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Election 2020: Election day Senate analysis

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/3/20, 10:33 am


Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats
Mean of 47 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 53.3 ( 1.1)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 46.7 ( 1.1)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 53 (51, 55)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 47 (45, 49)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 49
Strong Democrat 2 51
Leans Democrat 2 2 53
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 53
Weak Republican 0 0 0 47
Leans Republican 3 3 47
Strong Republican 5 44
Safe Republican 39

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 5 3548 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
AK 2 1404 48.6 51.4 21.7 78.3
AZ 25 17135 53.0 47.0 100.0 0.0
AR 2 1086 33.2 66.8 0.0 100.0
CO 6 3715 55.2 44.8 100.0 0.0
DE 1& 712 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
GA 16 13003 50.6 49.4 82.6 17.4
GA 4 2470 54.9 45.1 100.0 0.0
ID 1& 487 34.1 65.9 0.0 100.0
IL 2 1289 65.6 34.4 100.0 0.0
IA 14 9688 50.4 49.6 72.9 27.1
KS 3 2512 48.0 52.0 8.9 91.1
KY 5 2561 44.9 55.1 0.0 100.0
LA 1& 680 38.8 61.2 0.0 100.0
ME 4 3156 51.8 48.2 92.1 7.9
MA 2 1474 69.2 30.8 100.0 0.0
MI 29 22523 53.4 46.6 100.0 0.0
MN 11 7670 54.6 45.4 100.0 0.0
MS 2 1032 47.2 52.8 9.0 91.0
MT 6 4198 49.3 50.7 26.0 74.0
NE 1 395 27.3 72.7 0.0 100.0
NH 4 3090 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
NJ 2 1194 65.3 34.7 100.0 0.0
NM 1 1133 54.2 45.8 97.9 2.1
NC 28 22416 51.9 48.1 100.0 0.0
OK 1 5102 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
OR 1& 849 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
RI 0 0 (100) (0)
SC 7 5492 49.1 50.9 18.1 81.9
SD 1 455 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
TN 2 982 39.1 60.9 0.0 100.0
TX 18 18716 47.0 53.0 0.0 100.0
VA 6 4111 58.6 41.4 100.0 0.0
WV 1& 386 38.3 61.7 0.2 99.8
WY 0 0 (0) (100)

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

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Comments

  1. 1

    YLB spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 2:59 pm

    This is the kind of news that made Moscow Mitch turn purple:

    https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/10/mcconnell-hands.jpg?quality=90&strip=all

    Too fragile..

  2. 2

    ArtFart spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 5:52 pm

    You mean purpler.

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