I’m buried this week, so this report will be brief. Let me first mention that I usually send out Tweets from @hominidviews with each poll I add to the database, and include a graph of the recent polling for the state. I also announce new analyses there, and sometimes offer quick previews when I don’t have time to do a full analysis. So follow me at @hominidviews for these updates.
Last week Donald Trump had made small gains over Sec. Hillary Clinton. Plenty of new polls have come—about 35—and many of these polls were conducted during at least part of Clinton’s “bad week.” Not surprisingly, Trump makes gains.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,242 times and Trump wins 3,758 times (including the 702 ties). The previous analysis had Clinton winning almost 100% of the simulated elections. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.8% probability of winning.
Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. This is substantially down from the 340 Clinton had last week, but still above the 270 threshold needed to win.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 307 electoral votes with a 3.94% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 3.76% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 3.19% probability
- 316 electoral votes with a 3.18% probability
- 309 electoral votes with a 3.04% probability
- 298 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 2.13% probability
- 301 electoral votes with a 2.06% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 96.2%, Trump wins 3.8%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 309.1 (20.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 228.9 (20.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 310 (266, 351)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 228 (187, 272)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.