HorsesAss.Org

Christ. You can’t just. I mean. It’s bad enough what the police are doing. But random civilians driving into, and shooting into, crowds. What a shit. Just an absolute, unparalleled shit.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Trevor: A look back at the legacy of stop-and-frisk in New York City.

ТрампPlague:

• John Oliver: Voting by mail
• The Late Show: Melania needs a new smile machine
• Now This: Trump waives environmental protection regulations
• Bruce W. Nelson: The legend of slimy Don and the wreck of the ship “America”
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп has a new doctor for America
• The Late Show: New Jersey makes a bid for Трамп’s relocated convention
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп attacks Mattis and builds White House fence
• Bill Maher with Rosa Brooks and Michael Steele: Blood in the streets next November?
• Vox: Why Covid-19 is more AND less deadly than we knew
• Sarah Cooper: Трамп on how to bible
• John Di Domenico: Трамп demands voter fraud, ballot harvesting & children be OUTLAWED!
• Bruce W. Nelson: If Трамп were a ship he would be the Titantic
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп responds to Obama’s speech

The Daily Show: Eight times America surprised Trevor.

The Dotard Fiddled While America Burned:

• Seth Meyers: Mattis Denounces Трамп, Cotton calls for deploying troops against protests
• Late Night: Pained historical comparison cowboy
• Conan: Van Jones on George Floyd, police brutality, & what comes next
• Bill Maher: Is America great enough for you yet?
• NY Times: We’re sick and tired—Voices From Minneapolis protests
• The Late Show: The gospel according to Don
• College Humor: Tide CEO says soap isn’t medicine
• Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—Skipping in Chicago
• Now This: Michigan Sheriff joins protesters marching for George Floyd
• James Corden: Malcolm Corden teaches Трамп how to hold the bible
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп promises to dominate Jesus Christ
• Foundation Singers: HELL! Трамп, George Floyd & protesters:

• Stephen: After days of unrest, America needs moral leadership. Instead, we have The Dotard Трамп
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel on protests, Трамп’s bible photo op & white privilege
• Seth Meyers: Michael Che talks about the Black Lives Matter protests
• Hasan Minhaj: How coronavirus broke America
• Conan: Statement on the killing of George Floyd
• Stephen: Trump sics military on peaceful protesters and clergy to make way for bible photo op
• The Late Show: God photo-bombs Трамп
• Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—When I tell you to stop, you stop
• WaPo: Here’s how to identify law enforcement officers and National Guard units
• The Daily Show: Experience the upheaval of the 1960’s all over again
• Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker bitch
• Stephen: America’s citizens will not be silenced by government intimidation
• James Corden and Reggie Watts: It’s time for change in the US
• Seth Meyers: Трамп threatens to deploy military in response to protests
• Lauren Mayer: I’m a Jew (but I know that ain’t Christian), bible photo-op edition:

• Jonathan Mann: I am anti fascist and the President says i’m a terrorist
• Jimmy Kimmel: Trump fumes over bunker & bible photo op
• Stephen: Chris Hayes—Трамп’s “Enemy of the people” rhetoric has put the press in danger
• Conan: W. Kamau Bell on #BlackLivesMatter & the importance of showing your work
• Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—Driving as a teen
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard finally addresses the protests
• Stephen: Sen. Cory Booker talks race, empathy, and his legislation to stop abuses of power by law enforcement
• Mark Fiore: Operation Photo Op
• Jimmy Kimmel: Wanda Sykes on Black Lives Matter, quarantine with her twins & Twitter feud with Scott Baio
• The Late Show: Трамп’s speech has RoboCop thinking about a career change
• J-L Cauvin: Bunker Трамп addresses the nation
• Stephen: Chris Hayes—You couldn’t find a worst person for this moment
• Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—It’s a new day
• Jimmy Kimmel: Shaquille O’Neal on George Floyd, discrimination & talking to his sons
• Hasan Minhaj: We cannot stay silent about George Floyd:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s deranged response to the George Floyd protests
• Jonathan Mann: Did you hear what happened in Boston
• Stephen: Shockingly brutal police tactics deployed nationwide as protests unite Americans of all backgrounds
• Bill Maher: The blue wall of silence
• WaPo editorial: The rot in policing has spread beyond just ‘a few bad apples’
• The Late Show: GOP Senators speak out after Трамп gasses U.S. citizens
• Vox: Protests aren’t what they look like on TV
• James Corden: Dr. Michael Eric Dyson discusses civil unrest across America
• Trevor breaks down reparations & white privilege
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп has the strongest sympathy
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп and his bunker, and the Devil and Hell
• Stephen: Dictator fanboy Трамп gets his wish as military vehicles roll down the streets of Washington
• Late Night: Amber’s minute of fury—Police violence against peaceful protestors

Wyatt Cenac: Segregation problems and school integration

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I am glad that Tacoma is taking the death of Manuel Ellis at the hands of a Tacoma police officer seriously. It seems to have taken a video (and the work of many people on the ground). Still I hope his family and community get some kind of justice.

