Caveats abound in any analysis of yesterday’s primary election, with low voter turnout, partial results and a first ever top-two format making direct comparisons and general election projections all but impossible. But trends are trends, and the one that immediately jumped out last night from the very first drop was the dramatic improvement Gov. Chris Gregoire registered in county after county, relative to the performance of her Grand Old Party Party opponent Dino Rossi. And that can’t bode too well for Dino.
The top two format and the lack of any legitimate intraparty nomination battle essentially turned yesterday’s primary into a straw poll between Gregoire and Rossi, and so I have chosen to compare the two candidate’s relative performance to the last time the two faced off against each other head to head in the 2004 general election. This is admittedly an imperfect comparison—the primary electorate is not the same universe of voters as that in the general—but far preferable to attempting to draw conclusions from a comparison to the 2004 primary, which might as well have been conducted in an alternate universe.
The 2004 general was of course excruciatingly close: a legitimate win for Gov. Gregoire under Washington’s election statutes, but realistically, a statistical tie. In Gregoire’s favor this time around are the inherent advantages of incumbency, a campaign team that recognizes Rossi as a legitimate threat, and a track record in office that establishes her as a competent, moderate and unscary executive. In Rossi’s favor… lingering, bitter resentment over his almost-victory four years ago.
Opinion polls have long shown the governor with a modest but consistent lead, and after a couple months and a couple million dollars of attack ads, yesterday was an opportunity to see if voters were moving toward one candidate or the other. And, well, it’s hard to argue that they’re moving toward Rossi.
Even with more than a half dozen spoilers in the race compared to the lone Libertarian in the 2004 general, Gregoire has thus far increased her percentage of the vote in 23 of 39 counties, compared to only three such counties for Rossi. But a more meaningful analysis of Gregoire and Rossi’s relative, county by county performance, as illustrated in the chart below, comes from comparing the margin separating the two candidates… a margin that has moved in Gregoire’s favor in a whopping 30 of 39 counties.
Once King County’s votes come in, Gov. Gregoire will likely end up leading Rossi by a roughly 50% to 45% margin statewide, and while it is no doubt tricky to adjust for the impact of minor candidates, there is no reason to suspect that the remaining five-percent of the vote will strongly break one way or the other in the general. Likewise, there is no compelling evidence that turnout in this primary advantaged one party or the other in any region of the state. Indeed, yesterday’s election proved awfully damn consistent with opinion polls that continue to show Gregoire with a modest but steady lead.
If there is a conclusion to be made it is that this was an opportunity for angry voters to repudiate Gov. Gregoire… and they didn’t.
Still, this race is far from over; an awful lot of money will be spent between now and November attempting to sway voters from one side to the other, while the expected crush of general election voters makes any analysis of primary results speculative at best. But if Rossi supporters were looking for good news in yesterday’s results, I don’t think they found any.
Grand Old Party Party? You mean it’s not the Global Orgasm for Peace Party?
What’s the turnout? 24 percent statewide and 17/18 percent in King County?
Kind of lackluster which is pretty much to be expected in a primary in August. But the good Dem numbers means they’re energized and will show up in November. That I like to see.
I hope it means good things for November but I see no guarantee here.
Keep fighting!
I saw ol’ Dino on TV this morning giving an interview. He said things were going peachy keen when comparing the vote against the 2004 primary. Much improved results.
If you believe this I have a bridge for sale.
@3: Just wait, Goldy is about to say the exact thing about Burner’s loss as Rossi is saying about his own. Both sides are claiming losses and wins as victories, using completely different logic in each case.
After telling everyone for weeks that primary results don’t really mean anything, Goldy gushes over Gregoire’s “lead”. What a crock! Say bye-bye to Christine and Darcy.
# 3: Does that bridge for sale have eight lanes, span lake washington, and is available for a discounted price of much less than what every expert says a six-lane bridge would cost???? ;-)
Yaz # 4: That line of reasoning works both ways; if Rossi’s primary results are “encouraging” to him, then so are Darci’s.
I’ve got to ask: who in Asotin County changed their vote so that Gregoire’s results showed a 20% improvement?
John @5,
Did you read the post or just look at the pretty picture? It’s filled with caveats, and I really only draw two conclusions: 1) Voters didn’t repudiate Gregoire; and 2) Rossi supporters can find no good news in these results.
