Here are a few things that came out over the weekend (i.e. too late for the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza).
WA Senate Democrat’s Week in Review podcast:
[audio:http://www.sdc.wa.gov/podcast/ITL_2012_7.mp3]
Obama’s Weekly Address: Extending the Payroll Tax Cut for the Middle Class:
Arianna Huffington talks women’s issues on SNL.
Bill Maher on Republican’s divided America:
What the Koch Brothers say on-line but won’t say under oath.
Bashir: With Congressional approval at 10%, Republicans intensify anti-Obama attacks.
It began five years ago today:
Jennifer Granholm: Michigan rebounds thanks to ‘active’ leadership.
Bill Maher: New Rules.
White House: Science fair.
The Delicious G.O.P. Primary
White House: West Wing Week.
Mark Fiore: The heart and mind-o-matic.
ONN: Panel analyzes Obama’s furious, profanity-filled rant at nation.
Thom: Are politicians now SuperPAC puppets?
The Week in Marriage Equality:
Newsy: Pelosi’s “stop Colbert” spoof ad goes viral.
Pap: How the GOP war on workers backfired.
Lobbyist poses as anti-union mechanic in Superbowl advertisement.
Maddow: The absurdity of GOP legislators rallying against ideas they previously supported:
Andrew Breitbart totally loses it at Occupy protesters.
Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.
Contraceptive Choice:
An interview with Jay Inslee.
Alyona: Time for a national popular vote?
Hannity’s Bizarre Claim:
Lawrence O’Donnell: Buffoon Donald Trump thinks endorsing Romney guarantees him a position in Willard’s cabinet!.
Pres. Obama’s record on jobs:
Ed: Update on the Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) scandal.
The CPAC Funny Farm:
Sam Seder: State Sen. Constance Johnson (D-Oklahoma City) on he amendment to a Wingnut personhood bill .
Ann Telnaes: Russia and China reject U.N. resolution condemning Syria.
Obama and the marshmallow launcher.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Obama announces “an accommodation” on the birth control issue:
The “accommodation” is reasonable, and The Catholic Health Association (which was considered subversive by some Bishops during the 2009 health care debate) is “very pleased with the White House announcement”.
The original issue is complete bullshit—yet another unholy liaison between religious extremists and right wing political opportunists. As MoJo’s Nick Baumann points out, much of the policy dates back to an Equal Employment Opportunity Commission ruling back in December, 2000, that went entirely unchallenged by the Bush administration:
“It was, we thought at the time, a fairly straightforward application of Title VII principles,” a top former EEOC official who was involved in the decision told Mother Jones. “All of these plans covered Viagra immediately, without thinking, and they were still declining to cover prescription contraceptives. It’s a little bit jaw-dropping to see what is going on now…There was some press at the time but we issued guidances that were far, far more controversial.”
After the EEOC opinion was approved in 2000, reproductive rights groups and employees who wanted birth control access sued employers that refused to comply. The next year, in Erickson v. Bartell Drug Co., a federal court agreed with the EEOC’s reasoning.
So what changed? Almost nothing:
“We have used [the EEOC ruling] many times in negotiating with various employers,” says Judy Waxman, the vice president for health and reproductive rights at the National Women’s Law Center. “It has been in active use all this time. [President Obama’s] policy is only new in the sense that it covers employers with less than 15 employees and with no copay for the individual. The basic rule has been in place since 2000.”
The real issue at stake IS about religious freedom. It’s about whether an employer can impose its religious views on employees—and their bodies. It is whether individuals who work for religious-affiliated employers are required to accept their employer’s extremist views.
And, no mistake about it, a prohibition on contraception in America, in 2012, is an extremist view.
No. Individual rights to private matters of conscience—and matters of personal health—trump those of religious institutions.
The government is right to protect individuals from that institutional violence.
[Update: An analysis with more recent polling data can be found here.
I said in the previous analysis that a new poll was about to be released in South Carolina. It was. Unfortunately, they didn’t poll the presidential race. Too bad…now I’ll have to endure “I don’t believe the S.C. results” in comment threads and forums across the intertubes.
Folks, there was a recent very large (2100+ person) poll taken in South Carolina…and Obama led Romney. Maybe the pollster got unlucky; just maybe the lead was real. Either way, nobody will be surprised if the lead turns out to be transient.
