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Libertarians sue to keep Mitt Romney off Washington ballot

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/16/12, 5:18 pm

The Libertarian Party of Washington State is suing to keep Mitt Romney off the ballot.

Their argument may be familiar to you…I wrote about it recently. By law, the Washington State Republican Party is a minor party and it hasn’t met the signature gathering requirements of a minor party for the fall Presidential election.

You can read the Libertarian’s complaint here. But let me briefly recap the argument.

In 2010, the WSRP didn’t nominate, or even endorse, anyone in the only statewide election. The reason, as I mentioned earlier, was that the Teabaggers were going to raise holy hell if Dino Rossi (who entered the race very late) got the nomination over uber-teabagger Clint Diddier for the U.S. Senate race.

Dino Rossi won a spot on the general election ballot by placing second in the primary. But, prior legal precedent has firmly established that our top-two primary is a “‘winnowing’ election designed to send only two candidates on to the general election without regard to political party nomination or affiliation,” rather than a nominating election.

So the Republicans failed to have a party nominee receive at least 5% of the vote in a 2010 statewide election as per RCW 29A.04.086:

“Major political party” means a political party of which at least one nominee for president, vice president, United States senator, or a statewide office received at least five percent of the total vote cast at the last preceding state general election in an even-numbered year.

They also failed to file the 1,000 signatures this year as is required for a minor party by RCW 29A.20.111 et seq.

Thus the Libertarians point out in their complaint:

Accordingly, the Washington State Republican Party is not entitled under the R.C.W. to have its nominee’s name printed on the November general election ballot, although its candidate (presumably Mr. Romney) is entitled to run as a write-in candidate.

In other words, the Libertarians (who are currently a minor party) want fair and equal treatment with the Republicans who, evidence suggests, is now a minor party.

And they have a point! It is how the law is written. And if the law is followed as written, there should be no Republican presidential ticket on our ballots this fall.

Here’s the thing. The relevant RCW actually predate the top-two primary. And, from one perspective, the major/minor party status law doesn’t quite jibe with a top-two primary system. In fact, in 2009, the SOS office pushed legislation that would have changed the major/minor party part of the law to better reflect a top-two primary. Alas, the bill (SB 5681) failed.

After my last post on this topic, I emailed the Secretary of State office to ask for their take on this issue. Dave Ammons respond with a helpful summary of the SOS position:

The Legislature has not repealed the old RCWs that were put in place for the old pick-a-party primary system, so many of the old definitions are still on the books. All three levels of federal courts (District Court, Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, and U.S. Supreme Court) have commented at some point in the 8 year litigation over the Top Two Primary system that Initiative 872 impliedly repealed the old party nomination procedures for the pick-a-party primary. The upshot is that we have adapted many procedures for the Top Two Primary in WAC.

WAC 434-208-130 define major and minor political parties. The relevant paragraphs of the WAC state:

(1) For purposes of RCW 29A.04.086, “major political party” means a political party whose nominees for president and vice-president received at least five percent of the total votes cast for that office at the last preceding presidential election. A political party that qualifies as a major political party retains such status until the next presidential election at which the presidential and vice-presidential nominees of that party do not receive at least five percent of the votes cast.

In other words, the SOS office is relying on a WAC that changes the RCW, under the argument that the RCW’s major/minor party definitions were implicitly “repealed” when the pick-a-party procedures were replaced for the top-two primary.

The argument might make sense, except for two things. First, the major/minor party definitions as they exist under RCW are a little awkward to deal with, but they are certainly not incompatible with a system that primarily has top two primaries (except for presidential elections). Therefore, an argument can (and will!) be made that the definitions were not implicitly repealed as suggested by the SOS office. And you cannot use the WAC to “override” the RCW.

The second point is that the legislature actually considered the issue in SB 5681. They had a chance to change the law to dovetail with the definitions in the WAC. And they declined to do so!

It is a fascinating problem! That said, I don’t relish the idea of Mitt Romney being kept off the ballot.

