HorsesAss.Org

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
11.8% probability of a majority	88.2% probability of a majority
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

An analysis of state head-to-head polls in Senate races suggests that Republicans would most likely control the Senate if the election was to be held today. Democrats have made small improvements since my previous analysis in July.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1239 times, there were 10566 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88195 times. Democrats have a 11.8% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 88.2% probability of controlling the Senate. This is only up slightly from the previous analysis. Where Democrats have gained is in the number of expected seats, going from 48.2 (on average) to 48.5. The median number of seats remains at 48.

A few states warrant comment.

The Arizona race has gone in Sen. John McCain’s (R) favor. He was at a 76% chance in July; now he is nearly at 100%. That said, the polling show great variability, so Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick may not be down for the count just yet.

Nothing has changed in Illinois, in the seat held by Republican Mark Kirk. Democrat Tammy Duckworth only has a 38% chance of winning, but the polling is old and (possibly an outlier). Illinois may well be a pick-up, but we don’t have good, recent polling to say so.

Last July, U.S. Representative Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the Indiana Senate race to make room for former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D). That changed the nature of the race. The state is now widely considered a Democratic pick-up.

Missouri was nearly a toss-up in July. Now it is solid for Republican Roy Blunt. Democrat Jason Kander only wins 22 the 100,000 simulated elections.

In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was leading Republican Joe Heck with a 67% probability of winning in July. Alas, the polling since then has favored Heck, and the Republican now has a 91% of winning an election now. Still, most of the polls are extremely close.

New Hampshire’s incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has been in the fight for her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. In July, the race was tied up. And, the fact is, Hassan leads in most polls. But one strong recent poll gives Ayotte the edge with a 78% probability of winning right now.

In Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland has been slowly losing ground to incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R). The graph says it all:

Pennsylvania was red in the previous analysis. But Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has been slipping to Democrat Katie McGinty, and the Democrat now has an 87% chance of winning now.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

As a white person, far be it from me to tell the majority Black Seahawks that they’re protesting police brutality wrong, especially when they’re at work. Still, I think if you thought it hit the right cord or if you thought it was a bit too all-lives-matter, we can all agree fuck the mayor of DuPont. What an asshole. I hope he draws strong opposition next time he’s up.

Exodus 32:27-29
Then he said to them, “This is what the LORD, the God of Israel, says: ‘Each man strap a sword to his side. Go back and forth through the camp from one end to the other, each killing his brother and friend and neighbor.’” The Levites did as Moses commanded, and that day about three thousand of the people died. Then Moses said, “You have been set apart to the LORD today, for you were against your own sons and brothers, and he has blessed you this day.”

Discuss.

Seth Meyers: Political things that actually happened.

Jimmy Dore: FAUX News media critic doesn’t understand they are GOP propaganda outlet.

Mental Floss: 26 facts about magic tricks.

Stephen: Obama’s weekend of insults.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

How to talk to a woman who suffers from headphones in ears.

The 2016 Alt-Right Clown Show:

• Mark Fiore: Turning a corner
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the candidate’s scandals
• Sam Seder: Pam Bondi denies she was bought by Drumpf
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf campaign elevates the absurd
• Roy Zimmerman: T-Rump:

• Roy Zimmerman is looking for more verses.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf and body language.
• MSNBC: Drumpf’s Iraq War lie and Esquire Editor clarifies interview
• Drumpf openly bragging about Pay-to-Play.
• Daily Show: Donald Drumpf courts the Black vote.
• Clinton on Drumpf appearing on RT
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Candidates (mostly Drumpf) on national security.
• Stephen: Does This Drumpf-shaped cloud predict a Republican win in November?
• Maddow: An echo of history Drumpf won’t want to hear
• Ann Telnaes: Drumpf pays to play.
• Maddow: Drumpf brings chaos to usually staid briefings
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s secret plan to stabalize the Middle East
• Seth Meyers takes a closer look at Drumpf’s minority outreach.
• Maddow: No, Vladimir Putin did not call Drumpf ‘brilliant’
• Roy Zimmerman is looking for new verses (of his T-RUMP song)
• Young Turks: Trump loves Putin:

• Stephen: The Drumpf campaign goes off script.
• Maddow: Scrutinizing Drumpf’s plans for new Generals

Stephen with Captain Sully.