So how you find this “gushing,” I don’t know.
Well what does Rossi expect? The punk hides from the public, won’t release his tax records and operates with the secrecy of a mafia boss. Why vote for someone who’s afraid to tell you how they will govern?
4 YAZ
If you can add together the votes of all the Republicans in the governor’s race and somehow come up with more votes than Chris Gregoire got, then yes, THEN you could say a similar thing to that which one can say about Burner/Reichert.
Otherwise, not so much. When Darcy runs against Reichert in the general election where there are no other Democrats to split the vote, I think Dave will have to find a hair stylist back here in King County.
Goldy–
I think you are grasping at straws here.
So many variables involved in Primary voter turnout. But if it makes you feel good, then it’s worth it by golly!
It seems like you are so confident, Gregoire should stop campaigning and certainly stop fund-raising. Perhaps Gregoire should encourage campaign contributions be sent to the Homeless Bloggers Association or the Muslim Pygmys of Iran. Why waste millions on unnecessary advertising?
It’s going to be another down to the wire election. One point….either way.
Rossi seems very composed.
Gregoire seems edgy & angry when challenged.
Rossi has a tough challenge ahead trying to get folks to understand State Budgeting & Finance. But they do understand Tax Increases…and people are pretty tapped out.
11 – And sell the nautilus machine in his apartment in DC.
Sorry Grand Old Party Party people: you’ve just seen Dino’s peak. The percentage he got in the Primary is what he will get in the General. Lots more people will vote, but they will vote in the same percentages they did Tuesday. There is no good reason to believe that this race will shift as dramatically as it would have to for there to be any other outcome. Despite Dino and the BIAW, voters just aren’t in the mood to through Gregoire out. It also looks to me as though the D’s will retain their huge margins in both the Senate and House. Just telling ya.
Cynical @ 12: “Rossi seems very composed.”
Yea, I had a boss like that once. Turned out he didn’t have the slightest idea what was going on.
He figured he was the “idea man”, and implementing the ideas was somebody else’s problem. Then he couldn’t figure out why his ideas never got implimented. Turns out they were all completely unfeasable for one reason or another, but he never knew the details enough to understand why. The guy claimed to have a business degree and work toward an MBA, but when I mentioned cost vs. accrual basis accounting, he just had a blank look on his face, clearly not understanding at all what I was saying, but not wanting to admit it.
Eventually he got angry and paranoid, blamed his staff for stabbing him in the back, and resigned just ahead of getting fired. I heard he only lasted in his new position for a year after that.
I can still see his composure gradually turning to beat-red embarrasment and anger, as he shouted “I don’t want to hear excuses about how we don’t have any money left in the budget – I just want it done!” as he stormed out of the office, slamming the door behind him.
Rossi’s transportation plan reminded me of that guy, that’s why I make the connection.
When I was young, I remember hearing adults laugh about politicians who promised to “increase services” and “reduce taxes” at the same time. To them, that was the perfect example of a lying politician, someone who assumes voters must be idiots.
Speaking of which…
Has Rossi ever explained how he is going to cut the gas tax and solve the transportation problem at the same time? (He implies this in the same commercial aired repeatedly).
Or how he’s going to build an eight-lane bridge over Lake Washington for significantly less than the cost of a six-lane bridge?
Or what those eight lanes worth of cars are going to do once the narrow down to a single-lane entrance ramp onto I-5 (one lane merging into northbound traffic, the other merging into southbound traffic)???
“Rossi” and “composure” don’t exactly seem to fit hand-in-hand when the best video of the campaign so far is his hired guns giving democrat cameramen the heave-ho because he’s afraid of attack ads.
For a race that was dead tied in 2004 to be looking at a very real chance of a 5% gap when all the votes are counted, that’s pretty interesting. A good night for Gregoire.
rhp6033 @ 16
Probably the same way Rossi will turn his five point primary loss into a victory in November – NOT! None of Rossi’s pipe dreams are feasible, but fortunately the voters in November will deflate the predicate pipe dream of actually getting elected in the first place.
I guess I’d be composed too if I knew that I was surrounded by jack-booted thugs like the SPD and others who create a zone around proven liar Dino Rossi that means he is untouchable.
Unfortunately, you can’t hide like that and win.
