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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleWe’re in the final weeks of the 2016 General Elections and the ballots have dropped win Washington state. Isn’t this a good time for a drink? The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of politics over a pint.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

https://youtu.be/XvgnOqcCYCM




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 188 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Poll Analysis: The Washington Gubernatorial Race

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I’ve largely neglected local and statewide races this election season. No particular reason, although I haven’t felt that the Republican candidates in the Senate and Gubernatorial races have run particularly strong campaigns.

I guess it isn’t too late though. And today’s Elway poll piqued my interest in the Gubernatorial race. The race matches up Gov. Jay Inslee (D) against challenger Bill Bryant (R).

The poll, conducted from 20 Oct. to 22 Oct on 502 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.5%. Of the 502 respondents, 452 are either for Inslee or Bryant. Inslee received 256 “votes” (51.0%) and Bryant received 196 “votes” (39.0%), with Other or Undecided at 50 “votes” (10.0%). When we normalize the results to just Inslee and Bryant “votes,” Inslee gets 56.6% and Bryant gets 43.4%

I did a Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000,000 simulated elections. The final tally gave Inslee 975,893 wins and Bryant 22,276 wins. In other words, if an election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 97.8% probability, and Bryant with a 2.2% probability.

The probability distribution of electoral vote outcomes pretty much tells the story:

octelway

The previous poll, by Strategies 360 taken from 29 Sep to 3 Oct, gave similar results. The poll surveyed 500 individuals (4.4% MOE) and found Inslee at 50% to Bryant’s 40%, with 10% undecided.

With two weeks to go and ballots already being returned, it seems like Inslee is quite likely to serve a second term.

Üpen Thread

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You probably should have your ballot by now if you’re living in Washington. Here are the locations to drop them off in King County. Otherwise, have them postmarked by the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

Damn, there’s a lot on my ballot. I hesitate to even call it downballot, since there are so many initiatives, charter amendments, and whatnot before President. And there are far too many non-partisan positions or people from the same party on my ballot. If it’s all too confusing, The Stranger, Seattlish, and Washington NARAL help sort through the confusion with their endorsements, voter guides, etc.

HA Bible Study: Genesis 6:1-4

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Genesis 6:1-4
And it came to pass, when men began to multiply on the face of the earth, and daughters were born unto them, that the sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair; and they took them wives of all which they chose.

And the LORD said, My spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be an hundred and twenty years.

There were giants in the earth in those days; and also after that, when the sons of God came in unto the daughters of men, and they bare children to them, the same became mighty men which were of old, men of renown.

Discuss.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen helps Obama polish his résumé.

John Oliver: Third Parties.

Captain Khan:

Alternatino: An interview with Mussolini.

Colbert: Julian Assange cannot leak any more emails.

Minute Physics: How entropy powers the earth.

The 2016 Alt-Right Sexual Predator Show:

Mental Floss: 26 facts about the science of family.

A Woman’s Guide to the White House.

Kimmel’s week in unnecessary censorship.

Colbert: Pretty much everybody was on Hillary Clinton’s list of potential VPs.

Bill Maher: A bone to pick with undecided voters.

This is Your Debate on Drugs:

White House: West Wing Week.

On October surprises.

Stephen considers fleeing America.

Undecided voters.

Ohio for President.

Kimmel: A message from Canada to America.

Trevor: Clinton’s leaked emails.

Robert Reich: How Democrats take back the Senate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Open Bread

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I’ve been trying to articulate this, because it’s really not how debates are supposed to work. And in normal times, maybe a bar this low wouldn’t apply. But in all 3 of the debates, I’ve been very impressed with Hillary Clinton saying things I disagree with:

After the first debate, a lot of liberals complained about her position on NAFTA. Fair, enough, I thought she was wrong on the policy. But I also appreciated her defense of trade more generally and of what future trade policies should look like. You can, and should, argue the policy but she clearly knew what she was talking about, and I hope we can hold her to that in future trade negotiations.

In the second and third debates, Syria policy came up. In the second debate, there was discussion of arming the rebels. Those rebels are probably better people than the current regime, but honestly it’s not our place to arm them. There’s also considerable possibility of blowback and of those weapons ending up in the wrong hands (and that could include the hands we gave them to, 20 years on). That said, Trump was complaining about the policy and he said “She doesn’t even know who the rebels are” and after a lot of Trump nonsense, including a back and forth with one of the moderators, Clinton casually explained who she would arm and why, when I think most people would have just let it go.

