– Rick Warren is a real piece of work.
– Fuse’s progressive voters guide.
– Rob McKenna running away from Essex Porter is pretty great.
– I assume Darryl will have more analysis of this Elway Poll, but without wanting to get too excited over one poll, Inslee up 43-36 is good news.
– Jean Godden has a great remembrance of J.P. Patches.
That was so strange to type. I don’t know what to think of it. Still, fuck the Yankees and all, but fuck them a little less on days when he’s playing.
Yes, he’s past his prime. And yes, this will give him a chance to play in the post season, and maybe the World Series, while freeing his position in the lineup and salary for the Mariners. He hasn’t played as well this season as he has in the past. He’s pushing 40, and those infield hits don’t come around like they used to. Management didn’t really know where to put him in the lineup, and maybe there was nowhere to put him in the lineup.
Still, so much of the Mariners’ recent past revolves around him. It’ll be tough to see him in a Yankee uniform.
My questions in Bold, Shelly Crocker’s as they were sent.
1) The state’s paramount duty is education. Do you feel the state is living up to that duty? If not, what needs to happen to live up to it?
In a recent publication, Washington was given a “C” rating for our public schools overall, and is 42nd out of 50 in per-pupil spending. If that is the best we can do in achieving our paramount duty, we aren’t trying hard enough. How to approach K-12 education is a highly contentious issue, however. Voters have rejected charter schools time and again, and it is time to realize that there is no magic fix, but there are things we can do right away to get closer to meet our duty to the state. We need to make sure teachers are adequately paid with cost of living increases, but still held accountable for their performance. Increasing teacher’s attention to each student by reversing the size of our growing class is as simple as re-hiring some of the thousands of qualified teachers who have been laid off in the past few years.
Additionally, the massive cuts in higher education (50% in three years) must be reversed. Our universities are a public good: we cannot make cost a prohibitive factor for students, and burdening students with debt is just another regressive tax.
2) Washington State voters recently rejected an income tax. Most of the revenue that the legislature might be able to pass is quite regressive. Will you push for revenue, and if so, how will you make sure the burdens don’t fall on the poorest Washingtonians?
Washington has the most regressive tax structure in the country, and if we want to give more than just lip service to the different worthwhile services that have been fighting in a zero-sum game down in Olympia, we need to create a fairer and more sustainable revenue stream. However, the reality in Olympia makes it extremely difficult to create substantial tax reform. It is the nickel and dime regressive taxes and fees that have made people so disillusioned with government, and I will do everything I can to avoid creating more of them. Whoever is elected to represent the 46th will have the privilege of being a strong voice for tax reform, including advocating for an equitable income tax, as our District strongly supports increasing revenues.
3) There is a good chance that the State Senate and/or the Governor’s Mansion will be controlled by Republicans after the next election, and certainly most legislators will be more conservative than people who would be elected in a Seattle district. Given that how will you get your agenda passed?
Frankly, to faithfully represent my District, there are many issues I will not be able to compromise on with Republicans. However, the obstructionist politics we’ve seen from Republicans at the federal level lead to dysfunctional government. Washingtonians do share many values, whatever their political persuasion, and I will work to find areas of common ground. Very few bills fit as cleanly along the ideological spectrum as we’d like to believe, and a high majority of bills that pass through the Legislature receive some level of bipartisan support. If Republicans gain a majority in the Senate, I will look across the aisle to find areas of agreement, and I will keep an open mind toward any bill that comes before me in the Legislature, no matter where it came from.
4) You’re running in a race with many Democrats who share similar positions. What separates you from the rest of the field?
All of my fellow Democratic candidates are competent individuals and share similar progressive values, but what sets me apart is the breadth of my life experience. If you name any walk of life, I’ve probably been there. I’m a high school dropout. I came out as a lesbian and left home when I was 15. I came to Seattle, and with the help of Pell grants, financial aid, and other government services I was able to work my way through Seattle Central Community College and the University of Washington. I understand the value of these services, and I can appreciate the situations of the less fortunate among us because I’ve experienced it firsthand.
