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Political Turkey

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle

Please join us this evening as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of politics, conversation, and good cheer over a drink.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio (under an awning). The cold weather may entice some folks to hang out in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Monday Open Thread

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I saw Macbeth at Seattle Shakespeare over the weekend. Fantastic performances and staging. It was the final weekend, so this isn’t a review or anything like that.

It is me saying that I was very impressed with their mask policy. Obviously, get vaccinated or boosted is the thing that helps the most in saving lives from COVID-19. But with people in close quarters for a couple hours, masks are also important. And it was mandatory, and at the introduction, they said they would kick people out or stop the show if people weren’t masked.

They aren’t killing the little old ladies who make up their core audience. Don’t be absurd.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Roy Wood, Jr.: Black superhero history

The New York Times: Empty classrooms, abandoned kids—Inside The Great Teacher Resignation

Desi Lydic: Twitter’s Head of Communications speaks out

Electile (Dys)Function:

Stephen: Family meeting with Michelle Obama

Amber Ruffin: How Native American kids were forced to become whiter

Mehdi Hasan: The most defining moments of Nancy Pelosi’s legacy

The Dotard Трамп and Other Dishonorable Liars and Grifters:

WaPo: How Nancy Pelosi became the most powerful woman in Congress

Stephen chats with Michelle Obama (full interview)

Desi Lydic: Black Friday—Why?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday!

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New Coleman Dock, baby! I have walked or biked by it quite regularly, and it doesn’t look ready from the outside. But it’s very exciting. Maybe I can pop into it on my way home from work and take a look. It’s very exciting when new infrastructure opens up.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Wednesday Open Thread

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I am not sure how much credit to give a proposal in a politician’s press release. So maybe I am missing something. But I like the idea of continuing to bypass the design review process for affordable housing in Seattle. I don’t know how much we need the process in general, but certainly for low income housing in the middle of a homelessness crisis, extending it seems like a no brainer.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle, Tuesday, 7pm at the Duchess Tavern

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DLBottle DLBottle Please join us on Tuesday as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of post-election celebration. Please note the meeting time and venue change.

This week we will meet at the Duchess Tavern (2827 NE 55th St, Seattle WA 98105) starting at 7pm out on the patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Monday Open Thread

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– Congratulations to Congresswoman elect Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez! I am sure that there will be a lot of times when I’m frustrated with her, but man what a gap between her and the other possibility.

– King County’s budget passed committee last week. There are so many exceptions, I don’t know how much the body cameras for deputies will make a difference, but it’s probably better than not.

– Go wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Jimmy Kimmel: Dana Carvey’s Dotard Трамп, Barack Obama & Joe Biden Impressions

Drunk History: Unbelievable moments in US political history

Electoral Dysfunction:

Roy Wood, Jr.: CP Time—The history of Black governors

Трамп and His Imbeciles:

Ronny Chieng teaches you about Asian veterans

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Wednesday Open Thread

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I am writing this on Tuesday night. It’s still too early to tell who is going to control Congress. But! It’s safe to say that Patty Murray is going to win reelection pretty easily.

And far be it from me to give advice to Republicans, who I hope lose every election, but I don’t understand why they keep running on hating Seattle in statewide races. Like what was the last time it was successful, Slade Gorton in the 1990’s? They won Secretary of State and AG, when they aren’t tempted to go full fuck Seattle, more recently.

But part of the reason that we’ve only had Democrats as Governor and Senator for decades is that Seattle people aren’t going to vote for fuck Seattle and it isn’t salient to the rest of the state. Like find a message that doesn’t demonize a large group of people who you want to represent.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Election Eve 2022

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
13.3% probability
86.7% probability
Mean of 48 seats
Mean of 52 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.

My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.

Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.

What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.

There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.

Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.

Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.

Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 13.3%, Republicans control the Senate 86.7%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 44
Strong Democrat 2 46
Leans Democrat 2 2 48
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 48
Weak Republican 1 1 1 52
Leans Republican 1 1 51
Strong Republican 9 50
Safe Republican 41

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 16 11772 51.1 48.9 94.5 5.5
AR 1& 451 32.2 67.8 0.0 100.0
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 4 3028 54.8 45.2 100.0 0.0
CT 1 773 66.2 33.8 100.0 0.0
FL 7 4408 46.2 53.8 0.0 100.0
GA 15 12247 49.9 50.1 46.3 53.7
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 441 59.2 40.8 99.5 0.5
IN 1 615 43.7 56.3 1.4 98.6
IA 1 753 43.6 56.4 0.8 99.2
KS 1 868 37.6 62.4 0.0 100.0
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.1 99.9
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1& 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 5 4295 44.0 56.0 0.0 100.0
NV 9 6281 48.2 51.8 2.5 97.5
NH 9 10733 50.7 49.3 84.4 15.6
NY 5 4024 60.1 39.9 100.0 0.0
NC 7 6807 47.4 52.6 0.1 99.9
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 8 7425 46.9 53.1 0.0 100.0
OK 3 2024 41.6 58.4 0.0 100.0
OK 3 1984 38.8 61.2 0.0 100.0
OR 2 2171 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
PA 14 11479 49.8 50.2 37.0 63.0
SC 1& 546 40.7 59.3 0.1 99.9
SD 1& 1275 31.8 68.2 0.0 100.0
UT 2 1242 43.2 56.8 0.1 99.9
VT 1& 987 66.4 33.6 100.0 0.0
WA 3 2183 51.1 48.9 76.1 23.9
WI 8 6410 48.5 51.5 3.8 96.2

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Monday Open Thread

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Vote you jerks. Get your ballot postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow (Tuesday). Please vote for the Democrat in all the races against Republicans. And there are good resources statewide if you’re still unsure. You can also probably still volunteer with your favorite candidate. Tell your friends to vote. It’s crunch time. Let’s do this.

And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Bail reform

Lewis Black Rantcast: New York vs Seattle

SNL Weekend Update: Elon Musk buys Twitter & companies cut ties with Kanye West

Electile Dysfunction:

LegalEagle: The greatest brief ever filed

Amber Ruffin: Homophobia is not a problem of the past

Roy Zimmerman and Friends: ♫ Can’t Unring That Bell ♬

The Dotard and All His Accomplices and Enablers:

WaPo: When an abortion was $250 in a New York City apartment

Tooning out the News: Big News addresses the Pelosi attack

Amber Ruffin: WAIT! Is Barack Obama a sex symbol?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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