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Sub-SuperTuesday Liveblogging

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 5:02 pm

Why the hell not? I mean, soon we won’t have Newt or Santorum to kick the shit out of anymore.

Newt is already out of the picture. But Lil’ Ricky Santorum keeps on Mitt like a bad case of Giardia. Cesspool ensues.

The polls close in Wisconsin, D.C. and Maryland at 5:00 PM PDT. That’s now!

5:04: It’s all tied up in all three states, with 0% reporting…

5:06: I got a call this afternoon from my favorite neice, Maria Elaine Valdez Holman. “Guess what, uncle Darryl, I voted today,” she said with some excitement. My guess is that most 18 year-olds don’t get quite so excited about voting, but Maria has become quite passionate about politics. She is really looking forward to voting Gov. Scott Walker’s ass out of office. Needless to say, she got her voting issues resolved, but not without some considerable effort, thanks to Walker.

5:32: With less than 1% reporting, we have some results for Maryland:

  • Romney, 53.2%
  • Santorum, 26.6%
  • Gingrich, 10.4%
  • Paul, 8.3%

5:41: With 1% reporting in Maryland, CNN boldly calls it for the Mittster.

5:42: We just got a teevee turned to CNN at the Ale House (that can be hard to do during Basketball season, and there is a Women’s final on tonight). Anyway, it seems I was misunderinformed…polls in Wisconsin haven’t closed yet. I believe they close at 6:00 PM PDT.

6:00: Polls are closing in Wisconsin. Wolf Blitzer puts his “intensity” face on.

CNN projection based on exit polls:

  • Romney, 43%
  • Santorum, 35%
  • Gingrich, 11%
  • Paul, 6%

6:02: NPR points out that turn-out may be much lower than expected in Wisconsin. That’s bad news for Scott Walker. The G.O.P. voters are simply not all that engaged.

6:06: CNN projects that Mitt Romney wins in D.C. What took them so long…I mean, Santorum didn’t even make the ballot. But I’m grateful we have that settled.

6:07: Dear CNN…When you have a text insert saying, “Santorum to speak soon” up for 45 minutes, you ought to be asking yourself…”Are we being played by the Santorum campaign?”

6:09: CNN has Ari Fleischer on the teevee. Without sound, I have no idea what he is saying. But I’m guessing he is lying–after all, his lips are moving.

6:14: Finally…after almost an hour of pushing it…Santorum is speaking. All smiles and waiving signs. This looser is on fucking Mars! Oh…wait. He’s giving the speech from Mars, PA.

6:17: CNN banner: “Breaking News: Awaiting Wisconsin Results”. That’s not fucking breaking news. We have been awaiting these results for our entire fucking life!
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 4:02 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight’s primaries are in Wisconsin, Maryland, and DC.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up before then to catch the earliest election returns.

Naturally, we’ll be doing a bit of live blogging of the results.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter, and the Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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Headline of the day

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 3:33 pm

US Supreme Court Affirms Warrantless Ass Searches

Who else…but Goldy.

Goldy goes on to explain that Washington has laws that require a warrant for incarceratory cavity probes.

The gist of the Supreme Court ruling is that jailers have the right to invasive searches without warrants because of the heightened security environment of a jail or prison.

Yet…somehow, lacking warrantless ass searches, Washington state jails and prisons manage to not spiral into utter chaos.

Maybe it’s the climate.

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Open Thread 4/3

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 7:58 am

– Seattle’s Road Map to a Climate-Friendly Future

– It’s worth noting that the quickest way to enact restrictions on walking around while carrying a gun is probably for the “wrong” kinds of people to start carrying firearms, causing a freakout among the people who wrote the laws in the first place.

– Call me a skeptic, but I think corporate compassion is mostly PR.

– Pictures of the U-Link breakthrough.

– You, gentle Times reader, should your accept your trite generalizations about female sexuality from noone less than a Latin-spouting Harvardian.

– Our awesome banking system.

– Health care glossary.

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Poll Analysis: Inslee 38%, McKenna 34%

by Darryl — Monday, 4/2/12, 8:33 pm

A new Grove Insight poll of the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and Washington state AG Rob McKenna (R) shows Inslee with a +2% lead over McKenna. The poll surveyed 500 likely Washington voters (M.O.E. 4.4%) from the 26th to 28th of March.

