Tonight could be rather exciting. We may see a long drawn-out battle between Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary. The Arizona primary, also tonight, will almost certainly be a win for Mitt.

As I write this, results are coming in for Michigan. Mitt takes an early, but slight, lead.

5:36: I’m at the Montlake Alehouse watching MSNBC with the sound down, but listening to the Politico live stream. Can’t say that I’ve ever listened to the Politico live stream before. It’s an experiment.

5:41: Ron Paul is going into crazy-speech mode on the Politico feed.

5:45: I hate it when politicians (like Ron Paul) say, “we’re broke!” Sorry, nutburgers, you aren’t “broke” unless your debt outweighs your assets and income. As far as I know, no state in this union has such debt. The U.S. certainly does not have that degree of debt.

5:51: Paul’s speech was even too crazy for Politico. They cut it off and replaced it with a boring panel discussing Romney’s “foot in mouth” problem.

5:56: Ohhh…with 10.5% reporting, Santorum leads Romney by an anal hair.

6:00: Now 16% in and Santorum is up by 200+. Oops, now 17% and Mitt puts Santorum behind him.

6:02: MSNBC calls it for Romney in Arizona. How ’bout that totally genuine Romney endorsement by Gov. Jan Brewer? She and Romney are so, totally, similar.

6:09: Romney spreads it out over Santorum.

6:13: MSNBC: “Romney wins Arizona” (where 0% have reported); “Too close to call in Michigan” (where we actually have results).

6:20: Santorum tightens it up.

6:26: How fucking pathetic is Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul has twice as many votes as Newt [in MI]. Oh, how the gigantic-headed mighty have fallen.

6:38: I think the Republicans should bring Rachael Maddow in as the “White Horse” candidate.

7:07: How fucking pathetic is Ron Paul? Newt Gingrich has twice as many votes as Paul in Arizona. Oh…how the diminutive, crazy-ass have fallen.

7:12: Santorum is doing a speech….something about a “professional mom” and about why he married his wife, Karen (who used to shack up with the physician who delivered her). Santorum mentions that he has seven children. I guess he can do that without Bachmann in the race….

7:18: Damn…Politico has interrupted Santorum’s speech. I really wanted to learn about what, exactly, is the issue with the parts of the U.S. that have experienced population lost. I’m guessing that it has something to do with the evils of birth control.

7:32: Future Almost First Lady Ann Romney is speaking. She openly acknowledged Donald Trump and Kid Rock. I sense a “Dancing With the Stars” appearance for Ms. Romney.

7:34: Mitt is the projected winner of Michigan. “What a win”, says Romney. It’s his state for fucks sake. The real story is that with 80% of the vote in, Romney is only up by 3%. The word “pathetic” comes to mind.

9:39: Two hours later and Mitt still only has a 3% lead in Michigan.

Please join us Tuesday night for another evening of electoral politics under the influence as we watch the returns arrive from the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Yes…it’s another episode of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally!

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier than that for the earliest election returns.

I’ll be live blogging the event.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There are also Tuesday meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday, there are meetings of the Olympia, the Yakima, and the South Bellevue chapters.

With 229 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Jimmy Fallon: Translates Obama’s Expressions (via Indecision Forever).

Thom: Some Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Jon does Russ Feingold.

White House: West Wing Week, 100 episode edition:

Ann Telnaes: SCOTUS grants stay in MT Supreme Court case.

Thom: Does SCOTUS now recognize that Citizens United was a mistake?

Young Turks: Stephen Colbert converts dead Mormons to Judaism.

The G.O.P. Games:

• Jon on the Arizona GOP debate.
• Young Turks: Romney’s Koch brothers connection.
• Stephen on Mitt and Donald in Michigan
• Mitt Romney: The GOPs most extreme candidate.
• 100 proof Mitt (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• What’s Mitt’s explaination?
• Stephen on Mitt’s debate performance.
• Young Turks: Are Mitt and Ron BFF?
• Eric Schwartz: STFU Newt Gingrich.
• Young Turks: Newt would ignore our U.S. military commanders.
• Testing Newt’s theory about gun racks in Volts. (h/t Michael.
• Bill Maher: On Newt.
• Ann Telnaes: Rick Sanoturm’s environmental beliefs.
• Actual Audio: Rick Santorum vs the French Revolution
• Bill Maher with some Rick Santorum tweets.
• Eric Schwartz: STFU Santorum.
• Bill Maher: On Santorum.
• Young Turks: Paul and Romney crushes Santorum.

