My last post was a bit negative. There will be a results thread at some point, but for now, share your stories of who you voted for and why. Do you like absentee voting or miss going to a polling place?
Poll Analysis: Penultimate stability
| Obama | Romney |
| 98.8% probability of winning | 1.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 309 electoral votes | Mean of 229 electoral votes |


Another day, 26 new polls, and we are still at the same place. President Barack Obama is still leading Governor Mitt Romney by 309 to 229 electoral votes (on average).
I’ll have one more update tomorrow, early afternoon—before any election polls close. Here is today’s batch:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 1096 | 3.0 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| CO | Keating | 02-Nov | 04-Nov | 603 | 4.0 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| CO | Lake | 31-Oct | 04-Nov | 400 | 5.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
| FL | Gravis | 04-Nov | 05-Nov | 1060 | 3.1 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| FL | Insider Advantage | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 437 | 4.6 | 47 | 52 | R+5 |
| FL | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 955 | 3.2 | 50 | 49 | O+1 |
| FL | Mellman | 30-Oct | 02-Nov | 800 | 3.4 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| IA | ARG | 02-Nov | 04-Nov | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 49 | R+1 |
| MI | Mitchell | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 1305 | 2.7 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| MO | SurveyUSA | 28-Oct | 03-Nov | 589 | 4.1 | 43.1 | 49.9 | R+6.8 |
| NV | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 3.6 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| NH | Rasmussen | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 50 | 48 | O+2 |
| NH | New England Collage | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 687 | 3.7 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| NH | ARG | 02-Nov | 04-Nov | 600 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| NH | U NH | 01-Nov | 04-Nov | 789 | 3.5 | 51 | 48 | O+3 |
| NC | Gravis | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 1130 | 2.9 | 46 | 50 | R+4 |
| NC | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 926 | 3.2 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| OH | Gravis Marketing | 04-Nov | 05-Nov | 1316 | 2.7 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| OH | SurveyUSA | 01-Nov | 04-Nov | 803 | 3.5 | 48.8 | 44.3 | O+4.5 |
| OH | Ohio Poll | 31-Oct | 04-Nov | 889 | 3.3 | 50.0 | 48.5 | O+1.5 |
| PA | Gravis Marketing | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 1060 | 3.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| SD | Neilson Brothers | 31-Oct | 04-Nov | 633 | 4.0 | 41 | 53 | R+12 |
| VA | Rasmussen | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 50 | R+2 |
| VA | Marist | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 1165 | 2.9 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| VA | Mellman | 30-Oct | 02-Nov | 800 | 3.4 | 48 | 45 | O+3 |
Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.
We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:
Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.
In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.
Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.
A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.
Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.
Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.
The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ’em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.
Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
This Fucking Election is Almost Over
Good Christ, I’m so glad this election is done tomorrow. I was injured and so I didn’t canvas anywhere, or do much volunteering. I usually feel like I have some control of some down-ballot races by knocking on doors or making phone calls. This time, I’ve given some money, but haven’t been able to feel like I got someone out to the polls or convinced someone by calling them. So it’s just my vote.
Don’t get me wrong, I love writing here. And I think it makes a difference. And I’m glad that y’all have stopped by. But it’s not the same as interacting with people at their door.
Even without that, this election has felt like more of a slog than they often do. Maybe since it started like 10 seconds after Obama took the oath of office. Maybe it’s a fairly negative election. I don’t even have a TV box, so I’ve missed most of the commercials, but the PAC’s and super PAC’s feel like they’re overwhelming the candidates in ways that are even worse than before.
Anyway, all this is to say, I’ll be glad when tomorrow is done. I’ll be gladder if Obama and Inslee win. So please, please, please get those ballots postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow.
Open Thread 11/5
– You’re going to vote for the liar. Because he shares your moral values.
– I’m both horrified at the GOP disenfranchisement machine and awed that people are pressing ahead in spite of it.
– It’s not all irrational programing at Fox News?
– This is as good an explanation for the trolls as anything.
