Darryl

Poll: Inslee leads McKenna, 46% to 45%

by Darryl — Friday, 9/28/12, 3:44 pm

Rasmussen Reports released a new poll today that shows former Rep. Jay Inslee (D) barely leading Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) in the Washington state Governor’s race. The poll of 500 people (4.5 M.O.E), taken on Wednesday, has Inslee up 46% to 45%.

Inslee has now led in the last four consecutive polls. The last time McKenna led was in a SurveyUSA poll from mid-July.

In the two previous September polls, Inslee has led by 44% to 41% and 49% to 44%. The current poll might signal that the race is tightened…alternatively, the variability we see is simply sampling error.

To assess the state of the race, I performed a Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using the sample size and proportions found only in today’s Rasmussen poll. Inslee won 558,701 times and McKenna won 428,130 times. This suggests that, if the race was held today, we could expect Inslee to win with a 56.6% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes:

If you believe the race has been stable over the past couple of weeks, we can combine the last two September polls. Now, Inslee takes 761,308 wins to McKenna’s 231,884 wins. The evidence from the past two weeks suggests that Inslee would have a 76.7% probability of coming out ahead in an election held now:

In other polling news, Survey USA released a new poll in Washington’s 6th district. The poll of 628 likely voters taken last Friday through Sunday finds Derek Kilmer (D) leading Bill Driscoll (R) by 52% to 37%.

The seat is currently held by Rep. Norman Dicks (D) who is retiring at the end of this term.

Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/27/12, 12:18 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability	0.0% probability
345 electoral votes	193 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. The results were strong enough and certain enough that we would expect Obama to be the certain winner in an election held now.

Over the past two days, 14 new polls have been released, covering 12 states.

The net result is that, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 345 to Romney’s 193 electoral votes. That is a gain of +4 EVs based on the new polls and the “aging out” of some older polls. We’d have to say the the evidence is quite strong that Obama would achieve victory in a hypothetical election held today.

Here are the new polls, followed by a discussion of some of the changes over the past couple of days:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	Rasmussen	25-Sep	25-Sep	500	4.5	42	52	R+10
CO	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	765	3.4	50.2	45.5	O+4.7
CT	PPP	24-Sep	26-Sep	801	3.5	54	41	O+13
FL	Insider Advantage	24-Sep	24-Sep	540	4.1	49	46	O+3
FL	Quinnipiac	18-Sep	24-Sep	1162	3.0	53	44	O+9
IN	Bellweather Research	19-Sep	20-Sep	800	3.5	40	52	R+12
IA	PPP	24-Sep	26-Sep	754	3.6	51	44	O+7
MD	Gonzales Res	17-Sep	23-Sep	813	3.5	55	36	O+19
MA	Rasmussen	24-Sep	24-Sep	500	4.5	55	40	O+15
MO	Chilenski Strategies	20-Sep	20-Sep	817	3.4	44.3	50.2	R+5.9
OH	Quinnipiac	18-Sep	24-Sep	1162	3.0	53	43	O+10
PA	Quinnipiac	18-Sep	24-Sep	1162	3.0	54	42	O+12
PA	Franklin & Marshall	18-Sep	23-Sep	392	4.9	52	43	O+9
WA	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	625	4.6	56.4	38.6	O+17.8

There are a couple of bright spots for Romney, including a poll from Arizona that has Romney up by a +10%. Romney’s lead in the previous AZ poll was only +3%. The three current polls, taken together bump Romney’s chances of taking the state from 97.5% to 99.3% in an election now.

In Colorado, Obama has a +4.7% lead in the latest poll. Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 96% probability of taking the state (for now) from the poll.

Two more Florida polls go to Obama. He gets a +3% in one and a +9% in the other. Taken together the 15 current polls suggest a 99% chance of Obama taking the state—up from a 93% probability without these two new polls.

Indiana has Romney up by a respectable +12% over Obama. Indiana barely went for Obama in 2008. It seems unlikely the state will repeat that in 2012.

Another Iowa poll goes Obama’s way, this time by +7%. Romney has only led in one of the four current polls taken over the past three weeks. Taken together, Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 98% of taking the state now.

The other bright spot for Romney is Missouri, where Romney leads in a new poll by +5.9%. Together, the two current polls bump Romney’s chances from 68% to 90% of taking the state now.

Another Ohio poll goes to Obama, this one by double digits. This gives us 12 polls in Ohio over the past three weeks and every one of them goes to Obama. As a result, Obama won all 100,000 simulated elections in that state.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both go to Obama. One by +12% and the other by +9%. The eight current polls all go to Obama. The give Obama, in aggregate, a +9% lead over Romney, and suggest Obama would take the state with certainty in an election right now.

A new poll for Washington state has Obama leading Romney by +17.8%. The five current polls all give Obama double digit leads in the state.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

“Epic Romney dignity loss moment”

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/26/12, 3:01 pm

That’s the phrase Josh Marshall used to describe this clip:

I couldn’t help noticing a loss of dignity over at FOX News as well….

