HorsesAss.Org

Spokane County just reported: Gregoire +8, Rossi +15, meaning Rossi has gained 8 votes on the hand recount thus far, bringing his margin up to a whopping 50 votes.

The Snark may not like my math, but if you take the ratio of new votes to vote totals statewide thus far, and extrapolate that to the vote totals in King County after the machine recount, we would expect to see Gregoire +327 to Rossi +196 in the hand count… without the 723 perfectly-legal-but-inexplicably-excluded ballots.

So there.

That’s all from me for a few hours.

Pierce County Superior Court has issued a temporary restraining order preventing King County from counting the 573 (723?) erroneously rejected absentee ballots. Back to the Supremes.

I will restrain from editorializing for the moment… I don’t want to sound like the paranoid loons on the right-wing blogs.

UPDATE:
I take that back… I’m only willing to show so much restraint.

First of all, I’m fairly confident that the Supreme Court will overturn this decision. But if they don’t, and Rossi wins on a technicality, then we will have seen a miscarriage of justice that transcends any paranoid fantasy perpetrated on the right-wing blogs.

Nobody is arguing that these are not legal votes from legal voters. Nobody is implying that there was any voter error. These are ballots that would have been counted the first time if election workers had done their job right.

What the court just said was “fuck you” to the voters being disenfranchised, and “fuck you” to efforts to elect a governor based on who actually got the most votes, rather than who got the most votes in counties that managed to canvass them correctly the first time around.

Gregoire could still pull ahead without these ballots, but regardless of who “wins” this election, voters should be outraged if these votes aren’t counted. I know I will be.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Oh… and to those of you offended by my use of profanity… it’s my blog and I can curse if I want to. What… you never express emotion when things don’t go your way?

Pierce County has just reported their hand recount results: Gregoire +232, Rossi +201

With only Spokane and King left to report, we are virtually back to where we started, with a net pickup of one vote for Dino Lossi Rossi.

According to a report this morning in The Seattle Times, King County Elections Director Dean Logan believes there may be another 162 absentee ballots that had been erroneously rejected because workers couldn’t find signatures on file.

Is that the shit I hear hitting the fan? No, it’s just the sound of the likely losers asking for a new election.

UPDATE: It’s 150 new ballots, for a total of 723.

At this crucial point in the recount, when any misstep or momentary wavering of resolve could cost Christine Gregoire the election, Democrats must pause and ask themselves: “What would Tom DeLay do?”

The state GOP knows the answer, and that’s why after weeks of attacking Democrats for dragging the election into the courts, they have predictably lawyered up and filed a motion in Pierce County Superior Court seeking a restraining order to prevent King County Elections from verifying the signatures on the 573 wrongly rejected absentee ballots. Yup, all their talk about the “will of the people” was merely that.

By now it should be clear that Republicans are out to win at any cost, and to that end, GOPolitburo Chair Chris Vance continues to spew the kind of Orwellian doublespeak that would make the bug-man from Texas proud:

“If King County moves forward we will never know the truth about those ballots,” said Republican State Party Chairman Chris Vance. “We want to get some answers about these very suspicious ballots.”

But it is the truth about those ballots — the votes recorded on them — that Chairman Vance desperately wants to conceal… for we all know that if those votes are counted, Dino Rossi’s prospects would dangle more precariously than a one-cornered chad.

And so Democrats must ask themselves… “what would Tom DeLay do?”… because that is surely the question that Chris Vance is now asking himself. Would he fret over disenfranchising voters with the governorship hanging in the balance? Would he hesitate to unfairly malign an opponent or a public employee or a colleague or even a friend, if it would work to his political advantage? Would he stop at bending, stretching or disregarding the truth, if that’s what it took to win?

Democrats should not kid themselves about how far Chris Vance and his party would go to win this election. If he could halt King County’s recount, he would… if he could throw out the county’s ballots entirely, he’d blithely point to the state’s remaining votes as evidence of a landslide and the mandate that goes with it.

What would Tom DeLay do? Chris Vance is already doing it, and Democrats must be relentlessly and unapologetically aggressive in fighting him for every last damn vote.