My prediction is he loooooses by five points and no matter the margin, the cowards on the right will cry “We was robbed” again, even though the only proven illegal votes in the last election were cast by republican voters.
Pope @ 18: Yea, I left off one of the more obvious ones: how is Rossi going to work with a Democratic state legislature to get anything accomplished?
I don’t see him accomplishing anything for four years, other than using his veto pen a lot, while needed transportation packages get backed up waiting for approval. If his campaigns are any indication, he doesn’t seem like the type of guy to be able to craft agreements across party lines, make compromises, and win the support from both sides of the aisle. His supporters, even less so.
Can’t help but wonder how many people saw the disconnect between the Rossi campaign putting up the “Don’t let Seattle steal the election” billboards east of the Cascades, while he’s proposing a gold-plated, eight-lane 520 bridge. Like that’s going to help the farmers in Odessa…
Here’s another basis of comparison — Gregoire ran behind all statewide incumbents but one (Bergeson).
Ron @22,
And Rossi ran behind Reed, McKenna and Sutherland (and just barely ahead of the relatively unknown Martin, running against two Democrats for Treasurer.)
I never said the gubernatorial race wouldn’t be close. I just don’t see a lot of good news for Rossi.
Goldy ..
To me these results are consistent with the polling, after 3 years, Gregoire has not stimulated the kind of enthusiasm that makes winners.
Is this a meaningful poll? Yes. But what it shows is that Rossi and Gregoire are fighting with negative add that create little enthusiasm.
Assumiong all I hear at DL about Rossi is true, I also want him to lose. But if the best Christy can is run attack ads, I think she can lose.
@24 let’s hope you’re right because at the national level all the “GOP” is doing is running attack ads and if that doesn’t work, Dems win the White House! Of course, all Rossi is doing is running negative ads too – so I not sure how your point means much.
SJ @ 24: I keep hearing you complain about Gregoire’s negative ads. But as experience has shown over the past fifteen years or so, you can’t rely on the media to investigate and report the truth about your opponant. The media has become little more than a conduit for printing press releases by either candidate. In such an environment, Gregoire HAS to show the inconsistency between Rossi’s current ads, his actions while in government, his his proposals. And she HAS to respond to Rossi’s attack ads against her. If there was ever any doubt about that, then Kerry proved it in 2004 when he thought that the attacks against his military record would be “obvious”, and he shouldn’t lower himself with a response.
So I think it’s funny when Rossi complains about Gregoire raising the gas tax, then Gregoire pointing out he voted for the tax increase, then Rossi (and you) complain about Gregoire “going negative”.
On the other hand, Gregoire HAS placed positive ads pointing out that despite the national economy going into the toilet, Washington ranks 4th on Forbe’s list of “good places to do business in Washington” (despite Rossi’s unsupported claims to the contrary). Yet that kind of positive advertising seems to be ignored by people like you, who claim she is only engaged in negative advertising.
Personally, I wish she would take the gloves off and REALLY go for Rossi, showing him for the sleazy snake-oil salesman he is. Anybody who implies he’s going to cut the gas tax and solve the transportation problems in the state at the same time is dishonest to the core, assumes that our state voters are stupid, and deserves to lose.
Re. Rossi’s gas tax meme: Most voters can see that a 9.5 cent tax on a gallon of gas is a lot less than the price of gas that went from $1.65 a gallon to over $4 per gallon.
Who’s the gouger in this scenerio? Even Republicans gotta buy gas and reflect on this as the numbers race forward on the price gauge or gouge — depending on your take.
Remember that McCain pays posters to put pro-McCain comments on blogs such as this one. Obama supporters do it voluntarily, because they care about the direction our country is headed.
SeattleJew,
“To me these results are consistent with the polling, after 3 years, Gregoire has not stimulated the kind of enthusiasm that makes winners.”
Your facts are incorrect. In Aug of 2005, Rossi was leading in the polls 55% to Gregoire 39%. The full polling is here.
The fact is, the Republicans spent a couple of million dollars in a huge smear campaign (the 2005 election contest). It took Gregoire two years just to break even after that, and she has held a small, but real, lead since. (That is, her lead may fall within the “margin of error” for each individual poll, but it is improbable to expect that her lead in almost every poll for the last year to be caused by chance.)
OK, Goldy.
