I’ve spent a lot of time hyping up the Burner/Reichert race in the WA’s 8th Congressional District, which is steadily sliding towards the toss-up category as the election approaches. But as it turns out, Dave Reichert isn’t our only Republican incumbent who should be looking over his shoulders.
Over in the 5th CD (the Eastern half of Eastern WA) Rep. Cathy McMorris is proving to be a lot more vulnerable than her friends in the local media seem ready to admit. Indeed, the latest round of internal polling conducted by Lake Research Partners suggests that this is a winnable seat for Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark… given the financial resources to communicate his message.
Here are the survey’s main conclusions:
- In the initial ballot, incumbent McMorris receives less than a majority of the vote against Goldmark despite a vast name recognition advantage. After both candidates get their messages out, Goldmark pulls into a virtual tie with McMorris
I’ll bet Goldmark would hug a rabbit if one hopped up to him, whereas RubberStampMcMorris wouldn’t know a rabbit from an armadillo if one bit her in the ass!
Ha ha ha! What a fantasy land you live in Goldstein. I grew up in that district, I know the voters. I wouldn’t expect some punk from Philly to even have a clue about those voters. McMorris will win that race, I say so here and now. There is no corrupt King County Elections Department to steal the election for what’s his name.
You are such a punk, you are afraid to declare here and now that NAY of your candidates will win in November.
Just gave to Reichert. Thanks for reminding me!
I’m in for $25 to Goldmark. Please give and help take back our country from rubberstamps for corruption.
just gave to Goldmark. Thanks for reminding me!
speaking of vulnerable, some laughing my *** stuff on uber Arab lover Cynthia McKinney…
“He says some Republicans want to stay out of it because “we love having a wing nut like McKinney as the face of the Democrat Party.” Others want to defeat her because “she is such a joke that she can’t get much done in Congress for her constituents.”
We-e-e-l-l-l McMorris was one of Jim West’s expressed fantasy desires. . . .
Sorry pbj, you’re way off. While it’s true that recently the 5th has been solidly Republican, it’s been more because of a viable candidate than any long-standing Republican bent. Nethercutt held on to the seat because of his reputation as a giant slayer, and McMorris won after running against a fellow who had a lot of baggage tied to his name. West siders like to knock Spokane as being a bunch of conservative farm folk, but the reality is that the 3rd LD (central Spokane, including the poorest precints in Washington) is one of the most solidly Democratic in the state, and the 6th (the rest of the city) has been about 50.5 to 49.5 for the last few election cycles. And lest you forget, it’s only been twelve years since the Washington 5th was represented by the Speaker of the House, a Democrat. It won’t be too long before it swings back to the Dems again.
*more because of a lack of a viable candidate, that is…
I’m still skeptical about reports/polls which show a low level of voter dissatisfaction with Republican incumbents. Not because I don’t believe them. It’s just that I’m not convinced that a dissatisfied Republican will translate into a Democratic vote.
A lot of those dissatisfied voters are disgusted that Bush and the Congress aren’t more competent, or not more “ideologically pure”. Those voters aren’t likely to vote Democratic. The most the Democrats can hope for is that they, and their money, will sit out the next round of elections.
In order to take advantage of that opening, the Democrats will need to turn out in numbers large enough to offset the Republicans who would vote for the devil if he were running, as long as its not a Democrat.\
But I’m certainly hopefull that I can be proven wrong…..
Indeed, the latest round of internal polling conducted by Lake Research Partners suggests that this is a winnable seat for Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark… given the financial resources to communicate his message.
In the initial ballot, incumbent McMorris receives less than a majority of the vote against Goldmark despite a vast name recognition advantage. After both candidates get their messages out, Goldmark pulls into a virtual tie with McMorris—37% for Goldmark to 39% for McMorris.
I smell an internal push poll. Looks like I was right when I posted about this a bit back and asked that.
Show me an Elkway or Spokesman-Review- poll that puts the race in single digits, and I’m game- but I distrust internal polling, especially push polling (“If you knew Candidate X was a Nazi baby-raper, would it affect your opinion?”), because negative ads don’t exist in a vacuum.
That being said, this MAY be a pickup opportunity in a midterm election that is rapidly becoming a referendum on a failed President- but I strongly suspect this is a pitch for money and national support (“Hey, we can make this competitive if you send us money for lots of advertising!”) rather than soundly based polling that shows what is on the ground NOW, and you have to execute.
I uploaded Goldmark’s first television ad for all interested:
http://www.ewpolitics.com/goldmarkad.html
McMorris just voted in Congress to lower the minimum wage for many Washington workers.
While Washiington State has the highest minimum wage in the country, McMorris listened to the Restaurant Association and decided to lower it for tipped workers. Doesn’t sound to me like she’s in tune with Washington workers and their families.
Fortunately Senators Cantwell and Murray and other Democrats in the Senate didn’t buy the deception and voted no on the House bill that also would have left more multimillionaires escape paying the inheritance tax.
@8,
You are wrong Vagabond. I grew up there, my entire family still lives there. The day of that areas going for a Democrat as long gone. There was a reason Tom foley was booted out. I was living in that district when Tom Foley got the boot. I helped kick him out.
McMorris will definitely win. No amount of west side slick spin machine will matter. You Democrats all view those east of the Cascades as a bunch of redneck biggoted rubes.
PBJ: You are exactly right. There is no possibility in the world that a D would be elected in Eastern Washington. However, if liberals want to get snoggy with their pillow and believe it’s all wrapped up, I say let them. The Goldstein and Cantwell signs are a waste of valuable renewable recources. Oh well, I guess the environment can withstand another losing Democrat’s landfill donation.
Can anyone show me anywhere what campaigning Goldmark has done? Looked at his website lately? Pathetic. One commercial just started running full of feel good stuff. His kids telling everyone to vote for their Dad. Certainly not composed for the dire times we find our country in right now. I honestly don’t see a serious strong campaign here. He’s running for a national office. Yet, I can’t find a thing about what he thinks about Iraq or where we are headed with the disaster in the ME. Anybody know? If he doesn’t get some “starch” soon, no matter how much they disapprove of *ush over here….he won’t get votes. Only three months to go. Time to get started, I’d say….and I’m on his side.
WINNABLE!!!! ITS WINNABLE!!!! I say this as a person who has doorbelled and campaigned recently in Spokane. The Dems are running very strong Democrats for local offices as well as congress. Chris Marr for state senate, Don Barlow for state house, and of course our buddy Peter Goldmark for congress! Peter can win the district because he matches it, he’s a rancher and a farmer who understands rural voters. McMorris looks like a Bellevue soccer mom, lets retire her.
Andrew