Now I own a successful law firm, and I see a whole other side of our community. In my work as an insolvency and bankruptcy attorney, along with my continuing work in my community, I work hard every day to make sure people get a second chance. I’m not afraid to stand up against big banks and mortgage companies, and I’ve been taking on those fights in the courts, one family at a time. As a volunteer, I have also worked hard to end homelessness, travelling to Olympia as a citizen advocate to speak with legislators about preserving our social safety net. These experiences have taught me that working together, we can make our world better. It won’t be easy, but I’ve faced up to some of life’s toughest challenges and come through them stronger, and I am ready to take on the challenges of representing our District in Olympia.
5) Seattle and King County give more to the state than they get back. Part of this is reasonable things like the cost of providing education and social services in rural and suburban areas, but part of it is a lack of respect for Seattle and King County with the legislature that treats us as an ATM. How will you make sure your district gets its fair share of revenue without harming education or social services throughout the state?
We are lucky to live in an area of the state with so many successful companies and economic potential, and a part of being so successful means being a tax exporter: the taxes we pay are going to the places that need it most. What is needed is complete tax reform to bring about a more equitable tax system overall. The residents of the 46th District are generally not adverse to paying taxes when they trust that the money is being used fairly and effectively. However, there are also social and infrastructure needs right here in the 46th, and I will not let my constituents be neglected.
– RIP J.P. Patches.
– Bad polling news for the same sex marriage referendum .
– Washington NARAL’s endorsements.
– The Romney campaign buying pornbot followers for his Twitter.
– Flags will not be flown at half-mast, and the residence of North Philadelphia, East St. Louis, or the city of Detroit will not be getting a visit from the president. [h/t]
– Federalism is great and all, but why let states ban animal cruelty?
Last week’s contest was won by Darryl. It was on Whidbey Island.
This week’s contest is related to something in the news from July, good luck!
1 Kings 1:1-4
King David was now an old man, and he always felt cold, even under a lot of blankets. His officials said, “Your Majesty, we will look for a young woman to take care of you. She can lie down beside you and keep you warm.” They looked everywhere in Israel until they found a very beautiful young woman named Abishag, who lived in the town of Shunem. They brought her to David, and she took care of him.
Discuss.
Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh’s Batman The Dark Knight Rises Villain is a Liberal conspiracy!!!!!
Lawrence: Anti-tax lobbyist Grover Norquist’s worst nightmare….
Young Turks: Darcy Burner–the aggressive progressive.
Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.
Sam Seder: Nutcase IA Republican appoints herself Senator of Alt. USA.
Thom: How to marry a corporation.
ONN: Week in review.
Susie Sampson does The Young Turks.
Sam Seder: Shrub on his time as President: “8 years was awesome!”.
Thom and Pap: Bain connection to death squads.
Jon on Egyptian tomato throwers.
Mitt’s World:
Thom: Why would anyone proudly call themselves a Conservative?
Sam Seder with Matt Taibbi: You should be freaking out over LIBOR scandal!.
ONN: This week in history.
Thom: Justice Scalia tells America to, “Get over it”.
Michele Bachmann Investigates:
Young Turks: Oregon man strip for TSA.
Alyona: Texas Voter ID IS like a poll tax.
Ed and Pap: Gov. Rick Scott’s criminal history will doom voter purge.
White House: West Wing Week.
FAUX Lies:
Newsy: Nutcase Sheriff Arpaio claims Obama’s birth certificate is fake.
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Maddow: House GOP targets defenseless D.C. with anti-abortion agenda.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
This morning, The Stranger’s Dominic Holden wrote (my emphasis):
As Attorney General Rob McKenna explains this morning, “The national political debate sometimes oversimplifies and narrowly defines ‘women’s issues.'” That’s according to a press release that he didn’t send to The Stranger (but he did send to other media outlets) as part of his campaign to be Washington’s Republican governor.