Rossi ran ahead of all challengers to incumbents but one (Goldmark).
I omitted the race for Treasurer because it’s an open seat.
The statewide incumbent field provides a reasonably robust benchmark, relatively insensitive to where the partial results are coming from, how many are in, and uncontaminated by any debatable choice of past election as basis of comparison.
Maybe we’ll have more to chatter about when the certified results are in.
Nationally, the Democrats could still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The mere rumor of the possiblity of Joe Biden (Joe Biden? FEH!) being chosen for his running mate appears to have caused a drop in Obama’s reported poll numbers.
Art @ 31: I would suspect that with all the time they had available, the vice-presidential selection would be the most subject to advance polling by the candidates in history. There’s no excuse for a candidate to make a pick based on guesswork about where this would leave them in the polls. They should have enough polling done to know exactly what affect a vice-presidential selection will give them in the electoral college count.
Of course, it’s always possible that the negatives of every VP candidate outweigh the positives. There’s such high expectations about this selection, that there are bound to be some dissapointed people no matter who Obama selects. It’s possible Obama might have to select the VP candidate which results in the LEAST impact on the polling.
There’s something to be said for Biden – as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he brings a lot of expertiese to that area. But I agree, he doesn’t generate a lot of excitement, and I don’t see him bringing any particular demographic help to the ticket (he won’t appeal to the white/mail demographic like Webb might).
@28
Its either that or all this that Obama has promised everyone:
1. 7000 tax credit to consumer buying electric cars (http://gm-volt.com/2008/08/04/.....t-by-name/)
2. 4 billion to automakers (Ibid)
3. Income-tax free living for seniors making less than 50k.
4. 4k tuition tax credit for college students.
Just don’t ask HOW or WHO is going to pay for it. . .so which government teat will you be nestling up to?
“I should be glad if you had really discovered a beneficent and inexhaustible being, calling itself the Government, which has bread for all mouths, balm for all sufferings, which can provide for all our wants, correct all our errors, repair all our faults, and exempt us henceforth from the necessity for foresight, prudence, judgment, sagacity, experience, order, economy, temperance, and activity.” – Frederic Bastiat, Essay on Government (1848)
rhp6033
There is a difference between being a shill or advocate and being a commentator. FWIW, this will mainly be a vote against Rossi. I will not cast this with enthusiasm for two reasons:
1. I think she is a competent executive but unwilling to take the kinds of stands that (can) lead to popularity and (more importantly) fix problems. She reminds me a bit of Mit Romney.
2. Her inability to evoke support is indication that she is not perceived as the sort of leader the people will listen to. This limits her ability to govern.
IMO ..CG represents a failure of the democratic party to breed/find or create leaders who can fight the Reprican nonsense. We need a lot better candidates!
*********************************
The campaign as it is being foughtt now by both sides is failing to address real issues. So it will be decided based on who places the best and most ads.
Last time she was **** lucky the media poorly broadcast the debates because she lost. Unless she has gotten better skills since then I am concerned she will lose again and this time Rossi will use clips to his advantage.
What could she do?
Show leadership. Propose real plans as opposed to Rossi’s fantasies.
29 Darryl
I hope you are right but we see this differently.
She should have handily one the last election but did not. Why?
I think she is a very poor campaigner. Now I see a campaign being fought with smear ads on both side .. regardless of whose smears are correct. This seems to em to play to Rossi’s strengths.
Even if CG wins such a contest it will leave her in a poor position to lead.
I have talked with a LOT of folks, smart folks, about her. There are two concerns thes epeople raise:
1. she is living in a bubble and has little feel for the electorate (that comment came from a high level lobbyist and feminist who REALLY wants CG to win).
2. CG wants to do the right thing but is by nature an administrator rather than a leader. Her priorities are, perhaps admirably, to get the doable done.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Let me give you an example. The branch campuses are, I beleive, largely political devices to accommodate legislative interests.
As you know I think these campuses reflect a real lack of high level planning for the future of higher ed in WASTATE.
I picked this example because support for higher ed is wide spread. If Gregoire were a leader, she would get in front of this troop and give it direction.
That seems to me to put her on ground where Rossi can not compete.
@33 comstitution
There is a fiction that spending money wisely increases debt. Not spending money on some of what BHO wants means we end up with increased costs. That makes no sense.