Mark Fiore: Little Green Man.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Another verse for “Vote Republican”:

Stephen fires back at Nancy Pelosi’s attack ad.

Obama does Detroit.

First congressional district candidates speak to Watcom Democrats.

Sam Seder: Who wrote the drone legislation?

Jon: The terrifying prospects of a second Obama term.

ONN: Senate session interrupted by wailing of Ted Kennedy’s ghost.

Alyona: Nuclear fear mongering.

Virginia’s “State Rape” and Other Fronts in the Republican War on Women:

• Jon: Like a “TSA pat-down inside their vagina.” (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Young Turks: Abstinence for married couples.
• One Minute News: IN Republican refuses to honor Girl Scouts.
• Alyona: What are women for?
• Ann Telnaes: No longer the party of Lincoln.
• SNL: Really? Really! (via WaPo).
• Young Turks: Most Americans are pro-birth control.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Radicalized Girl Scouts.
• Jon: an all male panel’s right to choose for a woman

Thom: More of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen does Nancy.

Comcast Newsmakers interviews Gov. Christine Gregoire.

Sam Seder: The Heartland Institute documents.

WI state Rep. Joel Kleefisch (R-38th) is Worst Person in the World.

Obama visits Boeing workers:

Shuster: Andrew Breitbart is a hypocrite for his silence on rape allegation against James O’Keefe.

Young Turks: David Koch admits buying Wisconsin.

Key & Peele onObama’s anger management.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Just in case we weren’t quit sure…Public Policy Polling has done a poll in the Senate race between Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and three potential opponents. The poll surveyed 1,264 Washington voters (2.8% MOE) from 16th to the 19th of February.

State Sen. Michael Baumgartner is Cantwell’s only declared opponent, but PPP also included match-ups between Cantwell and Seattle Port Commission President Bill Bryant and real estate salesman, former two-time gubernatorial and one-time senatorial candidate Dino Rossi. A possible entry into the race by Bryant has launched a minor feud within the state G.O.P.

Here are the PPP poll findings:

• Cantwell (D) 51% v. Baumgartner (R) 36%
• Cantwell (D) 50% v. Bryant (R) 36%
• Cantwell (D) 53% v. Rossi (R) 41%

For job performance, Cantwell receives 47% approval and 38% disapproval for a net of +9.

All three of Cantwell’s potential opponents are underwater in favorability. Nevertheless, the measure is meaningless for Baumgartner and Bryant who get “Not sure” from 78% and 85% of respondents respectively. Dino Rossi, for whom 88% of respondents have formed an opinion, receives 38% favorable to 50% unfavorable.

That’s right…Dino Rossi, the man who been the standard bearer of the Washington state Republican party torch since 2004 (and pitchfork since 2008) has a net favorability of -12.

Public Policy Polling has released a new poll on presidential politics taken in Washington state. The poll surveyed 1,264 voters (2.76% MOE) from 16th to the 19th of February.

Here are a few highlights. First the big four head-to-head match-ups. PPP writes:

Mitt Romney’s fortunes have really been sinking in PPP’s look ahead to the fall campaign, to the point where he routinely now performs worse against President Obama than the surging Rick Santorum does. Indeed, in Washington state, Romney not only trails Santorum with general election voters, but also Ron Paul.

• Obama 52%, Santorum 40%
• Obama 53%, Romney 38%
• Obama 55%, Gingrich 35%
• Obama 51%, Paul 38%

To put these numbers into context, Washington went for Kerry over Bush, 52.8% to 45.6% in 2004, and Obama over McCain, 57.7% to 40.5% in 2008.

Obama has a net positive job approval: 51% approve, 45% disapprove.

The four Republican candidates have terrible favorables:

• Santorum 36% favorable, 51% unfavorable
• Romney 27% favorable, 63% unfavorable
• Gingrich 19% favorable, 69% unfavorable
• Paul 31% favorable, 55% unfavorable

I think we can safely say that Washington isn’t turning red any time soon. I’ll be posting new poll analyses soon.

You know that nut-job uncle of yours who keeps forwarding shit to your email about how Obama is a Muslim trying to take away our guns and hand America over to the UN? Yeah…that guy?

