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Debate!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/2/12, 7:14 pm

Okay, so I show up at the Montlake Alehouse and Goldy is sitting here with his daughter but wearing ear buds.

“I can’t be social right now, I’m live slogging the gubernatorial debate.”

So, I decided to do the same thing. Mostly, I’m leaning over, reading Goldy’s screen and writing it here. At least until Goldy catches on.

7:15: Catch the livestream here.

7:16: I’m jumping in on the middle of things and I hear McKenna trying to claim that failure of immigration reform is not a partisan issue.

RIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGHHH!

7:17: McKenna doesn’t want undocumented persons to have drivers licenses because it serves as an ID, too. Why wouldn’t we want undocumented persons to have ID?? I’ve never understood that. Shouldn’t they be able to show their landlord a picture ID like anyone else?

7:18: To carry Inslee’s point a bit further: Isn’t it better to document otherwise undocumented people so that when anyone interacts with them they have a valid way of knowing they are really interacting with who they think they are interacting with?

7:24: Inslee gets cut off by the moderator and McKenna complains that Inslee didn’t give specific examples. And then McKenna doesn’t give examples. Nice.

7:25: McKenna claims that the Inslee Plan is to raise taxes and give pay raises to his biggest donors. Yeah…that’s grounded in reality.

7:27: Inslee, twice now, suggests that McKenna is the (property) tax raiser he is the candidate who will not raise taxes. True or not, I’m not sure how credible the whole thing comes off as.

7:29: McKenna, “Drive by shooting!” Ooooh…scary. Rob tries a little “scare ’em into voting for you strategy, a la George W. Bush.

7:31: McKenna seems to be spending more time doing “meta-analysis” of what Inslee is saying than he is actually presenting his own positions. “Notice what my opponent is doing…making false accusations and….”

734: Both Goldy and I are streaming the debate on our computers. But the TV in the Alehouse has the baseball game on. Seattle is up on the Angels one to nothing.

7:35: Goldy seems to be taking this VERY seriously. I guess that’s what happens when you are actually paid to blog.

7:39: I briefly lost my feed, and now Goldy’s feed is like a minute ahead of mine! Damnation.

7:40: McKenna is on a first name basis with Mr. Blethen.

7:41: On I-1185, Inslee’s argument is weak…he should just point out that the fucking initiative is unfuckingconstitutional.

7:45: Other than a pro-environmental statement by Inslee, I can’t really find a difference between the candidates on the coal trains. (FWIW, I am pro-Coltrane, but undecided on coal train.)

7:56: It’s over. Inslee wasn’t, what I’d call, daring. He was sticking with his talking points. Since his is clearly up in the polls, that is a reasonable (if unsatisfying) strategy.

McKenna, on the other hand, came off as whining way too much. As I said, he whined about Inslee more than he actually answered questions. To me, it came off as rather pathetic.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/2/12, 4:00 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna 48% to 42%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/2/12, 3:08 pm

A new Survey USA poll in the Washington gubernatorial race has been released by KING 5. The poll of 540 Washington state likely voters (4.3% MOE) found that former Rep. Jay Inlsee leads Washington AG Rob McKenna by 48% to 42%. The polling dates were not given but were probably the last few days of September.

This makes the sixth consecutive poll in which Inslee has come out ahead of McKenna.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using only data from the new poll found Inslee winning 846,579 times and McKenna winning 145,776 times. In other words, if the electiion was held today, we would expect Inslee to win with an 85.3% probability. By standard statistical inference, we would call that “within the margin of error.”

Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

2OCTSUSA

The previous poll in this race was just a few days ago. It showed Inslee ahead in the race 46% to 45% from a poll taken in the 26th of September. Given how close the polls are to each other, we can pool them and jointly analyze the results of both polls. The pooled polls gives a pool of 1,040 “voters” of which 941 voted for one or the other candidate. Inslee leads in the weighted average by 47% to McKenna’s 43.5%.

Now after a million simulated elections Inslee wins 800,838 times, and McKenna wins 193,071 times. Our hypothetical election held now would go to Inslee with an 80.6% probability:

2LateSeptPolls

Here is what the polling has done in this race:
GenericCongress02Sep12-02Oct12Washington

Clearly, the race turned around sometime in July from a small lead for McKenna to a small lead for Inslee.

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How badly is Romney losing?

by Darryl — Monday, 10/1/12, 5:41 pm

Until the end of the conventions, it was not uncommon to see a media article about how close the presidential race was at the time. If anything, the articles were based on national head-to-head polls, and generally showed Obama a point or two ahead of Romney.

Since the conventions, Obama has been gaining ground in the national polls. In fact, the last such poll that wasn’t Rasmussen that showed Romney with a lead was this Gallup Tracking poll from late August.

If you’ve followed my, or almost anyone else’s, analyses of state head-to-head polls it is no secret that Romney is in deep trouble. No matter what the national polls say, it is the electoral college (and, in a tie, the House…and, you know, sometimes the Supreme Court) that elects the President. The simulated electoral college contest has Romney losing consistently and badly this entire election season.

The reason appears to be that Obama is polling stronger in swing states. Credit for this has been attributed to a better-than-average economy in particular swing states, and to the Obama campaign’s early advertising blitz that started defining Romney even before he was the party’s nominee (and with a little help from Romney’s Republican opponents).

