NH Primary Open Thread!

Well, I made it to the Montlake Alehouse, and I hear the Mittster has already been declared the winner. The real battle is for second place.

Discuss.

5:12: Early returns suggest that the Newtster is in 4th or 5th place. What a tumble. Just yesterday the polls suggested he was in a three-way tie for second place.

5:16: Here were the last few polls from NH (via Real Clear Politics) to establish some benchmarks.

  • Rasmussen: Romney 37%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 15%, Santorum 13%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 1%
  • Suffolk: Romney 37%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 16%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 9%, Perry 1%
  • WMUR/UNH: Romney 41%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 11%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%
  • Suffolk: Romney 33%, Paul 20%, Huntsman 13%, Santorum 10%, Gingrich 11%, Perry 1%
  • PPP: Romney 35%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 16%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 1%

5:22: It looks like the current score is: Romney ~35%, ~Paul 25%

5:29: The Mittster speaks. It sure sounds like a “Hope and Change” speech to me…but, you know, full of Mitt.

5:31: “President Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial”. Where the fuck does he get this bullmitt?!?

5:34: Mitt claims that Obama lost the tripple-A rating. I recall S&P literally singled out the uncertainty of the process in Congress for the downgrade. And we know what party in Congress led to the uncertainty.

5:36: During the 2008 campaign season, McCain found himself on the losing end of the issues as the economy crashed. Now, the Mittster seems to be campaigning against Obama on a platform of “restoring America”, being “hopeful for the future”, “best days ahead”, etc.

But given the recent acceleration of the recovery (that began in mid-2009), I cannot help but wonder if Mitt finds himself on the wrong side of the issues in 2012, but sort of the converse of the 2008 problem: an increasingly hopeful America being told that things suck and can be better. I think this is what happened during Reagan’s re-election year.

5:43: In the comment thread, Michael give the link to the AP scorecard here. Thanks Michael.

I’m listening to stuff on NPR on the radio, because all the teevees have basketball on them right now.

5:45: I love that the last 5 polls all have Rick Perry at 1% and the AP results have Perry at…1%.

5:46: Jon Huntsman is a disappointing 3rd place with 17% (so far). It is hard to see any reason for him to stay in the race. He is not competitive in any race that I can think of until Super Tuesday.

5:49: Here is the score so far:

  • Romney 35%
  • Paul 25%
  • Huntsman 17%
  • Gingrich 10%
  • Santorum 10%
  • Perry 1%

6:16: (*snicker*) Ron Paul said, “Intellectual Revolution.”

6:46: There are too many people here…I haven’t been able to listen to the coverage. Damn these social venues!

7:13: With 66 percent of the vote in (for the Republicans):

  • Romney 38%
  • Paul 23%
  • Huntsman 17%
  • Gingrich 10%
  • Santorum 10%
  • Perry 1%

Mitt gets a solid double-digit lead, which means it is all but over for the Republican primary contest.

10:00: With 95% reporting….

  • Romney 39%
  • Paul 23%
  • Huntsman 17%
  • Gingrich 9%
  • Santorum 9%
  • Perry 1%

Gingrich and Santorum fall into the single digits.

Comments

  1. 1

    Michael spews:

    No real surprise there. Iowa’s caucus goers are 41% rural and heavy on the evangelical side. New Hampshire’s both less rural and less holy roller.

  2. 3

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    Well, it looks like Santorum‘s 15 minutes of driving the clown car has come to an its end.

    In other news Willard, King of Bain wins again!

    Oh, and let’s thank Newt’s vengeance. The Citizens United SuperPac sh*t is going to hit the fan in SC. Hell hath no furry like a Republican grifter scorned.

    Probably most of you don’t know nor care, but Willard (and his 5 grandmothers) come from Mexican roots. Yep, the Romney family being a persecuted Mormon family fled to Mexico way back when.

    The upshot of all of this is that Mormons in Mexico have long claimed that Quetzalcoatl was was actually Jesus Christ. And although all Republicans agree with our constitutional right to freedom of religion, Mayan Jeebus don’t go over so well with our countryman in South Carolina.

    Newt’s warriors are going to robo call the f*ck out of that in SC. And Newt’s got the King of Bain air war going already.

