You’re not gonna use the pink ball. We’re not gonna let you do that. Not on camera. Friends don’t let friends use pink balls.
I’m pretty sure Rick prefers blue balls….
by Darryl — ,
You’re not gonna use the pink ball. We’re not gonna let you do that. Not on camera. Friends don’t let friends use pink balls.
I’m pretty sure Rick prefers blue balls….
by Darryl — ,
No surprise, really:
While he is yet to campaign in Wisconsin, Mitt Romney worked the state’s Republican voters from Dallas on Wednesday, holding a “telephone town hall” in which he embraced Gov. Scott Walker’s labor policies, endorsed U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan’s House budget….
Got that?
The problem for Romney is that these two positions taken together pretty much make him unelectable in a general election.
Romney is counting on being able to “hit the reset button”—start over in his political positioning—after winning the nomination.
Will it work in 2012? Can a campaign really erase history when access to video, audio, and print media has become so democratized? Or will truckloads of money succeed in buying a big case of collective amnesia?
by Darryl — ,
Mercifully, there is no new episode of the Primary Reality Show this evening. But a certain case being argued before the Supreme Court will be to talk of the tavern.
So please join us tonight for an evening of jurisprudence under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We’ll begin at our usual starting time of 8:00pm, but some folks will show up even earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There are DLs meeting all around Washington state, including in the Tri-Cities and Bellingham tonight, Burien on Wednesday night, as well as Yakima and South Bellevue next Monday.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
by Darryl — ,
The polls close in a few minutes in Lousiana, and if the pre-election polling hold, Rick Santorum should win easily.
Tonight’s win is important for Santorum, because there is mostly bad news for him in the near future primary Schedule. A week from Tuesday will be a triple header of D.C, Maryland, and Wisconsin. I doubt Santorum can win any of these, unless Mitt’s Etch-a-sketch wound turns into full-blown political septicemia. And after that, we have a April 24 mini-Super Tuesday, with Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. As it stands now, Romney should take all but Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.
I’ll probably get dragged away from the computer for various thing, but have at it in the comment threads.
5:59 pm (PDT): There are 20 delegates up for grab in LA (46 total). They are’t very important for Santorum who probably cannot win on delegates anyway. He needs a outright slaughter with hopes that it will catalyze a big momentum change in his favor.
6:03: Results can be found here and here.
6:12: Here is a livestream from NBC. From what I can tell, both NBC and CNN have called it for Santorum.
6:30: Barack Obama seem to be taking the Democratic primary in Louisiana with 69.3% of the vote (0.4% reporting).
7:50: With 83.1% of precincts reporting, here is what we have:
Santorum would get a “bragging rights” boost by getting over 50% and/or doubling Romney’s votes—perhaps the former will happen.
by Darryl — ,
Thom: Paul Ryan’s budget—most extreme corporate welfare.
Mark Fiore: iWhine.
Young Turks: Man sues Secret Service over Cheney “assault”.
White House: We the People — Your voice in our government.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Etch-a-Sketching:
President Obama nominates Dr. Jim Yong Kim for World Bank President.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Greenman: Michael Mann’s hockey stick under oath.
Jon on Cable News.
Ann Telnaes: The Going-Nowhere strategy in Afghanistan.
The Republican Primary Jousting Contest:
Thom: Westboro Baptist Church’s Rush advertisement.
Health Reform in Action: One mother’s story:
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Porn-con.
Ann Telnaes: Second anniversary of the Health Care law.
Young Turks: Five worst things about the G.O.P. Ryan budget.
Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” talks Occupy, Joe the Plumber’s campaign & more!
ONN: Joad Cressbeckler denies he incited mob to drag Congressman through briar patch.
Newsy: Congress hires their relatives.
Thom: Why is Tennessee teaching creationism?
Greenman: The search forLord Monckton.
More Skirmishes in the Republican War on Women™:
Health care reform across the country.
Alyona: Worst Proposed Internet laws of 2012.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Ryan’s budget, Zimmerman defenders and other topics.
White House: West Wing Week.
Death by Hoodie:
Ed: The return of Coupon Care.
