This week’s contest is related to a news item from March, good luck!
Archives for March 2012
Death is the punishment for murder.
Suppose a pregnant woman suffers a miscarriage as the result of an injury caused by someone who is fighting. If she isn’t badly hurt, the one who injured her must pay whatever fine her husband demands and the judges approve. But if she is seriously injured, the payment will be life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burn for burn, cut for cut, and bruise for bruise.
The polls close in a few minutes in Lousiana, and if the pre-election polling hold, Rick Santorum should win easily.
Tonight’s win is important for Santorum, because there is mostly bad news for him in the near future primary Schedule. A week from Tuesday will be a triple header of D.C, Maryland, and Wisconsin. I doubt Santorum can win any of these, unless Mitt’s Etch-a-sketch wound turns into full-blown political septicemia. And after that, we have a April 24 mini-Super Tuesday, with Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. As it stands now, Romney should take all but Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.
I’ll probably get dragged away from the computer for various thing, but have at it in the comment threads.
5:59 pm (PDT): There are 20 delegates up for grab in LA (46 total). They are’t very important for Santorum who probably cannot win on delegates anyway. He needs a outright slaughter with hopes that it will catalyze a big momentum change in his favor.
6:12: Here is a livestream from NBC. From what I can tell, both NBC and CNN have called it for Santorum.
6:30: Barack Obama seem to be taking the Democratic primary in Louisiana with 69.3% of the vote (0.4% reporting).
7:50: With 83.1% of precincts reporting, here is what we have:
- Santorum, 49.7%
- Romney, 25.9%
- Gingrich, 16.1%
- Paul, 6.1%
Santorum would get a “bragging rights” boost by getting over 50% and/or doubling Romney’s votes—perhaps the former will happen.
Mark Fiore: iWhine.
Young Turks: Man sues Secret Service over Cheney “assault”.
White House: We the People — Your voice in our government.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
- Some things you can’t shake off.
- Lawrence O’Donnell: Sketchy.
- Even Mitt Romney knows an Etch-a-sketch can’t erase his extreme positions
- Young Turks: The Etch-a-sketch disaster.
- Maddow: Mitt and lying:
- Mitt Romney: Unshakably Extreme.
- Newsy: Romney’s campaign stimulating jobs in Ohio.
- Sam Seder: The real Mitt Romney is an Etch-a-Sketch
- Mitt Romney’s bad day
President Obama nominates Dr. Jim Yong Kim for World Bank President.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Greenman: Michael Mann’s hockey stick under oath.
Jon on Cable News.
Ann Telnaes: The Going-Nowhere strategy in Afghanistan.
The Republican Primary Jousting Contest:
- Young Turks: Is Rick Santorum Opus Dei?
- Ed: Romney gives George Bush credit for saving economy
- Actual Audio: Santorum versus Romney.
- Ann Telnaes: Santorum’s higher calling.
- Ed: Obama derangement syndrome.
Health Reform in Action: One mother’s story:
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Porn-con.
Ann Telnaes: Second anniversary of the Health Care law.
Young Turks: Five worst things about the G.O.P. Ryan budget.
Newsy: Congress hires their relatives.
Greenman: The search forLord Monckton.
More Skirmishes in the Republican War on Women™:
- Mitt to Women: You’re on your own.
- Maddow: Idaho’s forced transvaginal ultrasound bill, and other news in the G.O.P. culture wars.
- Mitt Romney vows to get rid of Planned Parenthood
- What women need to know about Mitt Romney.
- Maddow: Governor Ultrasound.
- Young Turks: The War on Women.
Health care reform across the country.
Alyona: Worst Proposed Internet laws of 2012.
Young Turks: Ryan’s budget, Zimmerman defenders and other topics.
White House: West Wing Week.
Death by Hoodie:
- Young Turks: President Obama on Trayvon Martin.
- Alyona’s Tool Time: Geraldo ‘Hoodie’ killed Trayvon Martin.
- Sharpton: Trayvon could have been any one of our sons
- Olbermann and Prof. Turley: the danger of Florida’s ‘Stand Your Ground’ law
- Young Turks: Trayvon Martin smear attempt by Glenn Beck’s web site.
- Sam Seder: Geraldo Rivera blame Hoodies for Trayvon Martin killing.
- Pap and Ed: Did police blow chance of conviction with Zimmerman?
- Newsy: Florida shooting putting gun laws in the spotlight.
- Alyona’s Fireside Friday: Trayvon Martin.
- Young Turks: TYT crew dress to die.