    Hope Obama remembered to send Newt a Christmas card, or whatever Secret Mooslim Kenyan born presidents send. ;-)

  3. 5

    Michael spews:

    @4
    Because that’s for the little people. Same reason Willard supported the Viet Nam War and then got a different and went to live in a mansion in Paris instead of going to fight.

  4. 7

    spews:

    MikeBoyScout,

    “Anybody know why none of Willard’s 5 sons have ever served in the military?”

    Oh…man, their teeth are waaaaaay too white for that!

  5. 8

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Hmmm, not to overlooked is the fact that in the Democratic primary Obama gets only 81% of the vote, with write-ins taking 10% and a slew of nobodies taking 1% each, including a candidate named “Vermin Supreme” — now tell me that’s a real name and not a prank …

  6. 9

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Sure, Romney’s getting 37% of the GOP primary vote, but that means 63% are voting for someone else. He’s not what I’d call a real popular guy.

  7. 10

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    @7 Darryl,
    That can’t be right.
    During the lifetime of the Romney boys (de facto red blooded patriotic Americans) we have fought in Panama, Iraq, Kosovo, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

    Surely a man who wants to be President and plans to make us the unchallenged military power inculcated his own sons about the importance of service to the nation? Cripes, what about the War on Terrorism?

  8. 11

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    The standard Republican response to complaints about the failure of our economic system to provide jobs for all who need and want jobs is —

    “Get a job!”

    But that’s easier said than done when our free-market capitalist system produces only 1 job for every 4.2 persons who want and need a job — and that’s an improvement.

    ““As the job-seekers ratio shows, what’s happening is not that millions of workers have become lazy, unskilled, or unproductive; it is that there are not enough jobs available,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute.”

    That sounds to me like the system, not the unemployed, should be blamed for our high unemployment.

    http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.co.....port-shows

  9. 12

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    As of right now, Romney has almost as many votes as Paul and Huntsman put together, so that looks like a Romney victory to me.

    Romney still looks like the frontrunner and probable nominee. He’ll go into the general election bashing Obama at every turn.

    But a campaign long on badmouthing his opponent and short on specific proposals won’t resonate with voters if the economy keeps improving — as it very likely well.

    It’s looking more and more like Obama will get a second term; the question is, what will he do with it?

  10. 13

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    @9 With really no competition in 2012 Willard’s less than 40% tonight is marginally better than his 2008 showing at 32%.

  11. 14

    spews:

    MikeBoyScout @ 10,

    Yeah…but they might bruise a finger or chip a tooth if they were in the military!!!!

    In the 2008 election, this question came up, and as I recall, there was some embarrassing response like they were Serving America by helping get their father elected.

  12. 16

    MikeBoyScout spews:


    Although the polls made pretty good predictions of the election outcome tonight, forecasting turnout is harder. So far it looks like rumors of a record Republican turnout in New Hampshire were greatly exaggerated.

    With 85 of 301 precincts reporting, 52,191 voters have cast a ballot in the Republican primary so far. That projects to about 185,000 votes statewide, as compared with about 240,000 votes in the Republican primary in 2008.

    The drop-off in turnout looks worse for Republicans since a higher fraction of voters – about half this year, compared to 37 percent in 2008 – are independents. That means that turnout among registered Republicans could alone be off by nearly 40 percent from 2008.

    Nate Silver

    New Hampshire, like Iowa, is loaded with communists!

  13. 17

    Michael spews:

    @8

    Vermin Supreme is an American performance artist, anarchist and activist who is known for his being a satirical candidate in various local, state, and national elections in the United States.[1][2][3] Supreme is known for wearing a boot-shaped hat and carrying a large toothbrush.[4] He claims that if elected President of the United States he will pass a law requiring people to brush their teeth.[5][6][7][1] He also campaigned in 2012 on a platform of zombie apocalypse awareness, and promises a pony for every American.[8] Supreme claims to mock the political system.[9][1] In 2011 he participated in the ongoing Occupy Boston protests.[10]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermin_Supreme

    New Hampshire’s an interesting place full of interesting characters. One of my cousins was a Big Corporate Capitalist in Boston with a weekend place in New Hampshire for about 20 years. A couple years back he quit his job, sold his house and condo, and became a commercial fisherman in Thailand. That seems to be a rather standard issue story for folks in New Hampshire.

  14. 19

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    What it means?

