Democratic Governors	Republican Governors
Mean of 23 seats	Mean of 27 seats

There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.

After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.

Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 377 electoral votes	Mean of 161 electoral votes

My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:

1. A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
2. A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
3. A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
4. A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%

Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:

1. Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
2. Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
3. Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
4. In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
5. Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
6. Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
7. In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

I suppose it is about time for some analyses of the 2020 races for the U.S. Senate. As with the presidential state head-to-head polls, I’ve been collecting senate head-to-head polls for senate races. We now know the general election candidates in all races except the Georgia 2 special election and the Louisiana senate race, but we’ll be assuming that the Republican incumbents will eventually win these races.

Although these analyses are for each state in which there is a senatorial election, we will aggregate the results to look at the probability that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans or flip to the Democrats. Of course, the third possibility is a 50-50 tie, in which case the outcome of the presidential election determines which party controls the Senate. Given the strength of former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump, I’ll assume ties go to the Democrat, although occasionally I’ll report both ways. Perhaps later on, I’ll change the reporting to systematically include results each way.

As of this afternoon, I’ve collected 361 head-to-head polls in the senate races. For some state there are many polls, like the 66 polls for the N.C. senate race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham. For other states, there are not so many polls—like zero polls in Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Nebraska, among others. Idaho and Illinois have only one poll each, and New Jersey only has two polls. Clearly, some states have few, or no, polls because the race isn’t particularly competitive. States with many polls are either competitive, or are interesting for some other reason—perhaps there is a gubernatorial race or it is an important toss-up state in the presidential race. For North Carolina, both are true. When I have no polling in a race, the incumbent wins the state for each simulated election.

Even with 361 polls, I will always use a subset of the most current polls. Right now, my rule is to use polls taken over the past month, but that window may tighten as Nov. 3 approaches.

Let’s get on with it! After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 97,022 times, there were 2,936 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 42 times. By this analysis, if the election was held today, Democrats would have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate. If we have a Republican Vice President, the probability drops to 97% for Democrats and 3% for Republicans.

There is only one state likely to go from Democrat to Republican, and that is Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) has led in all 7 polls ever taken in this race, and he is likely to unseat Sen. Doug Jones.

There are three states likely to flip from Republican to Democrat: Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina. In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has led Sen. Martha McSally (R) in all 15 polls taken in the past month. He has led in almost all of the 66 polls taken in this race going back to early last year.

In Colorado, former Governor John Hickenlooper has led in all eleven polls taken in this race going back to Aug 2019. Many of the polls showed a double digit lead for Hickenlooper.

And then there is North Carolina, where Cunningham (D) has led Tillis (R) in all 21 polls taken in the last month—one of the polls is a near tie with Cunningham up 322 “votes” to 320. We have to go back 43 polls, all the way back to June to find a poll where Tillis leads Cunningham, but only by a single “vote”: 474 to 473. Cunningham leads in a majority of older polls going back to June of 2019.

In the toss-up category, we have a surprising number of states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In Alaska, the most recent poll is tied, but the two older polls had Sen Dan Sullivan (R) leading Al Gross (D). The most recent poll in Iowa is also a tie, but going back to June, Sen Joni Ernst (R) has only carried two polls while her challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) has led in 10 polls.

In Kansas there is also a tie in the most recent poll. But Roger Marshall (R) has led Barbara Bollier (D) by 1% margins in the three polls taken since June. Mississippi is a surprise tie. Sen Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is being challenged by Mike Espy (D). The only current poll has Hyde-Smith up by 1%. There were 5 previous polls, all taken before June, where Hyde-Smith had a solid lead. We definitely need more polling in Mississippi!

South Carolina is one of the most interesting of the senate races. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is being challenged by Jamie Harrison. Graham led Harrison through March, but since then, there have been three ties, Graham has had (mostly) small leads in 5 polls, and Harrison has had a small lead in one of the most recent polls.

Finally, the Georgia race between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) is close enough to merit mention. Perdue has led in the most recent five polls, but there were two ties, and Ossoff led in one poll before that, all within the last month. Perdue has the momentum for now, and the simulated results give him a 84% probability of keeping his seat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Trevor: No officers indicted for the shooting of Breonna Taylor.

Conan reads a Christmas tale for 2020

WaPo: The origins of policing in America.

Biden-Harris 2020:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys Playboy reporter and will fight election results.
• Stephen: Biden’s social team pounces on Трамп’s “You’ll never see me again” promise
• Full Frontal: Predicting the Republican’s 2020 October surprise
• Bill Maher: Трамп’s not leaving
• Trevor: How Трамп is planning on winning the election no matter what
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel knows how to get Трамп to leave. Marry him!
• Francesca Fiorentini: Will anti-Blackness win another election?

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks Barack Obama’s voter registration day message
• Jonathan Mann: Dotard Трамп is gonna steal the election
• Seth Meyers: Трамп refuses to commit to peaceful transition of power
• Conan: Michelle Obama—Every vote absolutely matters
• Trevor: The Dotard refuses to guarantee a peaceful transfer of power
• Jimmy Fallon: Chelsea Clinton calls 2020 the most important election of our lifetime
• Full Frontal: Mitt Romney is not a hero
• Bill Maher: Bernie Sanders says, “Listen to what Трамп is saying.”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Трамп’s plan to steal the election
• Stephen: Трамп wants to undermine your faith in the election so you don’t vote him out
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is bribing senior citizens for votes!
• The Late Show: Worried Трамп won’t leave the White House if he loses the election?