What I enjoy about this predicament is just how fucked up the Teabaggers have made things for the WSRP. In almost any other year, the Republicans would have had the clone-like unity to rally behind the “chosen” candidate. They would have proudly nominated him and, knowingly or not, maintained their legal eligibility as a major party under all definitions. But not in 2010.

This is why I always keep a good stock of popcorn in my pantry….

Update (11:45 pm): I modified the post to remove an extraneous quote that was accidentally left in the original. I clarified the language in a couple of spots, too.

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Poll Analysis: Obama would certainly win an election today

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/14/12, 5:53 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney with 336 to 202 Electoral votes, and a near 100% probability of winning an election held now.

The past week has produced twelve new polls (including our first poll in D.C.) to weigh in on the contest:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1463 — 45 50 R+5
DC Heart+Mind Strategies 26-Jul 29-Jul 100 — 83 11 O+72
IA Rasmussen 08-Aug 08-Aug 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
MO SurveyUSA 09-Aug 12-Aug 585 4.1 43.6 45.5 R+1.9
NH PPP 09-Aug 12-Aug 1055 3.0 51 45 O+6
NH U NH 01-Aug 12-Aug 555 4.1 49 46 O+3
OH Rasmussen 13-Aug 13-Aug 500 4.5 45 45 tie
OH PPP 09-Aug 12-Aug 961 3.2 48 45 O+3
VA Rasmussen 07-Aug 07-Aug 500 4.5 48 46 O+2
VA Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1412 — 49 45 O+4
WI Marquette 02-Aug 05-Aug 1428 — 50.0 44.7 O+5.4
WI Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1412 — 51 45 O+6

(Note: This section was updated because I described the wrong poll earlier.) The new Colorado poll has Romney with a +5% lead over Obama. As it happens, this is the oldest of the three current polls in Colorado. Together they give Romney a 64% to 36% probability of taking the state in a hypothetical election held now:

ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Colorado

Our first poll for Washington D.C. is pathetically small at 100 respondents (it is reported as a sub-sample of a larger poll of the region). But the poll is clear…Obama is up big-time in our Nation’s Capitol.

The new Rasmussen Iowa poll offers Romney a +2% edge over Obama. As the only current poll, the analysis finds Romney taking the state with a 63% probability today. The polling suggests that the race has tightened up, so that a Romney lead is possible:

ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Iowa

The Survey USA Missouri poll has Romney leading Obama by +1.9%. This makes 6 polls in a row with Romney leading in the state, although the other five polls had Romney up by +6% or more.

Two New Hampshire polls give Obama the lead: +6% in one and +3% in the other. Obama has now led in the past 8 polls in the state, going back three months.

Two new polls in Ohio, and one has the race all tied up at 45%, and the other poll goes for Obama by +3%. Romney has not led in the state in nine consecutive polls going back to early June. The polling history suggests that Obama’s lead is slight, but real: ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Ohio

A pair of Virginia polls goes to Obama: +2% in the most recent and +4% in the other. Romney has not led in any of the seven Virginia polls taken in July and August. Like Ohio, the Virginia polling data suggest Obama’s lead is slight, but real: ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Virginia

A pair of Wisconsin polls give Obama +5.4% and +6% leads over Romney. Again, we find Romney has not led in any of the seven polls taken in July and August.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections finds Obama wins every time. Obama receives (on average) 334 (-2) to Romney’s 204 (+2) electoral votes. Obama slipped very slightly in average electoral votes. Even so, if the election was held today, Obama would almost certainly win.

Of course, a lot can happen in the 90 days until the election….

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/14/12, 4:00 pm

DLBottlePolitics is a hot topic, even during these dog days of summer. So, please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.








Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet. The new Longview chapter holds their inaugural meeting at 6:00pm Wednesday at the Monticello Hotel. The new South Seattle chapter holds their inaugural meeting on Wednesday, 8:00pm at Lottie’s Lounge, 4900 Rainier Avenue. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday. Finally, next Monday, the Yakima and Olympia chapters of DL meet.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 8/10/12, 11:58 pm

Stephen: Gingrich is a baby-eating werewolf (via Crooks and Liars).