    Caveat: November is a political lifetime away

    The Good News: New Hampshire turn out shows for the 2nd time in one week that, in general, Republicans are not at all enthused with their selection of candidates, and specifically Republicans are totally underwhelmed with the candidate Citizen’s United has given them, Willard.
    The political operatives in the Obama administration see the same thing I do. Obama’s re-election is looking to be a cake walk much like Clinton’s in 1996. The issue becomes how to capitalize on this in the House and, most importantly, in the Senate races.

    The Bad News: The lame candidacy of Willard, King of Bain, Romney likely leads to the Obama campaign playing it safe. There’s a huge opportunity to go for the jugular here and to straighten our country out from the damage Republicans have inflicted upon us. Politicians are by nature cautious and Obama has not in 3 years yet shown the killer instinct that his base would walk on broken glass to support.

  15. 23

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    I take back what I said @22.

    Given Willard’s lack luster results, and the even more sad competition thus far, I’d like to officially announce the Draft Fred Thompson, Reverse GOP Nomination campaign. America needs a better empty suit corporate shill than Willard. And Fred’s our man.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkg8IH7e_6U

  16. 24

    spews:

    It’s scary that Rick Perry is staying in – after a 1 percent showing in NH..

    Oh well, supposedly he’ll play better in SC (huh, after IA right?) – but those right wingers in SC can sniff out a phony with the best of them..

    He has to be THEIR kind of phony.. Like Dumbya was after Papa Karl executed one of his nasty whispering campaigns.

    Perry can’t sell shit to a dirt farmer.

  17. 26

    Michael spews:

    One of the most frank and honest talks on mental illness that I’ve ever heard. At any given time about 20% of Americans have some sort of mental illness. Many of those 20% don’t even know they’re sick, others do know, but don’t what to do about it or are afraid to come out about it.

    Mental Illness and Why The Skeptic Community Should Give a Shit, JT Eberhard Skepticon 4
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI-YvrHZVvk

  18. 29

    Michael spews:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01.....asury.html
    Fed Turns Over $77 Billion in Profits to the Treasury
    WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that it contributed $76.9 billion in profits to the Treasury Department last year, slightly less than its record 2010 transfer but much more than in any other previous year.

    But, but, I thought the Democrats were leading us down the wrong path?

  19. 31

    Michael spews:

    In the non-surprise of the night.

    For Huntsman, who staked everything on the Granite State, the results presaged rough waters ahead. The former Utah governor dominated among the 17% of voters opposed to the Tea Party and the 12% of voters satisfied with the Obama administration.
    http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/10/.....?hpt=hp_t1

  20. 32

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Revisiting Torture

    I’m reading an enlightening article in The Atlantic about the Inquisition. What it boils down to is the Busheviks got their “enhanced interrogation” techniques straight out of manuals written in the 14th and 15th century by ecclesiastical types who specialized in getting detainees to congress to committing heresy.

    Just when you thought humanity has progressed beyond the torture chambers of the 1300s, you run into this:

    “The Inquisition, with its stipulation that torture and interrogation not jeopardize life or cause irreparable harm, actually set a more rigorous standard than some proponents of torture insist on now. The 21st century’s Ad extirpanda is the so-called Bybee memo, issued by the Justice Department in 2002 (and later revised). In it, the Bush administration put forth a very narrow definition, arguing that for an action to be deemed torture, it must produce suffering “equivalent in intensity to the pain accompanying serious physical injury, such as organ failure, impairment of bodily function, or even death.” To place this in perspective: the administration’s threshold for when an act of torture begins was the point at which the Inquisition stipulated that it must stop.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/mag.....ce/8838/2/

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Yep, Bush and his henchlings succeeded — in a short eight years — of taking us six hundred and fifty years backward.

  21. 33

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    What Happened To U.S. Manufacturing Jobs

    “A historical chart of U.S. manufacturing employment shows steady growth from the end of the Depression until the early 1980s, when the number of jobs drops a little. Then things stay largely flat until about 1999. After that, the numbers simply collapse. In the 10 years ending in 2009, factories shed workers so fast that they erased almost all the gains of the previous 70 years; roughly one out of every three manufacturing jobs — about 6 million in total — disappeared. About as many people work in manufacturing now as did at the end of the Depression, even though the American population is more than twice as large today.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/mag.....rica/8844/

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: I have a question: If the focus of a society shifts from usefully employing all of its members to supporting the consumption of a few of its members, of what use is that society to the rest?