In the third debate they discussed a no fly zone. From my perspective, this is a bad use of American military. It’s an act of war, and I think it makes things worse. But I also appreciated her discussion of what the goals of an no fly zone would be and the diplomacy would look like to put it in place.

This is running pretty long for an open thread, so I’ll stop it here: I don’t think I’ll ever have a candidate who I agree with on all the issues, but when I watch Hillary Clinton speak, I’m at least glad that it’s her, smart, competent, prepared, even when I disagree.

Poll Analysis: The race stabilizes

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Clinton
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes
Mean of 200 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The analysis on Monday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with a greater than 99.9% probability of winning an election held now, and with a mean electoral vote of 338 for Clinton to 200 for Trump.

We’ve gotten about 49 new polls since then. A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections has Clinton winning all 100,000 times. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning. Clinton received (on average) 338 to Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

In other words, even with plenty of new polls, the race has stabalized.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Oct 2015 to 20 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Debate Three Open Thread

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Okay…here we go. Debate three has the potential to be insane. Please discuss.

[5:45] We have CNN on at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern. The banner says “BREAKING: Debate to start momentarily”. “Breaking”??? I don’t think so.

6:05: Play ball!

6:08: “My opponent said bad things about me and millions of people.” What the fuck is Trump babbling about. The question is about the Supreme Court!

6:10: Oooohhhh…he is talking about a Justice (bad audio here). Still…totally off-track to bring this up. Make him look petty as fuck.

6:19: Except for Trumps little tangent about Ginsburg, this is a pretty ordinary debate. Oops…Trump’s turn.

6:22: We have The Sniff.

6:24: Please, Hillary, no anecdotes.

6:25: Hillary is starting to troll Trump. Waiting for a Trump Sniff…er…meltdown.

6:27: Trump Tower built with undocumented workers–Clinton trolls again. Trump keeps it under control.

6:30: Wallace gets pissed at Clinton and he abandons his impartial role and points out her with bank speaker fees. Pathetic!

6:32: Donald is starting to go CRAZY with the SNIFFS! He’s rattled! Point Clinton!

6:33: Trump goes NUTZ!!!

6:35: Trump claims Clinton has been outsmarted worse than anyone ever. Of course…she beating him….

6:36: Clinton trolls over nuclear codes…Sniffles to follow.

6:37: Chris Wallace should ask candidates about their views instead of stating their views…

6:40: Why does Trump deny knowing his “stablemate”, Putin?

6:42: True fact: In 2008, Clinton stated in a debate against Obama, that she would renegotiate NAFTA.

6:47: Trump, “I pass factories”. Yep…Big Asshole!

6:49: Clinton trolls Trump again with shipping jobs to Mexico. He sniffs.

6:57: “Nobody has more respect for women than I do.” The pub breaks out laughing.

6:58 Trump claims Clinton lied “hundreds of times to the FBI”. *SNIFF* I think that means he is lying.

7:05: Clinton brings out the big guns, “…hasn’t released his tax returns.”

7:06: “Built with Chinese steel.” Ouch!

7:07: Concession question: Trump, “I’ll look it at the time” Totally disqualifying.

7:09: Trump: Clinton is guilty of a crime. Umm…no she isn’t. We have a constitutionally defined process for making this determination.

7:10: Trump (on no Emmy): “I should-a gotten it!” #whiner #wanker #notserious

7:14: Fortunately, concession is a mere courtesy. It is totally unnecessary, although it sends a terrible message to the people.

7:17: Clinton points out Trump supported Iraq. He barks “wrong” twice in the exact same place he did last debate!!!

7:18: Clinton trolls Trump until he just blows up! Starts babbling.

7:19: Okay…now Trump is debating Chris Wallace. Cool.

7:20: 🎼 ♫ If you’ve ever seen Aleppo clap your hands. ♪

7:26: I wonder if Trump thinks GDP stands for “Good Damn P***Y”

7:27: “…and the unicorns will, once again, roam the great plains.”

7:31 :Trump has no clue about the issues facing Social Security.

7:32: Trump says he is happy that health insurance premiums are going up. #gofuckyourself

7:37: Trump: “All she has done is talk to THE African Americans” #ThatsHowRacistsTalk

Conclusion: all anyone is going to talk about is Donald’s refusal to commit to concession. But the fact is, this is the least important thing about this debate. Concession is a tradition, but has no legal or constitutional meaning. It is just a convention and courtesy. The only person who will suffer from a lack of concession will be Mr. Trump.