Conversations with Valerie Plame and Joseph Wilson:
Jimmy Kimmel with some unnecessary censorship.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
|99.7% probability of winning||0.3% probability of winning|
|Mean of 329 electoral votes||Mean of 209 electoral votes|
There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:
|NJ||Fairleigh Dickinson U||05-Mar||11-Mar||800||3.5||54||33||O+21|
The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.
Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.
The other day I took a bike ride down the waterfront. I have to say the bike trail in the Southern part is pretty cool. I hope they expand that all the way up and maybe to the Sculpture Park. Still, riding by some of the recently torn out tracks from the old waterfront streetcar hit me surprisingly hard.
Sure, it’s tough to mourn a line that hasn’t been in service for the better part of a decade: Nobody really believed the route would come back any time soon, and with the tunnel, it has been a done deal for some time that they’d never have that streetcar along the waterfront. I’ve said before that I’m fine in theory with the bus route that replaced it, although I wish it ran both ways and more frequently.
Still, seeing the gravel beds without the tracks had a sense of permanence that the things in the above paragraph don’t. If you’d asked me before, I would have told you that the streetcar wasn’t coming back. But now I can say it with more conviction.
If this piece was written by anyone but Lou Guzzo (his archives are funky, scroll down to March 17), I’d assume it was satire on the hype around the NFL draft. For Guzzo, I think he thinks it’s a good idea.
Why Not Draft Opera Singers, Actors Like the NFL Does It?
Because it’s a terrible idea. Because nobody thinks it’s unfair that the best opera singers go to the best operas? I’m going to feel bad making fun of this if it’s actually satire.*
I’ve been an incurable football nut almost since birth, but even I have the feeling that the annual shindig called the National Football League draft is terribly overdone as entertainment, despite the valiant efforts of the league and the various owners to make it seem like the rebirth of old-time vaudeville.
Sure. Fans only have 16 games and a relatively short playoff, and they love the game, so they get excited when things like the draft, the combine, and the when next season’s schedule comes out. That’s fine: if there’s a market for it, let people watch it. People get excited about all sorts of things.
After all, what on earth is so exciting about watching an annual supermarket for excessively high priced human beef? Why in the world don’t we get that hysterical, say, over drafting talent in many other walks of life. Let’s say, grand opera, for instance. I can just hear the announcer at a Grand Opera “draft” now:
Why don’t we get hyst… Why… don’t we get that hysterical over drafting opera singers? For starters, we can’t really get excited about an event that doesn’t happen. Second, the event doesn’t happen because the operas don’t compete against each other in a league so there wouldn’t be anyone to organize the draft. And third even if there was an opera league, singers can go wherever they want to perform.
“And now, folks, please give me your undivided attention. Here is the announcement we’ve all been waiting for. Speight Jenkins, general manager of the Seattle Opera Company, will step up to the microphone and announce his first pick from among the tenors. Speight….”
Does Lou Guzzo think the NFL drafts by position? Otherwise, why would he have a pick among the tenors? Is this satire? Isn’t satire supposed to be funny?
“Ladies and gentlemen of the opera world, it gives me the greatest pleasure to report that our first draft choice is Mario Lungbuster, lyric tenor from the Cincinnati Conservatory! Mr. Lungbuster, will you please come up here to the microphone so I can introduce you properly.”
Was there any point of this paragraph?
(Can you hear the audience cheering and shouting “Bravo! at the top of the operatic registers?)
The announcer returns for a moment: “Mr. Jenkins! Mr. Jenkins! Will you please answer a few questions for our TV and radio audiences? You can? Good! OK. Here’s one from a woman in our audience. She wants to know why you selected Mario in the very first round — and can you afford to sign him to a contract?”
It sounds like this plan would make opera worse.
Mr. Jenkins: “Well, our regular tenor is still recovering from rib fractures suffered when he tried lifting the well-built soprano from the sofa in ‘La Traviata,’ and then a day later he really aggravated the injury when he fell off his horse in ‘Aida,’ but managed to finish the opera in great pain. We need a backup dramatic tenor.
“Mario is just the ticket. He’s short on experience, but he proved he knows how to go for the high notes without straining his, if you’ll pardon the expression, stomach muscles. Besides, he has well developed arm and back muscles so he’ll be able to hoist those overweight sopranos when they lean on him in the middle of a tearful aria. Oh, and to answer the second part of your question, we can afford to sign Mario to a long-term contract, but we may not have enough in the bank to pay for all his bills from his chiropractor.”
Wouldn’t anyone in a draft by necessity be short on experience? Also, Lou doesn’t seem to realize that this is a set of horrible jokes at the expense of made up people.
OK, enough already. In the same way, the symphony might use its No. 1 draft choice to replace its fumbling flutist with a Juilliard All-Star. Or, if you want to consider what the draft might do for theatrical companies, the Reportory Theater might gamble on a matinee idol who led the nation in free passes at the U.S.C. School of Drama.
