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Open Thread (Wednesday)

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It’s too early to call it, but it looks like two Democrats made it through to the general election for Lt. Governor. I don’t know if I like that as a possibility in our system. I do like getting the infighting out in August. And having an ability to vote straight ticket without thinking about it in November.

Still, it is nice knowing that if Governor Inslee becomes Cabinet Secretary Inslee that we know that there won’t be a Republican governor.

In any event, please wash your hands right now.

August 3 Open Thread

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Get your ballot postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow. Given the fuckery around the Post Office, I would say get it in today if you’re mailing it. If you’re dropping it off, get it to the box by 8:00 tomorrow.

Also, please wash your hands right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Seth Meyers: Sen. Kamala Harris explains the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.

Trevor: Florida news (LeBron helps ex-felons vote & The Dotard axes convention.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Now This: Immigrant children illegally detained by ICE in Texas Hotel.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Fascists and Dictator Wannabes:

Trevor: Breonna Taylor—Who she was, how she died, & why justice is overdue.

John Oliver: China and Uighurs.

Now This: Pres. Obama delivers powerful eulogy at John Lewis’ funeral.

Meidas Touch: Are you better off?:

Trevor: Sen. Tom Cotton opposes 1619 project-inspired history curriculum

ТрампPlague:

Move On: Your vote is power.

Lauren Mayer: Voter fraud is fraud.

Desi Lydic: Dr. David Campt about how white people can fight racism in their own social circles.

The Daily Show: FAUX News on deploying federal agents 2020 vs. 2014.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Open Thread Friday Morning

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This poll has a little bit of everything for people looking to defund the police, and for people who want to slow down the movement. People want to defund the police. But they don’t trust the City Council or the Mayor to do it. Carmen Best is still surprisingly popular. Don’t go too fast.

It’s a relatively new issue for most people, so maybe they haven’t had the time to solidify their positions. Still, the top line that people in Seattle want half of the police budget to go to social services instead is encouraging.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Election 2020: Biden maintains his substantial lead over Trump

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 378 electoral votes
Mean of 160 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My last analysis was about three weeks ago, and former Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump by 375 to 163 electoral votes. After adding about 150 new polls and undertaking 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 378 to Trump’s 160 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

I decided to do an extended set of simulated elections every seven days over the past year, where each simulation includes polls from the preceding month (FAQ). The resulting plot shows that Trump has been losing ground in the electoral college totals since early April.

For the simulated elections for today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ]:
[Read more…]

Monday Monday Monday! Thread Thread Thread!

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Stay cool everyone. Today is going to be too damn hot. Every year there are a few days where I think that I should get air conditioning.

Drink lots of water. Like, more than you think you need. You will want to get to the point where you are peeing clear. And when you’ve finished peeing wash your hands. Also, wash them right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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The Late Show: Ted Cruz warns Texas about the Blue Wave.

Trevor: Remembering John Lewis

Samantha Bee: From Hopeless to Hope-ish with Masha Gessen

Mother Jones: Mitch McConnell refuses to honor John Lewis’ legacy.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Liars, Scoundrels, and Treason Weasels:

Brave New Films: How prisons abuse the mentally ill

Stephen: A crowd surfing American hero—Remembering Congressman John Lewis.

Robert Reich: Reimagining public safety.

The Late Show: The King of Caveat knights Rep. Ted Yoho.

Now This: 93-year-old convicted in one of the last Nazi trials ever.

ТрампPlague:

Samantha Bee offers name alternatives for racist sports teams.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Seth Meyers: Joy Reid on White people joining the Black Lives Matter movement

Stephen: Greta Thunberg—Humanity is “setting fire to the boat” instead of facing the climate crisis.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Monday Afternoon Thread.

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I should probably write something…

Listen, I hate to do anything to benefit Portland, but if you’re able people I follow on social media recommended bail funds here. It’s scary what’s going on down there. The local police are scary enough, but add in the Feds kidnapping people off the street, and holy shit. Anyway, do what you can if you can.

Also, wash your hands right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Desi Lydic FAUXSplains “cancel culture”.

Bruce W. Nelson: Tucker Carlson’s the poster boy for meritless White privilege.

Now This: Militarized federal agents are seizing U.S. protesters in Portland

Stephen: W. Kamau Bell—America was built on White supremacy. it won’t go away until we redesign the system.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

The Dotard Трамп and His Barrel of Swamp Monkeys:

Vox: The fight for America’s 51st state, explained.

Jimmy Fallon: Stacey Abrams breaks down how to dismantle voter suppression.

Seth Meyers: Sen. Tammy Duckworth calls Tucker Carlson a gnat.

WaPo: 50 nights of protests—What you need to know about the tension in Portland.

Trevor: Biden’s poll numbers surge, but will 2020 be another 2016?

Mother Jones: Deconstructing the design and demolition of Confederate monuments.

ТрампPlague:

Roll Call: Democrats well positioned to take the Senate.

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 1

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 2

Jonathan Mann: Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor:

Mother Jones: Why scientists are so worried about this glacier.

Dulcé Sloan: Census suppression and why it matters.

Courtney Jaye: Get lost @TuckerCarlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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