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/25/12, 3:30 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Obama’s “post convention bump” seems to be growing. My latest Monte Carlo Analysis of the state head-to-head polls has Obama leading Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. On the other hand, there are cries from the right of ”liberal bias” in the polls. They suggest some kind of vast left-wing conspiracy among nearly all pollsters to include too many Democrats! Sure…and it’s probably orchestrated by the folks who brought us global warming….

Join us as we conspire every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are lots of other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. On Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Poll Analysis: Romney drops below 200 EVs

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/25/12, 1:21 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes	Mean of 197 electoral votes

Beginning this analysis, I’ve narrowed the “current polling window.” The old window included all polls taken within the past month. That criterion resulted in some states with many “current” polls, including some pre-conventions polls.

The new criterion is three weeks, so that almost all the polling occurs after the conventions. You can expect the window to shrink to two weeks sometime in October.

There are two effects from shrinking the window. First, the number of individuals polled goes down for some states. With fewer respondents, we have less evidence and, therefore, uncertainty increases (all else being equal).

The other effect is that there is less smoothing of the results. That is, the results become more indicative of trends.

Taken together, we might expect that Governor Mitt Romney’s chances improve through the increase in uncertainty. We can also expect Romney’s chances to decrease as a result of a recent poll surge for Obama. As it happens, the latter has a much stronger effect. The net effect is that Romney takes a beating….

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes, and the analysis suggested that Obama would almost certainly win an election held now.

Nineteen new polls covering 13 states have appeared in the past two days. Additionally, I’ve found four older polls (one each in AL, CO, OH, and FL) by comparing my database against Samuel Minter’s database.

Here are the new polls:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AR	Talk Business-Hendrix College	17-Sep	17-Sep	2228	2.0	34.5	55.5	R+21.0
CO	PPP	20-Sep	23-Sep	940	3.2	51	45	O+6
FL	PPP	20-Sep	23-Sep	861	3.3	50	46	O+4
FL	WA Post	19-Sep	23-Sep	769	4.5	51	47	O+4
FL	ARG	20-Sep	22-Sep	600	4.0	50	45	O+5
IA	ARG	20-Sep	23-Sep	600	4.0	51	44	O+7
MI	Rasmussen	20-Sep	20-Sep	500	4.5	54	42	O+12
MN	Mason-Dixon	17-Sep	19-Sep	800	3.5	48	40	O+8
MT	Mason-Dixon	17-Sep	19-Sep	625	4.0	42	51	R+9
NV	ARG	20-Sep	23-Sep	600	4.0	51	44	O+7
NV	NV Retailers	19-Sep	20-Sep	500	4.4	46	46	tie
NV	PPP	18-Sep	20-Sep	501	4.4	52	43	O+9
NJ	Monmouth	19-Sep	23-Sep	613	4.0	52	37	O+15
NC	Civitas	18-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	49	45	O+4
OH	Gravis Marketing	21-Sep	22-Sep	594	4.3	45.3	44.3	O+1.0
OH	WA Post	19-Sep	23-Sep	759	4.5	52	44	O+8
PA	Susquehanna	18-Sep	20-Sep	800	3.5	47	45	O+2
PA	Mercyhurst U	12-Sep	20-Sep	522	4.3	48	40	O+8
WI	WeAskAmerica	20-Sep	23-Sep	1238	2.8	52.5	41.0	O+11.5

With this new poll, seven of eight current Colorado polls go to Obama suggesting he would win an election now with about a 95% probability. One can sense from the last three months of polling that Obama is gaining slowly in the state:

Florida has Obama up by +4% in two new polls and +5 in another. Obama has now led in five consecutive polls in the state. That trend we can almost discern in Colorado is even more apparent in Florida:

Romney took the previous Iowa poll, but this new one goes +7% for Obama. The three current polls, take together, suggest Obama has a 95% chance of taking the state right now.

Another solid Michigan poll for Obama leaves him with a certain win in the state (at least, for now).

Three new Nevada polls have Obama up by +7%, +9%, and +0% (i.e. tied). It looks like Obama is regaining the lead he held there six months ago:

The Civitas Institute is a right wing think tank in North Carolina, but they release all their polls. This one has Obama leading by +4%. Obama leads in four of the six current polls and the last three in a row. Still, the weight of evidence goes very slightly to Romney. The trend seems to be in Obama’s favor:

Two new Ohio polls favor Obama, one by a whisper, the other by +8%. Looking at the three month polling trend in the state, the past few weeks have not been kind to Romney:

Obama gets his best and his worst poll in recent months in today’s Pennsylvania collection. Still, it is hard to argue that Obama’s lead isn’t solid:

Finally, a double-digit lead for Obama in Wisconsin caps off a very favorable collection of recent polls in the state for the President. Whatever momentum Romney had in the state in August seems to have almost entirely vanished:

Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 341 (+10) to Romney’s 197 (-10) electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: SC magically turns red!

by Darryl — Sunday, 9/23/12, 4:33 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes	Mean of 207 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

I’ve finally succumbed to the pressure of “doing something about South Carolina.” The last straw was Goldy harassing me over the phone for the umpteenth time this past week. So, I caved and changed the inclusion criteria for states lacking “current polls.” Note that I did not simply drop the vexing S.C. poll, but the new inclusion criteria means that when there are no current polls, multiple old polls will be pooled.

