The Romney implosion?

Mitt Romney has a blunder problem.

It started years ago, but it really seem to take off with Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom’s, “It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch” comment. Since then, we’ve had “7-11 cookie gate,” Mitt dissing the Olympics host country’s preparedness for the games, mentioning the head of MI-6, and so on.

Until recently, most of the blunders haven’t been substantively rich. (A couple of exceptions: “Corporations are people too, my friend!” and an old Op-Ed with the title, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!”.)

But the two most recent blunders are really different—they are likely to leave a lasting and meaningfully negative impression of Romney in the minds of many Americans.

The botched statement following the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in Libya was factually wrong, repulsively insensitive, and wholly unpresidential. It was a sign of a campaign in desperation, trying anything to the exclusion of taste, good judgement, dignity, and statesmanship.

Mitt’s Blunder of the Week this week reveals Mitt Romney to be a duplicitous asshole. He was caught dissing 47% of Americans—saying things he would never say out in the open—to an elite group of wealthy donors at a $50,000-a-plate fundraiser.

Romney’s statement removed all doubt that he has contempt for less fortunate Americans and views their circumstance not even with indifference, but as some sort of blight on the rest of America.

We now have a couple of polls to assess the negative effect of Romney’s statement on people:

    Reuters/Ipsos: The statement makes 43% of voters viewed Mitt Romney less favorably.
    Reuters/Ipsos: 59% felt Romney was unfairly dismissing a big chunk of Americans as victims.
    Gallup poll: The statement makes 36% less likely to vote for him.
    Gallup poll: The statement makes 20% more likely to vote for him.

The effect on the race? Although the latest blunders will not be fully captured in aggregate state head-to-head polling for a couple of weeks, we can look at other more immediate indicators.

The average of national polls has moved in Obama’s favor over the past week. The Real Clear Politics average has moved up from a tie two weeks ago to about a +3% advantage for Obama. Likewise, Intrade Prediction Market has seen Obama’s share price surge to its highest median price ever.

Mitt Romney just pulled a reverse Etch-A-Sketch. He has been tacking back to the center from his “severely conservative” (a.k.a. Teabaggy) position he needed to get him through the G.O.P. primary. He has now “reset” himself to a position that is far to the right of most Americans.

He’s no longer viable.

What remains to be seen, is how much down-ballot damage he can cause….

Comments

  1. 3

    Serial Conservative spews:

    A substantial majority of Americans have already made up their minds about their vote choice, so it is likely that many of those who claim to be “more likely” or “less likely” to vote for Romney are, in essence, indicating that the comments reinforced their pre-existing vote choice. This may be particularly true of Democrats, who have the strongest immediate reactions, with more than two-thirds saying the comments make them less likely to vote for Romney.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/157.....ative.aspx

    No change in the Gallup daily tracking poll, one day after the shit supposedly hit the fan. Maybe tomorrow.

  2. 4

    spews:

    Bob @ 3,

    “No change in the Gallup daily tracking poll, one day after the shit supposedly hit the fan. Maybe tomorrow.”

    That’s the beauty of picking and choosing your polls…given enough different polls you can manufacture any answer you want (to believe).

    When you combine the results of multiple polls…not so much. Under that, Romney has lost substantial ground in the popular vote contest.

    Of course, in the electoral college contest he isn’t even close….

  3. 5

    Serial Conservative spews:

    Darryl @ 4,

    I read tonite Romney referred to illegal aliens as illegal aliens. New manufactured controversy tomorrow.

    It’s still about the economy. I’m wondering how many creative ways there are between now and October to remove enough people from the denominator to end up with an unemployment rate at 7.9% announced on the first Friday of November.