Snohomish County just reported the results of their hand recount: Gregoire +119, Rossi +75

Combine Gregoire’s 44 vote pickup with the unofficial 17 vote pickup from Pierce County (with about 75 ballots left to canvass), and Rossi’s lead is down to 57 votes. Unless Rossi benefits from a surprise in Spokane County, King could easily put Gregoire over the top, with or without the 573.

UPDATE:
Couldn’t help but poke a little fun at the befuddled numerologists over at (un)Sound Politics, desperate to prove their spreadsheets more accurate than the actual election:

It’s fair to assume that any newly discovered ballots would be distributed to the two candidates based on their share of the previous vote counts. In this case, 194 new two-party votes were added in Shohomish, of which 75 went to Rossi, 24 fewer than would have been expected based on his share of the machine recount in that county. The probability of such a large deviation is only 0.03%. This is not an outcome that can reasonably be attributed to chance. Another explanation is required and it would be interesting to hear what it might be.

Yeah… how come I didn’t see Stefan pondering the discrepancy when new votes in Whatcom and Skagit went disproportionately for Rossi?

I just got off the phone with King County Council Chair Larry Phillips, and here is the information straight from the horse’s, uh… mouth:

He did NOT receive a notice that his absentee ballot had signature problems.

He does not know if notices were sent to some or all or none of the other 573, but he most definitely did not receive one.

As to how he found his name on the list in the first place, he was very detailed about the circumstances. At a Christmas party last Thursday he was approached by a friend to help out on Sunday to canvass voters whose ballots had not been counted. He showed up at the field office in Fremont (as did fellow Councilmember Dow Constantine), where after first being assigned an area in West Seattle, and then in Carnation, he eventually convinced them to give him an area in his own district. After first familiarizing himself with the maps, he started reading through the names and addresses, and found himself tenth on the list. After finishing his canvassing, he started making phone calls, and well… you know what happened next.

No scandal, no suspicious circumstances… just sheer, dumb luck.

Phillips also emphasized that these are all legal absentee ballots from legal voters that were incorrectly rejected due to a procedural error: election workers should have pulled the paper work when they did not find the signatures on the computer.

So unless you are calling Phillips a liar, enough already of the speculation and conjecture surrounding these 573 ballots. They were rejected by mistake, and discovered by accident… and that is that.

Popular liberal blog Daily Kos has posted a new report from an observer on the floor of the King County recount.

The process is transparent, clear, and it’s working. It is transparent to the point that they sorted their trash publicly, with six observers from each side watching for stray ballots.

The report gives a very detailed accounting of the actual process that is being used to recount the ballots, and the bipartisan way in which the very few problems that have arisen are being resolved. This is recommended reading for both the inconsolable paranoids convinced the election is being stolen from under their noses, as well as the more rational amongst us on both sides of the aisle who have been trying to console the inconsolable with the very reasonable argument that it is nearly impossible to steal anything under this much scrutiny.

I agree wholeheartedly with the closing sentiments of the observer:

For the record, I’ve said here at Kos that this recount makes me sad. It still does; the winner loses by being tainted with the possibility of “stealing” the election, the loser loses because they will feel they were wronged. It’s not anyone’s fault (well, a certain campaign could have been better run, but that’s moot now); it’s just the nature of an election this close. The folks on the Republican side have agreed with me that ultimately, elections this close are lose-lose for both sides, and it’s unfortunate. But in the end, we’re all doing our best to make sure the counts are accurate, and the voters will benefit from that.

As reported widely, the King County Canvassing Board voted 2-1 today to proceed with signature verification on the 573 absentee ballots that had been erroneously rejected when computer records did not have their signatures on file. County Elections Director Dean Logan believes most of the ballots belong to valid, registered voters. Ballots with matching signatures will be brought back before the canvassing board.

The board postponed a decision on what to do with the 22 absentee and provisional ballots recently discovered in the base of voting machines.