Before doing my usual Monte Carlo analysis of the results, I want to point out that with this poll and the previous Grove Insight poll, I debated whether or not to analyze the results. One of my rules for polls is to, “ignore polls released by party organizations or candidates.” The issue is that campaigns and party organizations commission polls all the time, but we rarely get to see the polling results. When they are released, there is a strategic reason. Therefore, including such polls can lead to a biased overall interpretation, even if the polls themselves are completely honest and accurate.

Both of the Grove Insight polls are, apparently, commissioned by the SEIU. Even though SEIU isn’t part of the campaign or the Democratic party, SEIU has recently endorsed Inslee and they obviously share elements of their politics. I really don’t know if Grove Insight would have released these results if they had been bad for Inslee. It is a close call, but I opted to go with publishing an analysis.

Of the 500 respondents, there were only 360 who had a preference for either Inslee or McKenna, so the effective margin of error is actually bigger than the 4.4% given in the release. A Monte Carlo analysis that held a million simulated elections gave Inslee a win 762,761 times and McKenna a win 225,707 times.

The analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Inslee would have a 77.2% probability of beating McKenna. Note that by statistical conventions we would call this a tie because the winning percentage doesn’t exceed 95%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes resulting from the analysis:

GroveInsightMarch

This makes three consecutive polls that contradict the narrative that McKenna is the front-runner:

InsleeMcKennaApril2

Although I want input from another poll or two, it is beginning to look like this race is flipping—gone from McKenna having a hefty lead, to a tie. If correct, it’s pretty remarkable is how fast things have turned around….

[The most recent analysis in this race can be found here.]

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Another Isolated Incident, I’m Sure

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 4/2/12, 6:09 pm

Another act (h/t) that again has nothing to do with any other incident like it or the noxious political environment the GOP is pushing. Just another nut. No connective tissue. It’s all completely senseless and unpredictable.

Grand Chute police are investigating an explosive device that blew up at Planned Parenthood.

It happened about 7:40 p.m. Sunday at the Planned Parenthood office at 3800 North Gillett Street.

Authorities say a plastic water bottle filled with an accelerant caused the blast and fire, which quickly extinguished itself by the time firefighters arrived.

Fortunately nobody was hurt, and it doesn’t seem to have done much damage. Still, it could have been much worse. And I feel like a broken record here, but while of course the person who did this is responsible for their actions, the anti-choice people should recognize their contribution to this, especially the ones using violent, eliminationist rhetoric.

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Open Thread 4/2

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 4/2/12, 7:54 am

– Trayvon-like Dudes

What the hell is up with white hipster Jesus, Newsweek?

– I don’t buy the idea that a large group of black bodies = crime, but I know a lot of people who trumpet on & on about the joys of gentrification do.

– I think no one really was identifying him with white conservatives until white conservatives adopted Zimmerman as their Mumia Abu-Jamal.

– Urban agriculture discussion in Olympia.

– Waspzilla

– Too far

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Counter-Narratives

by Lee — Sunday, 4/1/12, 10:40 pm

For as long as the Trayvon Martin story has been in the news, the mindset of those feverishly trying to defend George Zimmerman has been fascinating to me. And for a while, I had trouble coming up with a parallel. But earlier this week, I think I managed to come up with what it reminds me of. It reminds me of how so many folks clung to a belief that OJ Simpson was totally innocent of the murders of his ex-wife and her boyfriend, no matter how much evidence began piling up against it.

Most readers of this blog aren’t under any illusions as to what happened that night in Sanford. George Zimmerman, a ridiculously overzealous “block watchman” who’d called 9-1-1 dozens of times, sees Martin walking back from the local 7-11 and finds him suspicious. What happens next is abundantly clear from both Zimmerman’s 9-1-1 call to police and Martin’s brief conversation with a friend back home. Zimmerman, who’s armed with a firearm, confronts Martin. Martin, likely already in fear for his life, tries to defend himself. But he’s armed with nothing but candy and iced tea – and as a result, Zimmerman is able to shoot him dead.

