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It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.

I should be able to do some commentary.

Have at it in the comment thread.

4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:

The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….

4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.

4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:

• Romney 50%
• Gingrich 25%
• Paul 15%
• Santorum 8%

5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.

5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.

5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):

• Romney 34.3%
• Gingrich 30.3%
• Paul 18.2%
• Santorum 17.2%

5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.

• Romney 41.7%
• Gingrich 27.0%
• Santorum 15.9%
• Paul 15.5%

5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.

• Romney 45.9%
• Gingrich 20.8%
• Santorum 17.7%
• Paul 15.5%

5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:

• Romney 36.7%
• Paul 29.6%
• Gingrich 19.7%
• Santorum 12.9%

5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]

The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.

The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)

WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.

WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.

These ratings have been stable for awhile.

Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.

Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:

The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….

Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.

And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.

Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.

I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.

Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.

So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.

An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.

The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….

Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.

The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.

This is going to get real interesting!

Thom: AZ Gov. Brewer’s latest war…on public workers.

ONN: Panelists discussing debate clearly didn’t watch it.

Jennifer Granholm: Why GOP policies don’t address income disparities in America.

Young Turks: Republicans busting public employee unions in AZ.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

The SuperPAC Bites Back:

• Ann Telnaes: Feeding the SuperPac beast
• Stephen on the Americone Dream Super Pack pack.
• Mark Fiore: Generic SuperPac Advertisement.
• Stephen: The Greatest American SuperPAC donors.
• SuperPAC meets the Superbowl.

Young Turks: The rectal exam amendment to anti-abortion bill.

White House: Tuskegee Airmen visit the White House:

Pap: How will the Occupy movement evolve?

Ed: “Wisconsin on steroids”.

Young Turks: Obama’s National Prayer Breakfast (Romney vs the poor).

Sam Seder: Indiana state Senate find Scientology in their Creationism.

Flashback: Newt Gingrich talks about asking advice from Penn State football coach Joe Paterno about assistant coaches (via Political Wire).

Young Turks: Nutcase Senator Hatch to Obama “You’re not Jesus”.

The G.O.P. Primary Freak Show:

• Sam Seder: Anonymous exposes Ron Paul.
• Rick Santorum suffers from some Bad Lip Reading:
• ONN: GOP race now between Mitt and total voter apathy and other news of the week.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Newt hates freedom of religion.
• Actual Audio: Sarah Palin defends Newt (or is it a poetry slam?)
• Ed and Pap: The end of Newt?
• Newt would like to live on the moon.
• Ann Telnaes: Newt’s ideas are hard to digest.
• Thom: Did the Gingrich campaign commit election fraud?
• Alyona: Romney will ‘fix’ safety net by gutting it.
• Jon on Mitt’s lack of concern for the poor (via Political Wire).
• Young Turks: Romney doesn’t care about poor people.
• Mitt’s most out of touch moments.
• Jennifer Granholm: UAW president says Mitt Romney can’t win Michigan.
• Young Turks: Romney ‘misspoke’ on ‘very poor’ comments.
• Red State Update: Mitt hates old people and wins Florida anyway.
• Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Spotlight on Mitt
• Mitt commits ANOTHER unforced error:
• Jon: Mitt, Donald and the coalition of the wealthy.
• Thom: That’s not Punxatawney Phil…it’s…Trump!
• Mitt gets glitter bombed (and can’t sing) (via Crooks and Liars).

Sam Seder: Washington seat close to passing same-sex marriage bill.

Liberal Viewer: Michelle Malkin &Bill O’Reilly lie on Gitmo lawyers exposed.

Stephen: Tea Party demands to rewrite history.

Thom: The GOP all out assault on workers.

White House: West Wing Week.

Shuster with Michael Musto on a recent study showing that lower IQs lead to conservative views:

Sam Seder: In Alabama, God says “don’t raise Teacher pay”.

