Great job, King County. We’re smashing all sorts of records for early voting. I don’t know if this presages higher turnout or if it will taper off. Maybe people are worried about the Post Office so they’re dropping their ballots in the boxes rather than the mail?
No matter what, please seal your ballot with a sponge and wash your hands.
Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know
Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies
Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Biden—Harris 2020:
SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.
Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.
Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday
The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:
Vox: How the next president could change policing.
The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate
Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.
TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:
The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.
Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman
SCOTUS Tragedy:
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Tim Eyman’s latest garbage car tabs initiative is unconstitutional. At this point he must know not to do a multiple issues initiative. Like have a lawyer look it over. Or don’t, since Eyman gets to keep fundraising on the same initiative and agencies get to keep their car tab money.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
King County is mailing ballots today. So you should get yours within a few days. Same give or take for the rest of the state. So if you don’t have a ballot by next week, you can bug your country official. In King County, you can drop it at one of these boxes. Or mail them.
Anyway, use a sponge instead of linking your envelope. And wash your hands right now.
 |
 |
Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793
Trevor: Columbus Day
Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.
Biden—Harris 2020:
Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.
Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited
The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:
Vox: How US schools punish Black kids
Amber Ruffin: The week in review
Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments
Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:
Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?
Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I listened to the gubernatorial debate while doing dishes. Now, a day late, here’s my impressions.
Jay Inslee was a bit off his game on a few issues. Western State Hospital desertification in particular. But he was pretty good overall.
Culp was something else. From flirting with conspiracy theories about the wildfires to saying he would have sent the National Guard with guns to the East Precinct protest, Culp was scary. Please don’t vote for him.
And please do wash your hands right now.
 |
 |
For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.
Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.
Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.
Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.
North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:
Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:
Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]
Are you ready for debates tonight? Well tough shit, we’re going to have Vice Presidential and gubernatorial debates. I already know who I am voting for, but I will probably tune in. Will Culp manage to sell himself in any way, or if he comes across as awful as his policies.
But before the debates, in fact right now, you should go wash your hands.
My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.
This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.
Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
|
|
It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.
Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):
Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
It’s not medieval or early modern Europe. You can notice that the leader is sick. And that it’s still possibly deadly. Nobody wants the President to die,but jeez, he might be dying.
Stephen: Lindsey Graham is on the ropes in South Carolina as Republicans struggle in several red state races.
John Oliver: The Supreme Court
Now This: What you need to know about the Proud Boys
Samantha Bee: How the school choice debate is failing our public schools
Americans for Decency: Good shenanigans vs. GOP purges and Трамп distractions
Biden—Harris 2020:
Songbird: A tribute to Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Vice News: Inside Portland’s turf war between proud boys and local antifascists
John Oliver: Census update.
Trevor: Wildfires.
AJ+: How Republicans pulled off a massive voter purge
Trainwreck Трамп and His Toy Storm Troopers:
Meidas Touch: Fire Susan—Susan Collins betrayed us
The Late Show: Great moments in debate history—Nuclear missile worries about Reagan’s age
The Daily Show: The GOP makes it harder for ex-felons to vote in Florida
Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Unpatriotic history
Typhoid Donnie and Other Vectors of Disease, Death, and Decay:
Robert Reich: GOP takeover of the Supreme Court—What you need to know
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Trevor: Rev. Al Sharpton—How to protest based on tangible goals
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
As of yesterday, Metro Transit and the Water Taxi are charging fares again. I know the agencies need money. But this, while the pandemic is still raging. I haven’t ridden the bus since the start of the pandemic. So I don’t know, are people now bunching up at the door?
Anyway, go wash your hands right now.
| Democratic Governors | Republican Governors |
| Mean of 23 seats | Mean of 27 seats |
There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.
After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.
Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!