Poll Analysis: Interesting polls, no movement
| Obama | Romney |
| 98.3% probability of winning | 1.7% probability of winning |
| Mean of 309 electoral votes | Mean of 229 electoral votes |


My analysis yesterday showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by a mean of 309 to 229 electoral votes. Obama would be expected to win an election now with an 98.9% probability and Romney, 1.1%.
Today I found a pack of 29 polls that cover 17 states. The polls have something to celebrate for the Romney camp—ties in a New Hampshire and a Pennsylvania poll, a small lead in a Michigan poll, and a lead in the only Florida poll. But the Obama camp has some celebrating of their own, including leads in three Ohio polls, leads in three of four Pennsylvania polls and, perhaps most importantly, solidifying his formerly tenuous lead in Virginia with two more leads in VA polls.
Altogether…it’s a wash. The expected electoral votes are split identically. Romney’s probability of winning an election goes up ever so slightly, however.
Here are the polls:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| AZ | PPP | 02-Nov | 03-Nov | 1080 | 3.0 | 46 | 53 | R+7 |
| FL | Pulse | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 48 | 50 | R+2 |
| IN | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 600 | 4.0 | 43 | 52 | R+9 |
| IA | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 1122 | 2.9 | 50 | 48 | O+2 |
| ME | Critical Insights | 30-Oct | 31-Oct | 613 | 4.0 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
| MA | UMass | 31-Oct | 03-Nov | 800 | 4.1 | 57 | 37 | O+20 |
| MA | WNEU | 26-Oct | 01-Nov | 525 | 4.2 | 58 | 38 | O+20 |
| MI | PPP | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 700 | 3.7 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| MI | Baydoun | 02-Nov | 02-Nov | 1913 | 2.2 | 46.2 | 46.9 | R+0.7 |
| MN | SurveyUSA | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 556 | 4.2 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
| MO | PPP | 02-Nov | 03-Nov | 835 | 3.4 | 45 | 53 | R+8 |
| MT | PPP | 02-Nov | 03-Nov | 836 | 3.4 | 45 | 52 | R+7 |
| MT | Mason-Dixon | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 43 | 53 | R+10 |
| MT | Rasmussen | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 43 | 53 | R+10 |
| NH | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 1550 | 2.5 | 50 | 48 | O+2 |
| NH | U NH | 31-Oct | 02-Nov | 502 | 4.4 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| OH | Ohio Poll | 25-Oct | 30-Oct | 1182 | 2.9 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
| OH | Pulse | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
| OH | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 1000 | 3.1 | 52 | 47 | O+5 |
| PA | PPP | 02-Nov | 03-Nov | 790 | 3.5 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| PA | Muhlenberg | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 430 | 5.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| PA | Susquehanna | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
| PA | Pulse | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| UT | Mason-Dixon | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 25 | 70 | R+45 |
| VA | Pulse | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| VA | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 975 | 3.1 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| WA | PPP | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 932 | 3.2 | 53 | 46 | O+7 |
| WI | PPP | 02-Nov | 03-Nov | 1256 | 2.8 | 51 | 48 | O+3 |
| WI | Pulse | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 1000 | 3.0 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
The only Florida poll puts Romney over Obama by +2%. Romney now has four of the five current polls, and an estimated 74% probability of taking the state in an election held tonight.
Iowa has Obama up by +2% in a new poll. This state is looking like a lock for Obama. He has led in seven of the eight current polls. Even if the margins are small, the simulation gives Obama a 97% probability that his overall +3% lead is real.
In Michigan, Obama leads Romney by +6% in one new poll, and Romney leads Obama by +0.7% in the other. And that second poll is a monster, with over 1,900 respondents. Putting the five current polls together, Obama is down to a +2.8% lead and a 90% probability of taking the state now.
A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading by a comfortable +11%, a margin that when combined with two more modest margins in the current polls suggests an almost certain win. I might not have even mentioned this poll, except that, in the previous presidential poll analysis thread, Serial Conservative pointed out a Minnesota poll that had Romney up by +1% in the state! He did add the point: “Not sure whether this meets the qualifications for inclusion in Darryl’s analyses.”