So…McKenna is still singling out at least one media source and being an asshole to them.
But, since other media got the press release, The Stranger’s Cienna Madrid showed up as press. After all, it is in the public’s interest to understand the “nuance” of McKenna’s position on “women’s issues” like the Reproductive Parity Act. (Explaining his positions was the purpose of the event.) Here’s what happened:
And I’m sure I stood out in my Pretty-Woman-business-casual attire. Nevertheless, his staff greeted me with polite acceptance when I identified myself as press, so I’d bet other reporters were allowed in the Statewide Women’s Leadership Luncheon, where McKenna was enthusiastically unveiling the “key role” women would play in implementing his “New Direction for Washington State,” should he become our next governor.
But his staff became politely unhelpful as soon as I identified myself as a Stranger reporter.
“This is private event and not for press,” one staffer told me. “You’ll have to move elsewhere.”
Holy fuck! McKenna is either astonishingly petty, bizarrely paranoid, or is just fucking frightened of The Stranger!
That’s just Not Very Gubernatorial.
What would he do as Governor? How would a cowering, frightened Rob McKenna be able to hold a press conference where Cienna, or Eli, or Dominic, or (OH MY GAWD!) GOLDY was present.
He might just pee his pants. And in front of all the “good” press, too!
Mark my words. If Rob McKenna is elected Governor, he will institute a new press credentialing process that will exclude any and all access to his office by sources on his media enemies list. This is why all the media should be outraged and all over McKenna for selectively excluding the press.
For the rest of us, here is some homework: Go to twitter and make the #NotGubernatorial a local trending hash tag. Other tags you might include: #wagov #waelex @robmckenna
Update: In which they “forget” to invite The Stranger again, but Goldy goes anyway.
My questions in bold, Jessyn Farrell’s answers as they were sent.
1) The state’s paramount duty is education. Do you feel the state is living up to that duty? If not, what needs to happen to live up to it?
I am the mother of two small children. I went to public schools (in Lake Forest Park and the Shoreline District) and so will they. I want to reinvigorate our state commitment to public schools. I believe we need to provide adequate resources for all our schools and ensure that every child is healthy, safe, and prepared when he or she comes to school. The good news is that with the State Supreme Court McCleary decision there is a mandate in place to develop solutions. But a significant question is how do we build the political will to fully fund our paramount duty to our students without gutting the social safety net that helps our most vulnerable kids?
We will do this by building broad coalitions that support child-centered education and social safety-net policies, organizing community members across the state, and talking to voters about what their tax dollars pay for. My experience at the forefront of the transportation debate for nearly a decade, as an advocate at WashPIRG and as the Executive Director of Transportation Choices Coalition, gives me optimism that we can forge a path forward to comprehensive changes to how we fund education. A decade ago, the transportation discussion was characterized by big, seemingly intractable problems, but a decade later, we have made great progress, and are now doing things like building a light rail system across the region. We did this by working in coalition, organizing, and winning with the voters and I want to apply these same skills to the challenge of making sure we provide all kids in the state with a great education.
2) Washington State voters recently rejected an income tax. Most of the revenue that the legislature might be able to pass is quite regressive. Will you push for revenue, and if so, how will you make sure the burdens don’t fall on the poorest Washingtonians?
I have worked for almost a decade to reform transportation funding, which is regressive and constrains much of our investments to car-centric policies. In the last several years we have had some successes in finding more revenue sources to support transit and bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure but the majority of transit funding still comes from local sales tax, which is volatile and regressive.
Similarly, the state sales tax is unfairly regressive, and we must find alternative ways to fund public services. I want to participate in that discussion and am willing to pursue alternatives, such as closing tax loopholes. What I am NOT open to is the status quo. In my experience with passing eight transportation initiatives across the state is that voters do support taxes when they know what they are paying for and believe that government is accountable, transparent, and efficient in the delivery of programs.