Here is what I have been doing: If a state does not have a “current poll”, I use the single most recent poll available. Right now, the definition of “current poll” is any poll taken over the past month (this “window” will shrink as the election approaches and the pace of polling increases).

That simple rule worked pretty well in 2008. But a single, large poll in South Carolina has plagued these analyses since late last year. The poll is perfectly valid, and might even be correct in giving Obama an 85% probability of winning the state. But it is quite old, and there are other slightly older polls in the state that contradict it. What’s an analyst to do?

I modified a suggestion from Richard Pope and used an inclusion window for older polls, the length of which depends on how old the most recent poll is. Here his the new rule set:

Use only polls taken in the “current polling window” (one month, right now)
If the most recent poll is outside the current polling window and less than 3 months old, use that poll and any others taken over the prior two weeks
if the most recent poll is 3-6 months old, use that polls and any others from the prior month
if the most recent poll is 6-9 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior three months
if the most recent poll is 9-12 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior six months
if the most recent poll is more than a year old, use that poll and any other from the prior year

There are several disadvantages of this new rule set: First, it is complicated. As you know, I strive to minimize arbitrary assumptions in the methods, but now I’ve gone and added a complex, arbitrary rule. Yuck. Another disadvantage is that the new rules will tend to overestimate the winning certainty for states with multiple old polls included in an analysis. On the other hand, a state that hasn’t been polled in a long time probably hasn’t been polled much, so most of the time the single most recent poll will still be used. South Carolina is an exception. There were a bunch of polls taken late last year. I believe this happened because there was “piggyback” polling of the general election by pollsters covering the contentious G.O.P. primary in that state.

Okay…so let’s get to it. Just three days ago the analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 336 to 202 electoral votes. The results suggested that, if an election was held now, Obama would almost certainly win.

In the three days since my previous analysis, there have been some 19 new polls (plus, I am including an old poll, previously overlooked). Here are the polls:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	45	48	R+3
CA	PPIC	09-Sep	16-Sep	995	4.4	53	39	O+14
CO	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	48	45	O+3
CO	Marist	16-Sep	18-Sep	971	3.1	50	45	O+5
FL	Mason-Dixon	17-Sep	19-Sep	800	3.5	48	47	O+1
FL	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	47	48	R+1
GA	InsiderAdvangage	18-Sep	18-Sep	483	4.5	35	56	R+21
IA	Marist	16-Sep	18-Sep	898	3.3	50	42	O+8
NE	Wiese Res	17-Sep	20-Sep	800	3.5	40	51	R+11
NE2	Wiese Res	17-Sep	20-Sep	400	4.9	44	44	tie
NC	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	48	46	O+2
NC	High Point	08-Sep	18-Sep	448	4.7	48	44	O+4
OH	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	48	44	O+4
OH	FOX News	16-Sep	18-Sep	1009	3.0	49	42	O+7
OH	Ohio Poll	13-Sep	18-Sep	861	3.3	51	45	O+6
OH	Gravis Marketing	07-Sep	08-Sep	1548	2.7	47.3	43.2	O+4.1
PA	Rasmussen	19-Sep	19-Sep	500	4.5	51	39	O+12
SD	Neilson Brothers	29-Aug	06-Sep	512	4.3	38.7	53.9	R+15.2
VA	Purple Poll	15-Sep	19-Sep	600	4.0	46	43	O+3
WI	Marist	16-Sep	18-Sep	968	3.2	50	45	O+5

The race seems to tighten in Arizona where Romney just squeaks by with a +3%. Also, this is the first time since early June that Romney has been under 50%.

On the other hand, California tightens as well. Obama gets +14% where he used to pull in the low +20%.

Another pair of Colorado polls go to Obama, who leads in seven of the eight current polls, and seems to have a 91% chance of taking the state (in an election held now).

Florida gives each candidate a poll, by +1%. From twelve polls pooled over the past month, the ~11,000 responses go to Obama 50.8% of the time and to Romney 49.2% of the time. That translates into an 88% probability that Obama would win the state now.

The good news for Romney is that Georgia shows the strongest result for him this year.

Iowa has a strong +8% result for Obama. This poll was taken slightly before the Rasmussen poll I included last analysis that had Romney up by +3%. Even so, with Obama taking two of the three current polls, Obama would seem to have an 89% chance of taking the state right now.