So, I dutifully investigated (were it a weekday, I would have called the pollster). This poll was done for American Future Fund, a 501(c)(4) organization that has a long track record of producing and airing factually challenged anti-Obama ads. That isn’t a good start. But what I found is a record of candidate polls being released. That makes it pretty certain that the MN poll was released selectively.
Why does it matter? Consider this. Suppose some 501(c)(4) hit machine hires Mr. P to do 20 polls over several months in a race between Ms. D and Mr. R. And Mr. P is a scrupulous pollster. As it happens, the first 19 polls showed Ms. D leading by margins of +6 to +11. But, just because of the sampling variability in polling that 20th poll comes in with Ms. D up by only +1%. Mr. P’s client releases the poll to show how competitive the race is—good strategy, bad statistics. Of course, the race isn’t close. The client got one of those one-in-twenty results for a race that is really about Ms. D+8%. Mr. P hasn’t done anything wrong. But the released poll suffers from selectivity bias because the other 19 polls were not also released. Releasing only the Ms. D+1% poll is completely misleading as to the actual state of the race.
So…where were we?
Oh…yes, New Hampshire gives us two new polls. One has Obama up by +2% and the other is a tie. Obama takes the other three current polls by mostly narrow margins. Obama would win the state with an 88% probability in a race this evening.
Another day, another sprinkling of Ohio polls. All three go to Obama by smallish margins. Obama leads in seven of nine current polls, and there is one tie. The evidence is overwhelming, suggesting Obama would win an election now by a 98% probability.
Suddenly there is interest in Pennsylvania! Of the four new polls, Obama leads in three, and one is a tie. The four current polls (all added today) combine to give Obama an 89% probability of winning the election now.
The big surprise is the new set of polls from Virginia. One gives Obama a +1% lead, and the other a +4% edge. This solidifies the slight lead in the state that Obama took yesterday. The three current polls now have Obama’s chances at a 77% probability of taking the state.
Obama just squeaks by in two new Wisconsin polls (+1% and +3%). The collection of six current polls (one tie and five Obama leads) have Obama with a 97% probability of winning the state now.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,318 times and Romney wins 1,682 times (including the 144 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.3% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.7% (+0.6%) probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2011 to 04 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Stepping Forward

There’s a lot of disillusionment with the state of our political system right now. We have two major parties that are largely beholden to powerful economic interests who’ve figured out how to funnel taxpayer money into their own pockets. We have a massive – and largely privatized – military that kills and maims innocent civilians across the globe with almost no oversight. We have the most people living behind bars (by far) of any country in the world, continuing to grow with an immigration crackdown that has continued largely under the radar. And our electorate is largely tuned out, not even able to muster the ability to demand that the two main candidates for president present a clear vision of how to deal with climate change, something that looms as potentially the most dangerous thing we’ll deal with in our lifetimes.
Yet this year, in this state, we got the chance to take two small steps forward. Voter initiatives are often cynical attempts to con voters into voting against their own economic interests. I-502 was a reminder of why they serve a real purpose. It was a genuine effort – decades in the making – to demand that government stop its foolish and wasteful crusade to keep adults from enjoying a recreational drug that’s been used by humans for thousands of years. This Tuesday, we’ll make it official. Marijuana prohibition’s days are numbered. Change is coming.
And Washington is set to become the first state (hopefully with several others on Tuesday) to end marriage discrimination at the ballot box. If only people who were personally affected by either of these initiatives cared, they wouldn’t have a chance. But more and more people are beginning to recognize the value of standing up for the rights of others, even when they involve rights you don’t ever plan to exercise yourself.
Thanks to all the folks in both the I-502 campaign, the R-74 campaign, and everyone who’s worked over the years to bring reform to where we are today. These seem like small steps compared to some of the challenges we face, but these are big victories that can give us the confidence to know that positive change can happen. And as people who’ve fought for years for gay rights and drug law reform can tell you, it’s a long battle with many setbacks. Tuesday can’t come soon enough.
Poll Analysis: Three polls in the Washington gubernatorial race
In the past several days, three new polls have been released that weigh in on the Washington state gubernatorial race. In all three polls, former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) leads state AG Rob McKenna (R) by narrow margins—always within the margin of error. This post will look at the three polls separately, and then combine them into a joint analysis.