Yesterday, GOPolitburo Chair Chris Vance repeated the mantra that has characterized his party’s PR campaign since the morning after the election:

Republicans are now “absolutely convinced that King County is trying to steal this election,”

Sometimes directly, sometimes indirectly, sometimes couched in legalese or pseudo-statistics, sometimes bluntly vicious… the state GOP and their evil elves on the right-wing blogs have relentlessly pushed the message that the only path to Democratic victory is outright fraud and corruption.

And their PR campaign has been a brilliant success. Even one of the most liberal legislators in the state is apparently cowed by the supposed public perception the Republicans have labored so hard to fabricate:

Sen. Adam Kline, D-Seattle, an attorney who will be chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said there is a “popular assumption” that Rossi has won the race, in part because of the Republican’s careful postelection public-relations strategy.

That, he said, will put Democrats “on very, very thin ice with the public” if lawmakers get involved in determining the outcome.

“I would be very, very careful here,” Kline said. “No matter how thoughtful and surgically precise we approached this, if we were seen publicly as trying to steal an election, the ill will we would invite would be worse than four years of Dino Rossi.”

This is shit!

Let’s lay out a few facts here:

A) Statute called for an automatic machine recount, and allows for this hand recount as the final tally. Therefore, Rossi has not won anything.

B) If the 573 legitimate ballots — erroneously disqualified because election workers failed to check the signatures against the original records — had been counted the first time around, it would be Gregoire who would have come out of the mandatory machine recount with a 40-some vote lead… and it would have been Rossi trying to overturn the election by paying for a hand recount.

C) There are approximately 3000 additional ballots that have been disqualified in King County, because unlike some other counties, election workers actually did their job and matched signatures. The vast majority of these are legitimate ballots from legitimately registered voters, whose signatures failed to match those on record, or failed to sign their ballots at all. While the rules may in the end disqualify these ballots, the intent of these voters remains intact: a majority of voters who cast ballots for governor most likely did not choose Dino Rossi.

D) There has been no documented evidence provided of a single incident of fraud or corruption.

So… when Republicans claim that Democrats are trying to “steal this election”, the first thing I ask is, “from whom?”

Had election workers not erroneously disenfranchised those 573 voters, Christine Gregoire would now be the Governor-elect, and Dino Rossi would be the usurper. Okay, shit happens. But more disgusting is the GOP rant that Democrats are trying to overturn the will of the people. Gimme a break! In an election whose margin of victory is too far within the voting technology’s margin of error to provide confidence that we can ever accurately determine the results, such a claim is just downright insulting. And in light of the thousands of voters from Democratic stronghold King County who were disenfranchised on technicalities, it is at least as reasonable to argue that the majority of legal voters intended to elect Gregoire.

Are Democrats trying to take the governorship away from Dino Rossi? Absolutely. But they are not trying to steal anything from the people.

My second question is, “how” are Democrats supposedly stealing this election? By making their case before the Supreme Court, and losing? By counting ballots that should have been counted the first time around? By asking for a hand recount they shouldn’t have had to ask for in first place, that has uncovered hundreds of additional Rossi votes without complaint?

Republicans have accused Democrats of trying to “change the rules in the middle of the game.” But A) this is not a game, and B) if they are attempting to “change the rules” they are doing so by the rules already in place. Statute gives canvassing boards the discretion during a recount to fix any counting and canvassing errors they discover, and that is what Dems are now asking the counties to do.

You want to argue that there has been too much sloppiness and error by election workers in King County, have at it. But it has all disadvantaged Democrats, both in the vote count, and in the PR battle. If this is corruption, it’s the most incompetent corruption I have ever seen.

Yeah, I forgot… us Democrats are all a bunch of liars and cheats, with a long tradition of using electoral fraud to cling to what little power we have left. Well the only reasonable thing to say in response is… fuck you!

I mean it. Every single one of you blinded-by-the-right Rossifarian wingnuts, desperately searching for some enemy to validate your anger… the next time you write an unsupported comment here accusing Democrats of fraud and corruption and malfeasance and vote-stealing and pig-fucking or whatever… remember, you are saying this about ME, personally! And from here on out, I intend to take it personally, and respond in kind.