The Komen Kaper:

• Young Turks: Komen severs relationship with Planned Parenthood.
• Newsy: Funding pulled from Planned Parenthood for political reasons.
• Buzz 60: Uproar as Komen pulls plug on Planned Parenthood
• Young Turks: Planned Parenthood donations soar.
• Ann Telnaes: Komen v. Planned Parenthood.
• Young Turks take on anti-abortion activist.
• Shuster: The backlash.
• Young Turks: Komen reverses decision.
• Newsy: Komen restores Planned Parenthood grants.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Will voter ID laws make voting more secure—or more selective?.

Newsy: Jobless claims drop for 5th month in a row.

Young Turks: 243K jobs created in January.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Reading this post by Senator Paull Shin (h/t) on his vote against the marriage equality bill, this really bugged me:

My adopted family raised me as they raised their own children, with strong Christian values. To this day, I cherish those values and try to live my life in accordance with their teachings. Therefore my vote against passage of this bill was one that was deeply personal.

Senator Shin is free to find his values wherever he wants, of course. And if he lives his life according to those values, well great. But the job of state senator is to represent our secular, multi-religious, multicultural state and our secular, multi-religious, multicultural country. Those values should inspire legislation, not the values of any one faith.

The other bad thing about that argument (although he walks it back later in the piece) is that it implies that there’s only one way for Christians to vote. That Christians should unthinkingly all agree on public policy in 2012, in America, based on a book written thousands of years ago. That they should all agree with the most regressive version of Christianity not just in their personal lives but in public policy. As if the main Senate sponsor, and the governor who pushed it weren’t Catholics. As if most of the people who voted for it weren’t Christians.

If you want to make horrible arguments for a bad vote, go ahead. But don’t tell me Jesus made you do it.

Erica C. Barnett reports on a new study on gendered disparities in public transit. And while the study didn’t apply to Puget Sound transit orgs, Barnett looks at their conclusions and at Sound Transit, finding them lacking in at least one area.

What are the implications? The Atlantic suggests that if transit agencies take women’s needs into account, they will provide easier boarding and wider aisles (for women with strollers or heavy bags) and more transit service in care-related sites, like parks, daycares, and schools. Additionally, transit agencies could include more women on their boards, the Atlantic suggests. Although Sound Transit, the regional transit agency for the Puget Sound, is led by a woman, Joni Earl, its 16-member board is dominated by men, with just four female members. (It’s all-white, too).

Also, the King County Council Transportation, Economy and Environment Committee that deals with public transportation is 2/3 men (the same makeup as the entire council) and that the chair and vice chair are both men.

When Gov. Christine Gregoire signs same-sex marriage into law the week after next, Washington state will be catching up to that uber-liberal state known as Iowa.

So when they heard the news, the Des Moines chapter of Drinking Liberally couldn’t resist teasing us a bit at the same time they sent a congratulatory message:

– Reproductive Health and Rights Lobby Day

– Darryl noted the state senate passing the marriage equality bill. Andrew has more details including the roll call.

– And a couple bad bills fail to make it to the floor.

– In other states: Do not let the media silence fool you: Hoosiers are making noise.

– Republican Jesus supports Mitt Romney.

– Weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina) contend with a number of ant-like spiders that look similar enough to their favored food to avoid detection by the ant guards. They lurk around the ants’ trails, pretending to be ants and grabbing a meal when the opportunity arises.

Senate Bill 6239 that legalizes same-sex marriage, passed tonight.

The Senate was the big hurdle for this bill, pushed by Gov. Christine Gregoire as part of her final agenda as Governor.

The bill passed 28 to 21. That’s quite a shift from two weeks ago, when only 23 Senators publicly supported it.

Sen. Ed Murray, who has fought for many years to end discrimination against same-sex couples, will now get married to his long-time partner, Michael Shiosaki.

Congrats, guys!

I’d like to follow up on Darryl’s piece about Darcy Burner’s polling. Specifically going after the unelectable meme. That she’s “some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran.” Darryl does good work dispelling it.

Leaving aside the Kos thing, I think you have to say that the most important factor going forward in the first is whatever Democrat gets through is going to have to earn it. The district isn’t a gimmie for anyone; it’s rather large and neither party can hold a claim to it. So I think whoever works hardest and can present a compelling vision to the voters will win.

