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Election 2020: Biden leads on election day

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/3/20, 10:16 am

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 360 electoral votes
Mean of 178 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

  • 351 electoral votes with a 14.63% probability
  • 350 electoral votes with a 8.32% probability
  • 352 electoral votes with a 6.84% probability
  • 389 electoral votes with a 4.08% probability
  • 357 electoral votes with a 3.95% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 3.62% probability
  • 354 electoral votes with a 3.24% probability
  • 356 electoral votes with a 3.11% probability
  • 353 electoral votes with a 2.80% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 359.6 (18.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 178.4 (18.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 353 (334, 403)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 185 (135, 204)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Biden 248
Strong Biden 85 333
Leans Biden 18 18 351
Weak Biden 0 0 0 351
Weak Trump 0 0 0 187
Leans Trump 66 66 187
Strong Trump 58 121
Safe Trump 63

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

1 1 EC # Total % % Biden Trump
6 2 Votes polls Votes Biden Trump % wins % wins
AL 9 4 2385 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
AK 3 1 731 45.3 54.7 3.5 96.5
AZ 11 17 11877 51.0 49.0 93.7 6.3
AR 6 1* 573 33.0 67.0 0.0 100.0
CA 55 2 1362 65.3 34.7 100.0 0.0
CO 9 4 2486 56.7 43.3 100.0 0.0
CT 7 1 359 65.5 34.5 100.0 0.0
DE 3 1* 737 62.0 38.0 100.0 0.0
DC 3 0* (100) (0)
FL 29 30 31682 51.5 48.5 100.0 0.0
GA 16 13 9325 50.7 49.3 82.3 17.7
HI 4 1* 880 68.5 31.5 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1* 565 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
IL 20 4 2425 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
IN 11 3 1640 44.1 55.9 0.0 100.0
IA 6 8 6405 49.4 50.6 22.1 77.9
KS 6 1 1077 42.7 57.3 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1 370 43.0 57.0 2.9 97.1
LA 8 1 362 40.9 59.1 0.7 99.3
ME 2 3 2476 56.5 43.5 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 3 1266 61.6 38.4 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 3 1207 51.1 48.9 69.4 30.6
MD 10 1 493 68.4 31.6 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1 836 68.9 31.1 100.0 0.0
MI 16 22 16332 53.8 46.2 100.0 0.0
MN 10 8 5922 54.9 45.1 100.0 0.0
MS 6 2 1026 42.7 57.3 0.1 99.9
MO 10 3 2492 45.8 54.2 0.3 99.7
MT 3 2 1724 48.1 51.9 13.5 86.5
NE 2 0 (0) (100)
NE1 1 1* 376 48.9 51.1 38.4 61.6
NE2 1 2 1322 51.4 48.6 76.4 23.6
NE3 1 0 (0) (100)
NV 6 5 4439 52.6 47.4 99.4 0.6
NH 4 3 2398 55.9 44.1 100.0 0.0
NJ 14 3 1129 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
NM 5 1 1133 56.2 43.8 99.8 0.2
NY 29 2 908 65.9 34.1 100.0 0.0
NC 15 26 21488 50.7 49.3 94.5 5.5
ND 3 1* 405 42.0 58.0 0.7 99.3
OH 18 13 11478 49.3 50.7 13.5 86.5
OK 7 1* 5193 38.5 61.5 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1 317 61.8 38.2 99.7 0.3
PA 20 30 27038 52.5 47.5 100.0 0.0
RI 4 0 (100) (0)
SC 9 6 4744 46.5 53.5 0.0 100.0
SD 3 1 460 42.2 57.8 0.8 99.2
TN 11 1 477 41.5 58.5 0.5 99.5
TX 38 8 8407 49.4 50.6 22.3 77.7
UT 6 2* 1507 44.5 55.5 0.1 99.9
VT 3 1* 549 65.9 34.1 100.0 0.0
VA 13 4 2237 56.1 43.9 100.0 0.0
WA 12 1 477 60.4 39.6 99.9 0.1
WV 5 1* 522 39.5 60.5 0.0 100.0
WI 10 13 8594 54.4 45.6 100.0 0.0
WY 3 1* 552 34.4 65.6 0.0 100.0

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

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Related

Comments

  1. 1

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 10:23 am

    The real margin of error in statistical analyses is this:

    “For the fifth day in a row, the US Postal Service moved fewer ballots on-time in critical battleground states than it did in the previous day, according to new court filings.”

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/11/03/postal-service-ballot-delivery-2020-election-vpx.cnn

    and this:

    “Robocalls are falsely telling Michigan residents to stay home on Election Day and vote Wednesday instead, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel says. The robocalls to residents in Flint, Michigan, tell voters to cast ballots Wednesday due to long lines at election polling places, Nessel says. ‘Obviously this is FALSE and an effort to suppress the vote,’ Nessel tweeted.”

    https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/nation-world/national/article246922502.html

    How do you statistically measure the legitimate votes that aren’t counted because of crap like this? Here’s my suggestion: Make it against the law, then count how many Republicans are behind bars, estimate the number of voters in each state they kept from voting, and that gives you the approximate numbers.

  2. 2

    @godwinha spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 10:53 am

    Biden up by 7 in PA. So the reason so say something like this on Election Day is…

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    ·
    2h
    Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon: “We continue to have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes” says they can win 270 even without PA and FL

    I get it, he’s up 7 on average, and Marist has him up 5 and over 50% – to me that sounds solid for ol’ Joe. It’s just a curious thing for his campaign manager to say with that big a lead in PA and zero days until the election.

  3. 3

    @godwinha spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 11:10 am

    It may be an Election Day full of curious tweets and recorded comments from people who are privy to the inside numbers:

    Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    Starting to fall down the Florida election day turnout rabbit hole. Already went for a run so I think I’d just better go and play some FIFA or something.
    10:31 AM · Nov 3, 2020

  4. 4

    @godwinha spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 11:19 am

    Re @ 1

    It’s debatable whether your spew should be include in this thread.

    Your spew approaches irrelevance if all of the D mail-in votes were sent in early, doesn’t it?

    Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    ·
    3h
    Of mail votes that came in though Friday, Democrats had a 23-point party registration edge. But it’s just 7 points on ballots that came in *since* Friday. Dems did a good job of getting their ballots in early, in other words. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Looks like I’ll be dropping my ballot off at the Coupeville location. Haven’t opened it to vote yet.

  5. 5

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 11:36 am

    @4 The fact you claim #1’s commentary on statistical analysis is of debatable relevance in a thread about statistical analysis doesn’t make it debatable. However, if you wish to appeal to higher authority, write your complaint here _ and send it here [ ].

  6. 6

    N in Seattle spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 2:16 pm

    I find it interesting that there isn’t a single state in the “Weak” category … for either side. Seems like the relative positions are pretty well fixed.

    Unless, that is, turnout and/or demographic projections are off-base. Which, I think, would bode better for the D side than the R, as the unanticipated differences would surely be toward higher turnout and younger voters. It would be sweet as honey if TX or OH squeezed into the Democratic column.

  7. 7

    Richard Pope spews:

    Tuesday, 11/3/20 at 6:17 pm

    Trump likely takes FL GA NC, but he is still 22 votes short if rest of your calls are accurate.

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