Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

The overall numbers haven’t changed much since my previous analysis last Saturday. The “score” still remains 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats, if the election had been held today.

This analysis is based on a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections. The results were that Democrats had a Senate majority 99,878 times and there were 122 ties. Republicans controled the Senate 0 times. If the election was today and Biden won, Democrats would control the Senate with a >99.99% probability. If Biden loses, the Democrat’s chances drop to 99.88%

Even if the overall numbers have changes, there are some interesting results from individual states. I’ll compare movement over the past 5 days.

• Alaska—One new PPP poll (for a total of 4) favors Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. His chances bump up from a 52% probability to a 65% probability of defeating Democrat Al Gross
• Georgia seat 1—We have six new polls and lose four old polls for a total of 17 polls. The result is that the race changes from a 60% probability of Republican Sen. David Perdue winning to a 61% probability of Democrat Jon Ossoff winning
• Iowa—The race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield trying to unseat Republican Sen. Joni Ernst sees two new polls and two old polls drop out. The net result, with 12 polls, is that Greenfield goes from a 76% to a 87% probability of winning right now
• Kansas—This is one of the big surprises for 2020 where Democrat Barbara Bollier may well defeat Republican Roger Marshall for this open seat. One poll aged out, leaving three poll that moves Bollier from a 63% to an 81% probability of winning. One caveat…the newest of the three current poll has Marshall in the lead.
• Maine—The race with Democrat Sara Gideon trying to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins has generally favored Gideon. With two new polls and one old poll dropping out, the four current polls all have Gideon in the lead, but her chances drop from 97% to 88%. The primarily reason is a new SurveyUSA poll that has Gideon leading by a mere 0.4%!
• Mississippi—This race has Democrat Mike Espy trying to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Five days ago, the only poll was from last August and had Hyde-Smith up by +1. A new Civiqs poll has her up by +8, upping her chances from 56% to 90%.
• Montana—This contest between Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Sen. Steve Daines is another surprisingly close race. Keep an eye on it. We have two new polls weighing in for a total of eight polls. Four polls have Daines leading, three polls have Bullock leading (by +1), and there is one tie. Daines chances drop from 80% to 71% of winning an election held now.
• South Carolina—This is the race everyone is watching to see if Democrat Jamie Harrison will dethrone Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham was barely hanging on with a 57% probability of winning, but with three new polls added in and two dropping out (for a total of 6 polls), Graham’s chances have risen to 87% probability. Three of the polls favor Graham, two favor favor Harrison and there is one tie.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.

The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.

This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:

Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):

Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.

How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.

Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.

In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.

The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes	Mean of 174 electoral votes

I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:

Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):

[Read more…]

Bill Maher: American ninja warrior—Democracy edition

True Colors: How Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up in politics

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Trevor: Biden laps Трамп in fundraising
• Keith Olbermann: Terrorist Трамп tips parts of plan to keep oower
• Larry Wilmore: What are “gettable” voters, and how do you get them?
• The New York Times: This U.S. election could be the most secure yet. Here’s why.
• Samantha Bee: The nightmare before election day pt. 1
• Bad Lip Reading: Debate night:

• Samantha Bee: The nightmare before election day pt. 2
• Trevor: Трамп & Biden spar over Lincoln, child detention & race
• The Late Show: Rudy, the Russians, and Hunter’s lappy yop
• Keith Olbermann: The Dotard runs out of bullshit
• Songify the News: THE LAST FIGHT—Трамп vs. Biden
• J-L Cauvin: Pence roasts Kamala on her birthday
• College Humor: What undecided voters look like to everyone else
• Bruce W. Nelson: Reject the dictator
• Jimmy Kimmel on Трамп and Biden’s final debate
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote him away (version 3):

• Desi Lydic Foxsplains Hunter Biden
• Stephen: Desperate Dotard attacks Dr. Fauci, dances for votes on the campaign trail
• Larry Wilmore: Трамп has abandoned his core voting bloc…old white people
• Trevor: Early voting sets records as The Dotard trashes Dr. Fauci
• Robert Reich: How to stop Трамп from stealing the election
• The Late Show: The Dotard’s microphone calls him out
• SNL: Dueling town halls
• Jimmy Kimmel: 3-Year-Old Billy Kimmel is what this election is about:

• Amber Ruffin: Kamala Harris’ name isn’t that hard to pronounce
• Samantha Bee: Every vote counts—Panel of losers
• Trevor: Why is Lindsey Graham Begging for money? And tales of other likely 2020 roadkill
• Stephen: The Dotard trashes New York, Joe unveils ‘Bidencare’ at final debate

Amber Ruffin: The one constant in these “uncertain times”

Robert Reich: What happened to the Voting Rights Act?

