| Senate Democrats* | Senate Republicans |
| 11.4% probability of a majority | 88.6% probability of a majority |
| Mean of 48 seats | Mean of 52 seats |
Control of the Senate is up for grabs this fall. My previous analysis showed Democrats with a average of 49 seats and Republicans with 51 seats, putting the Democrats in range to flip the Senate. That was over a half year ago, so it is time to update the analysis using a plethora of new polls released since then.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1,914 times, (and there were 9,521 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88,565 times. If the election was now, Democrats would have an 11.4% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans an 88.6% probability of controlling the Senate. Of course, if Republicans end up in the White House, the ties would go to them.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
The most likely outcome is a 52 to 48 split with Republicans in charge. Here are some state-by-state comments.
Florida: Without question, the return of Marco Rubio to the Senate race has changed the likely outcome. Democrat Patrick Murphy has a fight on his hands. Polls occasionally favor Murphy, but the most likely outcome is a victory for Rubio (assuming they both come out on top in the August 30 primary).
FL polls