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News Anchor Trace Gallagher fails live math and geography tests within 3 minutes.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Treasonweasels and Despot Wannabes:

• Mark Fiore: The hypocritical oath
• John Di Domenico: Трамп BLASTS the soup nazi, MELTS DOWN and REFUSES to wear a mask! No mask no soup!
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Трамп gets crate trained
• VICE News: The Dotard is obsession with genetic superiority and bloodlines
• Bruce W. Nelson: “F-U-T-R-M-P” (Filling Unstructured Time Recording Mangy’s Piano):

• The Late Show: What makes New York City an anarchist jurisdiction?
• Desi Lydic checks in on her Трамп-obsessed uncle Lou Dobbs
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s crazy summer
• SongBird: Exploding trees
• Stephen: The Dotard Трамп really is America’s racist uncle, administration sources confirm
• Now This: Трамп’s first term by the numbers
• J-L Cauvin: Trump crushes Obamacare with his America First Healthcare Plan
• Bruce W. Nelson: A salute to men with tiny dix
• Stephen: “Not untruthful…incompetent”—Rep. Katie Porter on Трамп officials when they testify before Congress

Conan: QAnon News Break—Santa Claus edition

Americans for Decency: Lying liars lie—Ted Snooze, Inc.

Vox: How US abortion policy targets the poor.

RIP RBG:

• The Late Show: Lindsey Graham’s words used against him
• Conan: Michelle Obama remembers justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Trevor: The inspiring life of Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Jimmy Fallon remembers Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Samantha Bee: How we can protect the notorious legacy of RBG
• WaPo: Who is Amy Coney Barrett, Трамп’s expected Supreme Court nominee?
• Seth Meyers: Ways to delay a Supreme Court confirmation vote
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard announces his five finalists to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg!
• Stephen: Saying goodbye to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an American hero
• Trevor: The political war over Justice Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat
• The Late Show: The hypocrisy hippo wastes his time calling out Ted Cruz
• Jimmy Fallon: So you want to be a Supreme Court Justice?
• The Foundation Singers: I am Ruth!:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп and GOP rush to fill Ginsburg’s seat despite 2016 hypocrisy
• Roll Call: Is there enough time to confirm a Supreme Court nominee by November?
• VICE News: How the Senate power play for RBG’s SCOTUS seat could end
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп selects Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court
• Jonathan Mann: Give the people a voice in filling this vacancy
• Trevor with Dahlia Lithwick: Is the Supreme Court broken?
• The Late Show: Dumbass detective investigates Трамп’s RBG claim
• Bruce W. Nelson: On the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 1

Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 2

The ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Dr. Anthony Fauci hulks out on Rand Paul
• Trevor: Dr. Anthony Fauci getting politics out of public health
• Now This: Dr. Fauci vs. Rand Paul on coronavirus “herd immunity”
• Seth Meyers: Трамп says COVID “affects virtually nobody” as death toll hits 200,000
• The Parody Project: Lazin’ on a COVID afternoon:

• Trevor asks Bob Woodward Why he kept Трамп’s coronavirus comments secret
• Lauren Mayer: C.D.C.
• Stephen: Трамп’s disregard for human life has resulted in 200K deaths and CDC guidance that can’t be trusted
• Trevor: The Pandemmy Awards winners
• Seth Meyers: Other mail-in voting excuses

Dulcé Sloan: What is the monetary cost of police brutality? Billions.

Conan: Get a healthy dose of reality with Realitrex

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 380 electoral votes	Mean of 158 electoral votes

Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

• 369 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
• 360 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
• 413 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
• 389 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
• 407 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 375 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 397 electoral votes with a 1.68% probability
• 385 electoral votes with a 1.66% probability
• 406 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
• 395 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability

The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).

[Read more…]

act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.

Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.

Biden-Harris 2020:

• Trevor: Biden’s “Despacito” outreach & Трамп’s disastrous town hall
• Now This: Former Pence staffer slams Трамп and endorses Biden
• Randy Rainbow: I won’t vote Трамп!

• WaPo: Democrats flipped the House in 2018. Can they keep it in 2020?
• The Daily Show: Трамп Eviscerates Трамп
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 2
• Meidas Touch: Bring back hope
• Stephen: Трамп lied to undecided voters at Philadelphia town hall, then shared a doctored video of Joe Biden
• Foundation Singers: If you love this country:

• Seth Meyers: Stacey Abrams has a plan to make sure every vote counts
• Trevor: Sen. Jon Tester on how to get rural voters to support Biden
• Samantha Bee: Work those poles

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.

Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

RIP RBG:

• Now This: Legendary Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87
• WaPo: Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87—Remembering her life and career
• New York Times: Remembering Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Meidas Touch: Demand decency.
• Really American: No new justices
• Bill Maher on RGB
• WaPo: What Senate Republicans have said about filling a Supreme Court vacancy
• Now This: Joe Biden on filling RBG’s Supreme Court Seat

WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.

Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.

Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable

The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s many contradictions are revealed on Bob Woodward’s audio tapes
• Trevor: Author Mychal Denzel Smith on how to recover from Трамп
• Stephen: Трамп says “I do” to Joe Rogan’s debate challenge, but will he accept Stephen’s counter offer?
• John Di Domenico: Exploding trees, science doesn’t know and wet, deep water in the Pacific
• act.tv: FAUX News really does run Трамп and his presidency…and then he goes golfing
• Trevor: Трамп disowns blue states & AG Barr says slavery is back
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп knows more than science
• The Protest Films: No more Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard ends the 1619 Project!
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп called out by Jack Frost
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House press briefing
• The Late Show: A concussed panda replaces Steve Doocy on FAUX & Friends
• WaPo: How Bill Barr has misled the public under Трамп
• Daily Show: Don Трамп the science-ish guy: Wildfires
• The Late Show: Secret recipe revealed for Трамп’s dry-aged health care bill
• SongBird: The ten Трамп commandments (A Трамп parody)
• Stephen: Трамп denies climate science in fire-scarred California, echoing his downplaying of COVID-19
• Meidas Touch: Pedo Трамп
• The Late Show: Real Americans challenge The Dotard Трамп with questions we all wish we could ask
• Jimmy Fallon: New episode of “Talk like Трамп”
• The Daily Show: What was The Dotard asked about?
• PrioritiesUSA: “America first”
• Conan: The Трамп “Book of the Day” club.
• Mark Fiore: Denialism—Not just for climate change anymore
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп lets Woodward know he’s a horrible guy:

• Meidas Touch: The Трамп depression—The economy does better under the Democrats
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп wishes a happy Rosh Hashanah
• WaPo: How Трамп repeatedly disparages climate science
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s ABC town hall was filled with lies
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп Jr. inspires Middle Ages torture device
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff—Americans are not paying attention to atrocities happening in our immigration system.

Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls

Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds indoor Nevada rally as pandemic and wildfires rage
• Now This: The Dotard suggests COVID-19 deaths in blue states shouldn’t count
• Really American: Трамп wants to infect us
• Bill Maher: Herd mentality
• Francesca Fiorentini: American individualism is killing us
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is enraged over Barack Obama’s new book
• Roll Call: Four takeaways from Redfield’s COVID-19 testimony
• Trevor: Travel in the time of coronavirus
• Meidas Touch: Трамп lied 200K died
• Bruce W. Nelson: Keep calm and covid on! (Трамп’s most profound thoughts to avoid panicking)
• Lewis Black’s survival guide for New Yorkers stuck in suburbia
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп on vaccine, and covid-19 deaths
• Lauren Mayer: Herd mentality:

• Really American: Трамп hid the truth
• Seth Meyers: Трамп blames “blue states” for COVID deaths
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys covid in Nevada speech
• Stephen: Трамп blames blue states for covid death rate while Bill Barr compares lockdowns to slavery
• Jonathan Mann: Anti-mask rally in St. George, Utah (remix)
• Meidas Touch: Experts vs. The Dotard—Трамп is a one trick phony
• Trevor: Трамп’s illegal indoor rally & a COVID-positive college party
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoons Eric & Don Jr. invent a COVID-19 vaccine
• PrioritiesUSA: Responsibility

BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes

Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes	Mean of 149 electoral votes

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Bill Maher: Side with teacher.

Roy Zimmerman: : I approve this message.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Anyone But That S.O.B. (sneaky old blob) A song of nonsupport.
• Samantha Bee: Sam’s election day countdown
• The New Yorker: How national crises influenced three American elections
• Meidas Touch: America needs Biden
• Now This: Kamala Harris and Barack Obama talk life on the campaign trail

Samantha Bee: Why police aren’t protecting our kids in school.

Vox: How America can leave fossil fuels behind, in one chart

Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda on Nixon ordering her arrest and civil disobedience

The Dotard Трамп and Other Slackers, Prevaricators and Incompetents:

• Bruce W. Nelson: If DeJoy goes to de jail
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on his Nobel Peace Prize nomination
• Mark Fiore: The Трамп troops
• Seth Meyers: Трамп lashes out over report that he insulted fallen soldiers
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence says Трамп LOVES the troops
• Parody Project: Battle of Lake Travis:

• Trevor: Peter Strzok on is book about Трамп
• John Di Domenico: I like boaters who don’t sink, press briefing
• Lauren Mayer: Rock bottom has a basement
• Vote Vets: Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (Ret.) responds to Трамп calling general officers & admirals “fucking pussies”
• Robert Reich: The real threat to law and order
• Amber Ruffin: What Трамп has done for the military
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys Bob Woodward
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Ballad of the Lake Travis Regatta
• Trevor: Трамп and FAUX News double down on COVID cover-up defense
• Bill Maher: Peter Strzok on “Compromised”
• The Democrats: Sacrifice
• James Corden: Трамп’s Twitter weirdness
• J-L Cauvin: Devastated Dotard Трамп blames Bob Woodward and MBS!!!
• Meidas Touch: DJT has NPD—Трамп’s malignant narcissism exposed:

• Really American: Трамп hates our troops.
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп practices his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech
• VoteVets: POW
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп insults Barack Obama impersonator!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s radical right
• SongBird: Vlad guy—A Трамп parody
• Bruce W. Nelson: Dear Kim Jong-un (A Трамп love song)
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Roy Zimmerman: Defenders of Marriage (performed in 2017).

Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney really likes eggs!

ТрампPlague:

• Roy Wood, Jr.: How big tobacco turns a pandemic into profit
• Now This: Трамп’s bizarre mask psychopathology
• WaPo: The Dotard downplayed the coronavirus 31 times in the first three months of 2020
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s politicization of the COVID-19 vaccine
• VoteVets: Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (Ret.) responds to Трамп failing to lead on COVID 19
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain doesn’t think COVID killed him!
• Priorities USA: Cover-up
• Now This: Woodward audio leak—Трамп knowingly downplayed “deadly” coronavirus
• Trevor: How soon is too soon for a coronavirus vaccine?
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп lied to public about coronavirus
• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds unhinged North Carolina rally without coronavirus precautions
• Samantha Bee: Is it vaccine season, yet?
• Our Cartoon President: Leaked cartoon Трамп Woodward tapes:

• Meidas Touch: Pretend President—Трамп downplayed the pandemic
• Minute Physics: Why masks work BETTER than you’d think
• Vox: How the pandemic distorted time
• Broke Boy: Трамп tapes (Analyzing Bob Woodward audio)
• Really American: Трамп doesn’t care
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the GOP rocked by bombshell Woodward tapes
• WaPo: Republicans dodge Woodward-Трамп revelations
• Now This: Трамп supporters on why they didn’t wear masks to rally
• Priorities USA: Mask
• Bruce W. Nelson: Cabin fever
• Allana Harkin: Quarantine Questions—Back-to-school edition

Trevor: Jane Fonda—Civil disobedience in the name of climate change.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Samantha Bee: How marginalizing women’s health created a market for pseudoscience products.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Now This: Трамп’s RNC speech had one false statements every 56 seconds
• WaPo: Трамп promises to end the lawlessness that he promised to end in 2016
• The Late Show: Biden impresses Presidential Gnome
• Conan: The Republican party’s rising stars
• br0keb0i: Biden proves he will destroy weak Dotard in the debates
• Full Frontal: Election night simulation—What happens in a contested election?
• Now This: Joe Biden destroys Трамп’s campaign of law and order
• Meidas Touch: I’m voting for Joe
• Courtney Jaye: I will be voting
• Robert Reich reacts to the RNC
• Now This: Biden tells Трамп to get off Twitter and start negotiating.

Jimmy Dore: Putin takes credit for defeating Kennedy dynasty!

The Dotard Трамп and Other Pimps, Grifters, and Corrupt Bastards:

• Jordan Klepper: How holy is The Dotard Трамп?
The Dotard declares war on soup!!!
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Dotard Трамп cannot play the guitar!
• Meidas Touch: Draft dodger Don hates our troops
• br0keb0i: Weak Dotard shows new signs of incompetence
• The Late Show: William Shakespeare describes Tucker Carlson
• Parody Project: Arrest this scary gentleman (A tale of the Postmaster)

• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant—Rioters, looters, agitators, anarchists & thugs on ANTIFA Airlines flight to Portland
• WaPo: How Трамп’s reported military comments mirror his previous remarks
• Really American: Twitter CENSORS Polluter-in-chief
• Now This: AG Barr defends Трамп after suggesting supporters vote twice
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп offered Sarah Huckabee Sanders to Kim Jong Un!
• Bruce W. Nelson: As long as the band plays, I’ve gotta dance
• Trevor: Трамп’s great USPS war
• Meidas Touch: Трамп terrorism
• Don Winslow Films: An open letter to Republicans
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain is still tweeting!
• br0keb0i: Трамп strokes getting worse (mental health deteriorating)
• Lauren Mayer: Occam’s razor
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп demands loyalty from Brett Kavanaugh!
• Bruce W. Nelson: What Трамп has taught to me (a patriotic tribute)
• Really American: In Трамп’s America
• BuzzFeed: How K-Pop stans uutsmarted The Dotard
• Now This: Трамп calls fallen U.S. troops “losers” and “suckers”
• VoteVets: Losing!
• Foundation Singers: Dumb American:

• The Late Show: Don Jr. erupts on FAUX News
• Bruce W. Nelson: “What will people say of Dotard Трамп when he is gone?”
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s mental unhealth with Dr. Bandy Lee
• Now This: Retired Army Major General Paul Eaton slams Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard attacks and insults the troops
• VoteVets: Gold Stars

Now This: Pastor speaks out on voter suppression in the Hispanic community

Racism in America

• John Oliver: RNC 2020 & Kenosha
• Now This: Who is Laura Loomer? Narrated by PJ Evans.
• Vox: What Black Lives Matter means to an 11-year-old
• Samantha Bee: The police and white militias Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The police and white militias Pt. 2
• Really American: Violent Трамп
• Jonathan Mann: Трамп soup remix
• Now This: 2020 DNC v. RNC on racial justice

Robert Reich: How Big Money corrupts our politics (and how to fix it).

ТрампPlague:

• WaPo: What is phase 3, and how close are we to a covid-19 vaccine?
• Now This: Трамп pushes COVID-19 conspiracy theory
• Vice News: Experts tell us what we do and don’t know about COVID-19
• Roll Call: People without insurance could pay for a vaccine more than once
• Mark Fiore: The doctor is so in
• Trevor: Coronavirus updates
• The New York Times: How to stop the next pandemic

The New Yorker: Greenland thrives after Трамп tried to buy the island

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Late Show: The Jerry Falwell Jr. scandal is giving pool boys a bad name.

Samantha Bee: The Republican party’s fall look—Fringe!

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Trevor: The RNC is already insane
• The Late Show: Kimberly Guilfoyle is crowned Miss Fascism 2020
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reviews Mike Pence’s RNC 2020 speech
• James Corden: What an uplifting first night at the RNC!
• br0keb0i: Kimberly Guilfoyle down with the sickness
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Biden will bring America back”
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence gets personal at the 2020 RNC
• Full Frontal: RNC 2016 rewind—Allana talks to attendees about misogyny
• Trevor: Pence packs an impressive amount of bullshit into his RNC speech
• Now This: Some of the biggest lies of the RNC
• Meidas Touch: End the misery (The misery index)
• The Late Show: The Трамп family sings the ABCs of the RNC
• Jaboukie Young-White: This 19-year-old went full MAGA
• Daily Show: RNC night 1—Here’s how you will die
• Stephen: RNC Day 1
• The Late Show: Great moments in convention history—Clint Eastwood’s 2012 RNC speech chair claps back
• Trevor: Getting to know Kamala Harris
• Full Frontal: RNC 2016 rewind–Mike helps free the beast
• Jimmy Dore: Mike Pompeo preparing to run for president in 2024!:

• Bruce W. Nelson: KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE! (The RNC’s new sonic weapon)
• Now This: Terror! Mayhem! Disaster! Four nights of RNC fear-mongering
• Trevor: Melania, Tiffany and Eric take the RNC stage on day 2
• The Late Show: A penguin hatches every time Melania says something that is definitely not true
• VoteVets: Secret weapon Jill
• Trevor: Трамп’s Boring-Ass RNC Speech
• Stephen: Melania Трамп headlines RNC night 2
• Full Frontal reacts to the RNC
• Mark Fiore: Nominating Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reviews Трамп at the RNC
• Meidas Touch: Demand change
• The Daily Show: Are Republicans talking about the DNC or RNC?
• Trevor: The RNC’s appeal to Black voters & Don Jr.’s “Imagine” speech
• Now This: RNC speakers take fear-mongering to next level on third night
• Lauren Mayer: Flatter the Führer
• The Late Show: Melania Трамп previews her RNC Rose Garden speech
• Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week—RNC edition
• Stephen: I didn’t watch the RNC tonight, and I feel great about it
• VoteVets: The first….
• Songify the News: Father, father:

• Full Frontal: Allana Harkin reacts to the DNC
• br0keb0i: The American dream—Kids in cages
• Now This: False Planned Parenthood claims from RNC 2020
• The Late Show: Jesus crashes Mike Pence’s RNC speech
• Jonathan Mann: The best is yet to come (Kimberly Guilfoyle RNC remix)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Melania’s RNC speech
• schmoyoho: Do it for corn pop—Joe Biden
• Trevor and Desi Lydic: FAUX News praises Biden’s DNC speech (and criticizes Kamala Harris’s speech)!
• The Late Show: America Endgame (RNC edition)
• Now This: Fact checking Mike Pence’s RNC speech
• The Daily Show: Asking Republicans, “When was America great?”
• Stephen: After four nights of nonsense at the RNC, we’re getting off this emotional roller coaster
• The Late Show: Tooning Out The News RNC highlights

Trevor: What is QAnon?

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Fake Christian of the week—Jerry Falwell, Jr.

Bill Maher: American carnage

The Dotard Трамп and Other Grifters, Liars, and Cheaters:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s a sick man
• Really American: Трамп talks Трамп
• Bill Maher: New Rule—#FreeUpTheMail
• The Daily Show: The Dotard Трамп—“The greatest President of all time in history”
• John Di Domenico: Трамп is FURIOUS over Maryanne Трамп’s leaked audio, calling him a self-centered, unprincipled, liar
• Bruce W. Nelson: I just can’t wait until the date Трамп’s party turns to dust
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpsZombieArmy
• Trevor: Трамп’s sister caught talking shit & Трамп bullies the FDA
• thejuicemedia: Honest government ad:

• Really American: Трамп hires the “best”
• Robert Reich: The Post Office crisis to come
• Trevor: The Lincoln Project’s Stuart Stevens on the evolution of the GOP under Трамп
• Don Winslow Films: #TheRealKellyanneConway
• The Late Show: Great moments in convention history—Трамп’s dramatic entrance at the 2016 RNC
• Really American: Polluter in chief
• br0keb0i: The Fourth Reich—Трамп’s dictatorship
• Meidas Touch: Bye Eric—A total phony
• J-L Cauvin: How The Dotard Трамп met Melania—An RNC romance
• Foundation Singers: We are the worst—Sing/swing remix
• Bruce W. Nelson: I like Трамп:

• Jonathan Mann: Uh oh, Melania Трамп ruined the Rose Garden
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Daddy prays for Eric every night”
• Stephen: Jerry Falwell Jr.’s link to Трамп is far more troubling than his sex scandal
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s 40 biggest broken promises revealed
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Jim Gaffigan’s Twitter attacks!
• John Oliver: The Dotard’s stupid fucking border wall
• The Late Show: Two of The Dotard Трамп’s sisters speak out about the president
• Meidas Touch: Трамп failed—The results speak for themselves

MoveOn: Thousands rally to save the Post Office.

Jordan Klepper: What happened to the Federal Election Commission?

Racism in America:

• Now This: Tucker Carlson defends accused Kenosha shooter
• Sky News: Thousands echo historic civil rights March on Washington
• Brave New Films: Suppressed 2020—The fight to vote (long lines in minority neighborhoods)
• Stephen: Shame on them! Nancy Pelosi on the Senate’s refusal to pass the George Floyd Justice & Policing Act
• Now This: What are your rights when filming ICE arrests?
• Samantha Bee: The Amazing Disgrace—Our country’s racist symbols Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The Amazing Disgrace—Our country’s racist symbols Pt. 2
• Now This: BLM protesters confront Sen. Rand Paul over justice for Breonna Taylor
• Trevor: Why did the police shoot Jacob Blake?
• Vox: When voting rights didn’t protect all women

Brave New Films: Poll worker emergency—Young people needed • Election 2020.

The Daily Show: America’s got suppression.

ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Covid loves college
• Really American: Tucker dunks the Dotard
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills—Seniors aren’t safe in Трамп’s America
• Vox: Why face masks became political in the US
• Really American: Not THEIR children
• Full Frontal: Pandemic Video Diaries—Conventions 2020, “Expect the worst”

Samantha Bee: What it means to be progressive with Pramila Jayapal.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

John Oliver: Juries.

Lauren Mayer and Carla Ulbrich: Stand up and act!

Robert Reich: What do Russia and the United States have in common?

The Biden-Harris 2020:

• The Late Show: America—Endgame
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys the DNC and Joe Biden!
• Mark Fiore: Why change horses mid-stream
• Samantha Bee: Expect the worst from this election season, pt. 1
• Don Winslow Films: #FromRosaToKamala
• Trevor: The DNC kicks off & Michelle Obama brings down the house
• Randy Rainbow: KAMALA!