For example, if we lose the auto industry it may not be replaced with other jobs. China, Europ, Russia, all compete using industrial policies. Only a naif Reprican thinks the “free market” will win.
As to whether investing tax money in automakers is a good as a opposed to just a plitical gesture, that si very worth debating.
@35 I’m not sure what feel a feminist lobbyist would have for the electorate. Would that be the Feminist-Lobbyist electorate?
I do agree with #2 about Gregoire and leadership.
@36
I am not advocating that we “not spend money” (at all) but that the money be spent wisely. I understand where you are coming from with the car analogy. However, some of what I mentioned above does not have the kind of ROI on spending money, such as giving 7k credits for electric vehicles – this does nothing but contribute to the global warming hysteria.
Quite simply, free markets are the only solutions. Government does not produce anything. Why is it that people do not understand this? Socialism is the very opposite of free markets, where we have government control of industry, price controls, congress chasing “speculators”, etc. History shows that when governments get involved in these things that they inevitably fail.
The reason that we do not have jobs in this country as we used is because of several reasons, one of which is that we over-regulate and tax these companies to death.
Google for cars and mpg. You’ll find students, colleges, and even individuals creating cars that get over 100, 200, even 1k mpg. This is individual free enterprise at its finest. Remember the challenge to put a commercial plane into space?
Just what is it that the government creates that people are so fascinated with, and that we did _without_ for so long???
“Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.” (Alexis de Tocqueville)
Chris won the 2004 primary by a larger margin, and she still lost two legitimate counts and only won one count (admittedly the important one) by a very strong margin after votes were “found”. No I think this is the beginning of her undoing. She has squandered money in this state to the point we are looking at a deficit. She has signed us into the HIGHEST gas tax of any state with little to no improvement in transportation. I think after the circus that put her in office national eyes will be on this election. She cannot handle Rossi in a debate, if she doesn’t debate him she will lose because of that. I kind of feel sorry for her…reminds me of a child that hasn’t done anything the entire semester in school and has just realized that report cards are coming out at the end of the week. Kind of reminds me of the Ron White joke, “Have you ever been thrown out of a bar? No not escorted to the door but THROWN out”
I’m not sure I agree with all the Democratic handwringing about Gregoire. I think, given the difficult circumstances leading to her taking office, including the high level of hostility aimed at her from half the electorate, that her first term was quite successful. I find her personable, well-spoken, and thoughtful, with good leadership instincts. She is all of what Dino Rossi, a glib yet dull real estate salesman, is not.
@39 CG can’t handle Rossi in a debate? That implies proven liar Rossi would agree to a debate. You see at a debate, he’d have to allow cameras from the other side. His words would be recorded. He’d have to appear without SPD shielding him. Seems unlikely a punk like Rossi would go for any of that. He doesn’t think we have a right to know anything about him. He wants to keep his income secret and won’t answer questions about positions saying that he will only talk about what he wants to talk about. Yeah – like that will work in a debate.
39 – Cheesy Chuck you ignorant slut. Rossi is a mean-spirited jerk. He can’t bring himself to say Gregoire’s name once, not once in this ugly campaign. It’s always “my opponent” or “the incumbent”. Even Ronald Freaking Raygun referred to Jimmy Carter as “The President” before he’d say something jerky. Rossi will never refer to Gregoire as “The Governor”. What an asshole.
Like just about every right winger. So this is what you want in a Governor?
Heaven help us if this man is elected.
@40 She seemed to do well when we had the floods. I recall some great news footage of a flooded out guy in a hunting cap and jacket getting all weepy and hugging her. I’d slip that one into a commercial if I were her.
Is Chuck another incarnation of that dumb fuck Puddy? These fucking Republicans are too strange for words.
Does anyone else find it odd that Christine Gregoire has been entrenched in government longer than Saddam Hussein was? It almost makes me think, at least in terms of turnover, that we’d be better off living in a dictatorship. At least dictators don’t stick around as long as the likes of Gregoire, Nickels, and Sims. I am disgusted that my fellow Democrats keep reelecting the same corrupt, parasitic bums, over and over again.
45
Yeah, she’s been involved in government about as long as your boy, John McCain. Let me think here, has Grampy ever held a job in the private sector, can you help me here?