We finally have some polling in Nebraska, where Romney bests Obama by +11%. That the good news for Romney. Recall that Nebraska assigns one elector to the winner of each CD, and the overall state winner gets the other two electors. The bad news for Romney is that Nebraska’s second congressional district polls at a 44% tie. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 and may do it again! (The polling report mentions that Romney has a solid lead in the other two CD’s, but the numbers are not given; instead, an older poll is used for those two CDs. Romney leads in both.)

Two new North Carolina polls go to Obama by small margins. Even so, Romney has led in five of nine current polls (and there was a tie). Overall, the pooled polls favor Romney with an 83% probability of winning an election held now.

With the three new Ohio polls, Obama has a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. Obama won 99% of the simulated elections in the state.

A double-digit lead for Obama in the newest Pennsylvania poll. Obama has won all four of the state’s current polls.

South Dakota gives Romney his first double digit SC lead of the year.

Like Ohio, the new Virginia poll gives Obama a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. But Obama only won 95% of the simulated elections in Virginia.

The new Wisconsin poll means Obama leads in all five current polls, and gives Obama a very high probability of taking the state (in a hypothetical election held now).

After a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes. Obama has a 100.0% probability of winning and Romney has a 0.0% probability of winning. And that is with South Carolina going to Romney 95% of the time.

Using the new “old poll inclusion criteria,” here is the picture of the race over time:

Hmmm…it looks pretty much like the old one that used the simple “single most recent” rule.

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/22/12, 12:24 am

Guide to voter ID laws.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman with Sandy Riccardi: The Wedding of Church and State:

Thom: The Good, the Bad and The Very, Very Ugly.

Ed: Democrats Rebound in Senate Races For 2012

Mark Fiore: Why do they hate us?

President Obama on Letterman.

Young Turks: Rush Limbaugh blames “Feminazis” for his small penis.

Thom and Pap: GOP says “lazy people shouldn’t vote.

Obama v. Romney in Patriot Games:

Ann Telnaes: Testing your free speech limits.

White House: West Wing Week.

WILLARD!!!

Homer votes for Mitt:
Sam Seder: “Poor me…I inherited nothing!”
Ann Telnaes: Romney offers his opinion on the 47%.
Young Turks: GOP Abandoning Mitt Romney.
Mitt taken out of context.
SlateTV: Romney on the ropes
Sam Seder: “Poor me, I’m not Latino.”
Obama ad features Mitt Romney!
SNL on 47%
Jon: The 47% meltdown.
SlateTV: Ann Romney damage control.
Maddow: Paul Ryan has trouble at the AARP.
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: The 47%
Sam Seder: Paul Ryan at the AARP.
Thom: Does Mitt think he’s Jesus?
Liberal Viewer: SNL predicts Romney 47 Percent Scandal
Sam Seder: Mitt’s tax return.
Jon: Romney Magic:
Young Turks: Mitt Romney flip-flop videos
Maddow: Mitt plays tax games with 2011 return.
Sam Seder: Ann Romney to GOP, “STFU!”
Umm…Booooo!
SlateTV: Tim Pawlenty quits Mitt.
Obama (and his anger translator) on the 47%
Thom: Romneyhood!
Tweety: Romney Wobbles
Lawrence O’Donnell: ‘equestrian’ Ann Romney to critics, ‘Stop it. This is hard!’
Young Turks: Ann lashes out
Mitt Romeny: Outside the circle.
Maddow: Big name Republicans thinking past Mitt.
Leaked! Missing footage from Mitt’s explanatory remarks.
Conan’s new Romney attack ad: Barack Obama doesn’t exist.
Paul Ryan repeatedly gets booed at AARP speech

Ann Telnaes: Justice Scalia vents.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Jesus’ wife.

Sarah Silverman does a Voter ID PSA:

Sam Seder: Florida makes it almost impossible to register to vote.

Young Turks: ON that Sarah Silverman video.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: A not-so-good week for Romeny

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/20/12, 7:00 pm

Obama	Romney
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 336 electoral votes	Mean of 202 electoral votes

My previous Monte Carlo analysis, conducted one week ago, showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by (on average) 306 to 232 electoral votes. If the election had been held last week, the analysis suggested that Obama would win with a 97.9% probability.

I guess I waited too long to do a new analysis, because the past week has brought us 47 new polls (plus a poll that breaks out Maine’s two congressional districts):