The other explanation, which is more of an amusement than a real explanation, is that the polls are all skewed! It’s attributed to the polling this year being “the worst it’s ever been” by political pundit and lower phalange fetishist Dick Morris.

Alternatively, it is a vast left wing media conspiracy!!!1!1! Politico has a nice write-up about Teh Great Polling Conspiracy of 2012. I think Josh Marshall summarized it best:

…having been through several of these cycles, if you’re theory is based on systemic error on the part of basically all pollsters, you’re in for a long election night.

So the following information can be read in two ways. If you think the polls, when taken en masse come out about right, on average, then I will present to you a measure of just how badly Romney is losing. If you are a Poll Truther, the following information provides solid evidence of just how skewed the polls are (if you presume Romney is really leading).

Here’s what I did. I took the results of last night’s analyses (umm…after the correction). And I reran the analysis, adding a bias in Romney’s favor to each poll included in the analysis. The bias (or skew) was a fixed percentage. I began an 0% and stepped up by 1% at a time through 10%. Here is a summary of the results for Obama’s median electoral votes with 95% confidence intervals:

RSkew

The graph is clear…to eke out a win, Romney has to move the electorate across the board by a remarkable 6%. That is, he is 6% behind in the polling now. That is a larger margin than the 3.5% margin in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. That’s because the math of the electoral college places more importance on certain states—and Romney need to do more to win those states.

To win with at least a 95% probability, Romney needs to shift things by 8%. To have the kind of lead that Obama now enjoys—with a solid 100% probability of winning—Romney needs a 10% shift.

Of course, this model is a bit simplified—I skew every poll for all states. It isn’t all states that have to be moved; rather it’s just a handful of “important states” that need moving. I mean, skewing Utah and Mississippi doesn’t really accomplish anything for Romney, and Massachusetts and D.C. aren’t going to be swung over no way, no how.

Here is the electoral map of a Romney victory scenario—presuming he moves voters in his favor by 6%:

ObamaRomneylatestmapskewR0.06

Ohio and Pennsylvania plain gone—the polling now suggests they are out of reach for Romney even in this most extreme scenario where he shifts everything by 6%. Instead, a “Romeny + 6%” victory includes Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Oh…and Nebraska-2, which is tied when we remove the skew.

I’m not suggesting the election is over. But it looks like Romney has an almost insurmountable task ahead of him if he is to leave the rolls of the unemployed.

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Poll Analysis: Obama Romney gains a bit

by Darryl — Sunday, 9/30/12, 7:23 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 344 electoral votes Mean of 194 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Even Newer Update: There is a real North Dakota poll that has just been released. It shows Romney leading in N.D. by 51% to 39%. The poll fails my inclusion criteria because it was conducted on behalf of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party. But there you have it.

Newer Update: Okay…stuff should be fixed now.

Update: OOPS! As was pointed out in the comment thread, I accidentally “invented” a new poll that turned N.D. blue! Alas, it was an Ohio poll that got entered for the wrong state (and then entered again for Ohio). I’ll do a new analysis soon.

The analysis a few days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by, on average, 345 to 193 electoral votes. Since then, we’ve had a plethora of new polls released, and the result is a small gain for Obama Romney.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Moore 25-Sep 26-Sep 500 4.0 42 46 R+4
IA Iowa Poll 23-Sep 26-Sep 650 3.8 49 45 O+4
IA VCR 23-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.4 46 47 R+1
ME Rasmussen 25-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.5 52 40 O+12
MA Boston Globe 21-Sep 27-Sep 502 4.4 57 30 O+27
MI Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 804 3.3 50.0 46.2 O+3.8
MI PPP 17-Sep 19-Sep 2386 2.0 51 42 O+9
NV Marist 23-Sep 25-Sep 984 3.1 49 47 O+2
NH ARG 25-Sep 27-Sep 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
NH Marist 23-Sep 25-Sep 1012 3.1 51 44 O+7
NM PPP 17-Sep 20-Sep 3111 1.8 52 43 O+9
NC Marist 23-Sep 25-Sep 1035 3.1 48 46 O+2
OH Columbus Dispatch 19-Sep 29-Sep 1662 2.2 51 42 O+9
OH PPP 14-Sep 18-Sep 2890 1.8 50 44 O+6
PA Muhlenberg 22-Sep 26-Sep 427 5.0 49 42 O+7
PA PPP 17-Sep 18-Sep 2051 2.2 52 40 O+12
VA ARG 24-Sep 27-Sep 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
VA Suffolk 24-Sep 26-Sep 600 4.0 45.7 44.0 O+1.7
VA PPP 17-Sep 19-Sep 2770 1.9 49 43 O+6
WA Rasmussen 26-Sep 26-Sep 500 4.5 52 41 O+11

Romney continues to out poll Obama in Arizona. The three current polls, taken together, has Romney with a 95% probability of winning the state.

In Iowa, Obama leads by +4% in one poll and trails by -1% in another. Still, there are six Iowa polls taken in the past three weeks—Obama leads in four. Together they put Obama’s probability of taking the state (now) at 98%. Here is the last three months of polling:

ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12Iowa

Maine has Obama leading by +12% in the new poll. There is also a newly released Critical Insights poll that is a couple weeks old and has Obama up by +16. I didn’t see the poll until after the analyses were running; it’ll be included in subsequent analyses.

Obama hangs on to a small +3.8% in one new Michigan poll. Even so, Obama pulls over 50%. Another huge, but somewhat older, Michigan poll has Obama up by +9. With Obama leading in all eight current polls, by double digits in three of them, Obama is looking unbeatable in this state.