And please wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes	Mean of 184 electoral votes

It has been mid-May since I published one of these analyses. back then, Biden led Trump in the electoral college with a mean of 348 to 190 votes.

Now, with over 40 new polls, Biden still leads. In the 10,000 simulated elections, Biden won all 10,000 times. Biden received (on average) 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. If the election was today, we would expect Biden to win with a greater than 99.9% probability.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

The other day, a helicopter was circling over my neighborhood. It was during the day, and not particularly close to any protest that I was aware of. The urban core has more helicopters since the George Floyd murder.

Anyway, a crow that lives in one of the trees near my apartment and that crow was not having it. It stayed cawing at the helicopter for like an hour. Wir wir wir. Caw caw caw. Going to protest kind of feels like being that crow. It may or may not be making a difference, but it would be worse to say nothing.

This isn’t a great metaphor, but it would be great if you wash your hands right now.

Dear Mayor Durkan (cc Chief Best),

While I have many problems with the police response to the protests over the weekend, this email is about one aspect. I read with horror about the rifles that briefly went missing on Saturday. Shame on the city for bringing rifles to a protest.

Were the police planning on getting into a shootout with protesters? However much property damage and calamity there may have been, there is no situation where having rifles is an improvement. It is horrible policy on its own. It is also bad symbolism at a protest of deadly police violence. I urge you to not bring rifles to future civilian protests.

Thank You

Carl Ballard

(Not included in the letter, wash your hands right now.)

Lauren Mayer: “One Plate at a Time”.

Bill Maher: All bets are off

ТрампPlague:

• The Daily Show: 100,000 accomplished
• Trevor: A Costco face mask showdown
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп wants essential churches open!
• Vox: How coronavirus spreads outdoors vs. indoors
• Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard wants to SHUT DOWN Twitter
• Michael Kosta meets the Grim Reaper
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Trumps” (with apologies to Joyce Kilmer)
• Barack Obama: “Pissed Away”:

• Daily Show: Трамп’s totally not weird way of standing
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп Tuesdays #5
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп blames Obama in song
• Late Night storytime: Трамп family quarantine
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп golfs & pool parties in the Ozarks
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп fights voting by mail fraud and masks
• Mother Jones: The racist history behind Трамп’s violent tweet
• Full Frontal: The Pandemic Diaries
• Mark Fiore: Human capital stock
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard trashes his supporters in leaked phone call
• Bruce W. Nelson: Ignore the experts, and listen to Трамп’s gut
• Daily Show: Microsoft Excel—Coronavirus Edition
• David Crosby: “What are their names”
• Red State Update: CHLOROQUINE (Parody of John Deere Green):

• Hasan Minhaj: Kamala Harris discusses COVID-19 and the election
• Roy Wood Jr.: Tired of wearing a mask? Leo Deblin has the solution
• Vox: What Bill Gates hopes we learn from coronavirus
• Bruce W. Nelson: Donald Trump vaccine (available to Americans, November 3, 2020)
• J-L Cauvin: Happy Memorial Day from The Dotard
• AJ+: A tale of two pandemics
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Twitter feud with Twitter
• Trevor: Animals in the time of coronavirus

Now This: Michelle Obama surprises students engaged in voter registration.

Hasan Minhaj: The legal marijuana industry is rigged

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Black Lives Matter:

• Now This: Former V.P. Joe Biden remarks on the killing of George Floyd
• Trevor: George Floyd, Minneapolis protests, Ahmaud Arbery & Amy Cooper
• Now This: CNN reporter and crew arrested live on-air in Minneapolis
• Vice News: Anti-police brutality protests are going national even in a pandemic
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel on George Floyd, riots in Minneapolis & Трамп’s violent stupidity.
• Now This: Minnesota AG Keith Ellison responds to the killing

Robert Reich: Robert Reich’s advice to the Class of 2020.

Vice News: Navajo Nation may finally get a better shot at voting in the presidential election

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

A few months after the initial need, this week the stimulus package finally got help to me. The stimulus check arrived. And, more important to me, the company I work for finally had its PPP loan approved. So that’s good.

It is still frustrating. These things should have happened sooner. I have enough savings and if worst came to worst, I could have moved in with family. So the delay wasn’t bad for me (except for the stress of not knowing about my job) but it really should have been faster for people who needed it right away.

Anyway, go wash your hands right now.

Lauren Mayer: It’s not nice to screw Mother Nature.

Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part I.

Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part II.

