Obama versus Romney using polls from 06-Feb-12 to 06-Mar-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Capital Survey Research Center 06-Jul-11 06-Sep-11 841 3.3 33.9 55.8 R+21.9


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 4.7% wins (4,711 wins ), Romney: 95.3% wins (95,289 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 19-Feb-12 20-Feb-12 2487 2.0 40.0 45.0 R+5.0
PPP 17-Feb-12 19-Feb-12 743 3.6 47.0 47.0 0.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Talk Business-Hendrix College 15-Sep-11 15-Sep-11 2101 2.1 33.5 49.5 R+16.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 08-Feb-12 16-Feb-12 500 4.5 57.0 35.0 O+22.0
Field Poll 02-Feb-12 18-Feb-12 1003 3.1 55.0 35.0 O+20.0
SurveyUSA 08-Feb-12 10-Feb-12 2088 2.1 60.0 31.0 O+29.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 66.8% wins (66,752 wins ), Romney: 33.2% wins (33,248 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 01-Dec-11 04-Dec-11 793 3.5 47.0 45.0 O+2.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 98.7% wins (98,703 wins ), Romney: 1.3% wins (1,297 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Yankee Institute 01-Feb-12 02-Feb-12 500 4.5 50.0 37.0 O+13.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 69.3% wins (69,297 wins ), Romney: 30.7% wins (30,703 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 09-Feb-12 09-Feb-12 500 4.5 47.0 44.0 O+3.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 4.3% wins (4,329 wins ), Romney: 95.7% wins (95,671 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 23-Feb-12 26-Feb-12 1156 2.9 42.5 49.3 R+6.8


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 13-Oct-11 16-Oct-11 568 4.1 59.0 32.0 O+27.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Tribune/WGN-TV 02-Feb-12 06-Feb-12 600 4.0 56.0 35.0 O+21.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 33.7% wins (33,666 wins ), Romney: 66.3% wins (66,334 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Iowa Poll 12-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 800 3.5 44.0 46.0 R+2.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.5% wins (7,545 wins ), Romney: 92.5% wins (92,455 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 510 4.4 39.0 47.6 R+8.6


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.0% wins (7,005 wins ), Romney: 93.0% wins (92,995 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 25-Aug-11 28-Aug-11 600 4.0 40.0 48.0 R+8.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.3% wins (256 wins ), Romney: 99.7% wins (99,744 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Clarus Research Group 06-Oct-11 08-Oct-11 602 4.0 37.0 53.0 R+16.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

4 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner. No district-level polls have been released to date.

1 poll

Obama: 98.4% wins (98,412 wins ), Romney: 1.6% wins (1,588 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 28-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 673 3.8 49.0 38.0 O+11.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 29-Feb-12 29-Feb-12 500 4.5 55.0 37.0 O+18.0
WNEU 23-Feb-12 01-Mar-12 527 4.3 60.0 36.0 O+24.0
Suffolk 11-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 500 --- 53.0 39.3 O+13.7
WBUR 06-Feb-12 09-Feb-12 503 4.4 55.0 34.0 O+21.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 19-Feb-12 20-Feb-12 3149 1.8 51.0 33.0 O+18.0
PPP 10-Feb-12 12-Feb-12 560 4.1 54.0 38.0 O+16.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 98.7% wins (98,726 wins ), Romney: 1.3% wins (1,274 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 31-Jan-12 02-Feb-12 542 4.3 48.8 36.1 O+12.7


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Nov-11 06-Nov-11 796 3.5 36.0 54.0 R+18.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 49.8% wins (49,807 wins ), Romney: 50.2% wins (50,193 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 27-Jan-12 29-Jan-12 582 4.1 45.0 45.0 0.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 12.2% wins (12,150 wins ), Romney: 87.8% wins (87,850 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 22-Feb-12 22-Feb-12 500 4.5 41.0 48.0 R+7.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 0.3% wins (333 wins ), Romney: 99.7% wins (99,667 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 30-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 739 3.6 38.0 51.0 R+13.0


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.09% Obama, 44.34% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 55.7% wins (55,693 wins ), Romney: 44.3% wins (44,307 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 30-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 303 --- 45.0 44.0 O+1.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 48.76% Obama, 49.96% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 18.1% wins (18,146 wins ), Romney: 81.9% wins (81,854 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 30-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 222 --- 42.0 50.0 R+8.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 30-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 214 --- 25.0 61.0 R+36.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 86.0% wins (86,034 wins ), Romney: 14.0% wins (13,966 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U Nevada 12-Dec-11 20-Dec-11 600 4.0 45.7 39.8 O+5.9