In Nevada, Obama’s lead is just +2% in the current poll. Romney hasn’t won any of the six current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 95% probability.

Two new New Hampshire polls have Obama up by +5% and +7%. These are Obama’s strongest showing, now giving him three of the four current polls. Romney’s chances in the state have shrunk to about 10%.

Another North Carolina poll goes Obama’s way, but by only a +2% edge. Obama now has a streak of four consecutive polls in his favor, and he takes four of the five current polls for the state. Here is what the last three months of polling look like graphically:

ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12North Carolina

Two more Ohio polls go to Obama, who leads in all 12 of the polls taken over the past three weeks. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.6%. If the election was held now, we’d expect Obama to win by more than a +6% margin! Here’s the recent trend:
ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12Ohio

Pennsylvania shows, once again, that it isn’t a swing state. Obama’s +7% and +12% in the new polls fall in line with the rest of the ten current polls.

In Virginia, Obama has a puny +2% lead in two polls and a +6% lead in another. These polls make eleven taken in the past three weeks and Obama leads in every one of them. The analysis suggests Obama would win the hypothetical election now with certainty, even if by a smallish margin. The polling trend makes this apparent:

ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12Virginia

Last, but not least, we get a new Rasmussen poll in Washington, where Obama leads Romney by a solid +11%, and takes 52% of the vote. All three current polls are double digit leads for Obama…this new poll is the smallest lead.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections, Obama receives (on average) 347 (+2) 344 (-1) to Romney’s 191 (-2) 194 (+1) electoral votes. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win a hypothetical election held now.

We can view the long term trend of this race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Sep 2011 to 30 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Looking at the media electoral vote line (purple), we see that Obama’s position is stronger than at any time in the past year tied with his strongest position over the past year (median of 347 electoral votes).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 9/28/12, 11:56 pm

Young Turks: on that Allen West ad.

In his own words:

The Professor and Senator Brown:

  • Young Turks: Scott Brown has nothing…so he goes for TEH FORM!
  • Maddow: Sen. Brown holds course with racial ploy.
  • Sam Seder: Is the Scott Brown campaign desperate, or what?
  • Scott Brown staffers do Indian war whoop and tomahawk chops to show their class and style.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pollster-Liberal-Media-Industrial Complex Conspiracy:

  • The effect of Romney’s 47% statement on the polls (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • FAUX News Poll Trutherism—that must include their own polls showing Obama leading (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Tweety: Poll self delusion syndrome.
  • Young Turks: Dick “twinkle toes” Morris’ predictions.

MockTV: Eastwoodin’:

Jon on FAUX News’ hypocritical coverage of school lunch changes.

Latinos for Obama.

Thom: More of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Good ‘ol Tommy Thompson promises to ‘Do away with Medicare and Medicaid’ (via Crooks and Liars).

Willard!

  • Young Turks: The Romney Torture Memo is leaked.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Mitt Romney, “the taker”
  • Gov. Romney’s record on education
  • Sam Seder: Romney begs supporters to chant his name
  • Flashback: Mitt Romney on harvesting companies for profits (via Political Wire).
  • Thom: Mitt Romney explains Bain’s zombie economics in leaked ‘harvest’ video
  • Thom and Pap: on Romney “harvesting” America’s middle class.
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney says uninsured have access to health care.
  • Bill Maher tries the new iPhone Romni app.
  • Sam Seder: Shrub gets higher favorability than Willard!
  • Mitt’s new health care plan
  • Pap: Romney is mentally falling apart.
  • Kimmel: on Mitt Romney’s “Too many Americans” ad.
  • Maddow: Romney campaign puts the ‘mess’ in messaging.
  • Mitt Romney: “Those people”.
  • Maddow: Mitt Romney wonders why airplane windows don’t roll down.
  • Bashir: Whose campaign is it anyway?
  • Mitt Romney was an ineffective Governor.
  • Jon: Mitt Romney gets dumber as election approaches.
  • Mark Fiore: Willard’s World!
  • Ann Telnaes: Ann Romney addresses conservative critics.
  • Romney’s sorry Sunday.
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s self-inflicted wounds.

Thom with even more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: Republicans crippled by fear.

Obama mask dance.

Crazy Akin:

  • SlateTV: Todd Akin ignores dropout deadline.
  • Buzz60: Todd Akin doesn’t think Clarie McCaskill was ladylike in debate.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Sen. Claire McCaskill is not “Ladylike”
  • Akin TV: Tod Akin’s top ten crazy moments…and so much more.

Cenk predicts Obama will win.

Jon on The Labor Dispute (via Crooks and Liars).

Obama with some straight talk:

Mock the Vote:

  • Samuel L. Jackson: Wake the Fuck Up!
  • Young Turks: On Samuel L. Jackson’s video.
  • OneMinuteNews: Samuel L. Jackson’s new story.
  • Register and vote.
  • Thom: The G.O.P. is turning in fraudulent voter registration forms.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Republican voter fraud.
  • Ed and Pap: Voter suppression tactics show GOP’s desperation
  • Celebrities fucken’ ROCK THE VOTE.
  • Young Turks: Republicans and voter fraud.

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Rep. Gohmert’s bizarre Ottoman Empire conspiracy theory.

Sharpton: The G.O.P.’s new idea…Obama lies.

