.

How did the U.S. end up with a 2-party system?

Young Turks: All cops walk in Freddie Gray case.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Capt. Khan’s parents remember their son

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
97.8% probability of winning	2.2% probability of winning
Mean of 312 electoral votes	Mean of 226 electoral votes

Since the previous analysis, ten new polls have been released. Additionally, I fixed the Vermont poll that had Sec. Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s numbers reversed. As it happens a more current poll for Vermont was released.

Only a couple of the new polls were still in the field this week, but many of them were in the field last week, so lets call this the Post-RNC, Pre-DNC benchmark.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,843 times and Trump wins 2,157 times (including the 223 ties). Clinton received (on average) 312 to Trump’s 226 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.2% probability of winning.

Little has changed from the previous analysis. The most noticeable is Florida, which has decreased from a 56% chance for Clinton to a 37% chance. This reflects two older polls “aging out” and one new poll added. Trump leads in two of the three current polls. Here is the polling history, which makes Trump’s lead seem plausible:

The other noticeable change is New Hampshire’s shift from blue to red. An older ARG poll “aged out” and a new NH Journal poll has been added. The NH Journal poll has a surprisingly large +9.4% for Trump. The state has been close, but perhaps something about Trump has strongly resonated with NH voters. The polling history suggests this new poll is an outlier–Trump has not led in any of the previous 26 polls in NH, and suddenly he is up by nearly double digits.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Man, the last 2 days of the convention were also pretty great. Obama doing a greatest hits. Clinton doing a lot from her stump speech, but also some smart funny anti-Trump stuff. I thought listening to it that “No Donald, you don’t” was her in grandmother mode.

… I guess I should have checked the home page before I started writing the open thread. Oh well.