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
CA	Field Poll	06-Sep	17-Sep	891	3.4	58	34	O+24
CO	Rasmussen	17-Sep	17-Sep	500	4.5	45	47	R+2
CO	Quinnipiac	11-Sep	17-Sep	1497	3.0	48	47	O+1
CO	ARG	10-Sep	12-Sep	600	4.0	49	47	O+2
CO	SurveyUSA	09-Sep	12-Sep	615	4.0	47	46	O+1
CT	U CT	11-Sep	16-Sep	508	4.4	53	32	O+21
FL	WeAskAmerica	18-Sep	18-Sep	1230	2.8	49.1	45.5	O+3.6
FL	FOX News	16-Sep	18-Sep	829	3.0	49	44	O+5
FL	Gravis Marketing	15-Sep	16-Sep	1728	2.5	47.1	47.7	R+0.6
IA	Rasmussen	19-Sep	19-Sep	500	4.5	44	47	R+3
KY	SurveyUSA	11-Sep	13-Sep	606	4.1	39	53	R+14
ME	PPP	17-Sep	18-Sep	804	3.5	55	39	O+16
ME	Maine PRC	15-Sep	17-Sep	856	3.4	53.5	37.3	O+16.2
ME1	Maine PRC	15-Sep	17-Sep	445	—	58.7	33.9	O+24.8
ME2	Maine PRC	15-Sep	17-Sep	410	—	47.8	41.0	O+6.8
MA	WBUR	15-Sep	17-Sep	507	4.4	59	31	O+28
MA	UMass-Lowell	13-Sep	17-Sep	497	5.5	59	36	O+23
MA	Suffolk	13-Sep	16-Sep	600	4.0	63.5	30.5	O+33.0
MA	PPP	13-Sep	16-Sep	876	3.3	57	39	O+18
MA	WNEU	06-Sep	13-Sep	444	4.6	60	38	O+22
MI	Detroit News	15-Sep	17-Sep	600	4.0	52.0	37.8	O+14.2
MI	CNN	14-Sep	18-Sep	754	3.5	52	44	O+8
MI	MRG	10-Sep	15-Sep	600	4.0	47.5	42.3	O+5.2
MI	Baydoun	12-Sep	12-Sep	1156	2.9	45.5	43.7	O+1.8
NV	Rasmussen	18-Sep	18-Sep	500	4.5	47	45	O+2
NV	CNN	14-Sep	18-Sep	741	3.5	49	46	O+3
NH	Rasmussen	18-Sep	18-Sep	500	4.5	45	48	R+3
NH	ARG	15-Sep	17-Sep	463	4.5	48	47	O+1
NJ	Philadelphia Inquirer	09-Sep	12-Sep	600	4.0	51	37	O+14
NJ	Fairleigh Dickinson	06-Sep	12-Sep	706	3.8	52	38	O+14
NC	Rasmussen	13-Sep	13-Sep	500	4.5	45	51	R+6
OH	Rasmussen	12-Sep	12-Sep	500	4.5	47	46	O+1
OH	ARG	10-Sep	12-Sep	600	4.0	48	47	O+1
OR	SurveyUSA	10-Sep	13-Sep	552	4.3	49.5	40.7	O+8.9
PA	WeAskAmerica	18-Sep	18-Sep	1214	2.9	48.1	42.2	O+5.9
PA	Muhlenberg	10-Sep	16-Sep	640	4.0	50	41	O+9
PA	Philadelphia Inquirer	09-Sep	12-Sep	600	4.0	50	39	O+11
VA	FOX News	16-Sep	18-Sep	1006	3.0	50	43	O+7
VA	WeAskAmerica	17-Sep	17-Sep	1238	2.8	48.5	45.7	O+2.8
VA	PPP	13-Sep	16-Sep	1021	3.1	51	46	O+5
VA	Quinnipiac	11-Sep	17-Sep	1474	3.0	50	46	O+4
VA	WA Post	12-Sep	16-Sep	847	4.0	52	44	O+8
VA	Rasmussen	13-Sep	13-Sep	500	4.5	49	48	O+1
WA	Elway	09-Sep	12-Sep	405	5.0	53	36	O+17
WA	SurveyUSA	07-Sep	09-Sep	524	4.4	54.4	37.6	O+16.8
WI	PPP	18-Sep	19-Sep	842	3.4	52	45	O+7
WI	Rasmussen	17-Sep	17-Sep	500	4.5	49	46	O+3
WI	Marquette	13-Sep	16-Sep	601	4.1	54	40	O+14
WI	Quinnipiac	11-Sep	17-Sep	1485	3.0	51	45	O+6

I’ll just comment briefly on some states. Overall, the week’s polling looks very good for Obama, but with a couple of minor exceptions.

Obama takes three of four Colorado polls. This suggests a slight but real lead in the state. The Monte Carlo analysis gave Obama an 84% probability of winning based on the seven current polls.

Obama comes out on top in Florida. He has led in seven of the eleven polls taken over the past month.

Iowa is one of the few bright spots for Romney. He leads Obama by +3% in this week’s poll. But Obama leads in the other current poll, and overall has a very slight edge.

Romney looks destined to loose his boyhood home state of Michigan that gives Obama leads in four polls ranging from +2% to +14%.

Nevada is looking blue, but not by much. Combined with one other poll from the past month, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.

Romney is up by +3% in one poll and down by -1% in another in New Hampshire. Combined with one other current poll Obama gets a 63% probability of winning now.