Roy Zimmerman: Iowa Edition of Vote Republican.

Mark Fiore: Dark Matters.

Sam Seder and Glenn Greenwald: The normalization of extremism.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Colorado edition:

SlateTV: Missouri “Right to Pray” amendment lets kids opt out of evolution .

Attack!!!!!

  • SlateTV: The gloves are off!
  • Young Turks: Romney attacks Obama with welfare ad.
  • Bill Press: DNC says Romney Campaign is ‘hitting below the belt’
  • Maddow: Welfare ad “dog-whistle” racism from Mitt Romney.
  • Young Turks: ‘Son Of Boss’ Ad
  • Newsy: Rep. Allen West fights ad.
  • Sam Seder: Tasteless fear-mongering anti-Obama ad asks America “Are we safer?”
  • Jon on Mitt’s flailing ‘Romneycare’ defense (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Newsy: Obama ad questions whether Obama has paid income tax.
  • Buzz60: New Romney ad aims at Catholic swing state voters.
  • Maddow: The SuperPAC political week
  • Jon: mocks conservative freakout over ‘Priorities USA Action’ ad.
  • Young Turks: Alan West punches woman in face in new ad.

Sam Seder: Mississippi church refuses a Black couple’s wedding.

Pap: Welcome to the era of Super PACs.

Roy Zimmerman: Montana Edition of Vote Republican.

NPR: Special Disaster Edition of It’s All Politics

Ann Telnaes: SuperPACs and their handlers put on a silly show.

Willard:

  • Newsy: Rep. Ryan will be named Romney Running mate on Saturday Morning.
  • SlateTV: Obama’s new nickname for his opponent.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, New York edition.
  • Bill Press: Mitt’s tax problem.
  • Ed and Pap: Harry Reid is right about Mitt’s taxes
  • The Spin Room: Romney’s running mate.
  • Jenn with UW Prof. Matt Barreto: Can Romney make a dent in the Latino vote?
  • Stephanie and Markos: Was Jon Huntsman Sr. Sen. Reid’s source?
  • Young Turks: How you can stop paying so much in taxes—just like Mitt Romney
  • Newsy: Can Romney recover from a very bad month?
  • SlateTV: Some high profile endorsements for Romeny.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt Romney doesn’t know anything about dressage? YEAH, RIGHT!
  • Jenn with Democratic strategist Kiki McLean: Mitt’s running mate.

ONN: Onion Week in Review.

SlateTV: Will Ted Cruz’s prime time GOP convention speaking spot appease the Tea Party?

Stephen looks back on Obama’s war on pizza.

White House: West Wing Week.

This Week in GOP Voter Suppression:

  • Pap: The Pennsylvania effort to suppress the vote.
  • Maddow: New ID laws.
  • Jon on GOP exaggerated voter fraud claims (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Sam Seder: PA is the new FL in voter suppression.
  • Sharpton: Republicans ramp up voter suppression effort.
  • Sen. Scott Brown is disturbed by push to register welfare recipients to vote (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Rep. Allen West defends disenfranchising Ohio voters (via Crooks and Liars).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Mitt’s VeePee

by Darryl — Friday, 8/10/12, 11:56 am

For months now, there has been low-level speculation about Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA-5) being selected to be Mitt Romey’s VP (e.g. here).

It makes sense in that it doesn’t defy the laws of physics or anything (well…not that the laws of physics would hold back Republicans from attempting something). Rep. McMorris Rogers is over 35. She is the highest ranking Republican woman in the House. It’s not like she only served 1/2 a term as Governor in some low-population state, or anything. And, McMorris Rodgers did have one of the earliest Republican VP Nominee Intrade pages.

Alas, these days, she’s a Republican VP Nominee penny stock.

