Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 360 electoral votes	Mean of 178 electoral votes

It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….

What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.

We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.

North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.

There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

The previous analysis of the Senate races four days ago showed control of the Senate likely to go to the Democrats, with an expected 54 seats. Since then there have been many new polls released. As a result, the race has tightened slightly.

Now, the Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Democrats have a Senate majority 99,773 times and produces 227 ties. Republicans never control the Senate. That is an almost imperceptible “slide” for the Democrats from the previous analysis. But the mean number of seats has dropped by one from 54.2 to 53.2. Part of the reason is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from 1 month to 3 weeks, as there is enough polling to justify the narrower window. And doing so increases the chances of catching late trends in the race.

There were a few big changes. In Alaska, where Democrat Al Gross is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, the newest polls take the race from a tie to Sullivan in the lead with a 78% chance of winning an election today. For Georgia’s seat 1 race where Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is trying to unseat Republican Sen. David Perdue, the last 6 of 14 polls have put Ossoff in the lead. Perdue had a 65% chance of winning four days ago, but now Ossoff has the edge with an 87% chance of winning. In Iowa, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield’s once strong lead has slipped. Four days ago she had a 76 percent probability of winning. Now she has a 61% chance. The open seat in Kansas has Democrat Barbara Bollier head-to-head with Republican Roger Marshall. Boiller had a slight lead that translates to a 63% probability of winning. But the new polling has Marshell ahead with a 91% chance of winning.

The Race in Maine has tightened as well. Democrat Sara Gideon has been leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In fact, Gideon still leads in all three current polls, but one poll is nearly a tie. Gideon’s lead has slipped from 97% a few days ago to 87% probability today. In another challenge to an incumbent, Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for her Mississippi seat. The polling tightened up recently, and Hyde-Smith had a 56% chance of winning a few days ago. But a new Civiqs poll has Hyde-Smith up by +8%, boosting the Senator’s chances to a 90% probability of winning. Finally, in the South Carolina race, Democrat Jamie Harrison’s challenge of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has seen a shift in Graham’s chances of prevailing from 56% to an 88% chance.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Samantha Bee: Now that’s what I call a fucking atrocity—family separation

Bruce W. Nelson: What about Mitch?

John Oliver: Asylum

Bruce W. Nelson: Mitch McConnell’s swamp-grown, un-organic, rather toxic garden mulch

Now This: How Texas Republicans are making it harder to vote

Biden—Harris 2020:

• SNL: The final debate (cold open)
• Amber Ruffin: The 2016 election day sketch Amber wrote assuming Hillary would win
• Trevor: Kamala Harris—Coronavirus, police reform, and unifying America
• Seth Meyers: With five days to go, Трамп and the GOP campaign against reality
• Epic Rap Battles of History: Dotard Трамп vs Joe Biden
• The Daily Show: Hannity on Hillary 2016 vs Biden 2020
• Amber Ruffin on rappers supporting The Dotard
• SNL: Political ad:

• Full Frontal: Getting through the maze of Pennsylvanian voter values
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoons Трамп & Biden hold their final rallies
• Trevor: Трамп leaves his supporters to freeze & Obama goes off
• Bruce W. Nelson: We’re at the end of the trail
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and Brett Kavanaugh telegraph their plan to steal the election
• The Protest Films: Hard landing
• Jimmy Dore: Vince Vaughn abandoned at Трамп rally!
• The Daily Show: Why are Black men more likely to support Трамп than Black women?
• Randy Rainbow: How will you vote?:

• Bruce W. Nelson: The NEW Трамп campaign rally song!!!!!!!!
• Jordan Klepper hits one more Трамп rally before the election
• Now This: How Трамп could attempt to steal the election
• Samantha Bee: The last free and fair election?
• SNL Weekend Update: Final presidential 2020 debate
• Seth Meyers: Cindy McCain on why she is supporting Joe Biden
• Desi Lydic: Are undecided voters really undecided?
• Jon Batiste: Kamala:

• Jimmy Fallon: Mayor Pete Buttigieg doesn’t want voters to get too comfortable
• Stephen: Polling expert Amy Walter on how an incumbent President’s job approval rating is a key election predictor
• Bruce W. Nelson: When he’s gone
• Trevor: What happened to Lindsey Graham
• Conan: A concerned voter weighs in on the Hunter Biden scandal
• The Daily Show: Elsa was among those stranded in the freezing cold at Трамп’s Omaha rally
• Stephen: We aren’t the only ones paranoid about election day

Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Susan Collins dodges everyone’s questions

Desi Lydic: Remembering RBG—A nation ugly cries

Amber Ruffin: The untold history of the Blue Feathers

Now This: Damon Young shows how hard it is for Black people to vote in America.