Late last week, the second wave of the Washington Poll was released. The poll surveyed 632 likely voters (MOE 3.9%) using live interviews taken from the 18th to the 31st of October. It found Inslee leading McKenna by 48.7% to 45.6%.
A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 708,884 times to McKenna’s 281,485 wins. In other words, this poll suggests that Inslee would win the election now with a 71.5% probability, and McKenna would win with a 28.4% probability.
Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the analysis:
The other poll released late last week was from Survey USA for KING 5. The poll of 555 likely voters (MOE 4.2%) was taken from the 28th to the 31st of October. It found Inslee leading McKenna by 47% to 46%.
A Monte Carlo analysis of just this poll finds Inslee winning 561,944 times and McKenna winning 425,662 times. The results would suggest that Inslee would win the election now with a 56.9% probability to McKenna’s 43.1% probability:
The final poll, released just yesterday, is from PPP. The poll surveyed 932 likely voters (3.2% MOE) from November 1 to 3, and found Inslee leading McKenna by 50% to 48%.
In the Monte Carlo analysis of the PPP poll results, Inslee wins 663,870 times and McKenna wins 327,401 times. This poll, alone, puts Inslee’s chances of winning an election now at 67% to McKenna’s 33% probability:
We can jointly analyze the three polls together. Our “meta-poll” has a total of 2,119 “voters” of which 2,025 offered a preference for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee took 1035 (48.8%) of these votes, and McKenna took 991 (46.8%) votes. There were 93 (4.4%) undecideds.
The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee wins 751,986 times, and McKenna wins 243,119 times, suggesting that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 75.6% probability and McKenna would win with a 24.4% probability:
Finally, lets look at the polling trajectory over the past 6 months:
Inslee took over the lead in late summer, and appears to have held a modest lead through September. Since then, the race has tightened considerably, and we see Inslee with the slightest advantage over the last two months.
This one will be close, but the three most recent polls combine to give Inslee a slight edge.
Bird’s Eye View Contest
Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the park in Arvada, CO where the body of Jessica Ridgeway was found.
This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!
HA Mormon Study
[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying his Mormon faith.]
Brigham Young, Journal of Discourses 2:182-84
When the Constitution of the United States hangs, as it were, upon a single thread, they will have to call for the “Mormon” Elders to save it from utter destruction; and they will step forth and do it.
Discuss.
Poll Analysis: Two days of good polls for Obama
| Obama | Romney |
| 98.9% probability of winning | 1.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 309 electoral votes | Mean of 229 electoral votes |


My previous analysis was completed early Friday morning, before most polls were released. The analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes (on average). In an election held yesterday, Obama would be expected to win with a 94.4% probability, and Romney with a 5.6% probability.
There have been 35 new polls released since then that cover 23 “states”. I put states in quotes, because we get polls for ME-1 and ME-2 this batch. Lots of swing states are included in this batch, and they largely come down on the side of Obama:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CA | Field Poll | 25-Oct | 30-Oct | 751 | 3.6 | 54 | 39 | O+15 |
| CO | PPP | 31-Oct | 01-Nov | 825 | — | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| CO | SurveyUSA | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 695 | 3.8 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| CT | PPP | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 1220 | 2.8 | 55 | 42 | O+13 |
| FL | Mason-Dixon | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 800 | 3.5 | 45 | 51 | R+6 |
| FL | Marist | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 1545 | 2.5 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
| GA | 20/20 Insight | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 1316 | 2.7 | 45 | 52 | R+7 |
| HI | Civil Beat | 24-Oct | 26-Oct | 1218 | 2.8 | 61 | 34 | O+27 |
| IN | Howey DePauw | 28-Oct | 30-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 41 | 51 | R+10 |
| IA | Gravis Marketing | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 594 | 4.0 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
| IA | Selzer | 30-Oct | 02-Nov | 800 | 3.5 | 47 | 42 | O+5 |
| IA | Mellman Group | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 600 | 4.0 | 46 | 44 | O+2 |