SlateTV: Social media and the Presidential debates.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll: Inslee leads McKenna, 46% to 45%

by Darryl — Friday, 9/28/12, 3:44 pm

Rasmussen Reports released a new poll today that shows former Rep. Jay Inslee (D) barely leading Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) in the Washington state Governor’s race. The poll of 500 people (4.5 M.O.E), taken on Wednesday, has Inslee up 46% to 45%.

Inslee has now led in the last four consecutive polls. The last time McKenna led was in a SurveyUSA poll from mid-July.

In the two previous September polls, Inslee has led by 44% to 41% and 49% to 44%. The current poll might signal that the race is tightened…alternatively, the variability we see is simply sampling error.

To assess the state of the race, I performed a Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using the sample size and proportions found only in today’s Rasmussen poll. Inslee won 558,701 times and McKenna won 428,130 times. This suggests that, if the race was held today, we could expect Inslee to win with a 56.6% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes:

Rasmussen-Sep

If you believe the race has been stable over the past couple of weeks, we can combine the last two September polls. Now, Inslee takes 761,308 wins to McKenna’s 231,884 wins. The evidence from the past two weeks suggests that Inslee would have a 76.7% probability of coming out ahead in an election held now:

Two-Sep

In other polling news, Survey USA released a new poll in Washington’s 6th district. The poll of 628 likely voters taken last Friday through Sunday finds Derek Kilmer (D) leading Bill Driscoll (R) by 52% to 37%.

The seat is currently held by Rep. Norman Dicks (D) who is retiring at the end of this term.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/27/12, 12:18 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability 0.0% probability
345 electoral votes 193 electoral votes


Electoral College Map
Electoral College Map

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. The results were strong enough and certain enough that we would expect Obama to be the certain winner in an election held now.

Over the past two days, 14 new polls have been released, covering 12 states.

The net result is that, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 345 to Romney’s 193 electoral votes. That is a gain of +4 EVs based on the new polls and the “aging out” of some older polls. We’d have to say the the evidence is quite strong that Obama would achieve victory in a hypothetical election held today.

Here are the new polls, followed by a discussion of some of the changes over the past couple of days:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 25-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.5 42 52 R+10
CO Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 765 3.4 50.2 45.5 O+4.7
CT PPP 24-Sep 26-Sep 801 3.5 54 41 O+13
FL Insider Advantage 24-Sep 24-Sep 540 4.1 49 46 O+3
FL Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 53 44 O+9
IN Bellweather Research 19-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 40 52 R+12
IA PPP 24-Sep 26-Sep 754 3.6 51 44 O+7
MD Gonzales Res 17-Sep 23-Sep 813 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA Rasmussen 24-Sep 24-Sep 500 4.5 55 40 O+15
MO Chilenski Strategies 20-Sep 20-Sep 817 3.4 44.3 50.2 R+5.9
OH Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 53 43 O+10
PA Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 54 42 O+12
PA Franklin & Marshall 18-Sep 23-Sep 392 4.9 52 43 O+9
WA Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 625 4.6 56.4 38.6 O+17.8

There are a couple of bright spots for Romney, including a poll from Arizona that has Romney up by a +10%. Romney’s lead in the previous AZ poll was only +3%. The three current polls, taken together bump Romney’s chances of taking the state from 97.5% to 99.3% in an election now.

In Colorado, Obama has a +4.7% lead in the latest poll. Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 96% probability of taking the state (for now) from the poll.

Two more Florida polls go to Obama. He gets a +3% in one and a +9% in the other. Taken together the 15 current polls suggest a 99% chance of Obama taking the state—up from a 93% probability without these two new polls.

Indiana has Romney up by a respectable +12% over Obama. Indiana barely went for Obama in 2008. It seems unlikely the state will repeat that in 2012.

Another Iowa poll goes Obama’s way, this time by +7%. Romney has only led in one of the four current polls taken over the past three weeks. Taken together, Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 98% of taking the state now.

The other bright spot for Romney is Missouri, where Romney leads in a new poll by +5.9%. Together, the two current polls bump Romney’s chances from 68% to 90% of taking the state now.

Another Ohio poll goes to Obama, this one by double digits. This gives us 12 polls in Ohio over the past three weeks and every one of them goes to Obama. As a result, Obama won all 100,000 simulated elections in that state.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both go to Obama. One by +12% and the other by +9%. The eight current polls all go to Obama. The give Obama, in aggregate, a +9% lead over Romney, and suggest Obama would take the state with certainty in an election right now.

A new poll for Washington state has Obama leading Romney by +17.8%. The five current polls all give Obama double digit leads in the state.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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“Epic Romney dignity loss moment”

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/26/12, 3:01 pm

That’s the phrase Josh Marshall used to describe this clip:

I couldn’t help noticing a loss of dignity over at FOX News as well….

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/25/12, 3:30 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Obama’s “post convention bump” seems to be growing. My latest Monte Carlo Analysis of the state head-to-head polls has Obama leading Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. On the other hand, there are cries from the right of ”liberal bias” in the polls. They suggest some kind of vast left-wing conspiracy among nearly all pollsters to include too many Democrats! Sure…and it’s probably orchestrated by the folks who brought us global warming….

Join us as we conspire every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.



Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are lots of other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. On Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Poll Analysis: Romney drops below 200 EVs

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/25/12, 1:21 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes Mean of 197 electoral votes

Beginning this analysis, I’ve narrowed the “current polling window.” The old window included all polls taken within the past month. That criterion resulted in some states with many “current” polls, including some pre-conventions polls.

