The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.
The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.
This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:
Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):
Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.
The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 357 electoral votes with a 22.04% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 12.49% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 10.67% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 5.40% probability
- 395 electoral votes with a 4.16% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 3.89% probability
- 340 electoral votes with a 2.96% probability
- 350 electoral votes with a 2.93% probability
- 375 electoral votes with a 2.77% probability
- 360 electoral votes with a 2.48% probability
The smallest electoral college vote going to Biden was 333, but the probability of anything under 340 votes is only 2.6%. Biden would have a 2% chance of receiving over 400 electoral votes.
Summary: After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 361.5 (16.3)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 176.5 (16.3)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 357 (339, 398)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 181 (140, 199)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|6||2||Votes||polls||Votes||Biden||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.