With that off my chest, there are seven new polls released since the previous analysis:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CT | Yankee Institute | 01-Feb | 02-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 37 | O+13 |
| IL | Tribune/WGN-TV | 02-Feb | 06-Feb | 600 | 4.0 | 56 | 35 | O+21 |
| MN | SurveyUSA | 31-Jan | 02-Feb | 542 | 4.3 | 48.8 | 36.1 | O+12.7 |
| NC | PPP | 03-Feb | 05-Feb | 1052 | 3.0 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 08-Feb | 08-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 45 | 41 | O+4 |
| PA | Susquehanna | 02-Feb | 06-Feb | 500 | 3.5 | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| VA | Quinnipiac | 01-Feb | 06-Feb | 1544 | 2.5 | 47 | 43 | O+4 |
We cannot profess any surprise in Obama’s lead in the Connecticut (+13%), Illinois (+21%), and Minnesota (+12.7%) races.
Two swing states weight in. Ohio gives Obama a slender +4% lead. This means Obama has led in all three Ohio polls taken this year. And in Pennsylvania, Romney has a slenderer +2% lead. Nevertheless, a Keystone poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Obama leading 41% to 30%. Since both polls are considered “current” [FAQ], they are pooled and Obama ends up on top…for now.
The South turns in a couple of pleasant surprises for Team Obama. In Virginia, Obama is up by +4% over Romney. The only other Virginia poll taken this year also has Obama up (+1).
North Carolina seems to be leaning toward Obama (+1%). There are two other NC polls taken this year. A recent Civitas poll has Romney up +9. I should point out that Civitas is a conservative think tank, but their polls were okay in 2008. An early January PPP poll in NC had Obama up by +1. But only the two most recent polls are considered “current”, so Romney leads in North Carolina.
The previous analysis found Obama with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then, and a mean of 335 electoral votes to Romney’s 203.
With the seven new polls included, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 99,804 wins and Romney 196 wins (including the 21 ties). That suggests Obama has a 99.8% probability of winning an election held now. On average, Obama gains nine additional electoral votes: 344 to Romney’s 194.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.8% probability of winning | 0.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 344 electoral votes | Mean of 194 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Today Horsesass.Org is participating in a Washington United for Marriage and Daily Kos blog swarm to help support the marriage equality campaign in Washington State. HA is joined by bloggers from Bilerico Project, Pam’s House Blend, Good As You, AMERICABlog Gay,the Prop 8 Trial Tracker, the Seattle Lesbian, The Bent Angle, on the-Ave, MadProfessah, HRC, Hella Bus, Step Forward, LGBT POV, FrontiersLA, the Left Shue, Peace Tree Farm and more.
This has been an incredible week! On Tuesday a three judge panel from the Ninth Circuit Federal Court of Appeals ruled Proposition 8 unconstitutional. In the majority opinion, the court wrote,”Prop 8 served no purpose, and had no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California.”
On Wednesday, the Washington State House passed a same-sex marriage bill, and now it the bill is headed to Governor Gregoire’s desk for her signature. She promised to sign the bill before Valentine’s Day!
Please click here to thank Governor Gregoire.
Governor Gregoire’s leadership was instrumental to the success of passing a marriage bill in Washington State. She not only supported the bill, but she introduced the bill. This is as much her legislation as it is our community’s legislation.
Please join us during this blog swarm to thank Governor Gregoire for her leadership and her friendship. There is little doubt our opponents will make their voices heard, but we know that together our voice for equality is so much stronger.
When our friends speak up for us, we need to speak up for our friends, so join us in thanking Governor Gregoire today!
Did you sign the thank you petition? Share it with your friends: http://wufm.it/4
Jerry Cornfield summarizes the likely trajectory of ESSB 6239, the same-sex marriage bill.
A vote should come this afternoon…watch it live on TVW.
There is something you can do before the debate and vote begins…call or email your Representatives encouraging them to support passage. Even if your Rep. already supports the legislation, a show of support is important—you can probably imagine the type of campaign opponents are undertaking right now.
You can very quickly find contact information for your Representatives here.
Update: As expected…it passed.
I’m livebloggin’ it from the Montlake Alehouse!
Ladies and gentleman, the comment thread is open for your pleasure….
5:17: We have CNN on the tube, sans sound. I’ll see if I can find streaming audio. Otherwise, this will be an impressionistic report based on video and emotional stimulus only….