The common thread between both the OJ dead-enders and the crackpots bending over backwards to absolve Zimmerman of any blame is a strong desire to believe the counter-narrative. With the OJ case, so many people wanted to believe that this was about crooked law enforcement and not the murder of two innocent people. And with the Trayvon Martin case, many people want to believe that this is about criminality in the black community and not the senseless murder of an innocent teen. But the reality with both cases is that neither narrative is relevant. The only thing that really matters is that innocent people were killed and the families involved have the right to demand justice.

It’s an unspeakable outrage that George Zimmerman hasn’t been arrested yet. And sadly, I worry that even if he does get arrested, not enough was done by the police to collect enough evidence to convict him. When OJ was acquitted, I was in the student union building in Ann Arbor watching it on TV. Dozens of African-American students celebrated in what I found to be a somewhat disturbing display. And yet, I’m almost bracing myself for the same thing should George Zimmerman stand trial and beat that murder charge. Those who believe that killing the innocent is acceptable within the shadow of some other perceived injustice will celebrate. And America will die a little bit again.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 4/1/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by Budget Wonk. It was the Ozar Hatorah school in Toulouse, France where a gunman killed three children and a teacher last month.

Here’s this week’s contest, which is a random location somewhere in the world, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 4/1/12, 7:00 am

Proverbs 31:6-7
Let beer be for those who are perishing,
wine for those who are in anguish!
Let them drink and forget their poverty
and remember their misery no more.

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 3/30/12, 11:58 pm

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Texas verse of “Vote Republican”.

Medicare, Affordable Care, and Health Care:

  • Actual audio: Mitt versus health care.
  • Stephen on the death of Obamacare.
  • Newsy: Do oral arguments matter?
  • Thom: SCOTUS, POTUS and budget for all.
  • Ed and Pap: The GOP plan…if you get sick, you are going to die!
  • Ann Telnaes: The wrong health care debate.
  • Jon on SCOTUS and Obamacare.
  • Mitt and Paul Ryan:
  • Mark Fiore: Shoot-em-up Charlie discovers ALEC.
  • Ann Telnaes: The best health care money can buy
  • Darcy Burner on Medicare.
  • Pap: Republicans misrepresent basics of Affordable Care Act.

Jennifer Granholm: Outrage over the war on women is deafening.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen. Rand Paul shills for Big Oil.

V.P. Biden says “Thank you, Dr. Pepper” to Dr. Paper.

Stephen on Obama’s secret plot to not take away your guns.

The G.O.P. CrazyFest:

  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Romney claims ‘Russia is #1 geo-political foe’ ?!
  • Maddow: Romney and Santorum oblivious in Wisconsin.
  • Mitt Romeny: Wrong for women.
  • Thom: Does Santorum have pink balls?
  • Young Turks: Santorum hates pink balls.
  • Stephen has some stand-up material for Mitt.
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Abortion and devils and Santorum, oh my!
  • Crazy Alert: Romney’s cars are Movin’ On Up.
  • Mitt: Not ready to lead.
  • Sam Seder: Did Santorum almost call Obama the N-word?
  • Maddow: Mitt and taxes and foreign policy weaknesses.
  • Big Oil and Mitt Romney.
  • Young Turks: Did Santorum almost call Obama the N-word?
  • Jim Norton on Rick Santorum et al.
  • Jon: Santorum and Romney versus the media.
  • Young Turks: A tribute to Newt Gingrich

Greenman: What we knew about global warming in 1982.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week:

Jon: Obama’s hot mic gaffe.

Sam Seder: It isn’t just phone hacking for Newscorp anymore.

Death Sentence for Trayvon:

  • Sam Seder: The demonetization of Trayvon Martin.
  • Jasiri X: A Song for Trayvon (h/t Howie in Seattle).
  • Young Turks: The Trayvon Martin smear campaign.
  • Brett: Hoodies and hairpieces.
  • Red State Update: George Zimmerman’s Other 911 Calls:
  • Sam Seder: Freedom unless you are wearing a Hoodie.
  • Ed and Pap: Tea Party rushes to defend Trayvon Martin killer.
  • Young Turks: George Zimmerman video analysis.
  • Jon on the Media’s coverage of Trayvon Martin’s death
  • Young Turks: A Hoodie for Trayvon Martin Gets Rep. Rush kicked out.
  • Rep Bobby Rush removed from House floor for wearing hoodie (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Roy Zimmerman: Utah verse of “Vote Republican”.