| ME | PPP | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 1633 | 2.4 | 55 | 42 | O+13 |
| ME1 | PPP | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 817 | — | 59 | 39 | O+20 |
| ME2 | Gravis | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 509 | 4.3 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
| ME2 | PPP | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 816 | — | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| MA | PPP | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 1089 | 3.0 | 57 | 42 | O+15 |
| MA | Kimball | 31-Oct | 01-Nov | 761 | 3.5 | 54.0 | 41.4 | O+12.6 |
| MI | PPP | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 700 | 3.7 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| MI | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 52 | 47 | O+5 |
| MI | Grove Insight | 31-Oct | 01-Nov | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 41 | O+7 |
| MN | PPP | 31-Oct | 01-Nov | 772 | — | 53 | 44 | O+9 |
| NE | WeAskAmerica | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 1178 | 3.0 | 41 | 54 | R+13 |
| NV | Mellman Group | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 50 | 44 | O+6 |
| NH | Gravis Marketing | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 497 | 4.3 | 50 | 49 | O+1 |
| NH | New England Collage | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 1017 | 3.7 | 49.5 | 44.4 | O+5.1 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| OH | Marist | 31-Oct | 01-Nov | 971 | 3.1 | 51 | 45 | O+6 |
| OH | CNN/OR | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 796 | 3.5 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
| OH | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 1649 | 3.0 | 50.2 | 45.8 | O+4.4 |
| OR | PPP | 31-Oct | 01-Nov | 921 | — | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| SD | Neilson Brothers | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 634 | 3.9 | 42 | 50 | R+8 |
| UT | Dan Jones | 26-Oct | 01-Nov | 870 | 3.4 | 26 | 69 | R+43 |
| VA | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 1069 | 3.0 | 48.5 | 47.6 | O+0.9 |
| WI | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 1210 | 3.0 | 51.5 | 44.8 | O+6.7 |
Both new Colorado polls offer Obama slim margins over Romney. With five current polls splitting 4 to 1 for Obama, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.
We get one Florida poll for each candidate, but Romney gets the net benefit. The current polls split 3 to 2 in favor of Romney, giving the G.O.P. nominee about 2/3 probability of taking the state.
All three new Iowa polls go to Obama, who also takes 6 of 7 current polls.
Maine-2 was considered a swing “state”, but both new polls go to Obama. Together the suggest Obama has a 87% chance of taking ME-2’s single electoral vote.
Three new Michigan polls give modest leads to Obama. The President takes all five current polls, suggesting a very high probability of taking the state.
The new Minnesota poll is pretty solid for Obama, who ends up with a high probability of winning the state.
The new Nevada poll puts Obama over Romney by a modest +6%. As it happens, that’s the only poll that falls in the current poll window. It suggests Obama would win the state now with a 86% probability.
Obama leads in two new New Hampshire polls. One gives Obama a slim +1% and the other gives him a +5.1%. All four current polls go to Obama and he looks to have an 88% probability of taking the state now.
Four of five new Ohio polls go to Obama, the fifth is a tie. We now have eleven polls taken in the past week, and Obama leads in nine; Romney leads in one. If the election was held now, Obama would take the state with a 97% probabililty.
In Virginia, Obama squeaks out a +0.9% lead. It is the only current poll, so Obama comes away with a 58% probability of winning, based on this evidence.
Obama gets a modest +6.7% in the new Wisconsin poll. Now he leads in four of five current polls, with the fifth poll being a tie. In the analysis, Obama won just under 100% of the simulated elections.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,915 times and Romney wins 1,085 times (including the 66 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 (+7) to Romney’s 229 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+4.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-4.5%) probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03 Nov 2011 to 03 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza
Washington Senators for Washington:
Young Turks: Republican’s War on Math.
Maddow: End of campaign bluster.
White House: West Wing Week.
Willard (and Friends):
- Liberal Viewer: Should Mr. Burns endorse Mitt Romney?
- SlateTV: Chrysler refutes Ohio Romney ad
- Young Paul Ryan.
- Ann Telnaes: Romney’s change.
- Mitt Romney is autistic:
SlateTV: Why don’t we get rid of the electoral college.
Schoolhouse Rock: Election Rock, with conspiracy theories.