  4. 6

    czechsaaz spews:

    There are three new Fox News polls that include at least one full day of polling post “I don’t care about 47%” All are Likely Voter polls

    Ohio: Obama 49-42
    Virginia: Obama 50-43
    Florida: Obama 49-44

    They tell similar stories but I’ll focus on Florida. Asked of Romney voters, are you voting because you strongly favor him: 53% Same question to Obama supporters: 74%. Obama leads on preferablity for Protecting Medicare, Handling Foreign Policy, Protecting from Terrorism and Improving the Economy. Favorability/Un, Obama 55%-41%, Romney 49%-45%.

    And just to head off the “oversampling” complainers, Florida actually tracks registration by party and it’s 41%D to 36%R This poll found 42%D to 37%R so pretty much in the sweet spot.

    It’s becoming a legitimate question. Can Obama get 350 electoral votes?

  5. 7

    czechsaaz spews:

    One other little thing I just noticed. If you put 100% of the undecideds into the Romney column, he still loses Ohio and Virginia and pulls into a tie in Florida.

  6. 8

    Tea for everyone spews:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 6 million Americans — significantly more than first estimated— will face a tax penalty under President Barack Obama’s health overhaul for not getting insurance, congressional analysts said Wednesday. Most would be in the middle class.

    http://www.google.com/hostedne.....fda77612f7

    Obama and I quote “If you make under $250,000 you will not see any tax increases at all!

    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

    Q How do you tell when a democrat is lying
    A When their mouth is moving

  7. 9

    Tea for everyone spews:

    And the budget office analysis found that nearly 80 percent of those who’ll face the penalty would be making up to or less than five times the federal poverty level. Currently that would work out to $55,850 or less for an individual and $115,250 or less for a family of four.

    Average penalty: about $1,200 in 2016.

    “The bad news and broken promises from Obamacare just keep piling up,” said Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who wants to repeal the law.

  8. 10

    Ekim spews:

    “I don’t care about 47%”

    Does he really care about anybody other than his natural constituency, the 1%ers?

  9. 11

    Ekim spews:

    8. Tea for everyone spews:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 6 million Americans — significantly more than first estimated — will face a tax penalty under President Barack Obama’s health overhaul for not getting insurance

    Most likely a bunch of freeloaders like you. Last in line to pay for good quality service. First in line when you need it.

    You know, we wouldn’t even be having this Obamacare debate now except that your Rethug “free market” solution has royally fucked over this country. What value does the health insurance industry add to the quality of our health care?

  10. 12

    Ekim spews:

    If I have to choose between Obamacare or the Mitt’s Vulturecare, I will choose Obamacare every time.

    Under Vulturecare you younger folks have an exciting future ahead of you–finding some insurance company to take your Vulturecare voucher and then having to hope they don’t drop you when you actually need that coverage. Good luck with that one…

  11. 13

    Puddybud spews:

    As Puddy has said over and over… the slobbering libtard media isn’t reporting all the news. They focus on Romney, declare gaffes when Romney tells the truth about entitlements and you 47%ers would never vote for him anyway.

    There are proud members of the 47% brigade here on HA. Puddy doesn’t need to identify them because everyone knows who the freeloaders are.

    There would be an Obummer implosion if the the slobbering media told the truth about Obummer and the Libyan and Egyptian issue. We now see the truth (Puddy knew a week ago) about this sadministration lies about some worthless movie trailer which overseas newspapers fully discredited last week. Yet as Puddy scours the standard players… NY Slime, Boston Globe, LA Slimes, Wa Post, and the standard networks… nary a peep about the truth, or if they actually tell the truth they put Romney in it as the fault of the problem.

    So Puddy agrees Romney has to get around the media, because they are in the tank for Obummer!

  12. 14

    Puddybud spews:

    The slobbering libtard media is hiding the fact Eric Steadman Holder collaborated with Media Morons over the Fast and Furious episode. Now we see Steadman lied and a person died. Last night on Chris Tingling Leg Matthews show nothing was mentioned. Neither on Ed I Call Them Sluts Schultz. Neither on Rachel Madcow’s show. Poor Al I’ll Never Apologize For Tawana Brawley looks pathetic last night. Nothing useful learned there either. Yet on O’Reilly and Hannity new information was learned not on PMSNBC or the major networks.