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Obama: Repeal subsidies for oil companies.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’ biased reporting on CA prisons.

Sam Seder: Dick Cheney has a heart.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Preach!

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 3/30/12, 8:57 pm

I was looking around editorial pages for something to make fun of, and instead I found this great opinion piece in the Yakima Herrald-Republic.

My faith is important to me. And I believe that religious faith is a fundamental human right that government should not restrict. My faith may be different from my evangelist neighbor’s in that I believe that two consenting adults who love each other should be allowed to be married no matter what their gender mix is, and I believe that more ethically responsible decisions can be made by women who have access to contraception and abortion services. So no, I don’t feel that my faith, anyway, is under attack.

But I do feel that something is amiss. Our Constitution, thankfully, says that government shall not restrict the free exercise of religion; but I don’t see in any of these examples the government doing that. The government is not requiring people to marry someone of the same gender, or mandating that people take birth control. I understand that filling a “Plan B” prescription may be counter to someone’s religious values, but that is not the same as exercising one’s religion. The Catholic Church is not being asked to actually take birth control pills; they are only being asked to provide reasonable coverage for health benefits like all other employers, and pharmacists are being asked to simply do their jobs. These examples have nothing to do with religious practice.

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Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 3/30/12, 7:11 pm

Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR Talk Business-Hendrix College 26-Mar 26-Mar 759 3.6 33.0 56.5 R+23.5
CT Quinnipiac 14-Mar 19-Mar 1622 2.4 53 37 O+16
FL Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1228 2.8 49 42 O+7
MA PPP 16-Mar 18-Mar 936 3.2 58 35 O+23
NE PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 1028 3.1 39 51 R+12
NE1 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 432 — 41 49 R+8
NE2 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 277 — 45 46 R+1
NE3 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 319 — 31 57 R+26
NH ARG 15-Mar 18-Mar 557 4.2 48 41 O+7
OH Rasmussen 26-Mar 26-Mar 500 4.5 48 40 O+8
OH Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1246 2.8 47 41 O+6
OR SurveyUSA 14-Mar 19-Mar 1615 2.5 49.8 38.8 O+11.0
PA Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1232 2.8 45 42 O+3
VA PPP 20-Mar 20-Mar 500 4.5 51 42 O+9
WI Rasmussen 27-Mar 27-Mar 500 4.5 52 41 O+11
WI Marist 26-Mar 27-Mar 1400 2.6 52 35 O+17
WI Marquette Law School 22-Mar 25-Mar 707 — 48.2 43.2 O+4.9

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Free Circulator?

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 3/30/12, 8:15 am

Yesterday I attended an open house for several transit agencies to discuss the elimination of the free ride area in September. It was mostly what you know already if you’re paying attention. Starting September 29, every route will be pay as you enter, and what’s now the free ride area will just be part of the Seattle zones for Metro and ST.

The one thing that I hadn’t realized (and I didn’t notice until I was reviewing one of the handouts on the way home, so I didn’t get to ask anyone about it) was that they are considering ways to help poor people get around. These include “increase the number of human service tickets provided to the agencies” and to “operate a free circulator.”

I wish I had a chance to ask someone about it, but the two questions that come to mind are who would operate it and how do they keep it from becoming a rolling homeless shelter? I assume that the question of who operates it hasn’t been worked out since the entire idea seems to still be up in the air. As for the homeless people: of course there should be services for them, but the bus isn’t that.

I’d like a circulator through the urban core (and both ways if it’s not just up and down the same street), free or not. But I’m not sure free is the better way to go.

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Fairness

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 3/29/12, 7:49 pm

You know, I hate to say it, but the trolls are right. This blog isn’t fair to conservatives. We exclude their voices and we don’t take them seriously. That’s why I’m glad to see we’ve added Rob McKenna’s Twitter feed to the side bar. Sure he’s a Republican who presumably nobody writing on this blog will vote for, but it’s important to have his voice.

We can dramatically increase state spending on K-12 education by dramatically decreasing spending on teachers. It’s #McKennaMath

I endorse Michael Bumgardener for US Senate! Watch out, Miss. Cantwell!

I’ve always felt it inappropriate for elected officials to endorse in pres. primaries. Except for 2008, 2004, & 2000. That was different.

So welcome aboard Rob.

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  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/23/25
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  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/19/25
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