  22. 34

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Here’s an interesting article that will not only acquaint you with an important school of thought in international relations, but also argues why Ron Paul’s brand of isolationism is naive and sophomoric.

    tlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/01/why-john-j-mearsheimer-is-right-about-some-things/8839/1/

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Caution, this reading is only for intellectual types with IQs above higher than my average bowling score who are capable of thoughtful comprehension and critical analysis. In other words, you trolls are excused from this reading assignment, because your reading this article won’t do you (or the rest of us) any good.

  23. 35

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Factoid: China’s military spending has grown from $17 billion in 2001 to $150 billion in 2009.

  24. 37

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    A 32-year-old Iranian nuclear scientist was killed by a car bomb in Tehran today, according to MSNBC. Needless to say, Iran is accusing Israel of bumping the guy off, but there is absolutely no hard evidence of that. Israel may be motivated to send a message to people working in Iran’s nuclear bomb program, but that’s pure speculation. Shit, it could have been natural causes, for all anybody knows. Maybe the bomb had nothing to do with it and the guy had a heart attack — who really knows?

  25. 38

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    The world sure has changed since I was a little bunny.

    “A former finance director at the Girl Scout Council of Greater New York on Tuesday admitted stealing more than $300,000 from the organization. Yaasmin Hooey, 35, … used the cash for cruises, cosmetic laser procedures and a … diamond ring. She also spent $18,000 in bars and restaurants, according to the District Attorney’s Office.”

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_n.....red-311000

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Who would have ever dreamed that someone would embezzle from the Girl Scouts? Is nothing sacred anymore? Maybe our culture puts too much emphasis on money, to the point where people are willing to do anything to get it, at any cost to themselves or society. That needs to change. We need to get the old-fashioned values back.

  26. 39

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    “Periodically smoking marijuana doesn’t appear to hurt lung capacity, the largest study ever conducted on pot smokers has found.”

    http://vitals.msnbc.msn.com/_n.....tudy-shows

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: I’m pretty sure our friend SJ will take issue with this — even if this study’s finding is well supported (and I don’t have the medical training to evaluate that), it doesn’t mean pot smoking isn’t physically harmful in other ways. So I’ll let people who know more about the subject than I do address this. All I’m doing is throwing it out there for discussion.

  27. 40

    Upton spews:

    @39 “it doesn’t mean pot smoking isn’t physically harmful in other ways.”

    What are you suggesting? If, and I’m going with the study, periodically smoking pot isn’t damaging to your lungs, in what other way would it be physically harmful?

  28. 41

    Deathfrogg spews:

    @ 40

    As a longtime regular user, I can say that it does interfere with mathematical cognation. My uncle, a Physicist and old hippie that teaches it at a University in Oregon, has instructed me to avoid using weed at all if I am studying math. His take on it is that it seems to slow down the processes of computation, that computer that your brain is that can calculate and absorb mathematical concepts. He won’t smoke at all if he has to do research and publish. So I haven’t been smoking it in months. It has helped a lot, but it also denies me a bit of that introspection that I would like to have for my other classes, the communications, the English etc. It is a trade-off.

    I need to concentrate on the math, it has always been my weakest point, and the thing that has prevented me from entering University before now. I don’t trust myself to absorb Math as well as some of the other folks, and it is a critical aspect of the higher education process.

  29. 42

    Zotz sez: It's the SCOTUS, stupid! spews:

    2009 Study Affirms Smoked Marijuana Protects Against Cancer.

    In 1974, University of Virginia researchers discovered something very unlikely. Cannabis, banned in the United States in 1937, and further demonized by the Nixon administration in 1968, had an unexpected property: it inhibited the growth of lung cancer cells.

    What is even more troubling is that the United States Government actually did a secret follow up-study on the Virginia findings, in the mid ’90’s. When it only served to confirm the results of the 1974 research, and showed that THC (one of the main active ingredient in cannabis – and the one the government loves to hate), when administered to mice, protected them against malignancy, true to form, our government attempted to bury the results.

    Now, this month in Cancer Prevention Research Journal one can find a studydemonstrating that chronic, long term of cannabis actually reduces the incidence of head and neck cancer. Specifically:

    “10 to 20 years of marijuana use was associated with a significantly reduced risk of HNSCC” [head and neck squamous cell carcinoma].