    We know why. All are in the tank to demean, denounce, denigrate and destroy Romney while defend, deflect and describe Obummer.

    I hope Congress removes Media Morons tax exempt status over this… NOW THAT WOULD BE:

    Toooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Damnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuunnnnnnnnnnnnny

  13. 15

    Puddybud spews:

    Every time there is a discussion over ObummerCare there is something in each article attacking Romney on his Massachusetts health care plan. Watch to see if any truth is postulated from the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media. Now we see the CEI estimating ObummerCare regulations will cost 1.8 Trillion, close to the 1.7 Trillion the SBA came out with earlier… the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media will defend, deflect and describe ObummerCare in the most positive terms while they will demean, denounce, denigrate and destroy Romney over his calls to dismantle ObummerCare

    No wonder some polls have Romney behind.

  14. 16

    Puddybud spews:

    Andrea Mitchell two nights ago admitted PMSNBC has a double standard… Love Obummer, dismiss Romney. Never play anything bad about Obummer… seek out and destroy Romney. The slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media fishrags follow suit. Romney tells the truth against Obummer and his followers, the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media round the chuck wagons in a full defensive posture. Romney tells the truth about Egypt and Libya and we now find out it’s the truth a week later. The slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media Doesn’t admit Romney was right. They can’t. Their sworn job is to demean, denounce, denigrate and destroy Romney this election cycle.

    Romney isn’t imploding… the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media claims it and HA leadership class eats it up.

  15. 17

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Watch to see if any truth is postulated from the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media.

    You’re sounding more like a Dr. Bronner’s bottle all the time.

    Now we see the CEI estimating…

    Lost credibility (had any?) right there – “study” from ridiculous libertarian outfit, printed in ridiculous right-wing Examiner. Might as well just post the Hannity link, puddy.

    No wonder some polls have Romney behind.

    Right. Willard would be at 60% if it weren’t for that meddling Rachel Maddow!

  16. 18

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Reading (if one can call identifying words strung together in no discernible order ‘reading’) #15, we’re going to have a long 7 weeks around here!

    What’s he going to do when Allen West goes down in flames?

  17. 19

    Puddybud spews:

    The WA Post actually prints Obummer’s sadministration admits the deadly Benghazi attack is linked to Al Qaeda. Puddy told y’all that last week. Guess where the WaPo buries it? Page A8. And you all wonder why Puddy claims it’s the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media?

    No wonder the impression is Romney is imploding.

  18. 20

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Puddybud, I’m still waiting to hear from you on whether your Jesus would condone the torture of captured terrorists?

  19. 21

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    No wonder the impression is Romney is imploding.

    Sadly, no.

    That impression of Romney imploding comes from the giant sucking sound that an implosion generates.

    It’s called observation, data. Learn about it.

  20. 22

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    The other day, this was posted from one of the usual right-wing trolls…

    43. kim jong chillin spews:

    @41. Probably a bunch of OWSer lazy fucks.

    Enough is enough, time to start cutting people off the dole…sink or swim, bitches. [Ed. emphasis mine]

    Sink or swim, cut off the dole.

    Do you agree, puddybud?

    Who would your Jesus throw into the deep end, to see if they would ‘sink or swim’?

  21. 23

    spews:

    Bob @ 5,

    “I read tonite Romney referred to illegal aliens as illegal aliens. New manufactured controversy tomorrow.”

    As I mentioned in the post, many of Romney’s “gaffes” are substance-less fluff. But—unfortunately for Romney—not all of ‘em.

    “It’s still about the economy.”

    Think that, if it makes you feel better. The problem is, when polled about it, many voters recognize that Obama inherited a mess, and place more of the blame for the sluggish recovery on the previous administration.