Conversations with Valerie Plame and Joseph Wilson:
Maddow: Obama nominates true humanitarian for World Bank.
Jimmy Kimmel with some unnecessary censorship.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Santorum |
99.7% probability of winning | 0.3% probability of winning |
Mean of 329 electoral votes | Mean of 209 electoral votes |
There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | S | diff |
AZ | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 45 | S+1 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 55 | 35 | O+20 |
FL | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 45 | 43 | O+2 |
ME | PPP | 02-Mar | 04-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 61 | 29 | O+32 |
MO | Rasmussen | 14-Mar | 15-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 42 | 51 | S+9 |
NE | Rasmussen | 05-Mar | 05-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 37 | 49 | S+12 |
NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 37 | O+11 |
NJ | Fairleigh Dickinson U | 05-Mar | 11-Mar | 800 | 3.5 | 54 | 33 | O+21 |
NM | Rasmussen | 14-Feb | 14-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 55 | 37 | O+18 |
NY | Siena | 26-Feb | 29-Feb | 808 | 3.4 | 64 | 30 | O+34 |
NC | PPP | 08-Mar | 11-Mar | 804 | 3.5 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.3 | 39.5 | O+9.8 |
PA | PPP | 08-Mar | 12-Mar | 564 | 4.1 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 07-Mar | 12-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 53 | 39 | O+14 |
VA | Quinnipiac | 13-Mar | 18-Mar | 1034 | 3.1 | 49 | 40 | O+9 |
The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.
Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
Here are a few things we learn from gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna based on this audio taken yesterday before Kemper Freeman’s Eastside Transportation Association:
I need to say this again: Should he be elected, Rob McKenna will be Washington state’s Scott Walker.
There’s a meme in the mainstream media that chalks up these comparisons of McKenna to Walker as “demonetization” (with a figurative roll of the eyes).
In some ways this is fair. After all, aside from McKenna’s single biggest political blunder—joining the A.G. lawsuit against the 2009 health care reform law—he’s been cautious. He has dodged talking policy stands on hot-button issues where his views are likely to be unpopular. I mean, we can be sure McKenna doesn’t like light rail, same-sex marriage, public employee unions, death with dignity, etc. When asked about these things, he dodges. He bullshits his way out of expressing his opinion. He offers little about what a Gov. McKenna would do about particular issues. And, apparently, the state’s media aren’t skillful enough to coax non-weaselly answers from him.
So, we are forced to make inferences by an occasional controversial statement and by the people he endorses. We read between the lines. We parse his weaselly answers to try and understand what he’s dodging. We accept that he is a Republican in a state where moderate Republicans are nearly extinct.
Now we have a new piece of evidence—something stronger than inference from a dodged answer. We’ve know for a long time that McKenna doesn’t like Sound Transit and doesn’t care for light rail. But this is more: Rob McKenna has, essentially, made a campaign promise to work with Kemper Freeman, Jr. and company to find ways of killing light rail to the East Side.
Seems like something Scott Walker would do.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Romney |
100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
Mean of 339 electoral votes | Mean of 199 electoral votes |
It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted one of these analyses. Pollsters have been rather focused on the G.O.P. primary and not so much on the general election, so there have only been twelve new state head-to-head polls to incorporate into a new analysis.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AZ | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 40 | 51 | R+11 |
FL | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 46 | 43 | O+3 |
ME | PPP | 02-Mar | 04-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
MO | Rasmussen | 14-Mar | 15-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 41 | 50 | R+9 |
NE | Rasmussen | 05-Mar | 05-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 35 | 52 | R+17 |
NJ | Fairleigh Dickinson U | 05-Mar | 11-Mar | 800 | 3.5 | 50 | 37 | O+13 |
NM | Rasmussen | 14-Feb | 14-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 55 | 36 | O+19 |
NY | Siena | 26-Feb | 29-Feb | 808 | 3.4 | 60 | 34 | O+26 |
NC | PPP | 08-Mar | 11-Mar | 804 | 3.5 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
PA | PPP | 08-Mar | 12-Mar | 689 | 4.1 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 07-Mar | 12-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 46 | 40 | O+6 |
VA | Quinnipiac | 13-Mar | 18-Mar | 1034 | 3.1 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
The three new polls from two traditional swing states all favor Obama, with +3% in Florida and +6% & +7% in Pennsylvania.
