HorsesAss.Org

The burden of proof is on President Bush’s shoulders if he wants to capture the undecided vote. And according to the latest tracking poll by Zogby International, it is quite a heavy burden:

Pollster John Zogby: “The two candidates go into the third and final debate tied. TIED!!! There is no major sub-group movement to report, but the undecided voters give us the real key to what is happening behind the scenes. Today’s three-day track reveals that only 11% of the undecided voters feel that President Bush deserves to be re-elected. That is the lowest figure yet. Two in five — 40%– feel it is time for someone new and 49% are undecided about his future.

In the first two debates, John Kerry has more than proved himself a reasonable alternative, and I fully expect him to do well again tonight. For Bush to create any sort of movement in the polls in his favor, he’s going to have to erase some of his negatives with undecided voters. After four years in office, I’m not sure he can.

Of course, the real story behind the polls is how they are underestimating voter turnout nationwide. While both sides have launched aggressive voter registration campaigns, new Democratic registrations have far outstripped GOP efforts in nearly all the “battleground” states. If D’s can turn out these new registrants, the vote will clearly break in Kerry’s favor.

So how’d my debate with Tim Eyman on the John Carlson Show go?

Let me start off by saying that I like John Carlson. I disagree with almost everything he has to say, but I like him. He’s smart, he’s engaging, and when you meet him in person, he just comes across as a really nice guy.

That said… man, did John have a bug up his ass today about the tribes. He didn’t really seem to want to talk about I-892, but rather seemed intent on backing me into a corner, forcing me to try to defend the tribes.

I wouldn’t oblige. I don’t work for the tribes, and I don’t support expanding gambling anywhere. Furthermore, I wasn’t about to waste my precious airtime talking about the tribes, when the important task is to inform voters that I-892 legalizes slot machines. I stayed on message as best I could, and then listened to John fill the final 20 minutes of the hour urging listeners to “stick it to the tribes.”

Personally, I think that sentiment is rather childish (and perhaps a touch racist), but… well… it’s John’s show. I can still like John, even if I disagree with him.

Oh yeah… Tim Eyman.

Tim spouted the usual bullshit: tax cuts, yada-yada-yada… tribal monopoly, yada-yada-yada… raised by wolves, yada-yada-yada. One thing Tim doesn’t like to talk about is slot machines — specifically the 18,225 slot machines I-892 would put into over 2000 neighborhood bars, restaurants and bowling alleys. That’s because if voters understand this, Tim would stand a better chance winning at slots than winning on the ballot.

I disagree with nearly everything Tim says, just like I do with John. But Tim, I’m not so sure that I like. Still, I suppose it might be interesting going out with him for a couple of beers (or an upside-down margarita) and talking one-on-one, with no reporters around. Though if I do, I’ll be sure to leave mention of it on my blog, just in case I disappear.

Anyway, the most interesting thing about my hour with Tim was that it only lasted 30 minutes. Half way through the show Tim had to bag out due to “cell phone trouble.” Yeah right.

See you Monday morning at 7 on the Mike Siegel Show, Tim. I suggest using a land line.

For those listening to me whoop Tim’s ass on the John Carlson Show, here are the links I promised:

Office of Financial Management: Potential Financial Impact of I-892
http://www.ofm.wa.gov/initiatives/2004/892/

TaxSanity.org: The Truth About Property Taxes in Washington State
http://www.taxsanity.org/media/TaxMyths.pdf

Vote No on I-892 Campaign
http://voteno892.org/

Tune in to The John Carlson Show this afternoon at 4pm, and listen to my strident punditry live! I’ll be debating failed watch salesman Tim Eyman on the total lack of merit behind his “Slots for Tots” initiative, I-892.

I’ll post a full report later today…

The sentiment was not unexpected, but I really loved the headline on today’s editorial in the Tacoma News Tribune opposing Initiative 892: “I-892: A ‘deal’ worthy of Don Corleone“.

Consider Tacoma’s predicament. It has roughly 100 pubs, taverns, lounges, etc., licensed for pulltabs, punchboards or social cardrooms. It receives about $1 million a year in taxes from these activities. If I-892 passes, Tacoma will have to shut down all the traditional games, taking a $1 million-a-year hit, or let itself be saturated with machines that turn vulnerable players into gambling addicts.

Pick your poison: The status quo will not be an option.

I-892 is an offer we must refuse.

Sinclair Broadcasting, a publicly-traded company that owns 62 TV stations nationwide, many in “swing states”, is ordering its stations to preempt prime-time network programming in the days leading up to the November 2 election, to air a film attacking John Kerry’s activism against the Vietnam War.

“Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal” was produced by a Washington Times reporter (ultra-conservative paper owned by Reverend Moon), and features former POWs accusing Kerry of worsening their ordeal by prolonging the war. I haven’t seen it (notice the honest disclaimer, Collin?), but it sounds to me like a 90-minute prime-time attack ad, broadcast free, on behalf of the Bush campaign.

It’s time to give the right-wing media a free-market ass whooping.

I urge you all to go to The Majority Report Radio and follow the links provided to protest this blatant misuse of the public-owned airwaves to help swing an election. Email their executives. Email their advertisers. And email their major shareholders.

I don’t use the word lightly, but this propagandistic subjugation of corporate media borders on fascism.

One of the reasons political consultants favor negative attack ads, is that they generally work. It’s a lot easier driving up your opponent’s negatives than it is driving up your own candidate’s positives. And requires a lot less smarts and creativity too.

Another reason is that it is so damn lucrative.

Take, for example, last month’s unprecedented $1.5 million smear campaign attacking Democratic attorney general candidate Deborah Senn… (almost) secretly financed by the US Chamber of Commerce. According to PDC reports, longtime GOP consultant Bruce Boram’s firm, Catalyst Consulting, was paid at least $20,000 for his efforts managing the campaign.

And what were his efforts? He didn’t actually write the ads, or book the airtime. No, he made a few phone calls, contracted out the real work, and pocketed an Eyman-like $10,000-a-month fee.

Wow. $10,000 a month to throw mud at Senn. That must be a full-time job, right? You know, like the $3,641 a month Boram also earns as Executive Director of United for Washington. Or the $4000 a month Boram was earning as chief political consultant and spokesman for GOP 8th district congressional candidate Dave Reichert.

(Speaking of Reichert, while he did fire Boram after the controversy broke, he’s still employing Boram coconspirator and United for Washington Associate Director Valerie Huntsberry. You still have some housecleaning to do, Dave.)

Nasty work, but nice pay if you can get it. Hell, for $20,000, even I would be tempted to run a smear campaign against Senn… and I voted for her.

Loose ethics and even looser money leads to dirty politics.

I’m not one to toot my own horn. No wait… yes I am.

Anyway, just remember what I’ve been saying about the Democrat’s electoral advantage in WA state, and why that means supposedly unscary GOP candidates like Dino Rossi and George Nethercutt aren’t going to make their races nearly as close as pundits have suggested.

Last week it was revealed that the national GOP had pulled a million dollars worth of ads on behalf the beleaguered Nethercutt campaign. And now Joel Connelly reports that the national R’s may be pulling the plug on a planned negative ad blitz against Christine Gregoire. That doesn’t bode too well for Dino.

But then, neither do his poll numbers.

Chris Vance and his GOPolitburo would like you to believe that Rossi is not the same breed of right-wing wacko as Craswell and Carlson before him. (Again, sorry John, but you’re not exactly a yellow line or an armadillo.) But remember, this is the same party that nominated the likes of Craswell and Carlson in the first place. So what the hell do they know?

It’s not the voters guys… it’s your candidates.

I’ve spoken at a few initiative forums recently, opposing I-892 before community groups and other organizations. These forums are extremely informative for voters, as they allow for an exchange, pro and con, while questions from the audience keep both sides honest. (Or at least in Tim’s case, clearly expose his dishonesty.)

Unfortunately there is are no such checks and balances on campaign literature and advertising, resulting in some really egregious lies… of omission, and otherwise.

All the initiative campaigns will tell you that their measure will pass because it is popular with voters. So explain to me, for example, why the current TV ads for Referendum 55, which authorizes the creation of charter schools, doesn’t bother to mention um… charter schools?

What a weasly ad. Of course voters are concerned about failing schools. Of course we want to make our schools better. But if we thought charter schools were the answer, we wouldn’t have rejected them the last couple times they were on the ballot.

Charter school proponents know this, and so they neglect to mention what exactly it is R-55 does. Informed solely by these TV ads, voters would think they are simply being asked to vote for better schools. Now that’s a winning proposition.

The Initiative 892 campaign is similarly deceptive. I-892 legalizes slot machines, and puts them into over 2000 bars, restaurants and bowling alleys scattered through nearly every community in the state. It would be the most massive expansion of gambling in state history, and would dramatically increase access to the most addictive form of gambling every devised.

Of course, the campaign’s yard signs and literature don’t happen to mention slot machines or gambling. Why? Polls consistently show that voters are strongly opposed to expanding gambling, especially with slot machines, and especially, especially in their own neighborhood.