Steve, it’s a good thing for a sane person’s mental health that we forget.
I totally forgot how FUCKED UP the loony comments of Puddybud’s sock-puppet MWS were – an endless spew of right-wing blithering nonsense.
It’s pretty obvious what was happening back before Nov 2006 – the Republicans were in full meltdown mode after Abramoff, Ney, Cunningham, Scooter Libby, Ted Haggard and Mark Foley among many others.
The writing was on the wall and not even PuddyLoser could deny it. So what did he do? He took it out on all of us here with his batshit insane sock-puppet MWS.
What a head case!
@46
Good point.
George Washington, after two terms, declined reelection. He believed there was a greater chance of an elected official becoming a tyrant the more time they spent in office.
Do you agree with George Washington?
@45 “I am disgusted”
No, you are disgusting.
42. YLB spews:
Don’t know if it occurs to you, but many of us in this state do not see her as governor because of the way she bought the office with “found” votes. I wasn’t running against her in 2004 but if I had I would have the same attitude. You see I don’t see her as governor, but a crook that stole the office with the help of the DMC, the same way as they tried to put Gore in with hanging chads. So I understand why Rossi refers to her as an opponent.
48
I would agree with Washington’s proposition, in a general sense, and certainly given his time, he was correct. Moreover, when it comes to being leader of a nation with a military to command and intelligence agencies to use, the risk of tyrancy increases with tenure. On the other hand, if our checks and balances work the way they are supposed to, I don’t think there’s much risk of a governor in the state of Washington becoming a tyrant. I think the public sphere, like the private sphere, benefits from having a mix of graybeards with much experience and pimply faced kids with energy and new ideas to burn. I think term limits are remarkably bad policy.
Chuckie,
Paranoid delusions are a fundamental characteristic of the rightwing in this nation. The right projects its irrational, scheming, fascist maneuverings onto the left. We aren’t organized on the left, Chuckie, and that’s the only reason we lose elections. We have the majority on virtually every single major policy issue in the nation. We lose elections because you folks scream about voter fraud, terror, and fear. You guys could never win an election if issues, honesty, and character were all that mattered.
I see Dino as a would be political crook who failed in his attempt to steal the 2004 election. Strike one. That he is beholden to the humanity-hating, goatfucking commie-fascists of the BIAW is strike two. That shit-eating grin of his is strike three.
Don’t let Seattle steal this election? You projecting fools, Rossi isn’t going to steal this election either. Forget about it.
I forgive her for the Sonics. I’m voting Gregoire.
Hate to tell you but if issues, honesty and character were all that mattered you libs would stand as much chance in an election as Pee Wee Herman would stand boxing Mike Tyson in his prime. Your issues all put us depending on government services, you constantly lie to accomplish this, and you have NO good character.
I guess that Chris is kind of beholden to the tribal casinos at this point…
Bye Bye Rossi. Chris will hammer him.
How much money has Dino given to the BIAW? How much in taxes will we need to pay for her indirect donation to the democratic party?
@57 Good grief, Puddy, how many screen names do you have?? Bye the bye, Rossi is to Gregoire what Foreman was to Ali. And Rossi is to the BIAW what stink is to shit.
Rossi has a shot. This is the “change” election, after all, so in a strange way, he may just ride in on Obama’s change coat tails. But Gregoire will probably win for no other reason than incumbents tend to get mindlessly reelected.
What does Obama have to bring to the table? 4 months as senator before he wanted to be president? WTF I wanted to see my dad as pres years ago…when he had experience, This guy is still wet behind the ears.
George of the jungle would be a better leader…
58. Steve spews:
@57 Good grief, Puddy, how many screen names do you have??
Make no mistake…. no puddy here, pure Chuck. You libs need to get real!
It appears to me that this primary is an indication that Rossi’s statistical tie in the 04 general election was probably a fluke and that he’s been milking all the attention he got from that post election, but has failed to move beyond his peak support in about January 05.
But I also think Gregoire is the type of candidate who will require a ton of support in terms of money and resource to assure her victory in November.
I hope the Republicans believe their spin on this primary, because it is delusional, just like the soap Rossi is trying to sell.
The turn in Spokane and Asotin counties may be related to the fact that they see political ads for Republicans in Idaho, which have been running heavily. They look just like Dino Rossi ads, confirming to a lot of people that Rossi is more of the same from the Republicans: all hat, no cattle.