But here’s the interesting thing to me: All of that also applies to the newly created 10th district, and many of the people who are opposed to Darcy Burner because she lost a tough race don’t seem to have any problem with Denny Heck running again. Many of the same people criticizing Burner are calling the district centered around suburban-exurban Pierce and Thurston Counties the “Denny Heck District.”

Now, it’s probably a moderately Democratic district, and one Heck should be able to win if he works hard and presents the right message. Problem is, he’s already lost in a district like that, and unlike with Burner it wasn’t to an incumbent. To be clear, I think Heck can win the 10th and Burner or any Democrat can win the 1st. But I wonder why the narratives are so different between the two of them.

By “Romney family member,” I mean the Romeny’s former family dog, an Irish Setter named Seamus.

Seamus achieved fame and glory during the 2008 presidential campaign cycle after one of Romney’s sons told a treasured family story:

In June 2007 the Boston Globe reported that in 1983, current Republican presidential hopeful (and former Massachusetts governor) Mitt Romney had placed his Irish setter in a dog carrier on the roof of his station wagon for a 12-hour trip to his parents’ cottage on the Canadian shores of Lake Huron. He’d built a windshield for the carrier to make the ride more comfortable for the dog. He’d also made it clear to his five sons that bathroom breaks would be taken only during predetermined stops to gas up the car.

The dog spoiled this plan by letting loose with a bout of diarrhea during its rooftop sojourn, necessitating an unplanned gas station visit for the purpose of hosing down the pooch, its carrier, and the back of the car.

There are now two competing theories on the fate of Seamus. The orthodox theory is that Seamus was eventually given to Mitt’s sister:

The Romneys eventually dealt with Seamus’s apostasy, and nervous stomach, by fobbing him off on Mitt’s sister, Jane, who lived in California and was said to have space for the dog to roam freely, unfettered by straps, crates or station wagons.

And now we have a competing theory:

Mitt Romney may not have told the whole truth about the scandalous tale of his Irish Setter, Seamus, being strapped to the roof of his car during a 12-hour family road trip to Canada. According to a trusted Politicker tipster, two of Mr. Romney’s sons had an off-record conversation with reporters where they revealed the dog ran away when they reached their destination on that infamous journey in 1983.

That’s right…Seamus became a “draft” dodger by running away in Canada.

The Obama campaign uses the incident to draw a distinction between the two men.

The Darcy Burner campaign has released a second in-house poll for WA-1 (and accompanying memo). And it looks very good for Burner on the Democratic side.

Campaigns normally don’t release internal polls unless there is some advantage to doing so. So we’ll look at the positives, and then read between the lines for the rest.

The good new for Burner is that she leads the Democratic pack:

Among primary voters who vote for one of the Democratic candidates on the initial ballot, Darcy Burner currently leads the pack with a decisive lead. Burner leads with nearly half of the vote (45%), followed by Laura Ruderman (15%), Steve Hobbs (13%), Suzan DelBene (12%), Roger Goodman (10%), and Darshan Rauniyar (5%).

More good:

Moreover, Burner is well-regarded among primary election voters who pick a Democratic candidate in the initial ballot. More than half (54%) of these voters have a favorable opinion of Burner, while 9% have an unfavorable opinion. DelBene is less well known, with 21% of voters having a favorable impression of her. Seventeen percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Ruderman. A majority of these Democratic voters have no impression of Ruderman or DelBene, while most are familiar with Burner.

The findings are consistent with the previous internal poll released by the Burner campaign.

What these numbers tell us is that, contrary to certain media naysayer, Darcy is the front-runner among Democrats in this race.

These results debunk, what I’ll call, the Connelly meme, named after the Darcy Burner naysayer-in-chief, SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly. Joel has, of late, has made something of a specialization in portraying Burner as an outside interloper—as some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran. The Connelly meme is bullshit.

The new poll results bode well for Darcy Burner in a Democratic primary race.

Unfortunately, Washington state doesn’t have a Democratic primary. Rather, we have this top-two primary. And that brings me to what this poll doesn’t tell us.

Take a look at the poll methods:

These findings are based on 504 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely 2012 primary election voters in Washington’s new 1st Congressional District. Interviews were conducted from January 23-26, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 4.4%.