Still…even if it’s a long shot, I predict Mittens will pick Cathy for VP. What do I have to lose? If he picks her, I’ll look like a genius. And if not, my prediction will be lost in a sea of unsuccessful VP predictions from the chattering classes.

These days political pundit seem all hyped-up over Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI-1). I guess it makes sense….VPRyan

For Republicans, having an actor in the White House is political comfort food.

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Open thread 8/10

by Darryl — Friday, 8/10/12, 10:21 am

As if we couldn’t tell. After Obama was elected, what was the Senate G.O.P. plan for governance? Make a public showing of wanting to work with Obama, but then oppose everything.

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) came to Bellevue yesterday to tell Republicans he’ll blame them when McKenna loses.

The Borowitz Report interviews Mitt Romney.

Complaint filed with PDC alleging that McKenna campaign broke disclosure laws.

Guess who else Romney murdered!

Puget Sound area traffic this weekend…is going to SUCK.

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Open thread 8/9

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/9/12, 10:09 am

MoJo: Tea Party shoots itself in to foot again.

Connelly: The state Republican Party predicted, early this year, that it would “flip” enough Democratic-held seats to gain a majority in the 49-member Washington State Senate. The issue is now very much in doubt.

Tax experts assess how likely it is that Romney paid no taxes for a decade.

Eli Sanders attempts to interview Bruce Danielson.

Charges brought in an actual case of election fraud. Wanna guess which party?

Markos: We are winning! (Of course, HA readers have known this all along.)

Mini-essay. Which of our local papers actually wield some influence among the electorate? The Stranger endorses a third-party candidate against Frank Chopp…as a write-in, and she likely comes in second place. How did the Seattle Times do? Not so well.

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The disgraceful under-representation of Washington’s Hispanic voters

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/8/12, 5:16 pm

The Stranger’s Eli Sanders has been on top of the Danielson-Gonzalez Supreme Court race for a long time now. In fact, I think he deserves some of the credit for raising awareness that led to an election result in which a highly qualified candidate with the Hispanic surname defeated the highly unqualified candidate with the lilly-White surname.

But even in victory, Eli has an important point to make about failure:

The results are now clear: rural voters, for the most part, pick the white guy over the Latino guy.

If Gonzalez hadn’t spent over $260,000 to combat this dynamic—and if urban Washingtonians hadn’t sounded the alarm—then we’d now have a Justice Bruce Danielson.

This is a disgracefully ignorant and dangerous way to pick our supreme court justices.

There is another point to make here as well.

The deal is this. Every single county East of the Cascades went for the white guy. Most of them did so by 60% or more, including Adams and Douglas counties that went for Danielson by over 70%.

The counties with the highest proportion of Hispanic population (from 2010 census data) are Franklin (63.8%), Adams (57.9%), Yakima (45.6%), Grant (39.5%), Chelan (27.5%), Douglas (26.7%), Walla Walla (21.4%), Okanogan (19.2%), and Benton (18.0%).

All of these counties but Benton voted for Danielson in excess of 60%. That’s right…Franklin county, with a 63.8% Hispanic population went for Danielson by 64.3%. And Adams county, with a 57.9% Hispanic population went for Danielson by 70.6%.

Now, there may be several reasons why counties with a high proportion of Hispanic individuals have voters that overwhelmingly vote Republican and vote against a highly qualified individual with a Hispanic surname running for Supreme Court.

The Hispanic population may be younger, so that many are not old enough to vote. A certain proportion may be non-citizens. A lower rate of English literacy among Hispanic voters may suppress voter turn-out. Hey, there may even be some fraction of Hispanic voters who really believe it’s in their best interest to vote Republican (yeah…right!).

What we can say is that the interests of the considerable Hispanic population in Washington state for whatever reasons are not being served by our electoral system.

I find that disgraceful!

I don’t know what the story is behind this failure. Frankly, this looks like a failure on the part of Democrats to conduct effective registration drives, voter education efforts, and put GOTV operations into the field in these counties.

Whatever the reason, it needs to change!

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Open thread 8/8

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/8/12, 9:09 am

Election results:

  • Whew! Gonzalez ahead in Supreme Court race
  • First CD: DelBene and Koster
  • Gov: “Inslee earned 46.8 percent of the vote and McKenna earned 42.9”
  • Seattle libraries, county juvenile-justice levies are up
  • Re: last night—Publicola election miscellanea
  • WA SOS elections page
  • Nationally, a rough night for incumbents

A brief history of that Badass Harry Reid

Washington fights to keep tourism alive.

The MittVeePstakes are heating up.

“Mitt Romney is laboring under the lowest personal popularity ratings for a presumptive presidential nominee in midsummer election-year polls back to 1984.”

Caught on video: Hillary Clinton dancing in South Africa!

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Poll Analysis: Obama gains in electoral votes

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 6:40 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 336 electoral votes Mean of 202 electoral votes

The previous analysis of state head-to-head polls gave President Barack Obama the lead over Romney by an average of 327 to 211 electoral votes and a 99.6% probability of winning a hypothetical late-July election.

We have lots of new polls weighing in on the situation:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AL Research Consultants 23-Jul 26-Jul 600 4.0 34 59 R+25
AZ PPP 23-Jul 25-Jul 833 — 41 52 R+11
CO Rasmussen 06-Aug 06-Aug 500 4.5 47 47 tie
CO PPP 02-Aug 05-Aug 779 3.5 49 43 O+6
CT PPP 26-Jul 29-Jul 771 3.5 51 43 O+8
FL PPP 26-Jul 29-Jul 871 3.3 48 47 O+1
FL Quinnipiac 24-Jul 30-Jul 1177 — 51 45 O+6
GA SurveyUSA 29-Jul 29-Jul 1169 — 42 50 R+8
GA InsiderAdvantage 24-Jul 24-Jul 591 — 40.5 49.8 R+9.3
IN Rasmussen 31-Jul 01-Aug 400 5.0 35 51 R+16
MI EPIC/MRA 24-Jul 31-Jul 600 4.0 48 42 O+6
MO Rasmussen 30-Jul 30-Jul 500 4.5 44 50 R+6
MO Mason-Dixon 23-Jul 25-Jul 625 4.0 42 51 R+9
MO WeAskAmerica 24-Jul 24-Jul 1172 3.0 39.7 49.0 R+9.3
NV Rasmussen 24-Jul 24-Jul 500 4.5 50 45 O+5
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson 23-Jul 29-Jul 849 3.5 49 36 O+13
NJ Monmouth 18-Jul 22-Jul 535 4.2 50 42 O+8
NC PPP 02-Aug 05-Aug 813 3.4 49 46 O+3
NC Rasmussen 01-Aug 01-Aug 500 4.5 44 49 R+5
OH Quinnipiac 24-Jul 30-Jul 1193 — 50 44 O+6
OH WeAskAmerica 24-Jul 24-Jul 1115 3.0 47.8 40.2 O+7.6
OH Magellan Strategies 23-Jul 24-Jul 597 4.0 45 43 O+2
PA Quinnipiac 24-Jul 30-Jul 1168 — 53 42 O+11
SD Neilson Brothers 19-Jul 23-Jul 546 4.2 42 49 R+7
VA Capitol Correspondent 30-Jul 31-Jul 563 4.1 44.2 39.6 O+4.6
WA SurveyUSA 01-Aug 02-Aug 524 4.4 54.1 37.0 O+17.1
WI Rasmussen 25-Jul 25-Jul 500 4.5 49 46 O+3

Romney is running strong in the places you’d expect: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia (in 2 polls), and South Dakota.

Indiana has been something of a mystery. Obama eked out a win in 2008, and there hasn’t been much polling because the state law makes polling difficult. The new (very small) Rasmussen poll finds Romney with a solid lead.

Missouri is also looking pretty solid for Romney with a +6, +9, and +9 in the new polls.