Mental Floss: Why do traffic jams occur?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Young Turks: Kaepernick National Anthem protest continues to grow.

Jim Earl: Obituary for conservative legend Phyllis Schlafly.

James Corden: Where is Dr. Ben Carson’s luggage?

What are think tanks?

Colbert’s one year anniversary remembered roasts.

Sam Seder plays Tim Heidecker’s “I Am a Cuck”

Hillary Makes History:

• Andrea Mitchell: Life-long Republican former George W. Bush adviser endorses Clinton
• MSNBC: WaPo editorial says too much is being made of Clinton’s emails.
• Young Turks: Rince Priebus thinks Hillary doesn’t smile enough.
• Sam Seder: Newt Gingrich has a coughing fit while talking about Clinton’s coughing fit.
• Clinton on “not smiling enough”.

Slate: Everything you need to know about espresso.

PsychoSuperMom: Then You’re A Feminist.

Stephen on the forum and Matt Lauer.

Young Turks: Worst ad of 2016.

Seth Meyers and Michelle Obama give college freshman advice.

Trevor: Zika!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I’m both inspired and a little pissed off about Bob Ferguson supporting an assault weapons ban. On the one hand, it’s well past time, and I hope his push for this adds to the call. I suppose it’s possible to get something passed depending on the makeup of the next legislature.

On the other hand, it’s a relatively small amount of the gun deaths. And we’re going to need a lot more wholesale change than nibbling around the edges.

Clinton	Trump
>99.9% probability of winning	<0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 340 electoral votes	Mean of 198 electoral votes

There have only been 18 new polls since the analysis last week. (Actually, there have been a flood of polls done using internet panels, but I still refuse to include those polls.) Most notible among the polls is an Emerson poll from Maine that includes sub-polls for Maine’s two congressional districts. This is only the second pollster providing the CD breakdowns, and both have found the state split.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,991 times and Donald Trump wins 9 times. Clinton received (on average) 340 to Trump’s 198 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than 0.1% probability of winning. This is Trump’s best performance in months.

Over the past week, we have seen the national polls tighten up a bit. Even though most polling is done in swing states, it still takes some time for analyses based on state head-to-head polls to catch up with national polling. We should expect to see a shift toward Trump.

That said, the electoral map is still strongly favoring Clinton. It is difficult, right now, to see a path for Trump to achieve 269 EVs.

Here are a few state notes.

Georgia had five current polls for the previous analyses, but four have “aged-out” and now we have one current poll. As a result, the state has gone from 50.1% probability of Clinton taking the state to 52.7% for Trump. In other words, the state is still a dead tie.

In Iowa, one poll has aged out and two new polls have been added, one with Clinton up +2% and one with Trump up +5%. The net result is that Iowa has moved from 56.4% probability of Clinton winning the state in the last analysis to a 51% probability of Trump taking the state now. It is a toss-up.

The new Maine poll has moved Clinton chances of winning the state from 100% down to a 97.3% probability. Clinton’s chances in Maine’s 1st CD has gone from 97% to 99.9%. And in Maine’s 2nd CD, Trump’s chances have gone from 54% to a 76.2% probability of taking the state now.

This week we lose one Missouri poll and gain a new one with Trump up +9%. The net result is that the state goes from Trump winning with a 93.9% probability to a 99.6% probability of taking the state.

We have no new polls in Nevada this week, but one poll has aged out, moving Nevada from an 84.1% chance for Clinton to a 64.3% chance.

A surprisingly close new poll in New Jersey suggests that Trump has a 21.8% chance of taking the state. That said, Clinton has won every NJ poll to date.

In Ohio, two of last week’s five polls age out. This has moved Clinton’s chances down from 90% to an 82% chance of taking the state.

A new Rhode Island poll is surprisingly close. Trump now has gone from almost no chance of taking the state to a 30% chance. Still the polling overall favors Clinton.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

It always strikes me when I read about people rolling coal how right environmentalists are. This is how you protest? This? I mean it’s every asshole who shouts nonsense at a bicyclist or rides a bit (or a lot) too close seemingly intentionally. But pretending that instead of being an asshole, they’re protesting, something. It’s like, oh, how can global warming be real if I’m this much of an asshole?