5:19: The teevee tells me that Romney and Santorum are tied in MO at 36% each. Go Frothy!
5:21: Romney puts Santorum down -1%.
5:23: In Missouri, Uncommitted is slightly ahead of Ron Paul. Go Uncommitted!!!!
5:38: I’ve been on the phone with my neighbor for the last 10 minutes or so, but I see there has been some action. Santorum moved on top of Romney, then Romney moved back on top of Santorum. Somebody get a hose, please.
5:52: In MO, “Uncommitted” has just pulled ahead of Ron Paul! Go Newt!
5:45: And now Romney is tied with Santorum. Ewwwwwwwww!
5:47: Minnesota weighs in and Mitt is way, way down…in THIRD place.
5:49: In Missouri, Paul is now +2 over uncommitted. And by “uncommitted”, I think they mean “Gingrich”
5:53: Minnesota. Remarkable:
6:20: Carl Ballard is here, so I’m chatting instead of serving you…
6:20: How totally awesome is this…Santorum is on top in all THREE states. If you believe in a God or god or Gods or gods, pray that this holds when more than 1% of the vote is in.
6:22: A hat-trick by Santorum tonight will cost Mitt Romney about $25 Million, will cost SuperPACs another $15 Million, and will leave all the candidates bloody and battered by the General election.
6:25: Carl Ballard isn’t wearing a sweater vest tonight. But that’s because he bicycled in tonight. He has an orange safety vest for biking in…and it doubles as a spiffy uniform when he joins the moon colony.
6:30: Romney goes on top of Santorum in CO….well, it was fun while it lasted….
6:35: Santorum is going to win the M states tonight. Mmmmmm for Santorum!
6:40: Holy SHIT! He is leading all 3 states…. Santorum spreads his philosophy across mid-continental U.S.
6:42: Santorum smears the competition in Missouri…CNN projects.
7:03: CNN has grainy, out of focus footage coming from their “caucus cam.” Isn’t that what got Rep.Anthony Weiner in trouble
7:21: I keep getting excited every time CNN shows Santorum way up in Colorado. But really, it has been the same result for a long time now. They keep repeating it over and over again, nevertheless it may not be true. But mark my words, the Romney camp is shitting their pants right now.
7:24: Okay…just as I posted that, new results came in from CO. Romney is tied with Santorum.
8:46: Holy shit…after Romney’s shit-eating-grin-festooned speech, he is shaking all kinds of hands, and we see TELEPROMTERS in the background. My God…Obama got more than Health Care Reform from Mitt Romney!!!
9:22: Goldy is here and he is totally vexed by the low numbers in Colorado…where Santorum is totally beating expectations by leading Romney. Unfortunately, the reported votes are not a random sample, but we can wish for a Santorum win…
9:25: And, of course, the second I leave the previous comment, Romney captures the lead from Santorum. Come-on, PRAY, people, PRAY!
9:40: Romney spreads his lead over Santorum….
9:51: 70% reporting in CO, and it looks like Santorum may just squeeze out a victory…. And Colorado Springs hasn’t reported yet, which ought to work in his favor.
10:03: Holy shit…Santorum pulls a HAT TRICK!!!! Incredible…an (un)clean sweep.
Please join us for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
There are three primary events tonight: The Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and the no-stakes “show-me” primary in Missouri. This one looks pretty interesting. The latest polls show:
Will Santorum really win two out of three?!? Clearly we’ll have some live blogging going on for this G.O.P. train-wreck.
Drinking Liberally–Seattle meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our nominal starting time is 8:00 pm, but some of us will show up much earlier for the political happenings.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapters. On Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.
With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
Today is an auspicious day for Mitt Romney. It was four years ago today that he surrendered:
Romney’s candidacy, into which he has dumped well more than $35 million of his own fortune, had become a longshot, slipping far behind John McCain and losing ground even to Mike Huckabee. But he said he was pulling out of the race and clearing the way for McCain’s nomination for the good of the party and, ultimately, the country.
The good of the country?!? What the fuck?
As president, either of the Democratic contenders, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, Romney asserted, “would retreat and declare defeat” in Iraq and the war on terror. “And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be part of aiding a surrender to terror,” Romney said.
Oh yes…we all remember that day when our President, Barack Hussein Obama, handed keys to the White House over to Osama bin Laden—you know, shaped into and delivered to Osama in the form of a bullet. To the head. But, you know, with a limited stealth operation instead of a full military invasion, it was kind-of surrenderish.