The new criterion is three weeks, so that almost all the polling occurs after the conventions. You can expect the window to shrink to two weeks sometime in October.

There are two effects from shrinking the window. First, the number of individuals polled goes down for some states. With fewer respondents, we have less evidence and, therefore, uncertainty increases (all else being equal).

The other effect is that there is less smoothing of the results. That is, the results become more indicative of trends.

Taken together, we might expect that Governor Mitt Romney’s chances improve through the increase in uncertainty. We can also expect Romney’s chances to decrease as a result of a recent poll surge for Obama. As it happens, the latter has a much stronger effect. The net effect is that Romney takes a beating….

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes, and the analysis suggested that Obama would almost certainly win an election held now.

Nineteen new polls covering 13 states have appeared in the past two days. Additionally, I’ve found four older polls (one each in AL, CO, OH, and FL) by comparing my database against Samuel Minter’s database.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR Talk Business-Hendrix College 17-Sep 17-Sep 2228 2.0 34.5 55.5 R+21.0
CO PPP 20-Sep 23-Sep 940 3.2 51 45 O+6
FL PPP 20-Sep 23-Sep 861 3.3 50 46 O+4
FL WA Post 19-Sep 23-Sep 769 4.5 51 47 O+4
FL ARG 20-Sep 22-Sep 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
IA ARG 20-Sep 23-Sep 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
MI Rasmussen 20-Sep 20-Sep 500 4.5 54 42 O+12
MN Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 800 3.5 48 40 O+8
MT Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 625 4.0 42 51 R+9
NV ARG 20-Sep 23-Sep 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
NV NV Retailers 19-Sep 20-Sep 500 4.4 46 46 tie
NV PPP 18-Sep 20-Sep 501 4.4 52 43 O+9
NJ Monmouth 19-Sep 23-Sep 613 4.0 52 37 O+15
NC Civitas 18-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 49 45 O+4
OH Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 594 4.3 45.3 44.3 O+1.0
OH WA Post 19-Sep 23-Sep 759 4.5 52 44 O+8
PA Susquehanna 18-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 47 45 O+2
PA Mercyhurst U 12-Sep 20-Sep 522 4.3 48 40 O+8
WI WeAskAmerica 20-Sep 23-Sep 1238 2.8 52.5 41.0 O+11.5

With this new poll, seven of eight current Colorado polls go to Obama suggesting he would win an election now with about a 95% probability. One can sense from the last three months of polling that Obama is gaining slowly in the state:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Colorado

Florida has Obama up by +4% in two new polls and +5 in another. Obama has now led in five consecutive polls in the state. That trend we can almost discern in Colorado is even more apparent in Florida:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Florida

Romney took the previous Iowa poll, but this new one goes +7% for Obama. The three current polls, take together, suggest Obama has a 95% chance of taking the state right now.

Another solid Michigan poll for Obama leaves him with a certain win in the state (at least, for now).

Three new Nevada polls have Obama up by +7%, +9%, and +0% (i.e. tied). It looks like Obama is regaining the lead he held there six months ago:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Nevada

The Civitas Institute is a right wing think tank in North Carolina, but they release all their polls. This one has Obama leading by +4%. Obama leads in four of the six current polls and the last three in a row. Still, the weight of evidence goes very slightly to Romney. The trend seems to be in Obama’s favor:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12North Carolina

Two new Ohio polls favor Obama, one by a whisper, the other by +8%. Looking at the three month polling trend in the state, the past few weeks have not been kind to Romney:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Ohio

Obama gets his best and his worst poll in recent months in today’s Pennsylvania collection. Still, it is hard to argue that Obama’s lead isn’t solid:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Pennsylvania

Finally, a double-digit lead for Obama in Wisconsin caps off a very favorable collection of recent polls in the state for the President. Whatever momentum Romney had in the state in August seems to have almost entirely vanished:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Wisconsin

Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 341 (+10) to Romney’s 197 (-10) electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

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Poll Analysis: SC magically turns red!

by Darryl — Sunday, 9/23/12, 4:33 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes Mean of 207 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I’ve finally succumbed to the pressure of “doing something about South Carolina.” The last straw was Goldy harassing me over the phone for the umpteenth time this past week. So, I caved and changed the inclusion criteria for states lacking “current polls.” Note that I did not simply drop the vexing S.C. poll, but the new inclusion criteria means that when there are no current polls, multiple old polls will be pooled.

Here is what I have been doing: If a state does not have a “current poll”, I use the single most recent poll available. Right now, the definition of “current poll” is any poll taken over the past month (this “window” will shrink as the election approaches and the pace of polling increases).

That simple rule worked pretty well in 2008. But a single, large poll in South Carolina has plagued these analyses since late last year. The poll is perfectly valid, and might even be correct in giving Obama an 85% probability of winning the state. But it is quite old, and there are other slightly older polls in the state that contradict it. What’s an analyst to do?