Or they could pay a flutist or an actor on the market like they do now. There’s no advantage to this plan.
Say, you know something’ A culture draft might not be such a bad idea, at that, all jokes and hilarity aside. Just give me a minute, will you please? I have to make an important phone call. Dum-de dum-dum…. Hello, Seattle Opera? Would you please get me the boss, Mr. Speight Jenkins?
What hilarity? Is “Dum-de-dum-dum” the sound phones make in Guzzo’s world? Do the people answering the phones at the Seattle Opera need to be told the name of their artistic director? Like all Lou Guzzo pieces this left me with more questions than answers.
Here are a few things we learn from gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna based on this audio taken yesterday before Kemper Freeman’s Eastside Transportation Association:
- He is a “deep deep skeptic of bringing light rail across [the] I-90” floating bridge.
- He “isn’t even sure how it is going to work.”
- He doesn’t understand “fixed rail on a floating bridge.”
- Regardless of his lack of understanding, he “envisions it be shutting down [for] winds.” And this worries him.
- He believes Sound Transit is a “significantly unaccountable regional transportation body.”
- He believes uninformed voters were duped by Greg Nichols in 1998 over the first public vote.
- He definitively sides with opponents of light rail on I-90 saying, “we have lost the key battles ever since.”
- He isn’t sure how to move forward on stopping light rail on I-90 (because of votes and bonding issues), but he is sure he can work with light rail opponents on it.
I need to say this again: Should he be elected, Rob McKenna will be Washington state’s Scott Walker.
There’s a meme in the mainstream media that chalks up these comparisons of McKenna to Walker as “demon
etization” (with a figurative roll of the eyes).
In some ways this is fair. After all, aside from McKenna’s single biggest political blunder—joining the A.G. lawsuit against the 2009 health care reform law—he’s been cautious. He has dodged talking policy stands on hot-button issues where his views are likely to be unpopular. I mean, we can be sure McKenna doesn’t like light rail, same-sex marriage, public employee unions, death with dignity, etc. When asked about these things, he dodges. He bullshits his way out of expressing his opinion. He offers little about what a Gov. McKenna would do about particular issues. And, apparently, the state’s media aren’t skillful enough to coax non-weaselly answers from him.
So, we are forced to make inferences by an occasional controversial statement and by the people he endorses. We read between the lines. We parse his weaselly answers to try and understand what he’s dodging. We accept that he is a Republican in a state where moderate Republicans are nearly extinct.
Now we have a new piece of evidence—something stronger than inference from a dodged answer. We’ve know for a long time that McKenna doesn’t like Sound Transit and doesn’t care for light rail. But this is more: Rob McKenna has, essentially, made a campaign promise to work with Kemper Freeman, Jr. and company to find ways of killing light rail to the East Side.
Seems like something Scott Walker would do.
– I’m glad to see the rest of the country realize that Cathy-McMorris-Rodgers is pretty awful.
– Jay Inslee at Bike Works.
– If you only count the Catholics who vote for Rick Santorum, he has 100% of the Catholic vote.
– Mitt Romney is the Etch a Sketch candidate.
|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 339 electoral votes||Mean of 199 electoral votes|
It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted one of these analyses. Pollsters have been rather focused on the G.O.P. primary and not so much on the general election, so there have only been twelve new state head-to-head polls to incorporate into a new analysis.
|NJ||Fairleigh Dickinson U||05-Mar||11-Mar||800||3.5||50||37||O+13|
The three new polls from two traditional swing states all favor Obama, with +3% in Florida and +6% & +7% in Pennsylvania.
The good news for Obama comes from three states that went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008: New Mexico where Obama has a remarkable +19% lead, Virginia where Obama is up by +8%, and North Carolina where Obama has ekes out a +3%.
The good news for Romney is Missouri, which McCain barely won in 2008, and that has now swung to the right: Romney leads Obama by a solid +9%.
The previous Monte Carlo analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes, and 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every time, so he is still expected to win an election held now with 100% probability. Obama receives an average of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.
Yesterday a Molotov cocktail was thrown at the office door of a Texas state legislator. They haven’t caught the person who did it and it’s not known what the motive was. We do know that the legislator in question, Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, was a woman. She was pro choice and she was a Democrat.
Now we don’t know if this was an unhinged person or if it was political calculation (or both) and obviously people are responsible for their own actions. But these things happen within a larger context. And I hope the people fomenting hatred of women who gloated when Dr. Tiller was murdered will at least consider this as a reason to tamp down the rhetoric.
… An arrest was made late last night. So far everything above stands.