Francesca Fiorentini: Socialism—Republicans keep being forced to love it

The Dotard Трамп and Other High Level Grifters and Deplorables:

• Trevor: Трамп’s border wall—A four-year saga
• Jimmy Kimmel: OF COURSE the Dotard has a secret Chinese bank account
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard never heard of Borat or Rudy
• Seth Meyers: Трамп ignores COVID spike, says he’ll leave the country if he loses
• Keith Olbermann: Rudy caught with his Borat hanging out
• The Late Show: The White House’s cut of Трамп’s “60 Minutes” interview (exclusive preview)
• The Daily Show: How to spot a Трамп lie
• Bruce W. Nelson: We’re rounding the corner on COVID
• Vox: How America could lose its allies
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rants—My favorite people are vulnerable seniors, etc.
• Seth Meyers: The Dotard leaks embarrassing 60 minutes interview before second debate
• Lauren Mayer: If I wrote a song (every time Трамп said something stupid):

• Full Frontal: The worst four years ever
• The Late Show: Instagram gods respond to Dotard Трамп, Jr.
• Trevor: Трамп’s first term trips abroad
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Reading with Mangy”, lesson one, the “TR” and “UMP” sounds.
• Stephen: Cruelty was the plan—Chilling news about the human toll of Трамп’s child separation policy
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп stuff
• Seth Meyers: Трамп storms out of 60 minutes interview, attacks Lesley Stahl
• WaPo: The Dotard keeps taking credit for Obama’s Veterans Choice Act
• Bill Maher: From Russia with yuck
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reviews HBOs 537 Votes
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп ain’t as tall as he seems
• The Late Show: Learn to dance like The Dotard Трамп
• Roy Wood Jr.: Трамп’s top 100 scandals—100 to 76
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s errand boy Rudy Guliani is exposing “corruption”…

Mainers for Accountable Leadership: Susan Collins’ final sct

Seth Meyers: Back in my day….

Vox: Why American public transit is so bad

Superspreading ТрампPlague:

• The Daily Show: The Dotard doesn’t understand corners
• John Oliver: The World Health Organization
• Lauren Mayer: https://youtu.be/dFS5-fiSTEc:
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s TIRED of covid? I’M tired of him KILLING us
• The Late Show: The Dotard dances with Covid-19 and the Grim Reaper
• Bill Maher: New Words for 2020
• Noah Lindquist and friends: Wear a mask:

• Samantha Bee: Declaration of incompetence
• Our Cartoon President: The Dotard declares war on COVID-19
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп attacks Fauci as COVID cases spike
• Stephen: Joy Reid notes that the pandemic has magnified Трамп’s worst qualities and ruined the GOP’s political fortunes
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is firing Dr. Fauci
• Jimmy Dore: Chris Christie got COVID!
• Trevor: The week in coronavirus

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Trevor: Sen. Elizabeth Warren on fighting Republicans’ threats to democracy

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 361 electoral votes	Mean of 177 electoral votes

With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.

My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.

Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.

Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.

Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:

[Read more…]

Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies

Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• The Daily Show: Why you should help save democracy by working the polls
• Lauren Mayer: Suburban women
• SNL: VP fly debate
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard explains that his Town Hall crushed Joe Biden’s Town Hall
• Meidas Touch: Don’t gamble on Трамп
• The Daily Show: Who will get the Blackwote: Трамп or Biden?
• Founders Sing: Karma goes round in circles:

• Parody Project: The Spooky Mens Chorale—Vote the bastards out
• Trevor: The Dotard obsesses over Hunter Biden and a looney-tune Bin Laden conspiracy
• Our Cartoon President: First post-COVID rally
• Roll Call: 2020 Projection—Biden and Democrats poised to win big
• Meidas Touch: The Quaranteenies—Game
• Songify The News: The cancelled debate, but we un-cancelled it
• Bill Maher: Dueling grandpas
• Comedy Central: What voting is like in a nudist colony
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп & Biden’s dueling town halls
• Lauren Mayer: Landslide:

• College Humor: Why I’m voting for opposite man
• Keith Olbermann: Trump admits he’s losing; “Unmask-gate” fizzles
• Trevor: Anita Hill on why she chose to endorse Joe Biden
• Meidas Touch: Believe in America

SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.

Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.

Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday

The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:

• Bruce W. Nelson: A Russian message to Трамп
• Keith Olbermann: GOP Senator Sasse gives a huge “fuck you” to The Dotard
• Meidas Touch: Трамп the grave dancer
• WaPo: The Dotard pushed phony ‘unmasking’ conspiracy theory for years
• Don Winslow Films: #MemoToTrump
• Now This: How government agencies are failing under Трамп
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s voter fraud, sexy superspreading & Biden-bashing
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп dance
• Demi Lovato: Commander in Chief:

• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpAttacksBlackWomen
• Keith Olbermann: Mitt Romney is an enabler of Трамп’s terrorism
• Really American: Трамп projection
• Meidas Touch: Bye Tiffany
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hating can be fine
• Americans for Decency: Save America—Radical right terror must go
• The Daily Show: The Трамп administration’s first term corruption
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп! Get Fauci’s face off your SCUMBAG TV ADS

Vox: How the next president could change policing.

The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate

Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.

TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:

• SNL Weekend Update: Dr. Wenowdis on Трамп’s televised health exam
• Meidas Touch: “Don’t Worry” | #AmericaNeedsHealthcare
• Bruce W. Nelson: Don’t let COVID dominate your life
• Jimmy Kimmel: Trump is only MENTALLY ill now
• Really American: Blame Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп ranting press conference becomes hallucination musical with the governors demanding more PPE!:

• Larry Wilmore: Трамп is a virus and disinformation superspreader. Will America finally drop him over it?
• Francesca Fiorentini: Should the U.S. invade…itself?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Droplets of love in the air at Трамп’s return rally
• Bill Maher: Fareed Zakaria on ten lessons for the post-pandemic world
• Trevor: Why Трамп is threatening to kiss you
• SNL: Enough is enough!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills—The travel ban hoax
• Trevor: Did Трамп’s rich friends get a heads-up about coronavirus?
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп owned stock in regeneron
• Roy Zimmerman and Molly Bauckham: Feed the birds (Трамп Pence and MAGA):

• Songbird: Pursuing a vaccination
• Jimmy Kimmel: Senator Elizabeth Warren on Trump’s COVID Failure,
• WaPo: Superspreader events explained
• Trevor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo on New York’s pandemic response in hindsight
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп leaves the hospital

The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.

Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman

SCOTUS Tragedy:

• The Daily Show: Трамп’s first term SCOTUS appointments
• Mark Fiore: Conservative court relief
• Now This: Amy Coney Barrett dodges questions
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Nut pick
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to day one of the Amy Coney Barrett hearings
• Founders Sing: ROE, ROE, ROE V. WADE—RBG reappears to confront Amy about her true intentions!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793

Trevor: Columbus Day

Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Songify the News (with Blondie): One heartbeat away – Kamala vs. Pence
• Americans for Decency: Kamala the MAGA slayer (& friends)
• The Daily Show: Mail-in voting dos and don’ts
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп refuses to do a virtual debate with Joe Biden!!!
• Our Cartoon President: COVID-positive Cartoon Трамп watches the VP debate
• Roy Zimmerman and Laura Love: My vote, my voice, my right:

• Seth Meyers: Hey! Kamala Harris and Mike Pence’s 2020 VP debate
• Robert Riech: Four key takeaways from the Harris-Pence VP debate
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jaime Harrison on Lindsey Graham’s hypocrisy & helping the community
• Meidas Touch: Трамп devastation
• Stephen: Washington, confused about voting in the 2020 election? “Better know a ballot” is here to help!
• SNL: Presidential debate
• The Late Show: Taylor Swift backs Joe Biden in her new single
• Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence prepares for his debate against Sen. Kamala Harris
• The Daily Show: Scowls, smirks, eye rolls
• Randy Rainbow with Patti LuPone: If the Dotard got fired:

• John Oliver: Election 2020
• Trevor: Трамп refuses a virtual debate
• Now This: Fact-checking the 2020 Vice Presidential debate
• Seth Meyers: Трамп has election meltdown as White House covers up COVID-19 outbreak
• Larry Wilmore: What the fuck, undecided voters?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Pence Harris VP Debate
• Jonathan Mann: Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking
• Really American: Man of the moment
• Roy Wood, Jr: Are harsher vote-by-mail laws really just voter suppression?
• The Foundation Singers: The fly song:

• Lauren Mayer: Has Mike Pence ever let a woman finish?
• Trevor: Pence’s fly and Harris’s expressions steal the debate
• Meidas Touch: I’m speaking
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence discusses his new friend, debate fly
• Seth Meyers: Late night’s October surprise predictions

Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.

Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:

• Stephen: Like flies on what?
• Americans for Decency: Donald and miracles
• Robert Reich: How you can stop America’s slide toward tyranny
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks the Nobel Peace Prize
• Amber Ruffin: I’ve got $20 more tThan the President:

• Americans for Decency: Donald and smoke—Coronavirus, wildfires, and protests
• The Daily Show: Won’t you help an American President in need?
• Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Pence’s debate performance, “He’s pretty comfortable telling a total lie”
• Bruce W. Nelson: No one tells me what to do
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s holy grail just disappeared
• Robert Reich: Empathy for the world’s least empathetic person?
• The Daily Show: Melania Трамп Hates Christmas
• The Parody Project: End of the world:

• Meidas Touch: Трамп is not America
• Sarah Cooper: How to drugs
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп furious over plot to kidnap Michigan governor!!
• Americans for Decency: Abuzz with GOP hypocrisy—Flying under the radar with Mike Pence
• Stephen: John Brennan—Трамп’s failure to denounce White supremacist groups has fueled their rise
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s plan to nullify the election

Vox: How US schools punish Black kids

Amber Ruffin: The week in review

Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments

Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:

• Stephen: Трамп expected to resume hosting indoor mask-free campaign rallies
• Trevor: The Dotard has coronavirus & the White House does damage control
• Bruce W. Nelson: A get well song for The Dotard
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп updates the nation from Walter Reed on his car ride
• Jonathan Mann: Getting COVID to own the libs!
• Americans for Decency: Donald and Delirium—Walter Reed melodrama
• Mark Fiore: Get well soon, Mr. President
• Foundation Singers: I’m so sorry (Трамп apologizes!)
• Meidas Touch: Трамп Virus
• Now This: GOP lawmakers are possibly spreading COVID-19
• Seth Meyers: Трамп leaves hospital, says “Don’t be afraid of COVID”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп announces a cure for COVID
• Jimmy Kimmel: Superspreader Трамп is ready to rally again!
• Stephen’s Zoom interview with Трамп
• The Late Show: Secret Service agent irate over Трамп’s joyride
• James Corden: Maybe I’m Immune’:

• Stephen: Трамп sends stocks tumbling with hostage-style threat to block covid stimulus package negotiations
• Seth Meyers with a corona-monologue
• Jimmy Kimmel: Dotard’s Трампumphant return to COVID infested White House
• The Late Show: Is Трамп tripping on Dexamethasone?
• Trevor: Трамп is home and back to comparing COVID to the flu
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsPatientZero
• Stephen: John Brennan—A reckless President taking covid drugs is a dangerous cocktail for the White House
• The Late Show: Achoober—The ride sharing service for contagious covid patients
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on no COVID relief bill
• Seth Meyers: Трамп stages maskless photo op while still infected with COVID-19
• John Di Domenico: Трамп 4am post hospital press conference on steroids
• Jordan Klepper: Трамп’s COVID rally
• Americans for Decency: Donald and losing—Let us remember
• Keith Olbermann: Worst Person No. 1. The Dotard Трамп—Mass murderer who will kill 150,000 more of us this year
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song of Hope (Hicks)
• Stephen: Трамп says “Don’t let it dominate your life,” returns to the White House still infected with covid
• act.tv: Трамп has a loaded COVID gun
• SNL: Weekend Update
• Trevor: Coronavirus spreads rapidly through the White House
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s inner covid monologue as he returns to the White House
• Jonathan Mann: Is Tucker Carlson ok?
• Seth Meyers: Bob Woodward says Трамп was confident he would not catch COVID-19
• The Late Show: Трамп’s new roommate, covid-19!
• Francesca Fiorentini: How COVID is weaponized to kill public schools

Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?

Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 366 electoral votes	Mean of 172 electoral votes

For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.

Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.

Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.

Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.

North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:

Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:

Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.

This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.

Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.

Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Stephen: Lindsey Graham is on the ropes in South Carolina as Republicans struggle in several red state races.

John Oliver: The Supreme Court

Now This: What you need to know about the Proud Boys

Samantha Bee: How the school choice debate is failing our public schools

Americans for Decency: Good shenanigans vs. GOP purges and Трамп distractions

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Trevor reacts to the first Biden-Трамп debate
• The Late Show: Who’s ready for an old man slap fight?
• Jimmy Kimmel on the worst debate ever
• J-L-Cauvin: Трамп reacts to The Rock endorsing Joe Biden
• Really American: Lindsey for Biden
• The Daily Show: Трамп wants mail-in voting to fail
• Seth Meyers: Трамп called for Biden to get drug tested before debate
• Trevor: Трамп demands pre-debate drug tests & The Rock endorses Biden
• Jonathan Mann: If we get ghe votes, he’s gonna go:

• Eleven Films: 95 minutes in Трамп’s America
• The Late Show: Biden attempts to shut up The Dotard
• Seth Meyers: Трамп lashes out after unhinged debate performance
• J-L-Cauvin: The Dotard defends his debate debacle
• Jimmy Kimmel: Sen. Bernie Sanders on the debate
• The Daily Show: What were Трамп and Biden listening to in their debate earpieces?
• Samantha Bee: The first (and God, not the last??) 2020 presidential “debate”
• Mark Fiore: Nailed it!
• act.tv: Kamala Harris on Трамп’s refusal to condemn White supremacists
• Desi Lydic Foxsplains Biden’s earpiece
• Now This: Fact checking the first debate
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп, the constant interrupter
• Stephen: Sen. Cory Booker’s live reaction to Трамп’s frightening message to White supremacists
• Songify The News: WE’RE ALL DOOMED—Трамп vs. Biden featuring “Weird Al” Yankovic

• Jonathan Mann: Would you shut up mn? (2020 debate remix)
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s debate performance was an embarrassing debacle
• Robert Reich: The 6 most revealing moments from the presidential debate
• Lauren Mayer: “Will you shut up, man?”
• Trevor: Трамп “stands by” White supremacists in off-the-rails debate
• Our Cartoon President: The first debate goes off the rails
• Stephen: GOP worries they backed the wrong horse as Biden’s lead grows following “embarrassing” debate
• Americans for Decency: Donald and debate—Welcome to clown town

Songbird: A tribute to Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Vice News: Inside Portland’s turf war between proud boys and local antifascists

John Oliver: Census update.

Trevor: Wildfires.

AJ+: How Republicans pulled off a massive voter purge

Trainwreck Трамп and His Toy Storm Troopers:

• Stephen: Sen. Booker says The Dotard’s SCOTUS nominee should recuse herself from any ruling involving the election
• Really American: Proud Boy Трамп
• Meidas Touch: Bye Lindsey—Lindsey Graham vs. The Dotard Трамп
• Seth Meyers: Getting to know Amy Coney Barrett
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s tax returns—10 things you need to know
• Trevor: Трамп’s tax avoidance and massive debt revealed
• J-L-Cauvin: Трамп attacks failing New York Times tax story!!!
• Stephen: Трамп fails to walk back his troubling endorsement of a violent hate group during first debate
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotABillionaire
• The Daily Show: Meet the man who played Трамп during 2016 presidential debate prep
• Meidas Touch: End Трамп’s hate
• Stephen: Трамп’s tax returns reveal massive personal debts, tax liabilities and staggering business losses
• The Daily Show: Excuse! That! Crime!
• Meidas Touch and Bette Midler: You’re moving out today:

• Bruce W. Nelson: I don’t want no Donald Трамп
• Really American: Racist Трамп
• Seth Meyers: Трамп tax bombshell reveals how the system is rigged
• Americans for Decency: Donald and debts—Трамп’s taxes bombshell
• Jimmy Kimmel:
• J-L-Cauvin: Трамп is bribing Black people with the Platinum Plan!
• Meidas Touch: Bye Rudy
• The Late Show: What if Трамп’s lies created a magnetic force?
• Trevor: Трамп nominates Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Meidas Touch: Fire Susan—Susan Collins betrayed us

The Late Show: Great moments in debate history—Nuclear missile worries about Reagan’s age

The Daily Show: The GOP makes it harder for ex-felons to vote in Florida

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Unpatriotic history

Typhoid Donnie and Other Vectors of Disease, Death, and Decay:

• Trevor: On Трамп getting COVID
• J-L-Cauvin: Трамп gives a covid update from Walter Reed Hospital
• Now This: Supercut of The Dotard mocking masks
• Americans for Decency: Donald and karma—Трамп tests positive
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп tests positive
• Jonathan Mann: Who gives a guck about Christmas stuff?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s COVID-19 diagnosis
• The Foundation Singers: VACCINE:

• Full Frontal: This women’s roller derby league made a better COVID-19 plan than Трамп
• Really American: COVID caught Трамп
• J-L-Cauvin: Трамп reveals Hope Hicks has the covid!!!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s lies have consequences
• New York Times: How America bungled the plague
• Trevor: Dr. Anthony Fauci—When to wear a mask
• J-L-Cauvin: Трамп addresses the nation after testing positive for covid

Robert Reich: GOP takeover of the Supreme Court—What you need to know

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Trevor: Rev. Al Sharpton—How to protest based on tangible goals

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Democratic Governors	Republican Governors
Mean of 23 seats	Mean of 27 seats

There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.

After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.

Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 377 electoral votes	Mean of 161 electoral votes

My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:

1. A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
2. A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
3. A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
4. A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%

Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:

1. Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
2. Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
3. Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
4. In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
5. Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
6. Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
7. In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]