The truth is, the Republicans knew on election night that the governor’s race was going to be a crap shoot, and their efforts have been as much about delegitimizing a potential Gregoire administration as it has been about assuring a Rossi one. This isn’t about stealing elections, it’s about both sides playing political hardball. And what’s really pissing off Republicans, is that WA state Democrats aren’t just rolling over like their national counterparts.

A big thank you to The Seattle Times for the public service of posting the list of rejected King County ballots online!

My vote apparently counted… how about yours?

(FYI, the most likely surname to be disqualified was Johnson, with 17 rejected ballots. I guess those dicks just don’t know how to vote.)

The Washington State Supreme Court unanimously rejected the Democrat’s petition to establish uniform standards for conducting the hand recount, and order counties to recanvass rejected ballots.

I’m disappointed, but not surprised.

Here is something to chew on for all those Republicans, “Dinocrats” and weak-kneed liberals who argued that Gregoire should have gracefully conceded after the machine recount: if those 561 erroneously rejected absentee ballots had been counted in the first place, it is Gregoire who likely would have come out with a 40-some-vote lead after the first recount, not Rossi.

Chew on that for a moment.

At the risk of drawing a baseball bat to the head from the mathematical guidos who run the numbers racket over at (un)Sound Politics, I thought I’d comment again on their wholly unscientific enterprise of predicting the outcome of our ongoing hand recount.

In an effort to prepare his “fellow Republicans for some possible bad news”, Jim Miller presents the somewhat plausible (though totally unsupported) premise that random counting errors are not random at all, positing that “people tend to make mistakes that favor themselves.”

And so I wondered if the current results — an admittedly small sample representing only 20% of total ballots cast — might support Jim’s thesis. Early returns have tended to come from Republican strongholds where Rossi won handily, thus he currently leads the recount 56% to 41%. If Jim is correct, that some of the newly found votes are the result of nonrandom bias, then Rossi’s lead in these new votes should be somewhat greater than his lead in the overall totals.

Out of 338 aggregate new votes, Rossi has gained 190, while Gregoire has gained 144. Pull out your spreadsheets if you wish, but off the top of my head that comes to about 56% for Rossi, 42% for Gregoire… almost exactly the same percentage as the overall totals. Apparently, these new votes have been distributed randomly between the candidates.

Of course, Jim might attribute this lack of discrepancy to the fact that Republicans are honest and Democrats are not. (I suspect he probably will.)

But more interesting to me is what this says about the statistical contortions his fellow numerologist Stefan is using to reinforce the notion that Rossi has already won… whatever the final vote count. Stefan knows how to write, so I can only assume that his long-winded recitations of obscure Excel functions are intended to confuse the reader, while fulfilling an apparently urgent need to constantly reassure himself of how smart he is.

So rather than torturing you with pages of calculations, permit me to propose a mathematical shortcut, based on the premise that the majority of these newly counted votes are not the result of human error during the recount, but rather, random tabulation error during the machine count. Since the overall vote count is roughly a 50-50 split, can’t we assume that statewide, the newly found votes should also split roughly 50-50?

Add in the 561 new votes in King County, and one would think that Gregoire stands a fair chance of winning the election.

Of course… all of this is complete bullshit, because there are so many factors that could screw up any projection in such a close race. Did King County already vet much of its discernible “under vote” during its more thorough recount? Are there more surprises to be uncovered in King or elsewhere? Will the King cavass board re-examine rejected ballots due to court mandate or public and party pressure? Will the rest of the new votes break as predictably as the first 20% have?

I’ve got no idea. And you know what? Neither does Stefan or Jim.

According to a release on their website, King County Elections Director Dean Logan will ask the canvassing board to amend their certified results to include “approximately” 561 absentee ballots mistakenly rejected because their signatures were not on file in the county’s voter registration system. Original registration records should have been retrieved to verify signatures.

If these ballots break along similar percentages as the rest of the county vote, that should amount to about a 100 vote pickup for Gregoire.