Now suppose you engaged in an economic game with him beginning in the early 1960s. You each would invest $1,000 in the stock market. But he would do so only during the terms of Republican Presidents. You would do so only during the terms of Democratic presidents. Who’d be ahead today?

Clearly your Uncle would be wiping your socialist ass with the help of Republican Presidents and their laissez-faire, free market, capitalist policies. Right?

Um…not so much:

Uncle Billy-Bob: $2,087
You: $10,920

(And Billy-Bob has almost five extra years of investment on you. )

Any questions?

This is the kind of activist judicial ruling that will cause Rick Santorum to foam at the…um, the caudal portion of his alimentary canal.

Moments ago, Judge Jeffery White of the District Court for the Northern District of California ruled that the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) violates the Constitution’s equal protection clause….

Clearly, the Republicans need to make a Big Fucking Deal about this and push a Constitutional amendment defining Marriage as between one Man and one Women.

Yeah…let’s hope so.

Gosh…we have been deprived of Republican Reality TeeVee lately. Well…a debate started a few minutes ago. I’ll try live blogging it if I can find a stream on the intertubes or radio.

Go to town with your own commentary in the thread.

5:12: Got it…you can stream the debate here.

5:14: As I tune in, Romney and Santorum are doing the opening bickering shtick.

5:15: First words out of Newt’s mouth: “When I was speaker, we balanced the budget.”

5:17: Ron Paul earns the title Jedi Diphthong Master.

5:20: Rick: Just think what the teabaggers can do with Santorum!

5:25: Lost my feed while Mitt was talking about how conservative he was as MA Gov.

5:26: Rick Santorum puts on that “disgusted face”, usually reserved for sex-related matters, as he talks about Mitt Romney asking for and getting Olympics earmark money.

5:34: Pardon our brief live blogging interruption. My computer decided to die. All better now.

5:42: Yay for companies going bankrupt!!!!

5:46: The candidates and the audience tries to bully John. Newt Gingrich goes in to “indignant mode.” “Barack Obama voted to kill babies!”

5:51: Ron Paul: “The pill cannot be blamed for the immorality of our society.”

5:55: Newt: “Whenever the government provides services, they have the power of tyranny.” What the fuck?!?

5:57: Ron Paul goes into incoherent babble mode for a few seconds.

5:58: The audience is sure doing a lot of booing…not always clear who they are booing or why.

6:01: Mitt, if he becomes president, vows to throw tons of young people off their parent’s insurance, throw millions of poor people off of insurance, and make insurance unaffordable for millions of people with preexisting conditions. Nice.

6:31: *Snicker* Santorum said “feckless.”

6:34: Rick Santorum creates his own version of “the axis of evil”. The Santorum version is Syria and Iran.

6:36: Santorum: “A second Obama term will result in a cataclysm in the Middle East!!!!”

6:38: *Snicker* Mitt said “feckless.”

6:39: Mitt and Santorum are talking about the terrible news coming out of the Middle East. WTF? Nothing beats “bad news out of the Middle East” like, 4,000 dead U.S. soldiers, hundreds of thousands dead Iraqi’s, and zero weapons of mass destruction.

6:41: Santorum, “Politics is a team sport, folks.” Newt’s thinking, “marriage, too!”

6:55: Santorum implies that Mitt is “beating the tar out of him” with money. Ummm…Rick, that isn’t “tar.”

You won’t have Buddy to kick around any more:

Frustrated and largely ignored, Buddy Roemer is ending his bid for the Republican nomination and will instead seek the presidency on a third-party ticket.

Let’s get real…America is not prepared for a “President Buddy.”

Please join us tonight for an evening of Politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We start at 8:00pm, but some of us show up even earlier.

Yesterday, SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly (who sometimes stops by DL) summarized the Republican war on women. The Partisans have their own take on it:

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter. And Wednesday evening, the Burien chapter meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

A President’s Presidents Presidents’ day quiz.

The man behind the arena proposal.

Sen. Karen Keiser proposes holding a state garage sale to help fund financial aid for college students.

Are any of these gentleman your neighbor?

Moore’s law to the limit.

Air bags aren’t just for cars anymore.

Santorum surrogate on Obama’s, “Radical Islamic Policies”: