| Obama | Romney |
| 99.0% probability of winning | 1.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 321 electoral votes | Mean of 217 electoral votes |
[Note: See update at the end of the post]
Last week’s analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney, 327 to 211 electoral votes and with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then. With 18 new state head-to-head polls weighing in on the contest, Mitt Romney has gained a little more. Here are the polls:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | SurveyUSA | 17-Jul | 20-Jul | 647 | 3.9 | 47.9 | 43.4 | O+4.5 |
| MI | Rasmussen | 23-Jul | 23-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
| MI | Mitchell | 23-Jul | 23-Jul | 825 | 3.4 | 44 | 45 | R+1 |
| MI | PPP | 21-Jul | 23-Jul | 579 | 4.1 | 53 | 39 | O+14 |
| MN | SurveyUSA | 17-Jul | 20-Jul | 552 | 4.3 | 45.9 | 39.7 | O+6.2 |
| NV | WeAskAmerica | 17-Jul | 18-Jul | 1092 | 3.0 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
| NV | Magellan Strategies | 16-Jul | 17-Jul | 665 | 3.8 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| NJ | Quinnipiac | 09-Jul | 15-Jul | 1623 | 2.4 | 49 | 38 | O+11 |
| NM | PPP | 13-Jul | 16-Jul | 724 | 3.6 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
| NY | Quinnipiac | 17-Jul | 23-Jul | 1779 | 2.3 | 55 | 32 | O+23 |
| NC | Civitas | 16-Jul | 18-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 18-Jul | 18-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| PA | PPP | 21-Jul | 23-Jul | 758 | 3.6 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
| PA | Rasmussen | 18-Jul | 18-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 44 | O+4 |
| VA | Rasmussen | 16-Jul | 17-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| VA | Quinnipiac | 10-Jul | 16-Jul | 1673 | 2.4 | 44 | 44 | tie |
| WA | SurveyUSA | 16-Jul | 17-Jul | 630 | 4.0 | 46.0 | 37.3 | O+8.7 |
| WI | WeAskAmerica | 17-Jul | 18-Jul | 1162 | 2.9 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
Let’s get New Jersey and New York out of the way. They both have double digit leads for Obama.
Obama takes the latest Florida poll (+4.5%), giving him three of the five current polls, and a 62% probability of taking the state at this point.
In New Mexico Obama slips from +11 in the previous poll to a more moderate +5%. Even though a Romney victory at this point still seems unlikely, there is some hint at a softening of support for Obama:
Three polls in Michigan display remarkable heterogeneity. Obama takes one by double digits, one by single digits, and Romney takes one with a +1. The overall trend still looks more favorable for Obama:
Obama gets a +6.2% in Minnesota which actually seems weak. But the graph of polls does not really indicate any radical change in support for Obama over the long run:
Nevada continues to trend Obama, with a +4% and a +6%.
North Carolina gives Obama a slim +1% lead over Romney, but Romney leads in three of the five current polls. At this point, Romney would take the state with 67% probability.
Obama gets a small +2% lead in the Ohio poll. Obama now leads in four consecutive polls for the state, dating back to early June.
Pennsylvania goes +4 and +6 for Obama in two new polls. He leads in all three current polls and would be expected to win the state with a 98.8% probability.
Two new Virginia polls suggest a very tight race. Obama leads Romney by +1% in one and the other is a tie. The five current polls give Obama a slight edge and a 58% probability in an election held now.
In Wisconsin, the latest poll goes +7% for Obama. Obama leads by about the same amount in all three current polls.