• Stephen: Barack Obama’s fiery, emotional speech sets the stage For Historic Kamala Harris VP Nomination
• Eleven Films: The #BlueWave2020 trailer
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Michelle Obama and night 1 of the Democratic National Convention
• br0keb0i: The interview that ruined Pence
• The Late Show: Dr. Destruction crashes Kamala’s DNC speech
• Robert Reich: On November 3, we defeat The Dotard Трамп and Mitch McConnell
• Samantha Bee: Expect the worst from this election season, pt. 2
• Priorities USAWreck
• Meidas Touch: Had enough Трамп?
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and FAUX try to distract from the DNC
• Trevor: The DNC kick-off & Трамп’s boat parade
• Stephen: Monologue after day 1 of the Democratic National Convention
• Trevor: Why you shouldn’t be asking if Kamala Harris is “Black enough”
• VoteVets: A real commander-in-chief
• br0keb0i: Joe Biden’s speech at the 2020 DNC best moment
• Sheryl Crow: Woman in the White House
• Trevor: DNC Day 2
• Stephen: Monologue after day 2 of the Democratic National Convention
• Now This: Joe Biden and the Violence Against Women Act
• Foundation Singers: It is what it is:

• The Late Show: John Legend previews the DNC
• The Daily Show: FAUX News is right—Any idiot can read off a teleprompter
• Here’s why you can’t sit out this election
• Trevor: DNC Day 3
• Stephen: DNC Day 4—Joe Biden states his purpose

Dulcé Sloan: Who did the 19th Amendment really give voting rights to?

Bill Maher: Think like a true QAnon.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Liars and Miscreants:

• The Daily Show: Americans fight for the post office and Obama speaks out
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s course—Driving us in the wrong direction
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the GOP are trying to destroy the Post Office
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп unveils the four main themes for the RNC
• Bruce W. Nelson: 25 great ways to fire Трамп
• br0keb0i: The nightmare of the Трамп presidency
• Really American: Republican confessions
• Jimmy Dore: Трамп’s presidential debate preparation with Chris Christie!
• Lauren Mayer: Save the USPS
• Stephen: Amb. Susan Rice says the American people need to “call B.S.” on Трамп’s attack on the postal service
• Bruce W. Nelson: Goodyear, Трамп, and explaining his general lack of sensitivity
• The Late Show: Трамп messed with the wrong tire guys
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Negro leagues
• Really American: Трамп swamped America
• FOD: Трамп talks social media
• Amber Ruffin shares what Трамп has done for women:

• Don Winslow Films: #MeetMotherPence
• Meidas Touch: Tick tock, Трамп
• Now This: Трамп praises followers of crazy “QAnon” conspiracy theory
• The Late Show: Exclusive footage of Steve Bannon’s perp walk
• Bruce W. Nelson: On Steve Bannon and conservatives today
• Mother Jones: That time Steve Bannon accused the Clintons of corruption and money laundering
• VoteVets: Postmaster General Louis DeJoy must resign or be fired
• Seth Meyers: Ex-Трамп adviser Steve Bannon arrested and charged with fraud
• br0keb0i: The Dotard Трамп wants to stop you from voting
• Really American: Rigger in chief
• Meidas Touch: Divorce Трамп!
• Stephen: Трамп courts conspiracy theorists from the White House podium, offering to “save the world”
• Trevor: DNC, Day 4

WaPo: Why she votes—12 female leaders share their stories of suffrage.

Robert Reich: Why Democrats and Republicans need to unite against the oligarchy

Samantha Bee: There’s a race problem in journalism.

ТрампPlague:

• br0keb0i: Jared Kushner calls coronavirus deaths a success story
• Jimmy Dore: My Pillow CEO urges people to take poison (to cure coronavirus)!
• Priorities USA: Life and death
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s “law and order” campaign is a distraction
• br0keb0i: My Pillow guy and the fake doctors of The Dotard Трамп

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Trevor: Veronica Chambers—Reframing the story of the 19th Amendment

Brave New Films: Alec Baldwin says “Make America wote again”.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Randy Rainbow: CHRISTOPHER CUOMO! (A special birthday BONUS!)

Now This: Breaking down New York AG’s lawsuit against the NRA

Biden—Harris 2020:

• The Late Show: The Vice Presidential condolence card collection
• Desi Lydic: Who is Kamala Harris?
• Meidas Touch: Biden Harris 2020.
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence has no fear of Kamala Harris!!!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and FAUX struggle to attack Sen. Kamala Harris
• Now This: Трамп promotes racist birther lie about Kamala Harris
• The Late Show: Трамп deploys female candidate detector for Kamala
• Priorities USA: Her movement
• Stephen: Kamala Harris hits Трамп where it hurts—the economy
• Trevor: Kamala Harris is Biden’s VP pick
• Meidas Touch: Bye, Hannity.
• John Di DomenicoТрамп rant—Rips Kamala Harris as a liar, a phony & a nasty, nasty woman who doesn’t like puppies!
• Bruce W. Nelson: Nasty women
• Move On: Kamala Harris picked as Joe Biden’s running mate
• Stephen: Alex Wagner and Mark McKinnon on what Kamala Harris’s candidacy means for the Democratic Party
• Trevor: Kamala Harris—The person, the politician…and the chef?
• Jimmy Fallon: Trump calls Kamala Harris “nasty”
• Meidas Touch: Prosecute him—Kamala Harris makes the case against Трамп
• Now This: Cory Booker reacts to Kamala Harris VP pick.
• The Late Show: Biden picks Kamala despite no geriatric medical degree
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп issues statement about Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
• br0keb0i: Трамп’s “nasty woman” comments are hurting his campaign
• Lauren Mayer: Kamala!
• Trevor: Трамп and FAUX News struggle to attack Kamala
• Stephen: Sen. Kamala Harris breaks new ground as Joe Biden’s running mate.