Another Tuesday, another chance to raise a glass and have a laugh over the G.O.P. primary melee.
There have been four Republican primary polls taken in Illinois this year, and they were all taken in March. Here’s what they show:
- Chicago Tribune: 7-mar to 9-mar: Romney 35%, Santorum 31% (+4 Romeny)
- FOX Chicago News 14-mar: Romney 37%, Santorum 31% (+6 Romeny)
- Rasmussen 15-mar: Romney 41%, Santorum 32% (+9 Romeny)
- PPP 14-mar to 18-mar: Romney 41%, Santorum 31% (+15 Romney)
It is possible that the trend of Romney pulling ahead of Santorum is simple polling variability. Or, Santorum might be tanking, big time, from (1) alienating women through his War on Contraception™ and (2) alienating men through his War on Porn™, or both.
War is hell.
Anyway, this is an open thread, so have fun…but, you know, keep it Santorum-approved.
5:40: The polls in Illinois are closed and 15% of the vote is already counted (according to Google after typing “Illinois Primary” into its general search). So far, no signs of Romeny is not getting his ass, um, kicked by Santorum:
- Romney: 54.7%
- Santorum: 27.4%
- Paul: 10.4%
- Gingrich: 6.7%
6:06: As Michael points out in the comment thread…that was quick! The election is called for Romney. Since Illinois does proportional allocation, the interesting question is how badly will Santorum lose. (I was in transit when the election was called, so sorry about the late update.)
6:12: It isn’t impossible for Romney to win the 1,144 delegates before the August G.O.P. convention. It would require a change in momentum for Mitt:
Even after polls close on the last contest, held on June 26 in Romney-friendly Utah, according to an analysis by ABC News the former Massachusetts governor may still be short of 1,144 delegates — the magic number a candidate will need to secure the nomination.
Based on 2008 presidential-primary results, conventional-wisdom expectations, statewide 2010 primary results by county, and polls, a conservative estimate suggests Romney will end this primary season just shy of the 1,144 delegates he’ll need to win.
…or some help from G.O.P. superdelegates:
The Republican Party, however, has its own version of Democratic superdelegates: members of the GOP who will attend the Republican National Convention in Tampa this August as voting delegates, not having been elected or appointed, but included by virtue of their party roles. In nearly every state and territory, the GOP chairman, RNC committeeman, and RNC committeewoman hold this status.
In all, 123 of these superdelegates will attend the Tampa convention — enough to push Romney over the edge if a majority of them support him. Romney already enjoys the backing of 33 of these automatic RNC delegates, included in the 521 delegates ABC News estimates he has won.
Remember during the 2008 Democratic convention how the Republicans criticized the hell out of the Democratic nominating process because of the superdelegates?
Yeah…typical fucking G.O.P. hypocrisy!
6:37: Mmmmm…Mexican pasta! I enjoyed it without reservation….I must hate America.
6:40: According to my sources (namely, Google), just over half the votes are counted:
- Romney: 49.3%
- Santorum: 33.2%
- Paul: 9.1%
- Gingrich: 7.5%
It looks like Santorum is going to lose by double digits. Even so, how pathetic is Gingrich!
Please join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight is the Illinois primary and, in addition to the G.O.P. presidential primary entertainment, there are a number of important primary races that could affect the balance of power in the House.
Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier to catch the earliest election returns.
I’ll be live blogging the results at horsesass.org.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter.
With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
– Nothing like financial lectures from The Seattle Times.
– I missed the earthquake over the weekend.
– Who would want a tour of anything with Dick Morris?
– The let doctors lie bills are among the most awful of the horrible anti-abortion bills.
– National Council on Education for the Ceramic Arts means there will be exhibits throughout the area.
Look, having 2 first district elections (one for the old seat from certification until the new seat is filled and one for the new) is a bit strange. But people can figure it out. Or as The Seattle Times implies: the dummies who vote will get all confused.
U.S. REP. Jay Inslee already has confounded 1st Congressional District voters by quitting his job, leaving constituents unrepresented in the months ahead. The Bainbridge Island Democrat leaves Congress this week to devote more time to running for governor.
Hey, remember when I said I thought the legacy media types who were always asking for Inslee to talk more about local issues would like that move? Whoops!
1st District residents would vote to fill the seat for December. Voters in the new 1st District would pick the two-year representative.
Bad idea. Too confusing for everyone.
You know how when an initiative that The Seattle Times agrees with passes they’re all about the will of the people will of the people will of the people? Those people will apparently be too confused by one election with Goodspaceguy and some people looking to get their name in the paper and one with the actual candidates. People on Bainbridge will apparently think they get two members of Congress now. Really, who cares?