As the summer comes to a close, we swing into full political season. So, please join us for discussion and a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. All are welcomed—no extreme vetting or forced deportations involved.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Next Monday, the newly reactivated Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Billy Bragg: There Is Power In A Union

U2: Maggie’s Farm

(Live version of Roy Zimmerman’s “Unions are to blame.”)

Paul Robeson: Joe Hill

Rush: Working Man

Pete Seeger Which Side Are You On

Natalie Merchant: Which side are you on

Dropkick Murphys: Workers Song

Strawbs: Part of the union

And now, a message from the President:

Luke 19:29-34
As he approached Bethphage and Bethany at the hill called the Mount of Olives, he sent two of his disciples, saying to them, “Go to the village ahead of you, and as you enter it, you will find a colt tied there, which no one has ever ridden. Untie it and bring it here. If anyone asks you, ‘Why are you untying it?’ say, ‘The Lord needs it.’”

Those who were sent ahead went and found it just as he had told them. As they were untying the colt, its owners asked them, “Why are you untying the colt?”

They replied, “The Lord needs it.”

Exodus 20:15
Thou shalt not steal.

Discuss.

Larry Wilmore does the Late Show.

Stephen: Are Russian hackers targeting American voters.

Thom: Exposing the Koch’s environment corruption.

Stephen with Congressman John Lewis (who goes surfing).

The 2016 White Nationalist Party Campaign Drumpf Campaign:

• Kimmel: Picking Drumpf is like picking a shirt.
• David Pakman: Drumpf polls at 0% among Blacks in some polls.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf extremism cuts at America’s foundation
• Stephen: What Drumpf’s meeting to Mexico probably looked like.
• PsychoSuperMom: We are (mostly) all immigrants, you shmucks:

• Young Turks: Why Drumpf has no ground game.
• Thom: Drumpf’s one man Good Cop, Bad Cop routine.
• David Pakman: Drumpf DESTROYED by Mexican Prez, who told him Mexico won’t pay for wall
• Maddow: New poll says Drumpf African-American numbers are abysmal
• George Lopez’s: position on Drumpf has hardened
• Seth Meyers: A couple of things about Drumpf’s modeling agency.
• Drumpf on a really stoopid tirade.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf nativist speech follows dark US pattern
• Young Turks: Remaining Hispanic supporters flee Drumpf campaign.
• Farron Cousins: Summary of Drumpf’s immigration speech—Immigrants are going to murder you
• David Pakman: Former Drumpf model admits she was working in US illegally
• Steve Kornacki: Nativist message costing Drumpf GOP support
• Joy Reid: Drumpf Foundation investigation
• Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann claims Drumpf was elevated to nomination by God.
• Colbert: Statesman Drumpf lasted about 3 minutes.
• Drumpf’s disastrous foreign “diplomacy”
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf in Mexico.
• James Corden: Drumpf goes to Mexico.
• Susie Sampson: Are Canadians down with Drumpf?.
• Stephen with Double Vision
• Thom: Drumpf could learn from the “Rat Park” experiment
• Ann Telnaes: Drumpf prepares for the presidential debate.
• Sam Seder: Right after Mexico Drumpf, “they don’t know it yet, but they’ll pay for the wall.”
• Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf pleasures praises himself over Dwayne Wade’s family tragedy.
• Drumpf’s immigration rhetoric: “rapists” and “criminals”
• Young Turks: Racist right rallies for Drumpf.
• Steve Kornacki: “Here’s your electoral problem, Mr. Drumpf”:

• Conan speaks with Drumpf’s doctor
• David Pakman: Drumpf’s doctor admits writing “medical letter” to please Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s Doctor can totally explain why his note sounds like Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: An interview with Donald Drumpf’s doctor
• Stephen: Drumpf’s extraordinary health report.
• David Pakman: Drumpf flip-flip-flip-flops back to “DEPORT THEM” in “major speech”
• Drumpf Models illegally hired immigrants without work visas
• Young Turks: Drumpf campaign manager’s insane military rape comments

Stephen: It’s finally time to cut off that Weiner.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why you don’t need 8 glasses of water a day.