The other bit of good news for Romney is the most recent North Carolina poll that has Romney leading Obama by a modest +6%. Romney now leads in five of eight current polls and must be considered the leader in the state. A turn-around for Romney can be discerned from the last 6 months of polling:

There are three new Ohio polls, but I accidentally left the new FOX News poll out for this analysis. Even without that +7% for Obama, the two new polls give Obama a slight lead. Romney has only led in one of the seven current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 90% probability. (The FOX News poll will be in the next analysis.)

We finally get a new poll in Oregon, and Obama is still up by something over 8%.

Pennsylvania is still looking blue. The past past month of polling has Obama winning an election now with certainty.

Six new polls in Virginia all go pretty convincingly for Obama. The polling history over six months completes the story…whatever advantage Romney had in the state a few weeks ago was transient:

It doesn’t look like Ryan will be delivering Wisconsin to Romney. The four new polls range from +3% to +14% for Obama. If anything, the selection of Ryan has moved the state further into Obama’s column:

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,975 times and Romney wins 25 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 to Romney’s 202 electoral votes. The analysis suggests that, in an election right now, Obama would have very nearly a 100.0% probability of defeating Romney.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Sep 2011 to 20 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). Obama is performing near his peak for the election season.

Electoral College Map

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

The Romney implosion?

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/19/12, 8:00 pm

Mitt Romney has a blunder problem.

It started years ago, but it really seem to take off with Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom’s, “It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch” comment. Since then, we’ve had “7-11 cookie gate,” Mitt dissing the Olympics host country’s preparedness for the games, mentioning the head of MI-6, and so on.

Until recently, most of the blunders haven’t been substantively rich. (A couple of exceptions: “Corporations are people too, my friend!” and an old Op-Ed with the title, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!”.)

But the two most recent blunders are really different—they are likely to leave a lasting and meaningfully negative impression of Romney in the minds of many Americans.

The botched statement following the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in Libya was factually wrong, repulsively insensitive, and wholly unpresidential. It was a sign of a campaign in desperation, trying anything to the exclusion of taste, good judgement, dignity, and statesmanship.

Mitt’s Blunder of the Week this week reveals Mitt Romney to be a duplicitous asshole. He was caught dissing 47% of Americans—saying things he would never say out in the open—to an elite group of wealthy donors at a $50,000-a-plate fundraiser.

Romney’s statement removed all doubt that he has contempt for less fortunate Americans and views their circumstance not even with indifference, but as some sort of blight on the rest of America.

We now have a couple of polls to assess the negative effect of Romney’s statement on people:

Reuters/Ipsos

Gallup poll

The effect on the race? Although the latest blunders will not be fully captured in aggregate state head-to-head polling for a couple of weeks, we can look at other more immediate indicators.

The average of national polls has moved in Obama’s favor over the past week. The Real Clear Politics average has moved up from a tie two weeks ago to about a +3% advantage for Obama. Likewise, Intrade Prediction Market has seen Obama’s share price surge to its highest median price ever.

Mitt Romney just pulled a reverse Etch-A-Sketch. He has been tacking back to the center from his “severely conservative” (a.k.a. Teabaggy) position he needed to get him through the G.O.P. primary. He has now “reset” himself to a position that is far to the right of most Americans.

He’s no longer viable.

What remains to be seen, is how much down-ballot damage he can cause….

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/18/12, 4:09 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Tonight, bring along you own Secret Tape to share!

(As Mitt requested, the full video is now available, here.)

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are lots of other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. The Longview and South Seattle chapters meet on Wednesday. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 228 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/15/12, 12:06 am

Thom: Why the G.O.P. doesn’t want the Fed to help.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News bias in editing Warren video.

Ed and Pap: Cheney’s incompetence killed 3,000 Americans.

Ellen makes ‘nice’ political ads for Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.

Sam Seder: Rand Paul is SCHOOLED on government jobs under Obama.

Bill Maher: It’s a Significantly Less Wonderful Life.

Let’s talk about values.

Daily Show: How to spin doctor a story.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Buzz60: Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Pat Boone indicate that the Birfer movement is over.

Young Turks: Snoop Dog, “Bush Fucked up for 8 years, vote Obama.

Jonathan Mann: Bearhug the President.

Sam Seder and Glenn Greenwald: Getting away with torture.

Greenman: An interview with Mauri Pelto about retreating glaciers in the Pacific Northwest:

Lawrence O’Donnell: NBC battleground poll shows big leads for President Obama.

Chris Mathews plays FDR clip that perfectly describes Republicans.

Willard!