Young Turks: debate audience laugh at Michele Bachmann.
Cock-block the Vote.
Roy Zimmerman: I’m in:
Politics of Disaster:
- Ann Telnaes: Romney’s all wet..
- Sam Seder: Occupy Sandy….
- Young Turks: Mitt v. Climate change.
- Sam Seder: Mitt Romney implies hurricane Sandy recovery just like cleaning up HS football celebration
- SlateTV: Chris Christie can’t stop praising Obama.
- Mark Fiore: The Emergency Private Sector Alert System.
- Sam Seder: FEMA + Romney Administration = Disaster
- Stephen: Hurricane Sandy nightmare
Political Kombat ’12: Obama vs Romney.
Maddow: States with weird election laws.
Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Jon: Dystopian hellscape that Is Ohio.
Liberal Viewer: Romney stung by repeating a FAUX News lie in debate.
Letterman: VP Joe does the top-10 on voting early.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Glad We Can Help
Mike O’Brien has the story of Seattle City Light helping out in the wake of Sandy.
Seattle City Light, our local publicly-owned utility, is sending 18 linemen, their trucks and all their gear out to Long Island, NY to help restore power in the aftermath of Sandy. I am incredibly proud of our utility for finding a way to help out.
Many utilities across the country are lending a hand. I am especially proud of City Light for not only sending staff, but also finding a way to send the critical equipment they need to be most effective in the relief effort. City Light has been working hard all week to find a way to help and it paid off. This weekend, City Light crews are catching a ride with the U.S. Air Force to the storm ravaged area where millions are without power and heat.
It’s not very efficient to send the trucks and workers to help, so I’m sure there are some run-everything-like-a-business-I-don’t-want-my-utility-bill-going-to-that people out there. But I’m glad they’re helping. And I’m proud that my utility bill is going to help pay for that.
Poll Analysis: Obama gains
| Obama | Romney |
| 94.4% probability of winning | 5.6% probability of winning |
| Mean of 302 electoral votes | Mean of 236 electoral votes |


Obama has made a big jump in his chances to be reelected with this new analysis.
A couple of things. This analysis only includes polls through early Friday morning. Also, I am using a 7-day “current poll” window at this point in the race. Third, after missing most of the week, I cannot go through the state-by-state polls today. And last, there are some older polls I’ve added but not included in this list. The list may also exclude one or two new polls. You can always see what polls are used for each state from the big state table below.
Here are (most of) the new polls I’ve included:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1246 | 2.9 | 50.1 | 46.7 | O+3.4 |
| CO | Rasmussen | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
| CO | CNN/OR | 26-Oct | 31-Oct | 764 | 3.5 | 50 | 48 | O+2 |
| FL | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1146 | 3.0 | 48.9 | 49.8 | R+0.9 |
| FL | Gravis Marketing | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 549 | 4.2 | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
| FL | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 687 | 3.7 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| FL | CNN/OR | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 770 | 3.5 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| FL | SurveyUSA | 25-Oct | 27-Oct | 595 | 4.1 | 47.1 | 47.1 | tie |
| GA | SurveyUSA | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 574 | 4.2 | 43.7 | 52.0 | R+8.3 |
| IL | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1198 | 3.0 | 57 | 41 | O+16 |
| IN | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 753 | — | 42.2 | 55.4 | R+13.1 |
| IA | Rasmussen | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 49 | R+1 |
| IA | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1174 | 3.0 | 48.8 | 47.3 | O+1.5 |
| IA | PPP | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 676 | 3.8 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
| IA | Marist | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 1142 | 3.0 | 50 | 44 | O+6 |
| MA | Suffolk | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 63.0 | 31.2 | O+31.8 |
| MA | Boston Globe | 24-Oct | 28-Oct | 583 | 4.1 | 56 | 39 | O+17 |
| MA | UNH | 24-Oct | 28-Oct | 583 | 4.1 | 52 | 38 | O+14 |
| MI | Glengarif Group | 27-Oct | 29-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 47.5 | 45.0 | O+2.5 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 26-Oct | 29-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
| MN | SurveyUSA | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 574 | 4.2 | 50 | 43 | O+7 |
| MO | WeAskAmerica | 30-Oct | 30-Oct | 1217 | 2.9 | 42.2 | 53.8 | R+11.6 |
| MT | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 799 | — | 42.7 | 50.4 | R+7.8 |
| NE | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 761 | — | 38.8 | 58.1 | R+19.3 |