North Carolina goes both ways, giving Obama a +3% and Romney a +5% lead. Combined with one other recent poll, Obama’s chances in the state are a 53% probability of winning (now):

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12North Carolina

Two Colorado polls give Obama the edge there, with an 81% probability of taking the state.

Florida gives Obama a tiny (+1%) lead. He has now taken three consecutive polls, and four of the six current polls.

Remember when Pennsylvania used to be considered a swing state? It’s pretty hard to make a straight-faced argument that the state will switch to Romney:

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12Pennsylvania

The other swing state, Ohio, gets three polls this week, and all three go for Obama. Here again, Ohio is pretty consistently putting Obama over Romney:

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12Ohio

Wisconsin gives Obama a slender +3% lead. This is the fifth consecutive lead for Obama, going back to mid-June. The two polls, taken together, give Obama a 96% chance of taking the state.

Nevada has Obama up by a single-digit (+5%) lead over Romney, but there can be little question about the state now. Consider this: Romney has not led in the last eleven polls. One has to go back to March—March of 2011, not 2012—to find a poll with Romney in the lead.

With this Michigan poll, giving Obama a +6% lead, Obama has “won” three of the four current polls.

Virginia almost matches Florida for being a swing state. This time, Obama takes the lead. Perhaps we can discern a small Obama edge in the recent polling history:

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12Virginia

Finally, we have no surprises in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Washington giving Obama the lead.

With all these new polls, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,968 times and Romney wins 32 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 (+9) to Romney’s 202 (-9) electoral votes. Based on simulations, in an election held now, we’d expect Obama to have almost a 100.0% probability of beating Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 3:38 pm

It is election day in Washington state. So fill out that ballot, drop it in the mail or a drop box and then join us for an evening of politics, conversation, and election watching over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Poll: Inslee 48%, McKenna 45%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 9:16 am

A new poll by SurveyUSA on behalf of King 5 finds former WA-01 Congressman Jay Inslee leading state Attorney General Rob McKenna, 48% to 45% in the race to be Washington’s next governor. The poll surveyed 524 people likely to vote in the November general election (4.4 MOE), and was conducted from August 1 – 2 with calls made to landlines and cellphones.

A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections, finds Inslee with 687,504 wins and McKenna with 301,583 wins. The analysis suggests that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 69.5% probability and McKenna would win with a 30.5% probability. Since Inslee’s has under a 95% probability of winning, the lead is not considered “statistically significant.”

Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulated elections:

SurveyUSA-Aug

Although crosstabs are not available yet for the gubernatorial results, SurveyUSA has released results for the presidential contest taken at the same time. The poll finds Obama leading Romney 54% to 37%. The partisan make-up was 36% Democrat, 27% Republican and 35% independent, pretty much matching the previous Elway poll (35% D, 27%R, 38% R). The composition is more Democratic-leaning than was found in the July SurveyUSA poll (33% D, 30% R, and 36% I).

This is the second consecutive poll showing Inslee with the lead. The previous poll was by Elway and showed Inslee with a 7% lead and an 87% probability winning an election held then. Days before that, a Survey USA poll found McKenna up by +1 and a 58% probability of winning an election then. The polling history shows a long term shift from a solid McKenna advantage to a weak Inslee advantage:

GenericCongress07Jul12-07Aug12Washington

Eleven months ago, McKenna was clearly the front-runner in the race. Then, after two solid early February polls, a couple of later February polls showed the race tied. Since then McKenna has usually held small leads in the polls. Until the last few weeks.

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Open Thread 6/8

by Darryl — Monday, 8/6/12, 8:59 am

Curiosity didn’t kill the Rover. But controversy erupts.

Tomorrow is election day. Having difficulties completing your ballot? Here is the Progressive Voter’s Guide from Fuse.

Actual Headline: “Northwest ties to Hiroshima remembered on A-bomb anniversary”. Ummm…are we supposed to celebrate or something????

Sour note: Sikh Temple shooter was “a ‘frustrated neo-Nazi’ who led a racist white supremacist band.”