Ann Telnaes: Romney tries another strategy to get a bounce in the polls
Slate TV: Democrats turn Tables and question Romney’s national security competence.
Top five reasons why Mitt won’t release his tax returns.
Tagg and Craig with Romney Rock!
Buzz60: Swing states are swinging to Obama.
Slate TV: Romney spoiler—Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson on ballot in 47 states.
Thom and Pap: Media ignores Romney lies in favor of politicization
Maddow: War on Women in VA could cost Romney the race.
Young Turks: Conservatives defending Romney’s erroneous statement on Libya.
Zina Saunders: The Romney Identi-Kit.
Young Turks: Romney’s “embassy” comments backfire.
The Cheeters.
The three branches of Mitt Romney’s ‘Neo-CON’ foreign policy
Slate TV: Romney’s attack backfires.
Sharpton: Romney campaign hands out ‘Talking Points’ on Libya
Maddow: Ryan shares billing with “former Terrorist” at fringe conference.
Buzz60: Kanye West new song takes on Mitt Romney’s taxes.
Thom: Romney finds a new way to lie.
Slate TV: Kanye West, “Mitt Romney Don’t Pay No Tax”
Ann Telnaes: Mittstep.

Maddow: Judge says Walker’s union-stripping law is unconstitution.

Young Turks: Bachmann or Palin…who’s CRAZIER???

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

“Obama Style”: a hit video that simply destroys Obama.

Sam Seder: Bush’s 9/11 fail is far worse than you thought!

G.O.P. Voter Suppression Efforts

Pap and Thom: G.O.P. steps up voter suppression efforts.
Sam Seder: G.O.P. makes it difficult to register in Florida.
Thom: Voter ID goes to PA Supreme Court.
Maddow: Exposing the G.O.P. voter suppression effort.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Young Turks: Poll shows some Republicans think Mitt Romney killed bin Laden.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News suggests Obama hates God.

Thom: more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: The post-convention story

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/13/12, 10:13 pm

Obama	Romney
97.9% probability of winning	2.1% probability of winning
Mean of 306 electoral votes	Mean of 232 electoral votes

Now that both conventions have come and gone and the post-convention polls are coming out, it’s a good time to assess the “score” in the 2012 Presidential Election.

My previous Monte Carlo analysis of the race was posted ten days ago (between the two conventions) and showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by a mean of 305 to 233 electoral votes. An election held then would be expected to end in Obama’s favor with a 97.2% probability. Romney had a 2.8% probability of winning.

Thirty two new state head-to-head polls covering 18 states have been released since then:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
AZ	PPP	07-Sep	09-Sep	993	3.1	44	53	R+9
CA	SurveyUSA	09-Sep	11-Sep	524	4.3	57.4	34.9	O+22.5
CO	Keating	10-Sep	11-Sep	503	4.4	49	44	O+5
CO	PPP	31-Aug	02-Sep	1001	3.1	49	46	O+3
FL	Rasmussen	12-Sep	12-Sep	500	4.5	48	46	O+2
FL	Marist	09-Sep	11-Sep	980	3.1	49	44	O+5
FL	Mclaughlin & Assoc	09-Sep	10-Sep	600	4.0	47	50	R+3
FL	SurveyUSA	07-Sep	09-Sep	596	4.1	48.2	44.5	O+3.7
FL	Gravis Marketing	02-Sep	02-Sep	1288	2.7	46.7	48.0	R+1.3
IL	WeAskAmerica	05-Sep	05-Sep	1382	2.8	54	37	O+17
MI	EPIC/MRA	08-Sep	11-Sep	600	4.5	47	37	O+10
MI	PPP	31-Aug	02-Sep	1001	3.4	51	44	O+7
MN	PPP	10-Sep	11-Sep	824	3.4	51	44	O+7
MN	SurveyUSA	06-Sep	09-Sep	551	4.3	49.6	40.4	O+9.3
MO	Rasmussen	11-Sep	11-Sep	500	4.5	45	48	R+3
MT	PPP	10-Sep	11-Sep	656	3.8	45	50	R+5
NH	U NH	04-Sep	10-Sep	592	4.0	45	40	O+5
NJ	Quinnipiac	27-Aug	02-Sep	1471	2.6	51	44	O+7
NM	PPP	07-Sep	09-Sep	1122	2.9	53	42	O+11
NM	Research & Polling	03-Sep	06-Sep	667	3.8	45	40	O+5
NY	Quinnipiac	04-Sep	09-Sep	1486	2.5	62	34	O+28
NC	PPP	07-Sep	09-Sep	1087	3.0	49	48	O+1
NC	SurveyUSA	04-Sep	06-Sep	500	4.5	43	53	R+10
OH	Rasmussen	12-Sep	12-Sep	500	4.5	47	46	O+1
OH	PPP	07-Sep	09-Sep	1072	3.0	50	45	O+5
OH	Gravis Marketing	07-Sep	08-Sep	1548	2.7	47.3	43.2	O+4.1
OH	Gravis Marketing	02-Sep	02-Sep	1381	2.9	43.7	46.8	R+3.1
TX	WPA	09-Sep	11-Sep	1000	3.1	40	55	R+15
VA	Marist	09-Sep	11-Sep	996	3.1	49	44	O+5
VA	Gravis Marketing	08-Sep	09-Sep	2238	2.2	44.0	49.4	R+5.4
WA	PPP	07-Sep	09-Sep	563	—	53	42	O+11
WA	SurveyUSA	07-Sep	09-Sep	524	4.4	54.4	37.6	O+16.8

I’ll only discuss a few states.