Hasan Minhaj: What happens if you can’t pay rent?

Roll Call: Doggy doo, rucksacks and Starbucks—Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Catty Kombat final round—The Dotard Трамп vs. Nancy Pelosi
• Seth Meyers: Trump attacks vote-by-mail, refuses to wear a mask
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп appoints James Woods to his cabinet!
• Bruce W. Nelson: Obamagate (the song)
• Robert Reich: A tale of two pandemics
• The New Yorker: The rise of Sheriffs opposing lockdown
• Jaboukie Young White: Rich people in the time of corona
• Stephen: Muzzled By Трамп, the CDC releases watered down guidelines for reopening
• Randy Rainbow: DISTRACTION!:

• Trevor: Top 20 quarantine tips
• John Di Domenico: Трамп meets with top religious leaders demands churches open now!
• Sarah Cooper: How to hydroxychloroquine
• The Late Show: Trump’s miracle drug—side effects may vary
• SNL: Dr. Birx Ad
• Trevor: Why are we still having the mask debate?
• J-L Cauvin: Donald Trump reviews Joe Biden on The Breakfast Club
• Stephen: Our positively negative President says “We’ll put out the fires” of any second waves of infection
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hail to our Hydroxychloro Queen!
• Jimmy Kimmel with another quarantine monologue
• The Late Show: Mike Pompeo’s aide mixes up his errands
• Jordan Klepper: Standing up for the anti-anti-lockdown movement
• Seth Meyers: Трамп says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine
• J-L Cauvin: Trump Tuesdays—Episode 4
• Trevor with Madeleine Albright: Diplomacy during coronavirus
• Bill Maher: Entrance strategy
• The Late Show: We know why Mike Pompeo wanted the Inspector General fired
• Bruce W. Nelson: Something great’s going to happen:

• The Daily Show: FAUX News doesn’t think this man is fit to e President
• Mark Fiore: MAGA Masks!
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп is “Man of the Year” & “King of Ventilators”
• Stephen: Трамп fires State Dept. IG to protect Mike Pompeo & reveals he’s taking hydroxychloroquine
• The Late Show: Human-cow hybrids may provide the cure to COVID-19
• Trevor: The Mike Pompeo scandal & Трамп’s tantrum over mail-in ballots
• Seth Meyers: Obama speaks out about Трамп’s coronavirus failures
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп congratulates his law school daughter
• John Di Domenico: “Testing is OVERRATED and not needed!”
• The Late Show: Трамп calls Obama incompetent & falls down a manhole
• The Second City PSA: It’s Okay
• Trevor: Vaccine updates and Трамп fires another inspector general
• Jimmy Kimmel: Does Трамп have a death wish?
• Nancy Pelosi on unapproved drugs and Трамп’s “weight group”
• Bruce W. Nelson: Amazing medical tips from Трамп
• The Foundation Singers: “Like a Kidney Stone”:

• The Late Show: Mike Pompeo’s aide mixes up his errands
• WaPo: COVID-19 myths debunked by Congressional Candidate Qasim Rashid
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп delivers commencement speech for class of 2020
• Stephen: Трамп claps back after Pelosi says the “morbidly obese” President shouldn’t take hydroxychloroquine
• Dr. Seema Yasmin: Doctor explains how fast a COVID-19 vaccine could be created
• Vox: One reason why coronavirus hits black people the hardest
• Trevor: Трамп takes hydroxychloroquine
• Jon Oliver: Coronavirus VII—Sports
• Bruce W. Nelson: He’s Just a Victim (No one’s suffered like The Dotard Трамп)
• The Late Show: GOP recruits pro-Трамп doctors to support reopening push

Bill Maher: New Rule—Prime boss.

Winlar: Strip mall zoo.

Jonathan Mann: Climb the rope! Thanks, China (Ben Sasse Commencment remix).

Trevor: President Obama speaks to the Class of 2020.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Stop sweeping homeless encampments. Gah. There are no good solutions until we can build a lot more housing. But Jesus Christ on the cross, can we not? Especially in a pandemic, but even after.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Good for AG Ferguson for getting 2 gyms to close during the stay home order. Honestly, I couldn’t imagine a worse place to choose to be than at the gym right now. Can’t wait to share equipment with people who are heavily breathing, indoors, and depending on the layout maybe impossible to social distance. One of the gyms says that it’s taking precautions, but still ick.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Ti’s very dispiriting that Washington state has hit 1000 confirmed coronavirus dead. Social distancing and hand washing have slowed down the spread. But still, here we are. It’s better than if it had happened weeks or a month ago.

Anyway wash your hands right now.

Samantha Bee: RoboSam and the rise of telemedicine.

The Daily Show: A message for the graduation class of 2020.

John Oliver: USPS.

