– A proper (or as proper as I do) write-up will come later today, but I didn’t make delegate at the 7th district convention. These people did.
– The NAACP endorses marriage equality.
– It’s a bit of a clusterfuck, but I’m basically fine with the candidates running in both first districts.
– Lies about Elizabeth Warren are going to come in fast the rest of the campaign.
Last week’s contest was won by Julia (some NSFW content at that link). It was the Century City, CA office tower used in the movie “Die Hard”. Thanks to YLB for finding the link.
This week’s contest is a location somewhere in Washington state, good luck!
Filing week, when candidates who may have been running for office for a year or more make their intentions official, is always of great interest to the political class. Back when they actually had to go to Olympia to file in person, candidates often played the waiting-game, trying to cut as close as possible to the deadline before submitting their paperwork. Inevitably, that strategy backfired every once in a while … a flat tire, a speeding ticket, an accident.
These days, filing happens on the internet, removing that sort of fun from the process. But now that Washington uses the (utterly ridiculous, IMHO … but that’s for another day) Top Two primary system, there’s a new source of amusement available to observers:
(Prefers ___________________ Party)
Sure, most of the time that blank space is filled by something conventional — Republican or Democratic. Not always, however, and I always like to review the atypical ones. For instance, three Congressional candidates, two candidates for Governor, an Insurance Commissioner aspirant, and one apiece for State Senate and State House of Representatives prefer the Independent Party. Which doesn’t really exist. Why those candidates didn’t use the (States No Party Preference) option, as 13 others did, escapes me. Surely that’s what they actually mean to say.
As always, a few supposedly-Democratic candidates omit the ic, telling us they prefer the Democrat Party. That irksome misconstruction is particularly favored by Republicans; Bob Dole was a frequent ic-dropper. Note to WA-01 special election candidate Ruth Morrison, 26th District House candidate Stephen Greer, 42nd LD House candidate Matthew Krogh, and 49th District House candidate Sharon Wylie — if you want us to believe you’re really Democrats, get Sam Reed to add the ic to your preferred label. Linda Wright (39th LD House) goes them one better. In addition to the dropped syllable, she eschews the capital D; she Prefers democrat Party.
And then there’s Brad Owen. Is it any surprise that this guy, who’s running for his fifth term of sullying the office of Lieutenant Governor, Prefers Democrat Party? Look up “DINO” in the dictionary, and you’ll find a picture of Brad Owen (or maybe his pal Tim Sheldon). That no actual Democrat ever tries to wrest the office (and, more importantly, the Senate gavel) from him astonishes me.
Quite a few candidates described themselves with riffs on the names, or nicknames, of the major parties. Thus, we find preference (with minor variations) for:
Members of several real political parties filed to run for office in 2012. Or maybe they aren’t party members … after all, a candidate can write anything on that blank line, as long as it’s short enough and not profane. The Green candidate, Howard A. Pellett for the House in the 40th District, is probably the real thing. Karen Murray, Constitution Party candidate for Secretary of State, is definitely for real; she’s their Vice Chairman/Communications Director. So too is Progressive Party chair Linde Knighton, running for the open 36th District House seat. I’m not so sure the Reform Party wants to take the blame credit for crazed ex-felon and US Senate candidate Will Baker, but then again he’s called himself Reform Party before.
Spiraling ever farther away from serious politics, we come to a bunch of so-called candidates with one-off, semi-random “party” preferences. Get a load of these:
I’ve saved the best for last. Yes, our favorite perennial candidates are back for still another round!
Still utilizing Washington state elections as advertising for his business (the $1740 filing fee buys him millions of views in the primary’s voters’ guide every two years, as well as free TV time on TVW), Mike The Mover is running for the US Senate this time. Interestingly, he’s calling himself a Republican in this election. In previous years, he’s generally said he was a Democrat.
Goodspaceguy has set his sights a bit lower than usual in 2012, running for the WA-07 Congressional seat rather than a statewide office. Is the grind of all that campaigning wearing him down? His choice of a party affiliation demonstrates imagination, at the very least. What else would you expect from a man who has legally changed his name to Goodspaceguy? He Prefers Employmentwealth Party.
And last but not least, what would we do without Stan Lippman? Who knew that the Redistricting Commission extended the borders of the 46th Legislative District to the north and northeast in order to bring Stan back into a Seattle-based LD?! He’s one of the cast of thousands running for that open House seat in the 46th. The other candidates are four Democrats and one Republican, whereas Stan wants to have it all. He Prefers Democratic-Repub Party.