In Colorado, Obama takes both new polls, but by modest margins. Colorado seems to have settled for Obama by a small margin:

Five new polls from Florida ought to be enough to tell us who’s ahead. But, no: Obama takes three and Romney takes two. This gives us a total of 12 “current polls” (i.e. those taken in the past month), and in aggregate, Romney comes up with an advantage. In an election now, Romney would take Florida with about an 80% probability.

Obama takes both new Michigan polls by fairly nice margins. There are a total of seven “current polls” for the state—all but two go to Obama—and Obama won 94% of the simulated elections in the state.

Obama seems to have Minnesota pretty well locked up, with the new polls.

The new Missouri poll give Romney a small +3% lead over Obama. We have four other “current” Missouri polls from August. Romney takes all but one. Unless there is some kind of post convention second thoughts coming from the state’s voters, Romney looks likely to win the state.

Romney takes the latest Montana poll by just +5%. The previous poll, from mid-August had Romney up by +17%.

Obama turns in a weak +5% performance In New Hampshire, suggesting he only has an 81% chance of taking the state now.

In New Mexico, Obama is as strong as anywhere. The two new poll have him at +11% and +5%. The older current poll from mid-August is a +14%.

Two new North Carolina polls offer dissimilar pictures. The PPP poll offers Obama a +1% edge over Romney, but the Survey USA poll done for the Civitas Institute (a very right-wing state “think tank”) has Romney up by +10%. The Survey USA poll was taken during the convention and the PPP poll was taken after, so one could argue that there is a post-convention bounce for Obama. But the evidence to support that is vanishingly thin. The polling for the past month gives one poll to Obama, two ties, and four to Romney. Overall, the evidence still supports a good Romney advantage in the state. Here is all the polling in a nicepicture:

Four new Ohio polls split three to one for Obama. The three Obama polls are all post-convention. Romney’s poll is pre-convention. The nine polls taken over the past month go five for Obama, two for Romney and two ties. The evidence gives Obama a slightly stronger advantage in Ohio than Romney has in North Carolina.

The Virginia split, giving Obama a +5% in one and Romney a +5.4% in an even larger poll. The other three current polls go one for Obama, one for Romney and one tie. The state is still really, really, close, although Romney wins about 68% of the simulated elections.

Two Washington polls offer no surprises: Obama dominates with a double-digit lead. End of story.

With all those new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 97,854 wins and Romney 2,146 wins (including the 239 ties). Obama receives (on average) 306 (+1) to Romney’s 232 (-1) electoral votes. These results suggest that, for an election held now, Obama would have a 97.9% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney, a 2.1% (-0.5%) probability of winning.

In other words, little has changed in the past ten days. Obama still maintains a solid lead in the electoral college vote. It is interesting to note that the popular vote (as assessed by national polls) seems to be swinging in Obama’s direction now as well.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 13 Sep 2011 to 13 Sep 2012, and including a one month polling window (FAQ).

Compared to 2008, this is not a very dynamic race.

Electoral College Map

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna 49% to 44%

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/12/12, 2:53 pm

Yesterday a new Survey USA poll (for KING 5) was released in the Washington state gubernatorial race. The poll of 524 likely voters (4.4 MOE), based on a mixed land line and cell phone sample, was taken from the 7th to the 9th of this month.

The poll shows Inslee leading McKenna by 49% to 44%.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections based on this polling finds that, if the election was today, Inslee would have an 80% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of simulated outcomes:

This is pretty good news for Jay Inslee and suggests that his campaign has “turned it around.” McKenna led Inslee for most of the polling before July, but Inslee has now led in three consecutive polls:

The previous poll, taken last month by Survey USA, had Inslee up by +3% points, and a 70% probability of winning then. We’ve had a primary since then. It is always risky to read too much into our top two primary results simply because the voting populations are different. Even so, the gubernatorial primary was practically a head-to-head election between McKenna and Inslee. Inslee received a +4% larger share of the votes than McKenna got.

There is one thing that stands out in the crosstabs. To the question, “Which candidate do you think is more likeable personally?” Inslee bests McKenna by 43% to 30%.

This race has been considered one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country. Maybe not so much anymore.

There are three other head-to-head races in the poll:

Senate race: Cantwell (D) leads Baumgartner (R), 54% to 38%.
Attorney General race: Fergusson (D) leads Dunn (R), 42% to 33%.
Presidential race: Obama (D) leads Romney (R), 54% to 38%.

And, finally, there were a few other ballot measures polled as well:

The referendum upholding the new gay marriage law looks passable at 56% in favor to 38% against.
The initiative for charter schools looks like a go at 52% for and 26% against.
Eyman’s initiative that imposes a (likely) unconstitutional 2/3s majority for tax increases looks like a pass at 58% for to 21% against.
The pot initiative looks like a go at 57% in favor and 34% against.

Drinking Liberally—Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/11/12, 3:50 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.