Four years ago now, the G.O.P. front-runner was John McCain. My Monte Carlo-based analysis of the polling data had McCain leading Sen. Obama by 341 to 197 electoral votes and Sen. Hillary Clinton by 310 to 228 electoral votes.
How did Romney stack up against Obama at the time? My last analysis in that match-up had Obama trouncing Romney 378 to 160 electoral votes. Four years later, the “score” has Obama up 335 to 203. Not much of a marginal return on investment after the first $35 million!
Today is auspicious for another reason. Romney will win at least one of the three primary contests—Colorado caucus for sure. But he’ll sure be red-faced if he only wins one of the three. And the last polling in Minnesota shows Santorum with a double-digit lead over Romney—who may even finish third or fourth. The most recent poll for the Missouri primary was from late January and showed Rick Santorum over Romney by +11%.
If he does suffer a pair of losses tonight, Mitt should consider for future 7 Feb to not even get up in the morning—instead, he should spend the whole day nestled in his recharging unit.
That’s the Appeals Court ruling on California’s same-sex marriage ban.
“Proposition 8 serves no purpose, and has no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California, and to officially reclassify their relationships and families as inferior to those of opposite-sex couples,” wrote U.S. Circuit Judge Stephen Reinhardt. “The Constitution simply does not allow for laws of this sort.”
Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.
Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| MT | Public Opinion Strategies | 09-Jan | 10-Jan | 400 | 4.9 | 36 | 53 | R+17 |
| NH | U NH | 25-Jan | 02-Feb | 495 | 4.4 | 50 | 40 | O+10 |
| NY | Siena | 29-Jan | 01-Feb | 807 | 3.4 | 63 | 31 | O+32 |
Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.
The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!
The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)
With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.6% probability of winning | 0.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 335 electoral votes | Mean of 203 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Because they are SO FUCKING STOOOPID!!!
(h/t HuffPo)
Update: Mike Huckabee provides even more evidence for the Stooopid thesis (my emphasis):
“[I]t’s tragic that the Planned Parenthood organization now tries to present themselves primarily a health organization when they are primarily an abortion provider…. They provide some services. I will grant you that. But they are maybe on the fringes — are external portion of what they are primarily all about.”
Wingnut math: 3% == “a primary service”.
There is some football game on or something. I’m busy doing work stuff this afternoon and, frankly, when I woke up this morning, I didn’t even know who was playing. I guess I can have the game it on as background noise.
If, like me, you don’t have a teevee, Westwood one affiliates will carry the game. In the Seattle area, you can find it on 950 on the AM dial.
Anyway…snark away in the comment threads if you wish.
3:45: Somebody scored a basket.
3:50: Did Tom Cruise just score?
3:53: Damn…Redmond’s best Thai restaurant has closed.
3:56: Meanwhile, the score in Nevada (via Nevada GOP):
Current #NVCaucus results with 72.9% of precincts reporting: Gingrich: 22.3%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 48.1%, Santorum 10.9%, No Vote: 0.2%
72.9% complete? Have they run out of fingers?
4:18: From Twitopia:
Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox
“Illegal huddle” also something Santorum has campaigned against. #SuperBowl
4:25: Is this USA Today headline a double entendre? Brown student uncovers lost Malcolm X speech.
4:50: Poll Analysis: Patriots ahead of Giants by +1 halfway through contest.
5:19: From Twitopia:
Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas
Use Madonna’s outfit as a model for my Moon Emperor uniform.
5:48: Clearly, Obama has won over the hearts and minds and companies of Detroit:
5:59: Rush Limbaugh goes “green”.
6:00: Remember Shrub’s “sporting” moment? What is it about Wingnuts going nostril spelunking during sporting events? Do they think they’re digging for gold? Or do they imagine themselves wiping out poor people?
6:11: The National Football League can admit, seat, entertain for 3+ hours, and clear out 68,658 people in far less time than it takes the Nevada GOP to tally votes for some 35,000 caucus-goers?
6:51: It’s over. The Yankees win…again.
It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.
I should be able to do some commentary.
Have at it in the comment thread.
4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:
The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….
4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.
4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:
5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.
5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.
5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):
5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.
5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.
5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:
5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]
The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.
The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)
WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.
WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.
These ratings have been stable for awhile.
Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.
Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:
The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….
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