3) There is a good chance that the State Senate and/or the Governor’s Mansion will be controlled by Republicans after the next election, and certainly most legislators will be more conservative than people who would be elected in a Seattle district. Given that how will you get your agenda passed?
Part of being able to win on behalf of King County and Seattle is being able to build strong relationships with legislators across the state. If elected, I would like to develop an “Urban Caucus” with colleagues from Spokane, Tacoma, Bellevue, and Vancouver to develop a joint agenda around education, transportation and social services. We simply need to make the pie bigger and end the zero-sum game that funding for important programs has become. We can do that by building broad coalitions, developing compelling messages for voters, and organizing communities across the state.
4) You’re running in a race with many Democrats who share similar positions. What separates you from the rest of the field?
There are three qualities that make me different: perseverance, the ability to build consensus, and optimism. I know that social change, especially in the legislative framework, can be agonizingly slow. It takes time to build and sustain coalitions, community support, and political will. The effectiveness of these characteristics is proven in my track record of getting things done.
As the Executive Director of the Transportation Choices Coalition and an advocate at WashPIRG, I led efforts to build broad coalitions of business, labor, public health and environmental leaders to advocate for major policy and funding victories including:
– over $25 billion in new funding for bus and rail transit, trip reduction incentives, and walking and bicycle infrastructure.
– Reforming state transportation goals to be people-focused instead of car-focused
5) Seattle and King County give more to the state than they get back. Part of this is reasonable things like the cost of providing education and social services in rural and suburban areas, but part of it is a lack of respect for Seattle and King County with the legislature that treats us as an ATM. How will you make sure your district gets its fair share of revenue without harming education or social services throughout the state?
As mentioned above, the key thing Seattle legislators can do is build relationships with other urban legislators across the state to build a consensus agenda for the unique needs of urban areas.
Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.
The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.
The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.
Results:
This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.
This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.
Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.
Update: More poll details here.
Here are some notes:
The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:
Close, huh?
Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.
Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.
The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”
A new SurveyUSA poll (for King 5) has been released in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D) and AG Rob McKenna (R). The poll of 630 registered Washington voters (4% MOE) has McKenna up by a hair: 42% to Inslee’s 41%.
A Monte Carlo analysis of the poll results that used a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 413,294 times and McKenna won 573,952 times. This suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would be the winner with a 58.1% probability and Inslee would win with a 41.9% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulations:
The new poll is a small improvement for Inslee, who was down by -2% and -3% in a pair of overlapping mid-June polls. The combined analysis of those two polls gave McKenna a 79.1% probability of beating Inslee in an election held in June.
Here is the polling history in the race to date:
Although the race has tightened up considerably since last fall, the graph suggests that McKenna still maintains a narrow, but real, edge in the race.
Strategies 360 has released a new poll for the new Washington first congressional district. The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4 MOE) was conducted from 15 to 17 July.
Here are the results (with “leaners”):
A couple of points. Susan DelBene has certainly moved up since the previous poll, but Darcy Burner still maintains a small edge.
Laura Ruderman, who seems to generate as much “buzz”—even before MotherGate—as Burner and DelBene, is surprisingly weak at 3%.
John Koster has dropped 10% since the previous poll.
With the ballots in the mail this week and voting starting, it sure looks like a November contest between Koster and Burner or Koster and DelBene.
But we should have some more evidence soon…at Drinking Liberally this Tuesday, Goldy mentioned two other (non-candidate) polls that were in the field.
What does this poll say about the general election? The above table shows that Hobbs has a very slight edge over the sum of votes for Democratic voters. Furthermore, Larry Ishmael, the independent, is a past Republican challenger to Rep. Jay Inslee in the first, so we can probably “re-purpose” his 2% to the Koster column. (This isn’t quite true…the the crosstabs show Ishmael has about twice as many progressive supporters as conservative supporters!) These numbers make the new 1st CD a split district with a slight Republican lean.