I modified a suggestion from Richard Pope and used an inclusion window for older polls, the length of which depends on how old the most recent poll is. Here his the new rule set:

  1. Use only polls taken in the “current polling window” (one month, right now)
  2. If the most recent poll is outside the current polling window and less than 3 months old, use that poll and any others taken over the prior two weeks
  3. if the most recent poll is 3-6 months old, use that polls and any others from the prior month
  4. if the most recent poll is 6-9 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior three months
  5. if the most recent poll is 9-12 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior six months
  6. if the most recent poll is more than a year old, use that poll and any other from the prior year

There are several disadvantages of this new rule set: First, it is complicated. As you know, I strive to minimize arbitrary assumptions in the methods, but now I’ve gone and added a complex, arbitrary rule. Yuck. Another disadvantage is that the new rules will tend to overestimate the winning certainty for states with multiple old polls included in an analysis. On the other hand, a state that hasn’t been polled in a long time probably hasn’t been polled much, so most of the time the single most recent poll will still be used. South Carolina is an exception. There were a bunch of polls taken late last year. I believe this happened because there was “piggyback” polling of the general election by pollsters covering the contentious G.O.P. primary in that state.

Okay…so let’s get to it. Just three days ago the analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 336 to 202 electoral votes. The results suggested that, if an election was held now, Obama would almost certainly win.

In the three days since my previous analysis, there have been some 19 new polls (plus, I am including an old poll, previously overlooked). Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
CA PPIC 09-Sep 16-Sep 995 4.4 53 39 O+14
CO Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
CO Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 971 3.1 50 45 O+5
FL Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 800 3.5 48 47 O+1
FL Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
GA InsiderAdvangage 18-Sep 18-Sep 483 4.5 35 56 R+21
IA Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 898 3.3 50 42 O+8
NE Wiese Res 17-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 40 51 R+11
NE2 Wiese Res 17-Sep 20-Sep 400 4.9 44 44 tie
NC Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 46 O+2
NC High Point 08-Sep 18-Sep 448 4.7 48 44 O+4
OH Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 44 O+4
OH FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 1009 3.0 49 42 O+7
OH Ohio Poll 13-Sep 18-Sep 861 3.3 51 45 O+6
OH Gravis Marketing 07-Sep 08-Sep 1548 2.7 47.3 43.2 O+4.1
PA Rasmussen 19-Sep 19-Sep 500 4.5 51 39 O+12
SD Neilson Brothers 29-Aug 06-Sep 512 4.3 38.7 53.9 R+15.2
VA Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 46 43 O+3
WI Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 968 3.2 50 45 O+5

The race seems to tighten in Arizona where Romney just squeaks by with a +3%. Also, this is the first time since early June that Romney has been under 50%.

On the other hand, California tightens as well. Obama gets +14% where he used to pull in the low +20%.

Another pair of Colorado polls go to Obama, who leads in seven of the eight current polls, and seems to have a 91% chance of taking the state (in an election held now).

Florida gives each candidate a poll, by +1%. From twelve polls pooled over the past month, the ~11,000 responses go to Obama 50.8% of the time and to Romney 49.2% of the time. That translates into an 88% probability that Obama would win the state now.

The good news for Romney is that Georgia shows the strongest result for him this year.

Iowa has a strong +8% result for Obama. This poll was taken slightly before the Rasmussen poll I included last analysis that had Romney up by +3%. Even so, with Obama taking two of the three current polls, Obama would seem to have an 89% chance of taking the state right now.

We finally have some polling in Nebraska, where Romney bests Obama by +11%. That the good news for Romney. Recall that Nebraska assigns one elector to the winner of each CD, and the overall state winner gets the other two electors. The bad news for Romney is that Nebraska’s second congressional district polls at a 44% tie. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 and may do it again! (The polling report mentions that Romney has a solid lead in the other two CD’s, but the numbers are not given; instead, an older poll is used for those two CDs. Romney leads in both.)

Two new North Carolina polls go to Obama by small margins. Even so, Romney has led in five of nine current polls (and there was a tie). Overall, the pooled polls favor Romney with an 83% probability of winning an election held now.

With the three new Ohio polls, Obama has a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. Obama won 99% of the simulated elections in the state.

A double-digit lead for Obama in the newest Pennsylvania poll. Obama has won all four of the state’s current polls.

South Dakota gives Romney his first double digit SC lead of the year.

Like Ohio, the new Virginia poll gives Obama a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. But Obama only won 95% of the simulated elections in Virginia.

The new Wisconsin poll means Obama leads in all five current polls, and gives Obama a very high probability of taking the state (in a hypothetical election held now).

After a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes. Obama has a 100.0% probability of winning and Romney has a 0.0% probability of winning. And that is with South Carolina going to Romney 95% of the time.

Using the new “old poll inclusion criteria,” here is the picture of the race over time:
ObamaRomney23Sep11-23Sep12ex

Hmmm…it looks pretty much like the old one that used the simple “single most recent” rule.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/22/12, 12:24 am

Guide to voter ID laws.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman with Sandy Riccardi: The Wedding of Church and State:

Thom: The Good, the Bad and The Very, Very Ugly.

Ed: Democrats Rebound in Senate Races For 2012

Mark Fiore: Why do they hate us?

President Obama on Letterman.

Young Turks: Rush Limbaugh blames “Feminazis” for his small penis.

Thom and Pap: GOP says “lazy people shouldn’t vote.

Obama v. Romney in Patriot Games:

Ann Telnaes: Testing your free speech limits.

White House: West Wing Week.

WILLARD!!!