The good news for Obama comes from three states that went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008: New Mexico where Obama has a remarkable +19% lead, Virginia where Obama is up by +8%, and North Carolina where Obama has ekes out a +3%.
The good news for Romney is Missouri, which McCain barely won in 2008, and that has now swung to the right: Romney leads Obama by a solid +9%.
The previous Monte Carlo analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes, and 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every time, so he is still expected to win an election held now with 100% probability. Obama receives an average of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
Another Tuesday, another chance to raise a glass and have a laugh over the G.O.P. primary melee.
There have been four Republican primary polls taken in Illinois this year, and they were all taken in March. Here’s what they show:
It is possible that the trend of Romney pulling ahead of Santorum is simple polling variability. Or, Santorum might be tanking, big time, from (1) alienating women through his War on Contraception™ and (2) alienating men through his War on Porn™, or both.
War is hell.
Anyway, this is an open thread, so have fun…but, you know, keep it Santorum-approved.
5:40: The polls in Illinois are closed and 15% of the vote is already counted (according to Google after typing “Illinois Primary” into its general search). So far, no signs of Romeny is not getting his ass, um, kicked by Santorum:
6:06: As Michael points out in the comment thread…that was quick! The election is called for Romney. Since Illinois does proportional allocation, the interesting question is how badly will Santorum lose. (I was in transit when the election was called, so sorry about the late update.)
6:12: It isn’t impossible for Romney to win the 1,144 delegates before the August G.O.P. convention. It would require a change in momentum for Mitt:
Even after polls close on the last contest, held on June 26 in Romney-friendly Utah, according to an analysis by ABC News the former Massachusetts governor may still be short of 1,144 delegates — the magic number a candidate will need to secure the nomination.
Based on 2008 presidential-primary results, conventional-wisdom expectations, statewide 2010 primary results by county, and polls, a conservative estimate suggests Romney will end this primary season just shy of the 1,144 delegates he’ll need to win.
…or some help from G.O.P. superdelegates:
The Republican Party, however, has its own version of Democratic superdelegates: members of the GOP who will attend the Republican National Convention in Tampa this August as voting delegates, not having been elected or appointed, but included by virtue of their party roles. In nearly every state and territory, the GOP chairman, RNC committeeman, and RNC committeewoman hold this status.
In all, 123 of these superdelegates will attend the Tampa convention — enough to push Romney over the edge if a majority of them support him. Romney already enjoys the backing of 33 of these automatic RNC delegates, included in the 521 delegates ABC News estimates he has won.
Remember during the 2008 Democratic convention how the Republicans criticized the hell out of the Democratic nominating process because of the superdelegates?
Yeah…typical fucking G.O.P. hypocrisy!
6:37: Mmmmm…Mexican pasta! I enjoyed it without reservation….I must hate America.
6:40: According to my sources (namely, Google), just over half the votes are counted:
It looks like Santorum is going to lose by double digits. Even so, how pathetic is Gingrich!
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight is the Illinois primary and, in addition to the G.O.P. presidential primary entertainment, there are a number of important primary races that could affect the balance of power in the House.
Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier to catch the earliest election returns.
I’ll be live blogging the results at horsesass.org.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter.
With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
by Darryl — ,
Thom: Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Ann Telnaes: John McCain responds to HBO’s Game Change.
Pap with John Nichols: The Wisconsin Uprising.
Comcast Newsmakers interviews Gov. Christine Gregoire.
The Republican War on Women™
Mark Fiore: Koney or Baloney.
Jon on Syrian President Assad.
White House: West Wing Week.
Tom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Thom: Somewhere Grover Norquist is freaking out.
Martin Bashir: On Sarah Palin and vetting.
The G.O.P. Freak Show Continues:
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News “Recording Cop” story forgot First Amendment.
Maddow does Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) on climate change “hoax” (via Indecision Forever).