What we never learn is how many of the 504 interviewees chose to not select one of the Democratic candidates. There were two Republican candidates in the race when the poll was taken (one has since dropped out), yet we don’t see numbers for these candidates, or an “other” category if the pollster made a (dubious) decision to not name Republican candidates as well.

The absence of reporting on the Republican (or “other”) tally in a poll of “likely 2012 primary voters” is telling. It suggests to me that the “votes” for non-Democrats matched or exceeded those for the Democratic candidates. That is, the numbers don’t make Darcy look strong enough in a general election that the campaign was willing to release ’em.

The numbers support the idea that Darcy is the Democratic front-runner, but it leaves me feeling a little bit nervous about the prospects that any Democrat will be taking the district.

I look forward to seeing some independent polling in the race.

Florida handles its elections the way Seattle handles its snowstorms. They know that big ones happen every few years, but they never seem prepared for them. I’m still at the office, but will be leaving in the next hour for the Ale House where I plan to live blog with Darryl. I’ll also likely be getting updates from my old college roommate, Dan, a former Republican living in Miami who’s been complaining to me this week that he’s needed a Hazmat suit to open his mailbox.

This is an open thread…

[4:40] One other thing that Dan mentioned was that the Cuban community refers to Ron Paul as “El Loco”. El Loco seems to be getting about 7% of the votes counted so far.

[5:22] Finally at the Ale House only to find out that Darryl fucked up the Live blog plan. Jeez.

[5:26] No sound on the TV. It’s set to CNN, so it’s not necessary.

[5:31] Romney won this thing in a landslide, but Newt won among white evangelicals, once again demonstrating that morally repulsive infidelity can be forgiven by the religious right as long as you act like an entitled asshole whenever asked about it.

[5:34] Romney is speaking. I can’t hear it, but I’m guessing he’s firing people on his staff, just out of habit.

[5:37] In re: to Darryl. But I regret both votes equally! Consistency!

[5:52] Rick Santorum being interviewed in Las Vegas where he’s already preparing for his 4th place finish there.

[5:53] I swear to god, I’ve known Darryl for 8 years, but if he shaved his beard, I’d never recognize him.

[6:01] How Ron Paul could have a huge win in Virginia.

[6:07] Newt waddles to the podium. Every Democrat in the country quietly cheers him on.

[6:12] Yep

[6:18] For once, the most cartoonish thing happening in Orlando is not at Disney World.

[6:20] Newt just dominated the panhandle. If the rest of the south votes that way, there will be a lot of disappointed southerners when Mitt is nominated.

[6:22] Darryl is listening to NPR now on his giant headphones. I’m no longer in contention for the biggest geek in the bar. I concede.

[6:24] Carl just walked in. He’s rocking a good beard too, in about 10 years, it could look as good as Darryl’s.

[6:25] Carl: “Does this mean we’re not going to have a moon colony?”

[6:36] Ron Paul speaking in Nevada. That state could be interesting. Both Romney and Paul beat McCain there in 2008.

[6:46] Without sound, I have no idea what John King is doing. Is he predicting a Ron Paul win in Washington?

[6:49] Dan has surfaced in the comments. Hey man, this is for you.

[6:57] Dan explains why Mitt won and why one of the nation’s most notorious white collar criminals is now their governor.

[7:02] Romney did really well with Latino voters. Unfortunately for him, Florida is the only state where Latinos vote for Republicans.

[7:04] N in Seattle is here. All we need is Goldy for the full HA.

[7:05] Will Kelley-Kamp is now here too. Sweet. Live-blogging is likely to slow to a crawl here…

[7:11] Dammit Darryl!! Fix this!

[7:18] I want to send Will to Iran. He needs $3,000. Make your pledges now!

[7:31] Just chatting with Will about how insane it is that Ralph Reed still goes on TV as a representative of the religious right. If Jesus were alive today, I doubt he’d be able to turn the other cheek on that crook.

[7:47] That’s it for me. Will is doing stand-up on Monday nights at Seattle Comedy Underground. It’s $5 for two hours of comedy. Come check him out and say you’re there to see Will Kelley.