I hope the media and social media gets past this and talks about important things.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle (and Wednesday debate watching party)

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DLBottleThe Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate over drinks. We start at 8:00pm.

And then come back on Wednesday night for another episode of Crazy Guy pretends to be a Presidential Candidate. That’s right, we’ll be getting together to watch the third Presidential Debate. It starts at 6:00pm.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern.

For Wednesday’s debate, please note that the audio of the debate may not be perfect. We expect that almost every TV in the joint will be on the debate, but there will be cheers and jeers and all the other sounds of a working pub. If you really must hear every word, consider bringing a radio and headphones.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other Living Liberally meetings happening over the next week. There are 185 chapters, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Poll Analysis: Small changes

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Clinton
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes
Mean of 200 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis from 4 days ago showed Sec. Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, with a >99.9% probability of winning an election last week. Clinton’s mean electoral vote total was 335 and Trump’s was 203.

With a pile of new polls released since then, things haven’t changed a whole lot. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins all 100,000 times. Clinton received (on average) 338 (+3) to Trump’s 200 (-3) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would still have a > 99.9% probability of beating Trump.

There are a few things to highlight for this analysis.

Two new polls have come in from Arizona, and Clinton leads each. The oldest poll is a tie, and the newest three have Clinton at +2%, +1%, and +2%. This slight lead has slightly raised Clinton’s probability of taking the state from 60.8% to 65.8%. This is barely better than a tie, but the fact that a Democrat is leading in Arizona is nothing short of remarkable.

In Colorado, two polls with Trump up age out, and one new poll is added. The four current polls have Clinton up +11%, +11%, +0% (tie), and +8%. Consequently, Clinton’s chances have gone from 81.8% to 98.9% of winning the state today.

clintontrump17sep16-17oct16colorado

We have nine current polls in Florida, and eight of the polls have Clinton up. The one new poll has her up +4%. Overall, Clinton’s chances go from 91.8% to 94.2% in Florida.

We see a slight shift in Georgia, where Trump’s chances have dropped from 98.7% to 93.2%. This is entirely an artifact of 6 old polls dropping out and a new one coming in. The new poll has Trump up by +5.5%.

Minnesota has shifted in Trump’s favor, on account of a new Gravis poll that has the state tied. The other two current polls have Clintion up by +6.9% and 6%. The Gravis poll looks like an outlier.

clintontrump17sep16-17oct16minnesota

Two new Nevada polls join five other polls. Clinton has small leads in five of the seven polls, and the other two are ties. Clinton’s chances rise from 76.6% to 82.9% in the state.

clintontrump17sep16-17oct16nevada

In North Carolina, one poll ages out and three new polls weigh in. Clinton leads in all nine current polls, typically with small leads. Her chances have gone up from a 86% to a 92.3% probability.

clintontrump17sep16-17oct16north-carolina

A new South Carolina poll has Trump leading by +15.4%, raising his chances to 100% from 76%.

Utah has had some interesting polling, including a tie last week. Today, a Rasmussen poll with Trump up +2% joined a third poll with Trump at +6% to raise his chances of winning from 76.9% to 81.4%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 17 Oct 2015 to 17 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

0p3n Thr3@d

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Did anyone else catch the Senate debate? The format was not particularly healthy. It didn’t allow for much of a back and forth. It didn’t even have them answering the same question.

I learned that Chris Vance wants to lower our national debt by lowering tax rates (and closing loopholes). I’m pretty sure that won’t work. Also, he’d raise the retirement age for Social Security. Patty Murray wants to raise the cap so wealthy people pay more into the Social Security Trust Fund and won’t support increasing the retirement age.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Seth Meyers: Joe and Jill Biden.

White House Watch: The sniff test.

Minute Physics: Where does complexity come from?

The GOP Sexual Predator Show:

Slate: FAUX News didn’t air Michelle Obama’s speech.

John Oliver on Guantánamo.

The Oval Office guide to sexual harassment.

Chris Hayes: Idiot Limbaugh thinks the “Left” is obsessed with consent.

Four Weeks To Go: Top Senate challengers and vulnerable House incumbents

Clinton versus The G(r)OP(er):

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Giuliani claims Clinton wasn’t there after 9/11, except there is a photo of them.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Mental Floss: 29 spin-offs that almost happened.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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