Roy Wood, Jr.: Citizen’s arrest—How is this still a law?

Trevor: Pramila Jayapal on political change, Трамп & the 2020 election

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Liars, Criminals, and Brown-nosers:

• br0keb0iТрамп calls his son an “environmentalist”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп Bible study—Book of Genesis
• Stephen: April Ryan’s unfiltered take on Kayleigh McEnany, Kanye West’s candidacy, and our “racist-in-chief.”
• Really American: Трамп klills USPS
• Sarah Cooper hosting Kimmel’s show does a “crazy president” political monologue
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп, bankrupt again!
• Now This: Трамп admits to defunding USPS to stop mail-in votes
• Trevor: Трамп attacks vote-by-mail and the U.S. Postal Service
• The Late Show: Mary Todd Lincoln doesn’t want Трамп anywhere near Gettysburg
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard issues statement about his brother Robert Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп 1AM Rant—Biden hates God, guns, yo-semites, thighland, the Bible, energy, but loves Chyna!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп signs sham executive orders and takes credit for Obamacare
• Bruce W. Nelson: Dotard Трамп wants to be added to Mount Rushmore:

• The Late Show: What if a chef added condiments to Peter Navarro every time he lied?
• J-L Cauvin: Donald Трамп defends executive orders and Jeffrey Epstein
• Vote Vets: The Dotard goes to war on the Post Office
• Trevor: Prof. Timothy Snyder on maintaining democracy in times of tyranny
• John Di Domenico: Trump cancels election, suspends Constitution, becomes President for life!
• br0keb0i: Трамп USPS mail-in hypocrisy
• Really American: Rescue our votes
• The Late Show: Need some extra power in your shower? We’ve got you covered!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s plan to sabotage the post office before the election
• Stephen: Michael Cohen teases a bombshell book while Трамп admits he’s slowing USPS to tilt the election
• Trevor: Trump plainly admits plan to limit mail-in voting
• J-L Cauvin: Michael Cohen gives a shower of golden praise to The Dotard
• Bruce W. Nelson: The new monuments to Dotard Трамп
• Priorties USA: C’mon man
• Bad Lip Reading: Трамп interview:

• Really American: Progressives for Biden
• Seth Meyers and Amber Ruffin on what Трамп has done for Black people
• Stephen: As his popularity plummets, Трамп teases battleground state location for RNC speech
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп delivers the Gettysburg address

Brave New Films: Suppressed 2020—The fight to vote.

Seth Meyers: John Berman made the Electoral College sexy

ТрампPlague:

• Robert Reich: How billionaires are getting rich off COVID
• Trevor: Трамп makes a mess of COVID relief & eyes a spot on Rushmore
• Mark Fiore: Art of the executive order
• Meidas Touch: Трамп emptied stadiums
• Stephen: Трамп’s terrifying math—A “tiny fraction of deaths” is acceptable among school kids….
• Robert Reich: Betsy DeVos’ deadly plan for reopening schools
• Jaboukie Young-White: It’s time for scientists to absolutely lose their shit!
• Stephen: Europe discovers ugly truths about America, as 250,000 bikers gather in Sturgis despite covid risk
• The Daily Show: What was Трамп asked about?

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Meidas Touch: Vote proud—Enough is enough!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

John Oliver: American history

The Daily Show: Our best FAUX News mashups.

Foundation Singers: Good trouble (in honor of John Lewis).

The Democrats: Commemorating 55 years of the Voting Rights Act.

Roll Call: Top 10 most vulnerable senators.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Failed Liars and Grifters:

• Meidas Touch: Трамп has no healthcare plan
• Seth Meyers: Трамп twice mispronounces Yosemite and other mostly political observations
• The Daily Show: This Presidential candidate is not well
• Scottacular: Boy Трамп interviewed by Axios
• Priorties USA: Winning?
• Meidas Touch: Трамп donors—Don’t be Don’s next con
• Seth Meyers: Трамп investigated for fraud and says coronavirus will “go away”
• Priorties USA: Racist Трамп
• Parody Project: Failed as the Chief:

• Don Winslow Films: #ConsequencesForТрамп
• Vice News: Meet the guy who planned Трамп’s crackdown in Portland
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп will protect God from Joe Biden!!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп hoaxed America
• Bill Maher: The incredible sulk
• Mrs. Betty Bowers: Ivanka, daddy’s little empathizer!
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп’s train-wreck interview with Jonathan Swan on HBO
• Now This: Robert Reich debunks Трамп’s economic claims
• Mark Fiore: MAGA Mail!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп rushes back to FAUX after disastrous Axios interview
• Meidas Touch: Vote out racism
• br0keb0i: PLUMP FICTION—Cancel Трамп song
• J-L Cauvin and Reggie Brown: The Dotard Трамп wishes President Obama a happy birthday!
• >Lauren Mayer: The way Pence looks at Трамп
• New York Times: He predicted a Трамп win in 2016. What’s his forecast for 2020?
• Really American: Biblical idiot
• Jonathan Mann: Yo, Semites! [Klezmer remix]:

• WaPo: What Трамп’s executive order means for TikTok
• Now This: Who is Sebastian Gorka? Narrated by comedian Shalewa Sharpe
• Vice News: Pop quiz! Can you pass Трамп’s mental acuity test?
• Priorities USAPolice state
• Meidas Touch: #RightFromWrong—The rule of law or Трамп?
• Brave New Films: Трамп vs. Трамп—Hire / Fire
• Now This: Трамп’s mind-numbing interview with Axios

Really American: Republicans are lying about Social Security.