  30. 43

    Zotz sez: It's the SCOTUS, stupid! spews:

    10 Pot Studies Government Wished it Had Never Funded

    10) MARIJUANA USE HAS NO EFFECT ON MORTALITY:…

    9) HEAVY MARIJUANA USE AS A YOUNG ADULT WON’T RUIN YOUR LIFE:…

    8) THE “GATEWAY EFFECT” MAY BE A MIRAGE:…

    7) PROHIBITION DOESN’T WORK (PART I):…

    6) PROHIBITION DOESN’T WORK (PART II):…

    5) OOPS, MARIJUANA MAY PREVENT CANCER (PART I):…

    4) OOPS, MARIJUANA MAY PREVENT CANCER, (PART II):…

    3) OOPS, MARIJUANA MAY PREVENT CANCER (PART III):…

    2) OOPS, MARIJUANA MAY PREVENT CANCER (PART IV):…

    1) MARIJUANA DOES HAVE MEDICAL VALUE:…

  31. 44

    Michael spews:

    The urban/rural break down of last nights primary is up over at Daily Yonder.

    Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won all across New Hampshire Tuesday, but he did particularly well in urban counties. Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman did better in rural counties than in urban ones.
    http://www.dailyyonder.com/urb.....01/11/3677

  32. 45

    rhp6033 spews:

    It’s kind of Ironic that of the remanining nominees, the various factions of the Republican Party are rather well represented:

    Rick Perry & John Huntsman – the financial/establishment “rich white guys” arm of the Republican Party, which has led the party for decades either from in front or behind the scenes. Huntsman hasn’t got a prayer in S. Carolina or the rest of the South, so he might as well get out of the race now – his 17% third-place showing is about as good as it’s going to get. He will run out of money and still have no momentum by the time the nomination process gets back to friendlier states. If Romney can pick up Huntsman’s endorsement and supporters, he will be hard for any of the other Republicans to beat.

    Newt Gingrich – the rhetorical blow-hard wing whos’ only purpose is to stay in power and get rich in the process. They will say or do anything to get elected, and make up a big part of the Republican leadership in Congress. If the Democrates offered more possibilities in that regard, they would switch parties in a heartbeat – and deny that they had ever been a Republican. But his flip-flopping, typical of that brand of Republicanism, didn’t help him in N. Hamshire – people seem to have dismissed his attempts to appear “populist” and his attacks on Romney’s history at Bain Capital.

    Rick Santorum & Rick Perry – the Evangelical wing of the Republican Party. This wing isn’t going to vote for a Mormon. Between them they couldn’t get a total of more than 12% of the New Hampshire vote. One of them needs to drop out, and Perry’s the logical one to do so. It will be interesting to see how much bigger a share these guys will get in S. Carolina, that will be a gauge of that element of the Republican Party’s strength in the Bible Belt.

    Ron Paul – the libertarian wing of the party, previously represented by Barry Goldwater and his ilk. They hate the federal government and everything it’s done in the past century and a half, but don’t buy into the Republican social agenda. At least, they are ideologically consistent. I think, however, that Ron Paul has reached his zenith – expect that Romney’s Super-Pacs will emphasize the crazier aspects of his personality and agenda.

    So what’s missing? The Tea Party, of course. Michele Bachmann’s “suspension” of her campaign left them with no candidate. This is where the Tea Party’s mixed agenda and motivations have hurt it, because it’s supporters have scattered among the libertarians (Ron Paul) and the Evangelicals (Santorum and Perry).

  33. 48

    ArtFart spews:

    “If the focus of a society shifts from usefully employing all of its members to supporting the consumption of a few of its members, of what use is that society to the rest?”

    In fact, Roger…the ultimate question is whether such a “society” truly constitutes a society at all.

  34. 49

    spews:

    Wow! A wingnut wet dream!

    According to the reports the employees had asked bosses for a raise but in response were told to either quit with compensation or keep their jobs at their usual salary.

    Most workers apparently decided to leave, but the company did not hand over the money as promised.

    So…

    workers who manufacture XBox consoles took to a factory roof and threatened bosses with mass suicide

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.u.....sb=2135938

    See the difference between Chicom-land and here is that the Chicoms sees this kind of thing as bad PR..

    Here the attitude among the right wing:

    Stop whining and jump!

    Microsoft is said to be “investigating the incident”.