There have only been 18 new polls since the analysis last week. (Actually, there have been a flood of polls done using internet panels, but I still refuse to include those polls.) Most notible among the polls is an Emerson poll from Maine that includes sub-polls for Maine’s two congressional districts. This is only the second pollster providing the CD breakdowns, and both have found the state split.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,991 times and Donald Trump wins 9 times. Clinton received (on average) 340 to Trump’s 198 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than 0.1% probability of winning. This is Trump’s best performance in months.
Over the past week, we have seen the national polls tighten up a bit. Even though most polling is done in swing states, it still takes some time for analyses based on state head-to-head polls to catch up with national polling. We should expect to see a shift toward Trump.
That said, the electoral map is still strongly favoring Clinton. It is difficult, right now, to see a path for Trump to achieve 269 EVs.
Here are a few state notes.
Georgia had five current polls for the previous analyses, but four have “aged-out” and now we have one current poll. As a result, the state has gone from 50.1% probability of Clinton taking the state to 52.7% for Trump. In other words, the state is still a dead tie.
In Iowa, one poll has aged out and two new polls have been added, one with Clinton up +2% and one with Trump up +5%. The net result is that Iowa has moved from 56.4% probability of Clinton winning the state in the last analysis to a 51% probability of Trump taking the state now. It is a toss-up.
The new Maine poll has moved Clinton chances of winning the state from 100% down to a 97.3% probability. Clinton’s chances in Maine’s 1st CD has gone from 97% to 99.9%. And in Maine’s 2nd CD, Trump’s chances have gone from 54% to a 76.2% probability of taking the state now.
This week we lose one Missouri poll and gain a new one with Trump up +9%. The net result is that the state goes from Trump winning with a 93.9% probability to a 99.6% probability of taking the state.
We have no new polls in Nevada this week, but one poll has aged out, moving Nevada from an 84.1% chance for Clinton to a 64.3% chance.
A surprisingly close new poll in New Jersey suggests that Trump has a 21.8% chance of taking the state. That said, Clinton has won every NJ poll to date.
In Ohio, two of last week’s five polls age out. This has moved Clinton’s chances down from 90% to an 82% chance of taking the state.
A new Rhode Island poll is surprisingly close. Trump now has gone from almost no chance of taking the state to a 30% chance. Still the polling overall favors Clinton.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 340 electoral votes with a 4.18% probability
- 346 electoral votes with a 4.05% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 3.63% probability
- 334 electoral votes with a 3.08% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.88% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.71% probability
- 352 electoral votes with a 2.67% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 347 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins >99.9%, Trump wins <0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 340.0 (16.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 198.0 (16.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 340 (306, 368)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 198 (170, 232)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.