Robert Reich: How Mitch McConnell’s Republicans are destroying America.

Brave New Films: Why are so many women in prison?.

Roll Call: Top 10 most vulnerable House members

Rachel Maddow: : NY AG lawsuit paints vivid picture of how NRA membership money is spent.

ТрампPlague:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп forms super team
• Now This: Grieving widow writes blunt obituary after losing husband to COVID-19
• Mother Jones: The Dotard twists coronavirus realities by slamming Fauci, CNN, China, and Democrats
• Daily Show: Smart poop—Collecting data from our crap to fight COVID
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain calls from the afterlife.
• John Di Domenico: Трамп EPIC rant—Nobody likes me, Fires Fauci, hires Dr. Stella Immanuel w/alien DNA & demon sperm
• Now This: School principal records COVID-19 parody of ‘Can’t touch this’
• Trevor: The great mask war
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп challenges the punisher
• Vice News: How Mississippi became the COVID-19 hotspot
• Seth Meyers: Jared Kushner’s failed testing plan (and Трамп threatens to ban TikTok)
• Now This: Georgia student suspended for photo of crowded school
• Matt Buechele: School open plan.
• The Daily Show: Parodies in the time of coronavirus
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence is thrilled Трамп isn’t banning Tik Tok (yet)!
• John Di Domenico: Трамп Rants about interview, “I want a Do Over with more charts & graphs & no Jonathan Swan!
• Now This: Teacher regrets 2016 Трамп vote as schools reopen during COVID-19 epidemic

Jimmy Fallon: Political news of the day.

Bruce W. Nelson: Non-political song.

Now This: NY AG Letitia James files suit to dissolve NRA.

Foundation Singers: Ghislaine Maxwell’s in the slammer:

Really American: Protect our votes

Roll Call: “We’re so used to it”—Lawmakers talk sexism in Congress

Full Frontal Rewind: Black Lives Matter.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Seth Meyers: Sen. Kamala Harris explains the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.

Trevor: Florida news (LeBron helps ex-felons vote & The Dotard axes convention.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Now This: Immigrant children illegally detained by ICE in Texas Hotel.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Fascists and Dictator Wannabes:

• Meidas Touch: Wall against Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant & top 5 reasons to be re-elected in 2020! (Part 1)
• Really American: Lying Трамп
• Seth Meyers: With less than 100 days until the election, Трамп and the GOP are desperate
• Sarah Cooper: How to tick tock
• Meidas Touch: Трамп grifts, you die
• Трамп The Internet: Трамп reads Stormy Daniels
• Roy Zimmerman: “Vote him away #2 (The liar Tweets tonight)”:

• br0keb0i: RAGING BULLSHIT—Cancel Трамп song
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s worst attacks on working Americans
• Trevor: Трамп wants to delay the election & stamp out affordable housing
• Bruce W. Nelson: Donald J, Go Away
• Eleven Films: The dangerous ones
• Jimmy Dore: Mike Pompeo tries to buy Greenland for Трамп!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп rolling Back environmental regulations
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard REJECTS the Yankees
• Meidas Touch: Evict Трамп from the White House
• Chris Cuomo on Трамп’s comment “nobody likes me”
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpsEvilPlan
• The Lincoln Project: Wake up
• The Juice: Honest government ad—A message from the White House:

• Really American: Rep. Jayapal got it right!
• Meidas Touch: Nobody likes Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is FURIOUS about Michelle Obama’s new podcast
• VoteVets: Forget
• Seth: Трамп suggests delaying the election, which he can’t do
• Trevor: Are Трамп secret police leaving Portland?
• Meidas Touch: Трамп mails it in
• Jonathan Mann: Fascist fucks

Trevor: Breonna Taylor—Who she was, how she died, & why justice is overdue.

John Oliver: China and Uighurs.

Now This: Pres. Obama delivers powerful eulogy at John Lewis’ funeral.

Meidas Touch: Are you better off?:

Trevor: Sen. Tom Cotton opposes 1619 project-inspired history curriculum

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп praises “demon sperm” doctor who pushed hydroxychloroquine
• Now This: Dr. Fauci shuts down GOP Rep. trying to play scientist
• Mark Fiore: The Twitter virus task force
• Trevor: GOP COVID relief package & Трамп’s plan to protect his DC hotel
• Really American: Трамп hates science
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills Texas
• Trevor: Coronavirus ramps up in the U.S. and claims Herman Cain
• Robert Reich: 5 key demands for the new coronavirus bill
• Now This: Трамп praises doctor pushing alien DNA medical theories
• Lewis Black: Outdoor dining rules
• Seth Meyers: Sen. Kamala Harris wants to freeze evictions and foreclosures
• Trevor: Coronanews

Move On: Your vote is power.

Lauren Mayer: Voter fraud is fraud.

Desi Lydic: Dr. David Campt about how white people can fight racism in their own social circles.

The Daily Show: FAUX News on deploying federal agents 2020 vs. 2014.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 378 electoral votes	Mean of 160 electoral votes

My last analysis was about three weeks ago, and former Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump by 375 to 163 electoral votes. After adding about 150 new polls and undertaking 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 378 to Trump’s 160 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

I decided to do an extended set of simulated elections every seven days over the past year, where each simulation includes polls from the preceding month (FAQ). The resulting plot shows that Trump has been losing ground in the electoral college totals since early April.

For the simulated elections for today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ]:
[Read more…]