Jonathan Mann: You chose Alex Jones.

Vox: Why beef is the worst food for the climate.

TрампPlague:

• The Daily Show: Desi Lydic calls Aunt Jeanine
• Stephen: Tрамп insists we’ve “prevailed” as Dr. Fauci refuses to sugarcoat his coronavirus outlook
• Reflect: Tрамп shows off bio-hazard binder to trick Americans into thinking he knew what he was doing
• J-L Cauvin: Tрамп Tuesday, Episode 2
• Seth Meyers: Whistleblower Rick Bright’s damning testimony on Tрамп’s COVID-19 failures
• SNL Weekend Update: Jeanine Pirro on coronavirus lockdown protests
• Trevor: FBI seizes Senator’s phone & Wisconsin Supreme Court overturns lockdown
• Samantha Bee: How coronavirus is starving the nation, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: How coronavirus is starving the nation, Pt. 2
• Now This: Dr. Fauci warns Senators against reopening states prematurely
• The Late Show: Ted Cruz’s hairs seek deliverance from his head
• Jimmy Kimmel with a quarantine monologue
• Stephen: Tрамп throws shade at Dr. Rick Bright as the whistleblower warns congress of dark days ahead
• Mark Fiore: Open for business
• The Atlantic: Tрамп: A study in leadership
• Founders Sing: Barr on the run:

• The Daily Show: Rand Paul’s tie slaps some sense into him
• Seth Meyers: Trump goes off the rails on Twitter and FAUX News
• Trevor: What the fuck is “Obamagate”?
• Ummmm…Tрамп baby
• Stephen: Jake Tapper on Michael Flynn and norm erosion
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Tрамп DESTROYS 60 Minutes
• The Late Show: Superhero wants “Obamagate” crime specifics
• Now This: Whistleblower of coronavirus tried to warn the Tрамп administration
• Late Night antibody PSA
• Bruce W. Nelson: A salute to angry Tрамп followers
• The Daily Show: Tрамп’s coronavirus response timeline
• SNL Weekend Update: Trump’s valet tests positive for coronavirus
• Trevor and Desi Lydic: Seriously, what is Obamagate?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Fauci testifies & Tрамп pushes Obamagate
• Stephen: Tрамп’s Rose Garden hissy fit, plus the dumbest thing The Dotard has ever said
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Tрамп wants to get to 401K
• The Late Show: Tрамп will be right here waiting for you
• Robert Reich: The real reason Tрамп wants to reopen the economy
• Sarah Cooper: More cases than anybody in the world
• Seth Meyers: PPP and small businesses
• SNL: Tрамп graduation speech
• Trevor: White House coronavirus outbreak
• Stephen: Jake Tapper on Tрамп’s downplaying of the coronavirus
• Lars von Retriever: MetalTrump…and justice for all
• Jimmy Kimmel: Tрамп & FAUX News vs Fauci and no more pants
• The Daily Show game: What was Tрамп asked about?
• Bruce W. Nelson: Weak men fear strong women
• Lauren Mayer: The angry old man:

• J-L Cauvin: Tрамп Tuesday, Episode 3
• Vox: Dr. Anthony Fauci, explained
• The Late Show: Tрамп crashes the Supreme Court’s oral arguments teleconference
• Full Frontal: Reimagining the nation post-pandemic
• Trevor: The latest in coronavirus science
• Stephen: Republicans are sick of Dr. Fauci reminding them of how many people could get sick
• Now This: Dr. Fauci claps back at Sen. Rand Paul for suggesting schools reopen
• John Di Domenico: Missing uplifting Tрамп speech Americans want
• Seth Meyers: Tрамп and FAUX try to distract from coronavirus with “Obamagate”
• The Daily Show: DUMBKIRK—Tрамп declares war on coronavirus
• Jimmy Kimmel: Tрамп’s whistleblower tantrum & stupidity on parade
• USA Singers: We will resist
• The Late Show: White House staffers worry about catching coronavirus at work
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard re-opens MAR-A-LAGO!

Dulcé Sloan: Why should you fill out the 2020 census?

Barack and Michelle Obama crash a virtual town hall.

BuzzFeed: Everything you need to know about murder hornets in 6 minutes.

The Daily Show: Womansplained—The wage gap, female representation & the E.R.A.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Now that Darryl is doing the polling analysis, I want to remind you that you are a participant in the system. and family. Seeing the polls can make the election seem like it’s a force of nature. But the good news is that you can make a difference. You can donate. You can make calls. You can write about the candidates online or a letter to the editor. Send a postcard to a voter. Talk to your friends.

You are also a participant in washing your hands so wash them right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 348 electoral votes	Mean of 190 electoral votes

Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.

The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:

That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.

Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.

Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:

There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]