Here in Washington Obama is up by +8.7% over Romney. The longer trend strongly hints at an Obama victory here:
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,012 times and Romney wins 988 times (including the 179 ties). Obama receives (on average) 321 (-6) to Romney’s 217 (+6) electoral votes. Obama has a 99.0% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney has a 1.0% (+0.6%) probability of winning an election held now.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.46% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
- 324 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 2.03% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 1.92% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 1.90% probability
- 314 electoral votes with a 1.79% probability
- 310 electoral votes with a 1.77% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.0%, Romney wins 1.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 321.1 (21.9)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 216.9 (21.9)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 323 (277, 360)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 215 (178, 261)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 108 | |||
| Strong Obama | 134 | 242 | ||
| Leans Obama | 86 | 86 | 328 | |
| Weak Obama | 13 | 13 | 13 | 341 |
| Weak Romney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 197 |
| Leans Romney | 26 | 26 | 196 | |
| Strong Romney | 141 | 170 | ||
| Safe Romney | 29 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 484 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 475 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 1.9 | 98.1 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 679 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 780 | 59.7 | 40.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 2 | 1505 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 79.7 | 20.3 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1239 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 5 | 3363 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 61.7 | 38.3 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 404 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 2.6 | 97.4 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 447 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.4 | 93.6 | ||
| IA | 6 | 1 | 1029 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 89.7 | 10.3 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 516 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 488 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 421 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 86.4 | 13.6 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1* | 792 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 848 | 58.5 | 41.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 3 | 1717 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 95.9 | 4.1 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1 | 472 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 86.6 | 13.4 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1* | 455 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 11.3 | 88.7 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 372 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 9.4 | 90.6 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 553 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 1.4 | 98.6 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 11.3 | 88.7 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 252 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 47.2 | 52.8 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 2 | 1643 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 94.5 | 5.5 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1 | 442 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 72.2 | 27.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 1412 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 2 | 1852 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NY | 29 | 2 | 2267 | 63.5 | 36.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 5 | 2772 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 32.7 | 67.3 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1 | 348 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 1.1 | 98.9 | ||
| OH | 18 | 2 | 1018 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 72.6 | 27.4 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 448 | 30.4 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 631 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 93.8 | 6.2 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 2225 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 85.2 | 14.8 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 442 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.6 | 95.4 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 654 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 8.1 | 91.9 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 460 | 38.9 | 61.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 1149 | 27.7 | 72.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 528 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 5 | 4083 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 57.5 | 42.5 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 525 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 95.5 | 4.5 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 373 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.8 | 99.2 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 2811 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Update: Sam Minter points out that I reversed the numbers for Obama and Romney on the Civitas NC poll. It should be Romney +1. So Romney takes four of the five current NC polls and probably has something closer to 70% or 80% probability of winning the state at this point.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
The Confederacy, (some of) the farmers and the Mormons – that’s what that EV map looks like to me.
It is not a winning constituency.
Much to Cereal’s chagrin, it doesn’t look like anger at ‘union thugs’ is delivering Wisconsin to the Rmoney camp, either.
Perhaps if Cereal could articulate an affirmative argument for a Romney presidency, just a few somewhat fleshed-out policy highlights, something fairly simple, we could all get our heads around what he and our other right-wing friends find so compelling about Willard…
Perhaps the national Willard campaign could pick up his argument, because I haven’t seen them able to assert any detailed positions either – perhaps Cereal could help them with that.
While the softening of support for Obama in places like NM and CO isn’t good, given all the negative advertising it’s also not very surprising.
# 3: Mitt’s “foreign policy” address went on for the better part of a half-hour without giving any specifics about what his foreign policy would be. You could say the same thing about his budget policy. Romney’s hoping to slip through the election without getting pinned down to any single position.
@3:
@5:
Guys, you miss the point. Romney does have a very specific, very consistent, very compelling (to some) argument for his Presidential candidacy:
That’s a much-more-than-sufficient reason (for some). Especially when you understand that it’s code for an unspoken, but crystal-clear, message. It’s the only point on which Romney’s position has not changed.
No, it’s not a reason to back Romney any more that the other occupants of the GOP clown-car. What brought him to the top of the heap was money and his relative non-craziness. (No personality is better than the whack-job alternatives).
Tweets from right-wing Brit newspaper columnist James Chapman about Romney visit with Brit government:
NAILED!
What a complete loser, shell of a human being. Mitt is an object lesson in the failings of our meritocratic system to reward actual merit.
Watch out, N, or Cereal is going to accuse you of yelling, “Racism!!” without provocation, and implying that you have no other argument. He’d be wrong, of course, as is almost always is, but he’ll whine nonetheless.