Seth Meyers: A closer look at Clinton’s and Drumpf’s debate prep:

David Pakman: Overall, life is much better for most people under President Obama.

Farron Cousins: Sarah Palin’s head injury made her even more crazy.

The Flames in Maine Fall Mainly on LePage:

• David Pakman: Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) is overtly racist.
• Sam Seder: Nutburger Gov. Paul LePage: People of color or Hispanic origin are the enemy.
• Proof that Gov. Paul LePage is a racist
• Maddow: Paul LePage scrambles as Republican support fades

Seth Meyers: A closer look at extreme weather events and climate change.

Stephen: Scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation.

Jimmy Dore: Political news of the week.

Weiner’s Wares:

• James Corden: Anthony Weiner can’t stop.
• Conan: Weiner sexts some other things
• Jimmy Dore: Anthony Weiner’s penis destroys his entire life. Again.

Sam Seder: Shepard Smith goes rogue on FAUX—by casually NOT lying about voter suppression.

Farron Cousins: Surprise! Republican states are the real welfare queens.

Mental Floss: 25 parenting life hacks.

Sports Patriots:

• Thom: Kaepernick isn’t unpatriotic, Levi Strauss is…
• David Pakman: Does anyone see the insane hypocrisy of Colin Kaepernick smears?
• Farron Cousins: White people freak out when Black athletes speak up
• Young Turks: Veterans defend Colin Kaepernick’s right to sit
• Stephen: Colin Kaepernick’s bold stance is technically a bold sits.
• Sam Seder: FAUX News spokes-model Whitesplains MLK to Colin Kaepernick

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Stephen: Sarah Palin crashes and burns.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Seattle Transit Blog have published their endorsement of ST3. On the one hand, this is probably the most predictable endorsement of the campaign season. On the other hand, it’s such a refreshing change of pace from The Seattle Times’ uninformed screeds or Reuven Carlyle, all of a sudden and way too late, deciding he wants different financing.

Of course, I agree with them. It’s a great thing to be able to travel so easily to the U District and to South Seattle. Expanding the rail system is exactly the right thing to do.

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 350 electoral votes	Mean of 188 electoral votes

We now have about 20 new polls since the previous analysis last week. There Sec. Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in mean electoral votes 347 to 199. If the election had been held last week we would expect Clinton to win with near certainty.

The new polls come largely from swing states, and include: 2 AZ, 1 FL, 1 MI, 1 MO, 2 NC, 1 NH, 1 NY, 2 OH, 4 PA, 1 VA, 4 WI, and 1 WV.

A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, gives Clinton all 100,000 wins. Clinton received (on average) 350 to Trump’s 188 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with greater than 99% probability.

Basically, the newest polls don’t change the picture much. The only state to flip is Georgia, that went from Trump with a 72.5% probability of taking to state to Clinton with a 50.1% chance. In other words, Georgia looks like a toss-up. The change isn’t because of new polling. Rather, one old poll “dated out”. Frankly, Clinton’s standing is being driven by one poll from JMC Analytics that has her up +7%. I suspect this poll is an outlier.

In Missouri, a new PPP poll has Trump up +6%, which improve his chances of taking the state from 79.4% last week to 93.9% this week.

In North Carolina we lost one old poll and gained two new polls. The net result is no change: Clinton still has an 84% chance of taking the state now.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

I don’t. I mean. What?

Obviously, we’re not going to just ship Seattle’s homeless to, like, some island. I’m not sure there are any around that would really fit the bill. The San Juans? Blake Island? Can Seattle just acquire an island? Would we build an artificial island in the Sound just for that like in China or Dubai? All the time and effort to build housing, sewage, roads, transit, etc. to the island could be better used if you want to help Seattle’s homeless. Or just Seattle in general.

Also, it’s fucking cruel. If homeless people want to live on an island, they can right now. But to separate them from community and family because, reasons, doesn’t seem like it will help anyone.

I know this is one person who I hadn’t heard of before, and their idea is being soundly rejected. But on the other hand, they do hold leadership in the county Democrats.