| NE2 | Wiese Res | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 679 | 3.8 | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| NV | SurveyUSA | 23-Oct | 29-Oct | 1212 | 2.9 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| NH | Marist | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 1013 | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
| NC | PPP | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 730 | 3.6 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| NC | SurveyUSA | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 628 | 3.8 | 45 | 50 | R+5 |
| ND | Mason-Dixon | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 40 | 54 | R+14 |
| ND | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 752 | — | 37.8 | 54.7 | R+16.9 |
| OH | PPP | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
| OH | Ohio Poll | 25-Oct | 30-Oct | 1182 | 2.9 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
| OH | SurveyUSA | 26-Oct | 29-Oct | 603 | 4.1 | 47.5 | 44.9 | O+2.6 |
| OH | Pharos | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 765 | — | 49.0 | 46.3 | O+2.7 |
| OH | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 718 | 3.7 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| OR | Elway | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 405 | 5.0 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
| OR | Hoffman Res | 24-Oct | 25-Oct | 615 | — | 47 | 42 | O+5 |
| PA | Keystone Poll | 23-Oct | 28-Oct | 547 | 4.2 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
| RI | WPRI | 24-Oct | 27-Oct | 601 | 4.0 | 54 | 33 | O+21 |
| TX | U TX | 15-Oct | 21-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 39 | 55 | R+16 |
| VA | Gravis Marketing | 26-Oct | 26-Oct | 625 | 3.9 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| VA | Quinnipiac | 23-Oct | 28-Oct | 1074 | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
| VA | Roanoke College | 23-Oct | 26-Oct | 638 | 4.0 | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| WA | SurveyUSA | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 555 | 4.2 | 54 | 40 | O+14 |
| WA | Washington Poll | 18-Oct | 31-Oct | 632 | 3.9 | 56.4 | 35.9 | O+20.5 |
| WI | PPP | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 825 | 3.4 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 29-Oct | 29-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| WI | Marist | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 1065 | 3.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| WI | St. Nobert | 25-Oct | 29-Oct | 1065 | 5.0 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
| WI | Marquette | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 1243 | 2.8 | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 94,381 times and Romney wins 5,619 times (including the 384 ties). Obama received (on average) 302 to Romney’s 236 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 94.4% probability of winning and Romney would have a 5.6% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2011 to 02 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Open Thread 11/2
– On our last blog, Lee and I used to make fun of right wingers. Matt Manweller was on the top of the list. And ick for ever to that guy.
– Melissa McEwan’s take on the John Koster story.
– Seattle’s plans for the storm season.
– Being wrong is the most important thing for conservative pundits.
– It’s a better world.
– I didn’t know anything about assassin bugs before reading this post.
No Joy in Those Numbers
I’m a pretty harsh critic of The Seattle Times. I think their coverage is more biased for a corporate status quo than they’ll care to admit and their editorials are sloppy and often off the mark. And with the ad for McKenna, they’ve put their partisanship on display.
But I don’t get any joy from their declining circulation numbers. For the best corrective to the Seattle Times’ sloppy efforts is better competition. When I read that they’d fallen off of the top 25 papers in the country, I thought of George Orwell’s lament at the end of World War Two that London only had 12 daily papers.
It is only when there are large numbers of newspapers, expressing all tendencies, that there is some chance of getting at the truth. Counting evenings, London has only twelve daily papers, and they cover the whole of the south of England and penetrate as far north as Glasgow. When they all decide to tell the same lie, there is no minority press to act as a check. In pre-war France the press was largely venal and scurrilous, but you could dig more news out of it than out of the British press, because every political faction had its paper and every viewpoint got a hearing.
Of course people get their news from the Internet now and from TV more than they did back then. But the biggest problem with TV news, with the Seattle Times, and most other daily papers in the region, is that they’re reporting from a similar perspective.
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