On the other hand, the self-reported partisan make-up in the sample favors Democrats by 43% to 39%:
The evidence in the crosstabs looks somewhat favorable for a future Democratic Representative in the 1st CD. Of that 26% who didn’t know or didn’t answer who they support, the numbers split almost identically between conservative and progressive (about 6.6% of the total sample for each group). Moderates who didn’t offer a preference make up just under 8% of the total sample, whereas moderates who did have a preference, prefer a Democrat to a Republican 3 to 1.
So…until we have more evidence, this general election looks like a tight race with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate.
– The Stranger’s primary endorsements.
– The Joe Paterno statue has to go.
– McKenna’s Aide resigns over those godawful tweets.
– Only 53% of people think Romney’s policies favor the wealthy?
– It’s over a year later and having my abortion was the best thing I did.
– Tomorrow is a good day to volunteer at parks in Seattle.
With Obama continuing to press Romney to release his tax returns, the speculation about what’s in them is running rampant. Maybe it’s something that’s basically reasonable if you’re a business person but tough to explain when we hold you to a higher standard trying to become leader of the free world. Maybe it’s more tax shelters. Maybe there’s evidence of fraud, or something else horrible.
Obviously, my speculation is as much as anyone else’s just speculation. But I think it probably leans to the worse side of the equation. In fact, think of the worst thing you can that might be in those taxes he refuses to release. Mitt Romney would rather you have that in your mind than the knowable, actual truth. Seems like if everything was fine, or if it was just a bit tough to explain, he’d rather have you know the truth.
There were some “legs” on the story of McKenna’s young staffer who made some unfortunate Tweets.
That’s the “big story” in the region’s media this week, but I think the media has missed the real story.
Kathlyn Ehl, who recently graduated from the UW, was hired by the McKenna campaign. But while she was a student, she created these cringe-worthy tweets:
Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
shut up and speak english #asians
and
Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
If it takes you an entire green light to walk in front of my car, GET A WHEELCHAIR #toooldtowalk
The tweets were brought to light on Slog.
Given how the press initially ignored stories like a County Executive candidate who punched his mother, and a Lands Commissioner engaging in sexual harassment, I figured the press would completely ignore this story…at least for a few days. In the mean time, the McKenna campaign would “disappear” the offending tweets and, perhaps, the staffer, without comment.
But the media has been over it. KUOW put it in their top-o-the-hour newscasts. Other media sources carried the KOMO story or the AP release. Even the Seattle Times had a story up by Monday evening.
Monday afternoon, the McKenna campaign did its own press release:
The tweets sent by a member of my campaign staff, Kathlyn Ehl, which were reported today were offensive and inappropriate. I am glad to see that she has apologized for her actions,” the statement reads. “The fact that she made the comments before joining my campaign does not make them any less hurtful to Asian Americans and the elderly. They were insensitive and wrong regardless of their context. She has done the right thing by apologizing. I am hopeful that she has learned a humbling lesson that will give her greater perspective about having charity in her heart when considering the challenges faced by others.
And by this morning, the offending policy assistant was gone, as was revealed by another McKenna campaign press release.
So, good on you, media, for even noticing. I’m not sure what the lesson is from that except, perhaps, that Anthony Weiner might still be in Congress if he had had the foresight to beat the shit out of someone instead of tweeting a photo of his bulging briefs.
But here’s what I think is the part of this story that should outrage the fuck out of the media (emphasis added):
Oddly, even though McKenna’s comments respond directly to a story we broke, his campaign did not send the statement to The Stranger. Instead, we obtained them from another source.
…and this…
I’ve posted [the McKenna campaign’s] statement—which, of course, the McKenna campaign didn’t send to The Stranger, even though we broke this story….
REALLY, McKenna??? Fucking REALLY?!? You want to be Governor of our state, and you persist in having a media “enemies list?”
This certainly paints him a small, petty man who lacks the temperament to be Governor.
McKenna believes he can pick who is and isn’t media and who is and isn’t a reporter.
What I don’t understand is why the area’s media allow McKenna to get away unscathed with this kind of bullshit.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!