  • Homer votes for Mitt:
  • Sam Seder: “Poor me…I inherited nothing!”
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney offers his opinion on the 47%.
  • Young Turks: GOP Abandoning Mitt Romney.
  • Mitt taken out of context.
  • SlateTV: Romney on the ropes
  • Sam Seder: “Poor me, I’m not Latino.”
  • Obama ad features Mitt Romney!
  • SNL on 47%
  • Jon: The 47% meltdown.
  • SlateTV: Ann Romney damage control.
  • Maddow: Paul Ryan has trouble at the AARP.
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: The 47%
  • Sam Seder: Paul Ryan at the AARP.
  • Thom: Does Mitt think he’s Jesus?
  • Liberal Viewer: SNL predicts Romney 47 Percent Scandal
  • Sam Seder: Mitt’s tax return.
  • Jon: Romney Magic:
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney flip-flop videos
  • Maddow: Mitt plays tax games with 2011 return.
  • Sam Seder: Ann Romney to GOP, “STFU!”
  • Umm…Booooo!
  • SlateTV: Tim Pawlenty quits Mitt.
  • Obama (and his anger translator) on the 47%
  • Thom: Romneyhood!
  • Tweety: Romney Wobbles
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: ‘equestrian’ Ann Romney to critics, ‘Stop it. This is hard!’
  • Young Turks: Ann lashes out
  • Mitt Romeny: Outside the circle.
  • Maddow: Big name Republicans thinking past Mitt.
  • Leaked! Missing footage from Mitt’s explanatory remarks.
  • Conan’s new Romney attack ad: Barack Obama doesn’t exist.
  • Paul Ryan repeatedly gets booed at AARP speech

Ann Telnaes: Justice Scalia vents.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Jesus’ wife.

Sarah Silverman does a Voter ID PSA:

Sam Seder: Florida makes it almost impossible to register to vote.

Young Turks: ON that Sarah Silverman video.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: A not-so-good week for Romeny

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/20/12, 7:00 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 336 electoral votes Mean of 202 electoral votes

My previous Monte Carlo analysis, conducted one week ago, showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by (on average) 306 to 232 electoral votes. If the election had been held last week, the analysis suggested that Obama would win with a 97.9% probability.

I guess I waited too long to do a new analysis, because the past week has brought us 47 new polls (plus a poll that breaks out Maine’s two congressional districts):

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 06-Sep 17-Sep 891 3.4 58 34 O+24
CO Rasmussen 17-Sep 17-Sep 500 4.5 45 47 R+2
CO Quinnipiac 11-Sep 17-Sep 1497 3.0 48 47 O+1
CO ARG 10-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
CO SurveyUSA 09-Sep 12-Sep 615 4.0 47 46 O+1
CT U CT 11-Sep 16-Sep 508 4.4 53 32 O+21
FL WeAskAmerica 18-Sep 18-Sep 1230 2.8 49.1 45.5 O+3.6
FL FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 829 3.0 49 44 O+5
FL Gravis Marketing 15-Sep 16-Sep 1728 2.5 47.1 47.7 R+0.6
IA Rasmussen 19-Sep 19-Sep 500 4.5 44 47 R+3
KY SurveyUSA 11-Sep 13-Sep 606 4.1 39 53 R+14
ME PPP 17-Sep 18-Sep 804 3.5 55 39 O+16
ME Maine PRC 15-Sep 17-Sep 856 3.4 53.5 37.3 O+16.2
ME1 Maine PRC 15-Sep 17-Sep 445 — 58.7 33.9 O+24.8
ME2 Maine PRC 15-Sep 17-Sep 410 — 47.8 41.0 O+6.8
MA WBUR 15-Sep 17-Sep 507 4.4 59 31 O+28
MA UMass-Lowell 13-Sep 17-Sep 497 5.5 59 36 O+23
MA Suffolk 13-Sep 16-Sep 600 4.0 63.5 30.5 O+33.0
MA PPP 13-Sep 16-Sep 876 3.3 57 39 O+18
MA WNEU 06-Sep 13-Sep 444 4.6 60 38 O+22
MI Detroit News 15-Sep 17-Sep 600 4.0 52.0 37.8 O+14.2
MI CNN 14-Sep 18-Sep 754 3.5 52 44 O+8
MI MRG 10-Sep 15-Sep 600 4.0 47.5 42.3 O+5.2
MI Baydoun 12-Sep 12-Sep 1156 2.9 45.5 43.7 O+1.8
NV Rasmussen 18-Sep 18-Sep 500 4.5 47 45 O+2
NV CNN 14-Sep 18-Sep 741 3.5 49 46 O+3
NH Rasmussen 18-Sep 18-Sep 500 4.5 45 48 R+3
NH ARG 15-Sep 17-Sep 463 4.5 48 47 O+1
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 09-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 51 37 O+14
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson 06-Sep 12-Sep 706 3.8 52 38 O+14
NC Rasmussen 13-Sep 13-Sep 500 4.5 45 51 R+6
OH Rasmussen 12-Sep 12-Sep 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
OH ARG 10-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 48 47 O+1
OR SurveyUSA 10-Sep 13-Sep 552 4.3 49.5 40.7 O+8.9
PA WeAskAmerica 18-Sep 18-Sep 1214 2.9 48.1 42.2 O+5.9
PA Muhlenberg 10-Sep 16-Sep 640 4.0 50 41 O+9
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 09-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 50 39 O+11
VA FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 1006 3.0 50 43 O+7
VA WeAskAmerica 17-Sep 17-Sep 1238 2.8 48.5 45.7 O+2.8
VA PPP 13-Sep 16-Sep 1021 3.1 51 46 O+5
VA Quinnipiac 11-Sep 17-Sep 1474 3.0 50 46 O+4
VA WA Post 12-Sep 16-Sep 847 4.0 52 44 O+8
VA Rasmussen 13-Sep 13-Sep 500 4.5 49 48 O+1
WA Elway 09-Sep 12-Sep 405 5.0 53 36 O+17
WA SurveyUSA 07-Sep 09-Sep 524 4.4 54.4 37.6 O+16.8
WI PPP 18-Sep 19-Sep 842 3.4 52 45 O+7
WI Rasmussen 17-Sep 17-Sep 500 4.5 49 46 O+3
WI Marquette 13-Sep 16-Sep 601 4.1 54 40 O+14
WI Quinnipiac 11-Sep 17-Sep 1485 3.0 51 45 O+6