Vice News: Voter suppression—It’s the American way

The Dotard Трамп and Other Snowflakey Misogynists and Racists:

• College Humor: Every terrible thing Трамп has done as President
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп votes, fake Melania & Barrett confirmation
• The Late Show: Learn Jared Kushner’s motivation secrets for Black Americans!
• Meidas’s Touch: Sicko Трамп
• Stephen: Sarah Cooper’s viral Трамп lip sync videos act as an interpreter for the emotionally blind
• Roy Wood, Jr.: Counting down Трамп’s 100 most tremendous scandals—75-51
• The Parody Project: McEnany (A Macarena parody)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s inner monologue during the Amy Coney Barrett swearing in
• FoD’s The Best Presidency Ever: Fast food & Russian interference
• Keith Olbermann: The 50 worst Трамп atrocities:

• Samantha Bee’s best Трамп takedowns
• Really American: Trump cut social security
• Vice News: Трамп’s crime galaxy is a thing of wonder
• The Daily Show: Meet the man in charge of Трамп’s Teleprompter
• Seth Meyers: Melania Трамп tries to dispel the fake Melania conspiracy theory
• FoD’s Best Presidency Ever: Tear gassing peaceful protestors & endorsing White supremacy
• Meidas’s Touch: Трамп and Putin—The greatest love story ever told
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s COVID denial, rally disdain & meeting with Lil Wayne
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s 5 scariest films of all time for Halloween
• Americans for Decency: Donald and running—The great escape from 60 Minutes
• Roy Wood, Jr.: Counting down Трамп’s 100 most tremendous scandals—50-26
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song for Lesley Stahl (Dotard Трамп got his butt kicked)
• Trevor: A love story for the ages
• Meidas Touch: The Dotard’s deadly sins
• Keith Olbermann: The Dotard is sundowning
• blaire erskine: Nip-nude for Трамп
• Founders Sing: Conned in the U.S.A.:

• SNL: The Village People on The Dotard Using Their Music
• The Late Show: Horrified pumpkin tries to carve out Трамп’s signature
• Meidas Touch: Alumni against Трамп
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Трамп watches Cartoon Lindell get maimed
• Meidas Touch: Трамп is pathetic—Трамп’s 60 Minutes disaster
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS traitor Miles Taylor!!
• The Daily Show: Трамп’s 100 most tremendous scandals—The definitive list
• Bruce Springsteen: We are lost
• Keith Olbermann: The 50 worst persons in Трамп World

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Really American: Everyone hates Lindsey

Stephen: The GOP’s voter suppression efforts are inherently evil.

Robert Reich: The stock market IS NOT The Economy!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Superspreadin’ the ТрампPlague:

• Stephen: Dr. Sanjay Gupta says the coronavirus vaccine shots may be needed yearly
• Seth Meyers: Трамп administration gives up on controlling the coronavirus pandemic
• Mark Fiore: The Closer
• Stephen: Трамп won’t let covid stop his campaign, keeps Mike Pence on the trail amid new staff outbreak
• Now This: Kushner brags about The Dotard taking the country “back from the doctors”
• Keith Olbermann: Pence should’ve been arrested as health risk; it’s now Трамп-45/Covid-19
• Stephen: Трамп holds superspreader rallies and whines about covid while Joe Biden offers a competing vision
• Lauren Mayer: Superspreader:

• James Corden: The Трампs may not know what 6 feet is
• Stephen: As Трамп and Biden push opposing covid strategies, this election may determine the pandemic’s path
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s failed coronavirus response
• Americans for Decency: The masque of the red death
• FoD’s Best Presidency Ever: Downplaying COVID-19 & drinking bleach
• Jimmy Kimmel: Good news! Трамп ended COVID-19 pandemic!
• The Late Show: The White House gives up and the coronavirus wins big
• Stephen: Ending the coronavirus pandemic is NOT one of Трамп’s accomplishments

Bruce W. Nelson: Poor li’l Lindsey

Late Show: Jenny Hagel on Pope Francis and same-sex civil unions

Vox: Why LGBTQ rights hinge on the definition of “sex”

Trevor: Amy Coney Barrett is vonfirmed & Democrats vow revenge

Meidas Touch: Traffic stop

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes	Mean of 165 electoral votes

The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.

In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

The overall numbers haven’t changed much since my previous analysis last Saturday. The “score” still remains 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats, if the election had been held today.

This analysis is based on a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections. The results were that Democrats had a Senate majority 99,878 times and there were 122 ties. Republicans controled the Senate 0 times. If the election was today and Biden won, Democrats would control the Senate with a >99.99% probability. If Biden loses, the Democrat’s chances drop to 99.88%

Even if the overall numbers have changes, there are some interesting results from individual states. I’ll compare movement over the past 5 days.

• Alaska—One new PPP poll (for a total of 4) favors Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. His chances bump up from a 52% probability to a 65% probability of defeating Democrat Al Gross
• Georgia seat 1—We have six new polls and lose four old polls for a total of 17 polls. The result is that the race changes from a 60% probability of Republican Sen. David Perdue winning to a 61% probability of Democrat Jon Ossoff winning
• Iowa—The race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield trying to unseat Republican Sen. Joni Ernst sees two new polls and two old polls drop out. The net result, with 12 polls, is that Greenfield goes from a 76% to a 87% probability of winning right now
• Kansas—This is one of the big surprises for 2020 where Democrat Barbara Bollier may well defeat Republican Roger Marshall for this open seat. One poll aged out, leaving three poll that moves Bollier from a 63% to an 81% probability of winning. One caveat…the newest of the three current poll has Marshall in the lead.
• Maine—The race with Democrat Sara Gideon trying to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins has generally favored Gideon. With two new polls and one old poll dropping out, the four current polls all have Gideon in the lead, but her chances drop from 97% to 88%. The primarily reason is a new SurveyUSA poll that has Gideon leading by a mere 0.4%!
• Mississippi—This race has Democrat Mike Espy trying to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Five days ago, the only poll was from last August and had Hyde-Smith up by +1. A new Civiqs poll has her up by +8, upping her chances from 56% to 90%.
• Montana—This contest between Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Sen. Steve Daines is another surprisingly close race. Keep an eye on it. We have two new polls weighing in for a total of eight polls. Four polls have Daines leading, three polls have Bullock leading (by +1), and there is one tie. Daines chances drop from 80% to 71% of winning an election held now.
• South Carolina—This is the race everyone is watching to see if Democrat Jamie Harrison will dethrone Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham was barely hanging on with a 57% probability of winning, but with three new polls added in and two dropping out (for a total of 6 polls), Graham’s chances have risen to 87% probability. Three of the polls favor Graham, two favor favor Harrison and there is one tie.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.

The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.

This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:

Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):

Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.

How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.

Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.

In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.

The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes	Mean of 174 electoral votes

I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:

Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):

[Read more…]

Bill Maher: American ninja warrior—Democracy edition

True Colors: How Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up in politics

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Trevor: Biden laps Трамп in fundraising
• Keith Olbermann: Terrorist Трамп tips parts of plan to keep oower
• Larry Wilmore: What are “gettable” voters, and how do you get them?
• The New York Times: This U.S. election could be the most secure yet. Here’s why.
• Samantha Bee: The nightmare before election day pt. 1
• Bad Lip Reading: Debate night:

• Samantha Bee: The nightmare before election day pt. 2
• Trevor: Трамп & Biden spar over Lincoln, child detention & race
• The Late Show: Rudy, the Russians, and Hunter’s lappy yop
• Keith Olbermann: The Dotard runs out of bullshit
• Songify the News: THE LAST FIGHT—Трамп vs. Biden
• J-L Cauvin: Pence roasts Kamala on her birthday
• College Humor: What undecided voters look like to everyone else
• Bruce W. Nelson: Reject the dictator
• Jimmy Kimmel on Трамп and Biden’s final debate
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote him away (version 3):

• Desi Lydic Foxsplains Hunter Biden
• Stephen: Desperate Dotard attacks Dr. Fauci, dances for votes on the campaign trail
• Larry Wilmore: Трамп has abandoned his core voting bloc…old white people
• Trevor: Early voting sets records as The Dotard trashes Dr. Fauci
• Robert Reich: How to stop Трамп from stealing the election
• The Late Show: The Dotard’s microphone calls him out
• SNL: Dueling town halls
• Jimmy Kimmel: 3-Year-Old Billy Kimmel is what this election is about:

• Amber Ruffin: Kamala Harris’ name isn’t that hard to pronounce
• Samantha Bee: Every vote counts—Panel of losers
• Trevor: Why is Lindsey Graham Begging for money? And tales of other likely 2020 roadkill
• Stephen: The Dotard trashes New York, Joe unveils ‘Bidencare’ at final debate

Amber Ruffin: The one constant in these “uncertain times”

Robert Reich: What happened to the Voting Rights Act?

