It’s about damn time! Within the last 24 hours, we have finally gotten the first new state polls of 2012, putting Obama head-to-head with Romney.
The first new one is a PPP poll from North Carolina that has Obama leading Romney by +1% (46% to 45%). The second poll, taken in Florida by Quinnipiac, isn’t quite as nice for Obama who trails Romney by -3% (43% to 46%). Obama led in the previous Florida poll taken in early December, by +7.
Obama | Romney |
78.5% probability of winning | 21.5% probability of winning |
Mean of 294 electoral votes | Mean of 244 electoral votes |
In this analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 78,482 times and Romney won 21,518 times (including the 996 ties). Obama received (on average) 294 to Romney’s 244 electoral votes. The results suggest that in an election held now, Obama would have a 78.5% probability of winning and Romney a 21.5% probability of winning.
Obama’s chances drop from 96% in the previous analysis.