One more item … as I write this, the Secretary of State’s list of candidates who have filed has some rather glaring errors. According to the SoS, Zack Hudgins isn’t running for re-election to the House in the 11th District and Sylvester Cann didn’t file to run against Gerry Pollet for the House in the 46th. King County Elections doesn’t make either of those mistakes. The SoS also seems to say that Senator Joe Zarelli’s surprise retirement leaves a Democrat running unopposed for that blood-red Republican seat. Goldy tells me that the SoS list isn’t official yet, which is made abundantly clear by those mistakes. Check back with them on Tuesday.
Deuteronomy 23:18
Thou shalt not bring the hire of a whore, or the price of a dog, into the house of the Lord thy God for any vow: for even both these are abomination unto the Lord thy God.
Discuss.
Thom: Can Romney win by lying?
Obama on protecting a woman’s right to choose.
Newsy: Catholic church is investigating girl scouts.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Mitt Romney: Hot problems:
Thom: The right’s obsession with female body parts (i.e. the Republican War on Women™).
Jen: Shadowy organizations work to suppress the vote.
Daily Show on Space.
Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) team up to do comedy.
Stephanie Cutter: Get the facts on Karl Rove’s BS.
Hey, good luck getting laid, Wisconsin State Senator Glenn Grothman.
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News fucks up on “liberal intolerance”.
Romney economics and the Bankruptcy and bailouts at GST Steel.
ONN: Republicans stalling Obama’s agenda by speaking & moving in slow motion.
Daily Show: Energy.
The Bane of Romney’s existence.
The Partisans: ZOMBIE AYN RAND:
Jen with Reich: The odd case of Romney praising Clinton.
Obama: One item on the #CongressToDoList.
Mitt Romney: “I stand by what I said, whatever it was.”
Gay Politics:
Obama’s accomplishments on Higher education.
Newsy: Minority births outnumber white births for first time in history.
The GOP primary candidate performances embodied as butt plugs:
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Ann Telnaes: Firing up Romney.
Sam Seder: Someone gives Teh Birfers a bone.
ONN: Alabama hosts first desegregated mass suicide.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O’s “Income inequality is bull”..
Ed and Pap: Obama campaign finally gets tough on Romney.
The Wright Stuff:
Maddow Show: Ugly echoes of 2008 encroach on Romney message.
Young Turks: ‘Professor Cenk’ breaks down Bain Capital’s buyout of GST.
The Daily Show on mobile devices.
Sam Seder: Mitt will “stand by” what he said.
Thom: Why Common Cause is suing the U.S. Senate.
Jonathan Mann: Mitt Romney’s Mirthless Laugh:
Actual Audio: Mitt Romney on his high school prank.
Sam Seder: DOJ says it is your Constitutional right to video tape the police.
Pap: Republicans are the losers in the War on Terror.
Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
Maddow Show: Improving economy undermining Romney’s message.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
The Post Office should be run more like a business than a lot of government agencies. But it still has a need to serve everyone in a way business never would. The Tacoma News Tribune disagrees about any of that public service crap.
The world changes. Heaven forbid that the U.S. Postal Service should change with it.
You can go on the Internet and print stamps right now. You can then go over and schedule a pickup. Just like when Franklin made it! If only they would advance with the times.
The USPS is supposed to operate like a business – which includes adapting to the real world – but the U.S. Senate has again made certain that it operate as a vehicle for patronage and political pandering. It has just pressured the organization into abandoning an emergency-cost cutting plan to close hundreds of money-losing post offices and mail-sorting centers nationwide, including several offices in Pierce County and the processing center on Pine Street in Tacoma.
What business funds its pension obligations 75 years into the future? But, no, the post office doesn’t have to be run just like a business. If they were, they’d probably try to stop FedEx and UPS from using zip codes because they’re propriety. Stamps would probably be a significant amount more. And the Postmaster general would be paid in the 7 or 8 figures. The Post Office is a public good that’s very different from a business. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t hard choices: there are. It just means that the calculus is different than if it were a private business.
Result: The postal unions and the nation’s remaining snail mail fans are happy. And the Postal Service – which has been losing $25 million a DAY – will keep on running immense losses unless Congress permits it to restructure itself for the 21st century.
And a result of the bad economy. Businesses are shipping less to fewer locations. The Internet exists so people aren’t sending as much mail (although I still get plenty of mail, including junk mail and legit correspondence). I doubt other shipping interests are doing well either, but they don’t work in the public interest.
On hold, too, is the USPS plan to end Saturday mail delivery – another fossil from the age when snail mail was the only game in town. Ending that tradition would have saved the system – and ultimately the taxpayers – royal sums of money. It would also have antagonized the people who don’t the status quo to change, ever.
Fair enough, but there are real consequences if the post office doesn’t run on Saturdays. Also, does whoever wrote this think the taxpayers are on the hook for the Post Office? Because, that’s not how it works:
In 1982, U.S. postage stamps became “postal products,” rather than a form of taxation. Since then, The bulk of the cost of operating the postal system has been paid for by customers through the sale of “postal products” and services rather than taxes.
