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Election 2020: With days remaining Biden leads Trump

by Darryl — Friday, 10/30/20, 8:29 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes
Mean of 165 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.

In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

  • 357 electoral votes with a 10.19% probability
  • 351 electoral votes with a 8.08% probability
  • 395 electoral votes with a 6.65% probability
  • 389 electoral votes with a 5.86% probability
  • 358 electoral votes with a 5.36% probability
  • 352 electoral votes with a 4.50% probability
  • 375 electoral votes with a 4.30% probability
  • 396 electoral votes with a 3.50% probability
  • 369 electoral votes with a 3.33% probability
  • 390 electoral votes with a 2.66% probability

The table shows the most likely outcome for Biden is 357 electoral votes (10% probability). In fact, 83% of the outcomes fall between 350 and 499. Biden wins in a 400+ EV landslide with a 10% probability. And the probability of Biden receiving under 350 EVs is only 7%.

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 373.0 (21.5)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 165.0 (21.5)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 370 (337, 413)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 168 (125, 201)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Biden 247
Strong Biden 103 350
Leans Biden 1 1 351
Weak Biden 6 6 6 357
Weak Trump 38 38 38 181
Leans Trump 19 19 143
Strong Trump 53 124
Safe Trump 71

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

1 1 EC # Total % % Biden Trump
6 2 Votes polls Votes Biden Trump % wins % wins
AL 9 2 1075 40.1 59.9 0.0 100.0
AK 3 2 1491 46.3 53.7 2.1 97.9
AZ 11 18 11842 51.2 48.8 96.3 3.7
AR 6 2 1165 34.8 65.2 0.0 100.0
CA 55 3 6695 67.9 32.1 100.0 0.0
CO 9 5 3413 57.0 43.0 100.0 0.0
CT 7 1 778 66.1 33.9 100.0 0.0
DE 3 1* 737 62.0 38.0 100.0 0.0
DC 3 0* (100) (0)
FL 29 31 31128 51.5 48.5 99.9 0.1
GA 16 17 13126 51.0 49.0 93.9 6.1
HI 4 1* 880 68.5 31.5 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1* 565 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1 413 55.7 44.3 94.9 5.1
IN 11 3 1464 45.5 54.5 1.2 98.8
IA 6 9 5448 50.1 49.9 55.9 44.1
KS 6 3 3864 42.5 57.5 0.0 100.0
KY 8 2 821 41.5 58.5 0.1 99.9
LA 8 1 717 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 2 1723 57.2 42.8 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 2 850 62.6 37.4 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2 873 51.8 48.2 76.4 23.6
MD 10 1 746 63.8 36.2 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1 663 68.8 31.2 100.0 0.0
MI 16 28 23236 53.2 46.8 100.0 0.0
MN 10 8 5443 53.9 46.1 100.0 0.0
MS 6 1 487 42.7 57.3 1.1 98.9
MO 10 1 969 46.9 53.1 6.7 93.3
MT 3 6 4097 47.3 52.7 0.7 99.3
NE 2 0 (0) (100)
NE1 1 1* 376 48.9 51.1 39.1 60.9
NE2 1 2* 890 54.8 45.2 98.2 1.8
NE3 1 0* (0) (100)
NV 6 5 3495 52.7 47.3 98.7 1.3
NH 4 6 4465 55.8 44.2 100.0 0.0
NJ 14 4 2354 61.9 38.1 100.0 0.0
NM 5 1 570 56.8 43.2 98.9 1.1
NY 29 1 486 66.7 33.3 100.0 0.0
NC 15 33 25338 51.1 48.9 99.3 0.7
ND 3 1* 405 42.0 58.0 1.4 98.6
OH 18 9 8492 49.5 50.5 25.4 74.6
OK 7 1 5193 38.5 61.5 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 897 59.0 41.0 100.0 0.0
PA 20 31 25983 53.0 47.0 100.0 0.0
RI 4 0 (100) (0)
SC 9 7 5270 46.6 53.4 0.0 100.0
SD 3 1 569 43.9 56.1 2.0 98.0
TN 11 2* 1407 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
TX 38 12 12380 49.9 50.1 40.9 59.1
UT 6 1 880 43.2 56.8 0.3 99.7
VT 3 1 549 65.9 34.1 100.0 0.0
VA 13 5 3879 56.4 43.6 100.0 0.0
WA 12 1 592 61.8 38.2 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1 522 39.5 60.5 0.0 100.0
WI 10 19 13056 53.4 46.6 100.0 0.0
WY 3 1 552 34.4 65.6 0.0 100.0

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

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