The good news for Mitt is that he “probably earned more than $50 million, and possibly as much as $60 million from the Italian directory sale of Seat Pagine Gialle SpA…. The deal turned into one of the biggest windfalls of his tenure.” The bad news: Mitt can’t really go to Italy anymore.

More science for the nutbaggers to deny: The impact of ocean acidification on shellfish.

Saving Town Hall: Stanwood edition

Saving Town Hall: Darrington edition

Romney outraises Obama for third month in a row.

WA-10 Republican candidate Stan Flemming’s “atypical loan pushed the boundaries of federal law.”

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Electoral College scenarios

by Darryl — Saturday, 8/4/12, 11:05 pm

Folks interested in examining Electoral College scenarios may find Michael Tomasky’s Daily Beast article of interest:

So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say. Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.

So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?

Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states….

Read the rest here.

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The Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 8/3/12, 11:59 pm

Mark Fiore: Bishops versus Nuns!

Pap: The psychology of Republican voters.

SlateTV: Contraception mandate is “like 9/11, Pearl Harbor.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Illinois edition:

Willard:

  • Jon on Mitt’s trip to London (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Mitt Romney’s tax return hunt.
  • Obama on Mitt Romney’s tax hike on the middle class.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney, blaming job losses on President is “poppycock”.
  • Behind the dressage: Rafalca.
  • Sam Seder: Universal Healthcare is great…for everyone but america!
  • Stephanie Cutter: Mitt’s tax hike!
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s trip continues.
  • Mitt Romney: Jobs creator!
  • Young Turks: Why aren’t Birfers demanding to seem Romney’s tax returns?
  • Pap: Mushroom Cloud Mitt should frighten us all.
  • SlateTV: Mitt’s bad trip to Poland.
  • Mitt won’t answer for his middle class tax hike
  • Sam Seder: Romney spokesperson to reporters, “Kiss my ass.”
  • Young Turks: Harry Reid hits Romney hard over (possibly) not paying tax.
  • Maddow: Romney demanded past opponents release tax returns.
  • Romney Spokesperson to Press: “Kiss my ass. This is a Holy site for the Polish people. Show some respect.”
  • Zina Saunders: Romney, Job Creator.
  • One more “unwelcomed moment” ends Mitt’s trip
  • Romney: Russia is our number one adversary?!?
  • Sam Seder: Harry is right to question Mitt’s tax returns
  • Maddow: Romney caught in a lie on tax return demands.
  • SlateTV: Mitt v. Harry.
  • Jon: The gaffes continue in Israel and Poland (via Crooks and Liars).

Stephen ‘salutes’ Sen. McConnell for attempting to stop Obamacare’s contraceptive mandate (via Crooks and Liars).

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, California edition.

Analysis: How do Obama and Romney stack up on foreign policy? (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Music video: David LaMotte sings “Hope”.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Minnesota edition.

Food Politics:

  • Chick-Fil-A sets the record straight.
  • Jon: Chicken sandwich activism (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • The official Chick-fil-A appreciation day video:
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Chick fil-A vs. the Gays
  • Rahm Emanuel welcomes you to Chicago.
  • Sam Seder: hate a gay, eat a processed chicken.
  • KFC loves gays!
  • Stephen: Who Will Protect The Vegetables? (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Pap: Republican hate peddlers divide America.

Sam Seder and Sarah Silverman catch up on movies and politics.

Jon: Old Man Fight—Cheney vs McCain (via Crooks and Liars).

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Delaware edition.

Ann Telnaes: Justice Scalia on money in politics.

That Nutjob from Iowa:

  • Rep. Steve King gets in touch with his inner Birfer (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Doggies against Rep. Steve King (via Crooks and Liars).

White House: West Wing Week.

SlateTV: Tea-time in Texas.

Alyona: Is defense spending really our top priority?

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Connecticut edition:

Sam Seder: Dems add gay marriage to their platform.

Stephen sacrifices a baby to appease Grover Norquist (via Crooks and Liars).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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