I’ll just comment briefly on some states. Overall, the week’s polling looks very good for Obama, but with a couple of minor exceptions.

Obama takes three of four Colorado polls. This suggests a slight but real lead in the state. The Monte Carlo analysis gave Obama an 84% probability of winning based on the seven current polls.

Obama comes out on top in Florida. He has led in seven of the eleven polls taken over the past month.

Iowa is one of the few bright spots for Romney. He leads Obama by +3% in this week’s poll. But Obama leads in the other current poll, and overall has a very slight edge.

Romney looks destined to loose his boyhood home state of Michigan that gives Obama leads in four polls ranging from +2% to +14%.

Nevada is looking blue, but not by much. Combined with one other poll from the past month, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.

Romney is up by +3% in one poll and down by -1% in another in New Hampshire. Combined with one other current poll Obama gets a 63% probability of winning now.

The other bit of good news for Romney is the most recent North Carolina poll that has Romney leading Obama by a modest +6%. Romney now leads in five of eight current polls and must be considered the leader in the state. A turn-around for Romney can be discerned from the last 6 months of polling:

ObamaRomney20Aug12-20Sep12North Carolina

There are three new Ohio polls, but I accidentally left the new FOX News poll out for this analysis. Even without that +7% for Obama, the two new polls give Obama a slight lead. Romney has only led in one of the seven current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 90% probability. (The FOX News poll will be in the next analysis.)

We finally get a new poll in Oregon, and Obama is still up by something over 8%.

Pennsylvania is still looking blue. The past past month of polling has Obama winning an election now with certainty.

Six new polls in Virginia all go pretty convincingly for Obama. The polling history over six months completes the story…whatever advantage Romney had in the state a few weeks ago was transient:
ObamaRomney20Aug12-20Sep12Virginia

It doesn’t look like Ryan will be delivering Wisconsin to Romney. The four new polls range from +3% to +14% for Obama. If anything, the selection of Ryan has moved the state further into Obama’s column:

ObamaRomney20Aug12-20Sep12Wisconsin

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,975 times and Romney wins 25 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 to Romney’s 202 electoral votes. The analysis suggests that, in an election right now, Obama would have very nearly a 100.0% probability of defeating Romney.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Sep 2011 to 20 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). Obama is performing near his peak for the election season.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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The Romney implosion?

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/19/12, 8:00 pm

Mitt Romney has a blunder problem.

It started years ago, but it really seem to take off with Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom’s, “It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch” comment. Since then, we’ve had “7-11 cookie gate,” Mitt dissing the Olympics host country’s preparedness for the games, mentioning the head of MI-6, and so on.

Until recently, most of the blunders haven’t been substantively rich. (A couple of exceptions: “Corporations are people too, my friend!” and an old Op-Ed with the title, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!”.)

But the two most recent blunders are really different—they are likely to leave a lasting and meaningfully negative impression of Romney in the minds of many Americans.

The botched statement following the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in Libya was factually wrong, repulsively insensitive, and wholly unpresidential. It was a sign of a campaign in desperation, trying anything to the exclusion of taste, good judgement, dignity, and statesmanship.

Mitt’s Blunder of the Week this week reveals Mitt Romney to be a duplicitous asshole. He was caught dissing 47% of Americans—saying things he would never say out in the open—to an elite group of wealthy donors at a $50,000-a-plate fundraiser.

Romney’s statement removed all doubt that he has contempt for less fortunate Americans and views their circumstance not even with indifference, but as some sort of blight on the rest of America.

We now have a couple of polls to assess the negative effect of Romney’s statement on people:

    Reuters/Ipsos: The statement makes 43% of voters viewed Mitt Romney less favorably.
    Reuters/Ipsos: 59% felt Romney was unfairly dismissing a big chunk of Americans as victims.
    Gallup poll: The statement makes 36% less likely to vote for him.
    Gallup poll: The statement makes 20% more likely to vote for him.

The effect on the race? Although the latest blunders will not be fully captured in aggregate state head-to-head polling for a couple of weeks, we can look at other more immediate indicators.

The average of national polls has moved in Obama’s favor over the past week. The Real Clear Politics average has moved up from a tie two weeks ago to about a +3% advantage for Obama. Likewise, Intrade Prediction Market has seen Obama’s share price surge to its highest median price ever.

Mitt Romney just pulled a reverse Etch-A-Sketch. He has been tacking back to the center from his “severely conservative” (a.k.a. Teabaggy) position he needed to get him through the G.O.P. primary. He has now “reset” himself to a position that is far to the right of most Americans.

He’s no longer viable.

What remains to be seen, is how much down-ballot damage he can cause….

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