    “I’m wondering how many creative ways there are between now and October to remove enough people from the denominator to end up with an unemployment rate at 7.9% announced on the first Friday of November.”

    The story the polls tell us is that the 8%+ unemployment numbers aren’t enough to sink Obama this election. That’s the problem with solely relying on a magic number from the past without considering present context.

    Not only that, it looks to me like the G.O.P.’s “Obstruct Obama at every turn, even if it hurts America” policy is backfiring in House and Senate races….

  22. 24

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @22
    I think you get at something very important there, Darryl.

    I think Romney thought this election was his for the taking, simply given the weakness in the economic numbers, especially viewed in absolute terms.

    All he had to do was show up, and the gig would be his.

    There’s a real arrogance, a sense, if you will, of entitlement to that attitude, and it comports with everything I know about Romney.

    The downfall, as you say, was due to the focus on absolutes, a rather static way of thinking, rather than appreciating context and relative analysis and rates of change and the overall trajectory.

  23. 25

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Lazy assholes shouldn’t get to vote either…

    I don’t believe any legitimate voter that actually wants to exercise that right and takes on the according responsiblity that goes with that right to secure their photo ID will be disenfranchised. As Mitt Romney said, 47% of the people that are living off the public dole, living off their neighbors’ hard work, and we have a lot of people out there that are too lazy to get up and get out there and get the ID they need. If individuals are too lazy, the state can’t fix that. [Ed. emphasis mine]

    Welfare queens, baby!!! Cadillacs and T-bone steaks! Makers and takers, oh yeah!

    I’m just glad that Cap’n Crunch and our other trolls have the moral fortitude to resist this easy welfare life and who instead struggle at a job, accepting the harder road simply because they’re better people.

  24. 27

    Rael spews:

    … then again maybe Romney will wipe the floor with Obama in the debates …

    ROFL!!!!

    … and maybe a dozen winged monkeys will come flying out of my butt too …

  25. 30

    czechsaaz spews:

    Gee Piddles. Your still stuck with “the media isn’t covering.”

    You might want to watch this. It’s why people who don’t watch editorialized 2 minute attention span news might be smarter than you. Nine minutes, commercial free explaining the whole thing 24 hours after.

    And then you still think Issa has something on Holder:

    Republicans praised the findings of Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who faulted the agency for misguided strategies, errors in judgment and management failures in an operation that he said disregarded public safety and allowed hundreds of guns to reach Mexican drug gangs. (edited for length/fair use) “We found no evidence” that staff at the department or at ATF informed the attorney general about Operation Fast and Furious before 2011, the report says. The operation begin in Phoenix in late 2009.

    Former Acting Deputy Attorney General Gary Grindler received a briefing on Operation Fast and Furious in 2010.

    “We found, however, that the briefing failed to alert Grindler to problems in the investigation,” the report says.

    “We found no evidence to suggest” that Assistant Attorney General Lanny Breuer, head of the Justice Department’s criminal division, was aware that the ATF and the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Arizona had adopted a strategy of not interdicting firearms, the report adds.

    Still, the inspector general’s report provided some validation for the Republican-led investigation.”

    Right. It’s the media’s fault that Willard is running the Jeff Spicolli campaign. “Dude, I can fix it. My Dad’s got a RADICAL set of tools.” It’s the media’s fault Willard embarrasses himself on foreign policy consistently.

    If only the media would pump up the empty suit with no specific plan…

  26. 31

    czechsaaz spews:

    @14

    So the Washington Examiner has a study by the CEI. That’s a good scoop. The CEI is TOTALLY credible. You know Piddles, you like to toss out the name Soros a lot. You might want to take the time to familiarize yourself with Anschultz, owner of the Washington Examiner.

    Baaaa-Baaaa-Baaaa. My corporatist masters tell me what to think and I just adore them for it.