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 95.0% wins (94,987 wins ), Romney: 5.0% wins (5,013 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U NH 25-Jan-12 02-Feb-12 495 4.4 50.0 40.0 O+10.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,972 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (28 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Quinnipiac 21-Feb-12 27-Feb-12 1396 4.6 49.0 37.0 O+12.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,912 wins ), Romney: 0.1% wins (88 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 14-Feb-12 14-Feb-12 500 4.5 55.0 36.0 O+19.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Quinnipiac 08-Feb-12 13-Feb-12 1233 2.8 52.0 35.0 O+17.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 58.8% wins (58,755 wins ), Romney: 41.2% wins (41,245 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 03-Feb-12 05-Feb-12 1052 3.0 47.0 46.0 O+1.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.2% wins (215 wins ), Romney: 99.8% wins (99,785 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mellman Group 12-Nov-11 16-Nov-11 600 4.0 33.0 47.0 R+14.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 99.2% wins (99,188 wins ), Romney: 0.8% wins (812 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 29-Feb-12 02-Mar-12 1504 2.5 50.0 38.0 O+12.0
Fox News 11-Feb-12 13-Feb-12 505 4.5 38.0 44.0 R+6.0
Quinnipiac 07-Feb-12 12-Feb-12 1421 2.6 46.0 44.0 O+2.0
Rasmussen 08-Feb-12 08-Feb-12 500 4.5 45.0 41.0 O+4.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 92.3% wins (92,286 wins ), Romney: 7.7% wins (7,714 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 21-Nov-11 528 4.4 48.1 39.8 O+8.3


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 99.0% wins (99,016 wins ), Romney: 1.0% wins (984 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Muhlenberg 15-Feb-12 21-Feb-12 625 4.0 48.0 37.0 O+11.0
Keystone Poll 14-Feb-12 20-Feb-12 592 4.0 41.0 33.0 O+8.0
Rasmussen 08-Feb-12 23-Feb-12 438 4.5 45.0 44.0 O+1.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,798 wins ), Romney: 0.2% wins (202 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 16-Feb-11 22-Feb-11 544 4.2 54.0 37.0 O+17.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 86.4% wins (86,439 wins ), Romney: 13.6% wins (13,561 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 04-Dec-11 06-Dec-11 2107 2.1 45.0 42.0 O+3.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 4.3% wins (4,272 wins ), Romney: 95.7% wins (95,728 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Neilson Brothers 15-Feb-12 17-Feb-12 559 4.2 35.0 44.0 R+9.0


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 18.7% wins (18,737 wins ), Romney: 81.3% wins (81,263 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Vanderbilt Poll 16-Feb-12 22-Feb-12 1508 3.0 39.0 42.0 R+3.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.9% wins (889 wins ), Romney: 99.1% wins (99,111 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U Texas 08-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 529 4.3 36.0 49.0 R+13.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 08-Jul-11 10-Jul-11 732 3.6 31.0 63.0 R+32.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Castleton Poll 11-Feb-12 22-Feb-12 800 3.5 58.0 33.0 O+25.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 99.6% wins (99,645 wins ), Romney: 0.4% wins (355 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 29-Feb-12 03-Mar-12 1245 2.8 52.0 35.0 O+17.0
Rasmussen 21-Feb-12 21-Feb-12 500 4.5 49.0 43.0 O+6.0
Roanoke College 13-Feb-12 26-Feb-12 607 4.0 42.0 43.0 R+1.0
Christopher Newport U 04-Feb-12 13-Feb-12 1018 3.1 43.0 46.0 R+3.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 16-Feb-12 19-Feb-12 1264 2.8 53.0 38.0 O+15.0
SurveyUSA 13-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 572 4.2 49.9 39.2 O+10.7
Elway 07-Feb-12 09-Feb-12 405 5.0 49.0 38.0 O+11.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 30-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 932 3.2 33.0 54.0 R+21.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,949 wins ), Romney: 0.1% wins (51 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 27-Feb-12 27-Feb-12 500 4.5 42.0 47.0 R+5.0
PPP 23-Feb-12 26-Feb-12 900 3.3 53.0 39.0 O+14.0
Marquette Law School 16-Feb-12 19-Feb-12 716 --- 52.2 37.5 O+14.7


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.