Francesca Fiorentini: Socialism—Republicans keep being forced to love it

The Dotard Трамп and Other High Level Grifters and Deplorables:

• Trevor: Трамп’s border wall—A four-year saga
• Jimmy Kimmel: OF COURSE the Dotard has a secret Chinese bank account
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard never heard of Borat or Rudy
• Seth Meyers: Трамп ignores COVID spike, says he’ll leave the country if he loses
• Keith Olbermann: Rudy caught with his Borat hanging out
• The Late Show: The White House’s cut of Трамп’s “60 Minutes” interview (exclusive preview)
• The Daily Show: How to spot a Трамп lie
• Bruce W. Nelson: We’re rounding the corner on COVID
• Vox: How America could lose its allies
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rants—My favorite people are vulnerable seniors, etc.
• Seth Meyers: The Dotard leaks embarrassing 60 minutes interview before second debate
• Lauren Mayer: If I wrote a song (every time Трамп said something stupid):

• Full Frontal: The worst four years ever
• The Late Show: Instagram gods respond to Dotard Трамп, Jr.
• Trevor: Трамп’s first term trips abroad
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Reading with Mangy”, lesson one, the “TR” and “UMP” sounds.
• Stephen: Cruelty was the plan—Chilling news about the human toll of Трамп’s child separation policy
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп stuff
• Seth Meyers: Трамп storms out of 60 minutes interview, attacks Lesley Stahl
• WaPo: The Dotard keeps taking credit for Obama’s Veterans Choice Act
• Bill Maher: From Russia with yuck
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reviews HBOs 537 Votes
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп ain’t as tall as he seems
• The Late Show: Learn to dance like The Dotard Трамп
• Roy Wood Jr.: Трамп’s top 100 scandals—100 to 76
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s errand boy Rudy Guliani is exposing “corruption”…

Mainers for Accountable Leadership: Susan Collins’ final sct

Seth Meyers: Back in my day….

Vox: Why American public transit is so bad

Superspreading ТрампPlague:

• The Daily Show: The Dotard doesn’t understand corners
• John Oliver: The World Health Organization
• Lauren Mayer: https://youtu.be/dFS5-fiSTEc:
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s TIRED of covid? I’M tired of him KILLING us
• The Late Show: The Dotard dances with Covid-19 and the Grim Reaper
• Bill Maher: New Words for 2020
• Noah Lindquist and friends: Wear a mask:

• Samantha Bee: Declaration of incompetence
• Our Cartoon President: The Dotard declares war on COVID-19
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп attacks Fauci as COVID cases spike
• Stephen: Joy Reid notes that the pandemic has magnified Трамп’s worst qualities and ruined the GOP’s political fortunes
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is firing Dr. Fauci
• Jimmy Dore: Chris Christie got COVID!
• Trevor: The week in coronavirus

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Trevor: Sen. Elizabeth Warren on fighting Republicans’ threats to democracy

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 361 electoral votes	Mean of 177 electoral votes

With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.

My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.

Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.

Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.

Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:

[Read more…]

Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies

Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• The Daily Show: Why you should help save democracy by working the polls
• Lauren Mayer: Suburban women
• SNL: VP fly debate
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard explains that his Town Hall crushed Joe Biden’s Town Hall
• Meidas Touch: Don’t gamble on Трамп
• The Daily Show: Who will get the Blackwote: Трамп or Biden?
• Founders Sing: Karma goes round in circles:

• Parody Project: The Spooky Mens Chorale—Vote the bastards out
• Trevor: The Dotard obsesses over Hunter Biden and a looney-tune Bin Laden conspiracy
• Our Cartoon President: First post-COVID rally
• Roll Call: 2020 Projection—Biden and Democrats poised to win big
• Meidas Touch: The Quaranteenies—Game
• Songify The News: The cancelled debate, but we un-cancelled it
• Bill Maher: Dueling grandpas
• Comedy Central: What voting is like in a nudist colony
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп & Biden’s dueling town halls
• Lauren Mayer: Landslide:

• College Humor: Why I’m voting for opposite man
• Keith Olbermann: Trump admits he’s losing; “Unmask-gate” fizzles
• Trevor: Anita Hill on why she chose to endorse Joe Biden
• Meidas Touch: Believe in America

SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.

Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.

Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday

The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:

• Bruce W. Nelson: A Russian message to Трамп
• Keith Olbermann: GOP Senator Sasse gives a huge “fuck you” to The Dotard
• Meidas Touch: Трамп the grave dancer
• WaPo: The Dotard pushed phony ‘unmasking’ conspiracy theory for years
• Don Winslow Films: #MemoToTrump
• Now This: How government agencies are failing under Трамп
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s voter fraud, sexy superspreading & Biden-bashing
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп dance
• Demi Lovato: Commander in Chief:

• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpAttacksBlackWomen
• Keith Olbermann: Mitt Romney is an enabler of Трамп’s terrorism
• Really American: Трамп projection
• Meidas Touch: Bye Tiffany
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hating can be fine
• Americans for Decency: Save America—Radical right terror must go
• The Daily Show: The Трамп administration’s first term corruption
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп! Get Fauci’s face off your SCUMBAG TV ADS

Vox: How the next president could change policing.

The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate

Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.

TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:

• SNL Weekend Update: Dr. Wenowdis on Трамп’s televised health exam
• Meidas Touch: “Don’t Worry” | #AmericaNeedsHealthcare
• Bruce W. Nelson: Don’t let COVID dominate your life
• Jimmy Kimmel: Trump is only MENTALLY ill now
• Really American: Blame Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп ranting press conference becomes hallucination musical with the governors demanding more PPE!:

• Larry Wilmore: Трамп is a virus and disinformation superspreader. Will America finally drop him over it?
• Francesca Fiorentini: Should the U.S. invade…itself?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Droplets of love in the air at Трамп’s return rally
• Bill Maher: Fareed Zakaria on ten lessons for the post-pandemic world
• Trevor: Why Трамп is threatening to kiss you
• SNL: Enough is enough!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills—The travel ban hoax
• Trevor: Did Трамп’s rich friends get a heads-up about coronavirus?
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп owned stock in regeneron
• Roy Zimmerman and Molly Bauckham: Feed the birds (Трамп Pence and MAGA):

• Songbird: Pursuing a vaccination
• Jimmy Kimmel: Senator Elizabeth Warren on Trump’s COVID Failure,
• WaPo: Superspreader events explained
• Trevor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo on New York’s pandemic response in hindsight
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп leaves the hospital

The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.

Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman

SCOTUS Tragedy:

• The Daily Show: Трамп’s first term SCOTUS appointments
• Mark Fiore: Conservative court relief
• Now This: Amy Coney Barrett dodges questions
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Nut pick
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to day one of the Amy Coney Barrett hearings
• Founders Sing: ROE, ROE, ROE V. WADE—RBG reappears to confront Amy about her true intentions!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793

Trevor: Columbus Day

Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Songify the News (with Blondie): One heartbeat away – Kamala vs. Pence
• Americans for Decency: Kamala the MAGA slayer (& friends)
• The Daily Show: Mail-in voting dos and don’ts
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп refuses to do a virtual debate with Joe Biden!!!
• Our Cartoon President: COVID-positive Cartoon Трамп watches the VP debate
• Roy Zimmerman and Laura Love: My vote, my voice, my right:

• Seth Meyers: Hey! Kamala Harris and Mike Pence’s 2020 VP debate
• Robert Riech: Four key takeaways from the Harris-Pence VP debate
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jaime Harrison on Lindsey Graham’s hypocrisy & helping the community
• Meidas Touch: Трамп devastation
• Stephen: Washington, confused about voting in the 2020 election? “Better know a ballot” is here to help!
• SNL: Presidential debate
• The Late Show: Taylor Swift backs Joe Biden in her new single
• Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence prepares for his debate against Sen. Kamala Harris
• The Daily Show: Scowls, smirks, eye rolls
• Randy Rainbow with Patti LuPone: If the Dotard got fired:

• John Oliver: Election 2020
• Trevor: Трамп refuses a virtual debate
• Now This: Fact-checking the 2020 Vice Presidential debate
• Seth Meyers: Трамп has election meltdown as White House covers up COVID-19 outbreak
• Larry Wilmore: What the fuck, undecided voters?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Pence Harris VP Debate
• Jonathan Mann: Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking
• Really American: Man of the moment
• Roy Wood, Jr: Are harsher vote-by-mail laws really just voter suppression?
• The Foundation Singers: The fly song:

• Lauren Mayer: Has Mike Pence ever let a woman finish?
• Trevor: Pence’s fly and Harris’s expressions steal the debate
• Meidas Touch: I’m speaking
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence discusses his new friend, debate fly
• Seth Meyers: Late night’s October surprise predictions

Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.

Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:

• Stephen: Like flies on what?
• Americans for Decency: Donald and miracles
• Robert Reich: How you can stop America’s slide toward tyranny
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks the Nobel Peace Prize
• Amber Ruffin: I’ve got $20 more tThan the President:

• Americans for Decency: Donald and smoke—Coronavirus, wildfires, and protests
• The Daily Show: Won’t you help an American President in need?
• Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Pence’s debate performance, “He’s pretty comfortable telling a total lie”
• Bruce W. Nelson: No one tells me what to do
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s holy grail just disappeared
• Robert Reich: Empathy for the world’s least empathetic person?
• The Daily Show: Melania Трамп Hates Christmas
• The Parody Project: End of the world:

• Meidas Touch: Трамп is not America
• Sarah Cooper: How to drugs
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп furious over plot to kidnap Michigan governor!!
• Americans for Decency: Abuzz with GOP hypocrisy—Flying under the radar with Mike Pence
• Stephen: John Brennan—Трамп’s failure to denounce White supremacist groups has fueled their rise
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s plan to nullify the election

Vox: How US schools punish Black kids

Amber Ruffin: The week in review

Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments

Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:

• Stephen: Трамп expected to resume hosting indoor mask-free campaign rallies
• Trevor: The Dotard has coronavirus & the White House does damage control
• Bruce W. Nelson: A get well song for The Dotard
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп updates the nation from Walter Reed on his car ride
• Jonathan Mann: Getting COVID to own the libs!
• Americans for Decency: Donald and Delirium—Walter Reed melodrama
• Mark Fiore: Get well soon, Mr. President
• Foundation Singers: I’m so sorry (Трамп apologizes!)
• Meidas Touch: Трамп Virus
• Now This: GOP lawmakers are possibly spreading COVID-19
• Seth Meyers: Трамп leaves hospital, says “Don’t be afraid of COVID”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп announces a cure for COVID
• Jimmy Kimmel: Superspreader Трамп is ready to rally again!
• Stephen’s Zoom interview with Трамп
• The Late Show: Secret Service agent irate over Трамп’s joyride
• James Corden: Maybe I’m Immune’:

• Stephen: Трамп sends stocks tumbling with hostage-style threat to block covid stimulus package negotiations
• Seth Meyers with a corona-monologue
• Jimmy Kimmel: Dotard’s Трампumphant return to COVID infested White House
• The Late Show: Is Трамп tripping on Dexamethasone?
• Trevor: Трамп is home and back to comparing COVID to the flu
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsPatientZero
• Stephen: John Brennan—A reckless President taking covid drugs is a dangerous cocktail for the White House
• The Late Show: Achoober—The ride sharing service for contagious covid patients
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on no COVID relief bill
• Seth Meyers: Трамп stages maskless photo op while still infected with COVID-19
• John Di Domenico: Трамп 4am post hospital press conference on steroids
• Jordan Klepper: Трамп’s COVID rally
• Americans for Decency: Donald and losing—Let us remember
• Keith Olbermann: Worst Person No. 1. The Dotard Трамп—Mass murderer who will kill 150,000 more of us this year
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song of Hope (Hicks)
• Stephen: Трамп says “Don’t let it dominate your life,” returns to the White House still infected with covid
• act.tv: Трамп has a loaded COVID gun
• SNL: Weekend Update
• Trevor: Coronavirus spreads rapidly through the White House
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s inner covid monologue as he returns to the White House
• Jonathan Mann: Is Tucker Carlson ok?
• Seth Meyers: Bob Woodward says Трамп was confident he would not catch COVID-19
• The Late Show: Трамп’s new roommate, covid-19!
• Francesca Fiorentini: How COVID is weaponized to kill public schools

Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?

Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.