Each class of mail is also expected to cover its share of the costs, a requirement that causes the percentage rate adjustments to vary in different classes of mail, according the costs associated with the processing and delivery characteristics of each class.
So I guess the good news is that the Post Office is already run more like a business than this article calling for it to be run like a business thinks. Anyway, I’m getting bored, but I’ll give you a terrible metaphor.
Communities defend their post offices like Rottweilers, and they terrify members of Congress who otherwise wouldn’t spend a penny bailing out an archaic mail system.
Rottweilers are well known for defending post offices and terrifying members of Congress.
It’s been a long time since I done these analyses—just over a month. I quit doing them after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee. I pointed out that:
The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).
Since Pres. Obama was beating Romney in 100% of the simulated elections, with an average electoral vote total of 347 to 191, it seemed silly to keep doing these analyses until the race looked a bit more “post-primary.”
Since that last analysis, 50 new polls have come out, covering 26 different states. (Still no new S.C. poll…sorry.) I guess it’s time to see how Obama and Romney stack up.
First, I should mention that the National polls make the race appear to be very close. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Obama leading Romney by +1.7%. The problem is, the national polls reflect the national vote. And as we remember all too well from 2000, the national vote does not always go the way of the Electoral College.
That is why I do these analyses. I collect only the state head-to-head polls and use them to infer the winner of the Electoral College. So, with an (apparently) close popular vote, how does the election look?
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,890 times and Romney wins 110 times (and we even give him the 12 ties). Obama receives (on average) 333 to Romney’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.9% probability to Romney’s 0.1% probability.
Huh…the “post-primary” election has hardly changed.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.9% probability of winning | 0.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 333 electoral votes | Mean of 205 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Congratulations on finding a typo from the middle of George Herbert Walker’s administration. I’m sure this this typo, that if it was human would be able to vote, stacks up against the state of Hawaii saying he was born in that state, and showing his records. It stacks up against the birth announcements and the recollections of people who were there. I’m sure in your mind this is incontrovertible proof that Obama was born in Kenya.
But here’s the thing: even if he was born in Kenya*, he’s still a natural born citizen. You see, because of the 14th amendment, everyone born in the United States is an American citizen. That is not the only way you are a citizen at birth though — if it were, nobody would have been a natural born citizen until after the Civil War. Having an American mother who still holds her passport is fine. Unless your next step is to prove that his mother wasn’t an American**, this whole thing is moot.
XXOO,
Carl Ballard
Thanks to everyone who sent me well-wishes last month. Baby Ava is doing great and despite being incredibly busy, I’m enjoying every second of it. Here are a few items on my mind these days:
– I just finished reading Michelle Alexander’s “The New Jim Crow“, an incredibly well-researched and well-argued book that explains how the war on drugs has created a new form of racial segregation very similar to the original Jim Crow laws of the south. The racial separation in the drug war comes from having much higher levels of drug law enforcement in black communities along with differences in prosecutorial discretion and the inability of many black drug defendant to adequately defend themselves from even totally bogus charges. The end result is a mass incarceration crisis with hundreds of thousands of black Americans saddled with felony convictions for the kinds of small-time drug violations that whites are almost never charged with.
I had this in mind as I heard the news today that THC was found in Trayvon Martin’s system after he was murdered. For a 17-year-old to have THC in his system is far from unusual, about a quarter of all teenagers have used pot in the past month. But because Martin was a young black man using marijuana, the likelihood of him being saddled with a felony for making that choice is significantly higher than it is for a white teenager. And once you’re saddled with that felony, finding employment, housing, and education becomes nearly impossible for the rest of your life. As Alexander points out in her book, people in that situation have all the doors of opportunity closed on them and usually fall into a criminal lifestyle and return to prison. The reality that her book should make clear is that even if George Zimmerman hadn’t ended Trayvon Martin’s life that night, there’s a good likelihood the war on drugs would’ve done it a short time later.
– I don’t think the lawsuit against the liquor privatization initiative has much of a chance of succeeding, but if it did, it would be really bad news for I-502, which also appears to do the “two separate things” that the liquor privatization initiative does. And for good measure, I-502 does a third thing, establish new DUI per se limits for marijuana. But again, I don’t expect this lawsuit to be successful. And as for the DUI issue, the Colorado legislature once again failed to pass a bill that would establish a 5ng/ml limit because of concerns over its lack of scientific backing.
– Scott Morgan has been wondering whether or not Romney would be worse for medical marijuana than Obama has been. As bad as Obama has been (and he’s been terrible), I could certainly envision Romney being worse. Particularly when it comes to U.S. Attorney appointments. Jenny Durkan hasn’t been as aggressive as some of Obama’s other USA’s in going after state-sanctioned medical marijuana distribution. Under Romney, it’s possible we could find someone far less progressive in that post. But it’s also possible he’d tap a progressive Republican in the Dan Satterberg mold. For those of us who actually want the DOJ to respect state marijuana laws, Gary Johnson is likely our only hope.