That’s why all the campaign ever talks about is lower property taxes. That’s why the gambling industry hired Tim Eyman to front the initiative, because love him or hate him (or really hate him) Eyman is a well known brand name associated with tax cut initiatives.

The gambling industry also knows that Tim has no problem with outright lies and distortions. His promised $400 million tax cut? Pulled out of thin air… he’s never once provided the data to support his projection, yet he has the gall to dismiss much lower projections from the Gambling Commission and the OFM as “laughable.” His much repeated statement that I-892 saves the “average property owner” $219.68 a year? Again… based on what?

Not to mention the fact that “average” savings are meaningless anyway… it’s median savings that illustrate the typical impact, and as the Tacoma News Tribune points out in today’s editorial opposing I-892, that would amount to about $5 a month. (Probably less.)

Now I know what some of you are thinking. This is politics, and we should expect campaigns to emphasize their strengths, while hushing up their weaknesses. But when it comes to initiatives and referendum — complex pieces of legislation — it makes for a really crappy debate that more often than not, fails to educate voters enough to make an informed decision.

How many people will vote for I-892 thinking it gives them a huge tax cut while merely expanding lottery ticket machines? How many people will vote for R-55 not realizing it authorizes charter schools? How many people will vote for I-872 believing it restores the blanket primary?

Voters do have these mistaken impressions. And initiative sponsors are counting on it. And that is irresponsible politics.

Did Kerry win the debate? Well, he didn’t lose, and that’s all that counts.

You’re going to hear a lot about how much better Bush did this time around, but that’s starting from a pretty low standard. Besides, it doesn’t really matter anymore how well Bush does. As long as Kerry performs well, he wins.

Let’s face it, the incumbent is a lying sack of shit with a record of incompetence, possibly unparalleled in American history. Now perhaps the majority of “undecided” voters wouldn’t phrase it so strongly, but if after four years of Bush they are still undecided, they clearly share the sentiment to some degree. All Kerry needs to do to win this election is present himself as a credible alternative, and he has clearly done that. (Again, a pretty low standard to start from.)

The fact that Bush didn’t fall flat on his face this time, doesn’t add up to a victory. Indeed, even by standard debate scoring, Kerry clearly won, a fact the “instant polls” confirm.

When Kerry wins this election, it will be because the undecided made up their minds on Bush a long time ago.

Listening to the Randi Rhodes Show on Air America Radio the day after the first Kerry-Bush debate, I was initially taken aback by several callers, who suggested that Bush was secretly being prompted via a hidden earpiece. I knew Bush was a liar, but it hadn’t occurred to me that he would actually risk being caught cheating.

Randi’s staff quickly whipped up a very amusing sketch, in which the angry voice of Dick Cheney is heard barking instructions in his ear, as Bush rambles in the background.

Well, sometimes paranoid rumors turn out to be true, and an article in Salon today suggests that Bush was indeed wired for the first debate: “Bush’s mystery bulge“. The article includes the photo above, captured from CSPAN video… that clearly shows some sort of device underneath Bush’s suit jacket, with what appears to be a wire leading up towards his neck.

According to IsBushWired.com (talk about a specialized blog), Bush’s speech rhythms, word choices, and constantly shifting eye movements all suggest he is being fed lines and cues from offstage. And other evidence suggests he has been using an earpiece for some time:

Television viewers have sometimes heard another voice speaking Bush’s words before he says them. When Bush spoke at D-Day ceremonies in France last June, for example, viewers watching on CNN, Fox and MSNBC, including mediachannel.org’s Danny Schechter, were startled to hear another voice speaking Bush’s words as if to prompt him. Some said this continued into a q & a. And on the night of 9/11, when Bush appeared on television to address the nation, viewers of one television station in Quincy, Massachusetts heard another voice speaking, slowly and carefully, a few words at a time — words which were then recited by the president. The voice was nondescript, male, definitely not the president’s voice, says Quincy resident Robyn Miller. This went on for at least four sentences, she says, and then the “extra” feed was cut off.

Wow.

It didn’t surprise me that Bush sucked so badly during the first debate, and I guess it doesn’t surprise me that he might have cheated. But to both cheat and suck, well… that’s just pathetic.

Despite canceling $1 million worth of television ad space here, the National Republican Senatorial Committee says it has not lost faith in George Nethercutt’s campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Patty Murray.

The committee, which is the main source of soft money for Senate GOP candidates, canceled more than $1 million of reserved network advertising space in the Seattle market earlier this week.

Yeah… nothing shows faith in a candidate like pulling a million dollars worth of ads.