  27. 32

    Don Joe spews:

    Another plank in, “It’s the policies, stupid“:

    The Republican Party has some potentially winning themes for America’s presidential and congressional elections in November…

    But Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and other leading members of his party have played these cards completely wrong in this election cycle. Romney is apparently taken with the idea that many Americans, the so-called 47%, do not pay federal income tax.[...]

    But this misses two obvious points. First, most of the 47% pay a great deal of tax on their earnings, property, and goods purchased. They also work hard to make a living in a country where median household income has declined to a level last seen in the mid-1990’s.

    Second, the really big subsidies in modern America flow to a part of its financial elite – the privileged few who are in charge of the biggest firms on Wall Street.

    Even now, if Romney pivoted to John Huntsman’s message about breaking up big banks, which got big through a variety of government subsidies, and letting the market decide which ones win and which ones lose, he’d be kicking Obama’s ass right now.

    In stead, Republicans are intent on telling the 47% of Americans who a) pay no Federal Income tax and b) played no significant role in the collapse of our nation’s financial system, they they are what’s wrong with this country.

    It’s not the candidate, and it’s not the campaign. It’s the policy ideas, stupid.

  28. 35

    Puddybud spews:

    We who think right learn today two white house staffers were involved in the Cartegena prostitution scandal. Will the slobbering libtard head up Obummer’s ASS media report it? You know if it was Bush they’d be playing this for weeks during the election cycle.

    And they’ll work this in as a Romney problem!

  29. 36

    Puddybud spews:

    When you deal with low information DUMMOCRPTS Romney is displayed in the media as having an implosion.

    This economy sucks. A company I just finished a large configuration will be laying off people by the end of this year. American Airlines announced a layoff. 382,000 new claims this week.

    DUMMOCRAPTS are low information voters.

  30. 37

    Puddybud spews:

    A new AP poll, well known for it’s DUMMOCRAPT over sampling polling methods only has Obummer up by 1% point, Hmmm… Maybe that implosion isn’t imploding so much right now!

  31. 38

    czechsaaz spews:

    @33

    “A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States, completed Monday night,”

    Hey piddly, know what happened Monday afternoon at 4pm Eastern? If you guessed Mother Jones released the tape your right! Reflected in the poll you want to cling to? Nope.

    The AP poll you’re touting? Mmmmm, national not swing states (meaningless) and completed Monday.

    You probably have 48 hours to celebrate the last bit of not disastrous polling for Willard. I suggest you go shopping for liquor. Gonna need it.

  32. 39

    Don Joe spews:

    @ 37

    You probably have 48 hours to celebrate the last bit of not disastrous polling for Willard.

    Take it a step further. He’s arguing that the Romney campaign is not imploding. He’s not arguing that the Romney campaign is doing well. Even by the data Puddy rather selectively cites, Romney still trails, and that’s in an economic milieu where the race should be a cakewalk for the Republican nominee.

    Will the Puddy’s of the world stop and reflect on just why this race is so close? Of course not. They’re way too stupid for that.

  33. 41

    Cornflake, the conservative cereal spews:

    28. mem1 spews:
    @18,
    Hey Spuddy,
    Still haven’t gotten that job sucking the shit out of Rmoney’s ass?

    I bet GOATBOY has already been there and done that.

  34. 42

    Cornflake, the conservative cereal spews:

    39. mem1 spews:
    @32,
    Going blind puddles?
    I called you a shit sucking, teabagging rethuglican.

    You forgot about the goats. He REALLY LOVES his goats. Getting between GOATBOY and his goats is as risking as getting between a mama bear and her cubs.

  35. 43

    Meme1 spews:

    @41,

    Oh, I’m sure he has, I just don’t think Rmoney was paying for it at the time.

    He probably does it for free.

  36. 44

    Cornflake, the conservative cereal spews:

    Q. What do flies and ButtHead the GOATBOY have in common?
    A. The both eat shit and like it.

  37. 45

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @5 “It’s still about the economy.”

    Sure is. No one believes anymore that tax breaks for millionaires create jobs.