Howie has a great clip of Joe Biden. You should go over there and take a look at it. But I’m not sure the phrase “goes nuclear” that MEDIAite (where he got it from) describes it is really an accurate description. I mean he says the wealthy “don’t get it,” but “are not bad.” It seems to me that our discourse is broken if you’re wrong, but you’re still a good person is considered going nuclear.
The Congressional District conventions are this Sunday. If you’re a delegate, and don’t know where yours is, check your email or your mailbox, because I suspect someone is trying to find you and asking you to support them. Or you could check here. Anyway, I’m going to try to get in, and since people are calling me (hi) I thought I’d share the draft of it here. I obviously need to flesh it out a bit.
Hi, I’m running for delegate to the national convention. I’ve been involved in Democratic politics since I can remember. It seems there were always mailers being stuffed or precincts being walked when I was growing up.
Since I could vote, I supported Bill Bradley, Wes Clark, Hillary Clinton, and now Barack Obama in precinct caucuses. This is my first Congressional District convention.
In January 2004, before most people had heard of blogs, I started one, pseudonymously as Carl Ballard, called The Washington State Political Report. That lasted for several years, and now I write for Horse’s Ass, one of the largest liberal blogs in the state. If I’m at the convention, I’ll write up the experience. I’ll be honest, if you vote for me, I’ll probably swear the most while writing about the convention of any delegate.
When I started trying to be a delegate, I was hoping to get to the convention to push a marriage equality plank in the platform. It looked like that would be a real fight, but fortunately, it got a lot easier since Obama now supports marriage equality. But I’m still hoping to do what I can to make the platform as liberal as possible.
Thank you for your consideration.
– I know Reichert is safe, but the 8th Congressional District’s right turn has prompted a challenge from the right.
– Dennis Kucinich won’t run for Congress, so now people covering the 1st district will have to cover the actual candidates in the race.
– Americans Elect isn’t working out so well.
– Maybe after his book on economic growth, George W. Bush can write a book about not going to war in Iraq.
I know this has been a bad week for Executive Constantine with the media. And every week is a bad week for Mayor McGinn with the media. But does anyone think the city and the county would be getting this good of a deal on the potential NBA/NHL arena if their predecessors were still in office?
Honestly, Ron Sims is as responsible as anyone for the bad deals we got on Safeco and Seahawks Stadium* and Greg Nickles attempts to keep the Sonics were perfectly willing to overspend public money. Of course it helps to have a willing, honest partner, and nothing has actually finished yet. We’re also in a different era where the appetite for public spending in this economy is less than it was a decade ago. Still, the elected officials are deserve a lot of credit for not giving away a lot of public money and still moving forward.
In most business, when a company loses $2 Billion as part of its core business model, we usually let the market take care of things. Maybe have regulators look into it if the loss was caused by deceptive practices. But generally speaking, the market effects of their decision are a good enough punishment for whatever business. If a company loses $2 Billion and has to go in front of Congress or regulators, the worst part is generally the loss of money.
But banks are different for a few reasons. First, their role in the economy is different than other companies. The financing they provide is not the same as what most companies do. So they should be treated differently.
But even if you don’t buy that, surely, given that they are covered by the FDIC and have been given a fuckton of free money as an industry means that the banks have a different responsibilities to the general good than a manufacturing firm or a tech startup (that I think also have some responsibility, but not as much). As long as banks have the taxpayers funneling money to them, and acting as a backstop, they should act as models of responsibility.
But they haven’t been responsible. JPMorgan Chase isn’t even bothering to make original fuckups.
So, a few heads should roll. I still don’t understand why no CEO’s lost their jobs. We should also make sure the regulations are as tight as possible. Or at the very least, we could stop giving free money to the people who will just gamble it away.
Please join us tonight for another evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight we’ll go out of our way to ignore the Oregon primary, given that the presidential primaries are settled and there isn’t even a Senate or gubernatorial race happening. But there is plenty of local, regional and national politics to keep us engaged for the evening.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.
Notice: Transpartisan Alliance Monthly Salon for May is “Earth’s Natural Resources: Power Down, Power Up, Power Over or Power With?” It’s this Wednesday, May 16, 6:30-9:30 PM in the Conference Room, Intiman Theater, Seattle Center. Panelists are Derik Andreoli-Energy Transitions Northwest (ETNW), David Wright-BCRA Design/Co-Founder-Sustainable Ballard, Rick Forschler-SeaTac City Council, and Joe Tomlinson-Physicist/Independent Researcher.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.
Next Monday there are meetings of the Olympia, Yakima, and Shelton chapters.
With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!