The GOP made two mistakes in WA’s senatorial race. First, they once again underestimated the physically diminutive Patty Murray. Second, they overestimated the politically diminutive George Nethercutt. Now that it’s become apparent that the grumpy, duplicitous Nethercutt will go down in a landslide on Nov. 2, the GOP has wisely decided to shift their money to a race they might actually have a chance of winning.

“That’s ridiculous,” Nethercutt spokesman Alex Conant is quoted as saying in today’s Seattle P-I.

Stop it Al… you’re making me dizzy.

Of course, spinning the story around the national GOP pulling the financial plug on your campaign, is still preferable to talking about the $10,000 the Federal Election Commission just fined you for failing to file finance reports on time. But it is hard to believe anything coming from the campaign of candidate who built his career on a record of lies, distortions, and broken promises.

Nethercutt made a grave miscalculation when he gave up his safe congressional seat to go after a senator he thought would be easy pickings… for he has been overmatched by Patty Murray in everything but height.

It is thus fitting that a man who won high office running on an insincere pledge to limit his service to three terms, finds himself removed from public life — five terms later — due to the inherent limitations of his own character and intellect.

I haven’t blogged on Collin Levey recently, but I just couldn’t ignore another of her bizarrely obsessive and unpatriotic attacks on ketchup. [“Ketchup: the Death of Democracy”… or something like that.]

Now perhaps Collin puts mayonnaise on her pomme frites, but I wouldn’t touch a fried Idaho without a tangy, tomatoey dollop of America’s favorite condiment. And like a majority of my countrymen, my ketchup of choice has always been Heinz.

So it seems odd that Collin insists on emphasizing the Heinz in Teresa Heinz Kerry, as if her name suggested some sort of evil corporate affiliation… like Dick Halliburton Cheney, or George bin Laden Bush. Heinz is a much beloved brand name, especially to the people of western Pennsylvania, where Heinz ketchup is not only an essential topping on their all-American burgers, but where grateful communities benefit from the tens or millions of dollars bestowed annually by Teresa and her late husband’s foundation.

Four times in her column, Collin refers to Teresa simply as “Heinz Kerry”, where as Laura Bush is always referred to as “Laura” or, well… “Laura Bush.”

Curiously, Laura’s middle name is “Welch”, singularly evocative of another well known American brand name, “Welches”, purveyors of grape juice and jam. So why have Collin and her colleagues in the right-wing media echo chamber focused on the “Heinz” in Teresa Heinz Kerry, while ignoring Laura Welch Bush’s missing middle name?

What grape-stained scandal is the media trying to hide? What sticky mess lies beneath Welch Bush’s white bread exterior? Collin continues to insinuate “sinister financial doings” involving the Heinz estate, yet at least Teresa still proudly wears her middle name.

A conspiratorial mind might wonder what kind of a moral, ethical or legal jam Laura Welch Bush got herself into to cause her to drop her middle name entirely? (And I’m not necessarily talking about the time she killed her boyfriend.)

So criticize Teresa Heinz Kerry all you want Collin… but I’d rather have a first lady with ketchup on her hands, not blood.

Since post debate instant polls (just add water) are all the rage this year, I thought I’d post a new poll in the wake of my historic debate with Tim Eyman.

And for those interested, the final results from my previous “lame-ass poll” were very revealing:

Kerry 85%
LaRouche 8%
Nader 5%

The most interesting part of this result is that perennial nutcase Lyndon LaRouche beat Green/Reform/Angry candidate Ralph Nader. And LaRouche isn’t even running.

Of course, this poll was totally unscientific. But that doesn’t seem to stop the Gallup organization.

I got a chance to debate Tim Eyman on I-892 before the Federal Way Chamber of Commerce today. While we’ve sparred a few times on the radio, it was the first time I’ve had the chance to go at him in person.

Before starting, Tim made a comment to the audience that this was going to be fun. It was. But not for him.

Perhaps he just thinks of me as an irreverent, name calling, prankster… but I’ve got a better grasp of his own initiative than he does. And, I’m so familiar with his rhetoric that I could routinely preempt his rebuttals in my own initial statements. He seemed annoyed at my ability to point out his lies and distortions, and tried to cover it up with his trademark shit-eating-grin.

Afterwards I received many positive comments from this pro-business audience, including several people who said they were reconsidering their support of I-892.

It’s amazing, how when armed with the facts, voters tend to make the right decisions at the polls.

The battle over I-892 is simple: it is the most massive expansion of gambling in state history, putting 18,255 slot machines into over 2000 neighborhood bars, restaurants, and bowling alleys scattered through nearly every community in the state… dramatically increasing access to the most addictive form of gambling ever devised.

If voters understand that, I-892 will lose.