|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 336 electoral votes||Mean of 202 electoral votes|
The previous analysis of state head-to-head polls gave President Barack Obama the lead over Romney by an average of 327 to 211 electoral votes and a 99.6% probability of winning a hypothetical late-July election.
We have lots of new polls weighing in on the situation:
Romney is running strong in the places you’d expect: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia (in 2 polls), and South Dakota.
Indiana has been something of a mystery. Obama eked out a win in 2008, and there hasn’t been much polling because the state law makes polling difficult. The new (very small) Rasmussen poll finds Romney with a solid lead.
Missouri is also looking pretty solid for Romney with a +6, +9, and +9 in the new polls.
North Carolina goes both ways, giving Obama a +3% and Romney a +5% lead. Combined with one other recent poll, Obama’s chances in the state are a 53% probability of winning (now):
Two Colorado polls give Obama the edge there, with an 81% probability of taking the state.
Florida gives Obama a tiny (+1%) lead. He has now taken three consecutive polls, and four of the six current polls.
Remember when Pennsylvania used to be considered a swing state? It’s pretty hard to make a straight-faced argument that the state will switch to Romney:
The other swing state, Ohio, gets three polls this week, and all three go for Obama. Here again, Ohio is pretty consistently putting Obama over Romney:
Wisconsin gives Obama a slender +3% lead. This is the fifth consecutive lead for Obama, going back to mid-June. The two polls, taken together, give Obama a 96% chance of taking the state.
Nevada has Obama up by a single-digit (+5%) lead over Romney, but there can be little question about the state now. Consider this: Romney has not led in the last eleven polls. One has to go back to March—March of 2011, not 2012—to find a poll with Romney in the lead.
With this Michigan poll, giving Obama a +6% lead, Obama has “won” three of the four current polls.
Virginia almost matches Florida for being a swing state. This time, Obama takes the lead. Perhaps we can discern a small Obama edge in the recent polling history:
Finally, we have no surprises in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Washington giving Obama the lead.
With all these new polls, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,968 times and Romney wins 32 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 (+9) to Romney’s 202 (-9) electoral votes. Based on simulations, in an election held now, we’d expect Obama to have almost a 100.0% probability of beating Romney.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 341 electoral votes with a 4.11% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 3.66% probability
- 343 electoral votes with a 3.30% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 3.03% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 2.83% probability
- 347 electoral votes with a 2.74% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.74% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.64% probability
- 344 electoral votes with a 2.47% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 2.46% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 335.8 (17.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 202.2 (17.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 338 (298, 363)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 200 (175, 240)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.