Obama on American Energy.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Sam Seder: Dick Cheney fears Canada!
Jennifer Granholm and Ann O’Leary: What you need to know about Obama’s health care reform law.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Santorum and his war on porn.
Young Turks: Racist bumper stickers.
Comcast Newsmakers: State Sen. Ed Murray (D-43) on marriage equality:
Maddow: Ronald Reagan’s 1982 tax hike was the biggest ever in America’s history.
The Daily Show: U.S. cutting off funding for UNESCO.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Eli Sanders observes:
Continuing a theme he’s been pounding for a while now, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee just released a statement praising the senate Republicans’ turnabout on education funding.
For those who’ve been paying close attention (which may only be political reporters, but that’s not an unimportant constituency when you’re running for governor), Inslee’s statement is an implicit reminder that Republican Rob “Education Candidate” McKenna has been totally silent on his party’s slash-and-reverse education snafu.
Of course McKenna has been totally silent. It’s because he’s a fraud on education. A bullshitter. Someone who is simply embarking on a strategy of claiming he is pro-education because doing so should be beneficial to his campaign. McKenna’s wants to be the “Education Candidate”, the man who would restore Washington’s underfunded and underperforming primary education system and be a champion for higher education in Olympia.
McKenna’s problem is that his strategy is transparent and, ultimately, may not be very convincing. His position on education is largely at odds with the Republican Agenda. First, it requires raising taxes, big time. McKenna cannot implement his promised funding increases for education without raising taxes. Period. And there’s no fucking way McKenna is going to raise taxes. I mean, hell, we can’t even get our Democratic Governor to do that.
No…the increased funding for education thing is total vaporware. McKenna’s “commitment” to education, should he win, will boil down to instituting a series of G.O.P.-inspired “education reforms.” We get strong evidence for this in McKenna’s silence when Republicans slashed education in their ill-fated budget and his lack of comment on the restoration of education cuts in the current proposal.
by Darryl — ,
We’ve mentioned this contest before. Now there is just one day left in the Freewayblogger slogan contest.
Freewayblogger is looking for slogans about climate change for his next tour. Slogans should be short, smart, fit well into a rectangle, and look good in traffic.
The winner of the best slogan earns $1,000. Second and third places get $500 and $250, respectively. All winning entries get their slogans posted on freeways up and down the west coast.
Scarlet writes:
So far the entries have been well-meaning but a bit toothless – (“Global Warming is not Cool!”, “Respect Mother Earth”, fracking puns, etc.) My theory is that the sort of wry cynicism it takes to make for good sloganeering is the same sort that keeps people from entering contests…
Probably the best so far has been “Climate Change = Primate Change”.
What I’m looking for ideally is the climate change equivalent of a word like “Frankenfood” – that one simple word or phrase that practically forces people to think about things more critically. (Whoever came up with “Frankenfood” is a big hero of mine – man they cost some rich people a bunch of money…)
Send entries to freewayblogger – at – yahoo – dot – com. The deadline is tomorrow…March 15th.
by Darryl — ,
It’s another exciting evening of the Republican Reality Show, and we’ll be livebloggin’ it from the Montlake Ale House—at least to the extent that the news cycle, media availability and social environment allow it.
Tonight’s episode takes place in Mississippi and Alabama, where primary elections are happening, and Hawaii and American Samoa, where caucuses are held. Here are some details:
So, there you have it. Almost anything goes in the South, but Romney takes the South Pacific.
Go to town in the comment threads.
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We’ll be watching the latest episode of the G.O.P. Reality Show as the returns come in from the Michigan and Arizona primaries, and the Hawaii and American Samoa caucuses.
Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier than that to catch the earliest election returns.
I’ll be live blogging the results right here from the Montlake Ale House.
Can’t make it to Seattle? You’re in luck…there are DLs meeting all over Washington state. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday there are meetings of the Woodinville, Olympia, Yakima, and Shelton chapters.
With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
I no longer use Twitter or Facebook because Nazis. But until BlueSky is bought and enshittified, you can still follow me at @goldy.horsesass.org