Gregoire will need to fight hard to assure victory. Rossi will have a tough time convincing anyone with big money that he can win after his primary showing.
What is really stupid in mainstream media coverage of the primary, particularly at the Seattle Times, is their assertion that the primary means nothing in the race for Governor, while in describing other statewide races saying it means everything for McKenna and Sam Reed, perhaps the best to contrast with Rossi’s relatively really weak showing. (Rossi and friends spent the most and lost the most ground.)
Particularly stupid was the Joni Balter written editorial this morning with the french headline indicating Joni had experienced this all before. What vapid lazy assed BS.
We’ve never seen a primary like this. Four points isn’t a recount, it is a comfortable win. If the trend holds, Gregoire will be just above 50%, and is now widely expected to win the general election. That was true the day before yesterday.
Rossi and Luke Esser know this, but they can’t tell us the truth because they will be in the mail today asking everyday donors for more money now. Success at hitting up the little guys is the only way to show the big money they are worth the investment.
That Moore Poll they pushed didn’t help: it raised expectations the Rossi campaign did not meet. Look for a campaign shake-up. All the money Rossi and friends just spent appears to have been wasted or it backfired. It may take a new team to convince anybody that the people running the Rossi campaign are capable of spending anybody’s money wisely.
This is all good. The more people see of Dino Rossi, the more people understand he’d make a lousy Governor. The GOP has much better candidates on the bench in this state, including John Stanton.
The Chris solution was not to raise fuel tax until WASDOT HAD BEEN FIXED….well duh it still needs fixed. We are still paying more with little result. Give the real governor a shothas been in buisness for years and will help us. he
It’s always “my opponent” or “the incumbent”. Even Ronald Freaking Raygun referred to Jimmy Carter as “The President” before he’d say something jerky. Rossi will never refer to Gregoire as “The Governor”.
That is because she isn’t legitmate. Don’t worry you will be calling him Governor Rossi soon enough. heehehe
64 – Eat shit mutt! That Real Estate shill and BIAW puppet will never be any Governor of mine.
Read thor’s analysis @ 62 and cry in your shit cur!
Thor
Excellent analysis. Your point about Spokane and Asotin Counties is quite interesting. My father lives in Shoshone County, Idaho (Kellogg area), in the Spokane media market. He used to claim his wife and he were the only Democrats in Shoshone County. He says that now Democrats are everywhere in Idaho. Aside from pure racism and the nastiness of the McCain campaign, there is no way to explain the poll numbers showing McCain to be competitive. I do know that Obama is quite competitive now in states like Alaska and Montana. We’ll see how McCain handles that. And, please, Obama, pick Montana’s governor as VP. Go, Brian Schweitzer.
# 66: Idaho’s political landscape is changing. Idaho has been luring industry to relocate there based on cheap land, cheap power, and cheap labor. But a lot of the industries are still bringing their skilled workers with them.
Buck Knives is one such example. It had grown in the San Diego area for five generations of family ownership. But the spike in power rates caused by Enron market manipulation in the early part of this decade made it decide to relocate to Idaho. A lot of their work force got left behind, but among those that did make the move, a lot where Democrats.
And as Republicans policies have trashed the interests of the working people of Idaho as well as elswhere, more former Republicans are becoming Democrats.
Actually Puddylicker has at least 19 screen names that we know of thanks to a situation in which he was outed a while back. He is a pathetic looooser with multiple personality disorder – representative of most of the right wing scum we see here on HA – in fact Puddylicker IS most of the right wing scum we see here.
Back on point – Rossi’s lack of any attempt to connect with anyone but the extreme right wing base will backfire. As sitting Governor, CH has a huge built-in advantage. Most thinking people understand our state is a lot better off than other places – particularly those run by republican governors who tend to follow the Bush doctrine which is simple – fuck up everything you can as fast as you can.
Not bad Goldy. Actually, a piece not horribly off the mark…and some information presented in a way that’s unique and illustrative. Great chart.
I don’t give you props lightly either. ;)
He he he… Dino is now the one picking up steam BIG TIME! Closing a 4 pt gap and turning it into a 2 pt gap is no small feat. Gregoire’s camp must be worried. I would if I were them!
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W.....onTypeID=2