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One would think something like Inslee’s proposal for an Economic Competitiveness and Development office would be the sort of thing that Rob McKenna would mostly ignore because it’s bland and obvious: the government should do more to help grow the economy, especially in areas where we can press our advantages. It’s, in short not the issue you’d think McKenna would want to draw a distinction. But:

A TV ad from Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna features a small business owner mocking Democrat Jay Inslee for part of his jobs plan: a new government office dedicated to helping businesses

Hmm. Well, I think that would backfire on its merits. Again, the government might help small businesses isn’t exactly a monster under the bed type story. But, it turns out that this particular small business owner had help from the government.

But elsewhere Bresheare has had great praise for one government office that helped her business, along with many others. She’s featured on the website of the Small Business Development Center at Western Washington University, complimenting the advice she’s received there (a fact pointed out by the Inslee campaign).

Those small-business centers are a partnership of the federal Small Business Administration and the state, and they offer services such as aid in writing a business plan or obtaining financing. The services are publicly funded and provided at no charge to small business owners.

Look, of course there’s room for debate about what are the best programs to help grow the economy and individual businesses. And, yes, sometimes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. Still, the facts remain: very often government at all levels helps businesses.

Until the end of the conventions, it was not uncommon to see a media article about how close the presidential race was at the time. If anything, the articles were based on national head-to-head polls, and generally showed Obama a point or two ahead of Romney.

Since the conventions, Obama has been gaining ground in the national polls. In fact, the last such poll that wasn’t Rasmussen that showed Romney with a lead was this Gallup Tracking poll from late August.

If you’ve followed my, or almost anyone else’s, analyses of state head-to-head polls it is no secret that Romney is in deep trouble. No matter what the national polls say, it is the electoral college (and, in a tie, the House…and, you know, sometimes the Supreme Court) that elects the President. The simulated electoral college contest has Romney losing consistently and badly this entire election season.

The reason appears to be that Obama is polling stronger in swing states. Credit for this has been attributed to a better-than-average economy in particular swing states, and to the Obama campaign’s early advertising blitz that started defining Romney even before he was the party’s nominee (and with a little help from Romney’s Republican opponents).

The other explanation, which is more of an amusement than a real explanation, is that the polls are all skewed! It’s attributed to the polling this year being “the worst it’s ever been” by political pundit and lower phalange fetishist Dick Morris.

Alternatively, it is a vast left wing media conspiracy!!!1!1! Politico has a nice write-up about Teh Great Polling Conspiracy of 2012. I think Josh Marshall summarized it best:

…having been through several of these cycles, if you’re theory is based on systemic error on the part of basically all pollsters, you’re in for a long election night.

So the following information can be read in two ways. If you think the polls, when taken en masse come out about right, on average, then I will present to you a measure of just how badly Romney is losing. If you are a Poll Truther, the following information provides solid evidence of just how skewed the polls are (if you presume Romney is really leading).

Here’s what I did. I took the results of last night’s analyses (umm…after the correction). And I reran the analysis, adding a bias in Romney’s favor to each poll included in the analysis. The bias (or skew) was a fixed percentage. I began an 0% and stepped up by 1% at a time through 10%. Here is a summary of the results for Obama’s median electoral votes with 95% confidence intervals:

The graph is clear…to eke out a win, Romney has to move the electorate across the board by a remarkable 6%. That is, he is 6% behind in the polling now. That is a larger margin than the 3.5% margin in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. That’s because the math of the electoral college places more importance on certain states—and Romney need to do more to win those states.

To win with at least a 95% probability, Romney needs to shift things by 8%. To have the kind of lead that Obama now enjoys—with a solid 100% probability of winning—Romney needs a 10% shift.

Of course, this model is a bit simplified—I skew every poll for all states. It isn’t all states that have to be moved; rather it’s just a handful of “important states” that need moving. I mean, skewing Utah and Mississippi doesn’t really accomplish anything for Romney, and Massachusetts and D.C. aren’t going to be swung over no way, no how.

Here is the electoral map of a Romney victory scenario—presuming he moves voters in his favor by 6%:

Ohio and Pennsylvania plain gone—the polling now suggests they are out of reach for Romney even in this most extreme scenario where he shifts everything by 6%. Instead, a “Romeny + 6%” victory includes Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Oh…and Nebraska-2, which is tied when we remove the skew.

I’m not suggesting the election is over. But it looks like Romney has an almost insurmountable task ahead of him if he is to leave the rolls of the unemployed.

– I didn’t watch the game because of the scab refs. Did anything happen?

– I’ve never heard Seattle Center called Seattle’s Living Room.

– But the reality is that Chick-fil-A showed that their flawed value having kitchen is filthy and I’m not going to forget that shit just because they are now saying they won’t allow filth mongers back there anymore.

– Just open the plane windows

– The avenging uterus.

Patty Murray’s press release about the GOP killing the Veterans Jobs Corps Act.

“It’s both shocking and shameful that Republicans today chose to kill a bill to put America’s veterans back to work. At a time when one in four young veterans are unemployed, Republicans should have been able, for just this once, to put aside the politics of obstruction and to help these men and women provide for their families.

“But this vote is stark reminder that Senator McConnell and Senate Republicans are willing to do absolutely anything to fulfill the pledge he made nearly two years ago to defeat President Obama. It doesn’t matter who gets in their way or which Americans they have to sacrifice in that pursuit, even if it’s our nation’s veterans.

“It’s unbelievable that even after more than a decade of war many Republicans still will not acknowledge that the treatment of our veterans is a cost of war. Today they voted down a fully paid for bill that included bipartisan ideas to put veterans in jobs that will allow them to serve their communities. Jobs that would have helped provide veterans with the self-esteem that is so critical to their successful transition home.

“Today Senate Republicans told the less than 1% of Americans who have spent the last decade serving and sacrificing for the other 99% of Americans that they are not willing to honor that sacrifice with new investments in their well-being when they return home.”

I hate that we went to war in Iraq. I hate that the war in Afghanistan is still going on (and I wasn’t happy with it from the beginning, although unlike Iraq, I understood the case for it). But as long as we decide to go to war, we’d damn well better make sure we do right by the people who fight it.

Mitt Romney has a blunder problem.

It started years ago, but it really seem to take off with Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom’s, “It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch” comment. Since then, we’ve had “7-11 cookie gate,” Mitt dissing the Olympics host country’s preparedness for the games, mentioning the head of MI-6, and so on.

Until recently, most of the blunders haven’t been substantively rich. (A couple of exceptions: “Corporations are people too, my friend!” and an old Op-Ed with the title, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!”.)

But the two most recent blunders are really different—they are likely to leave a lasting and meaningfully negative impression of Romney in the minds of many Americans.

The botched statement following the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in Libya was factually wrong, repulsively insensitive, and wholly unpresidential. It was a sign of a campaign in desperation, trying anything to the exclusion of taste, good judgement, dignity, and statesmanship.

Mitt’s Blunder of the Week this week reveals Mitt Romney to be a duplicitous asshole. He was caught dissing 47% of Americans—saying things he would never say out in the open—to an elite group of wealthy donors at a $50,000-a-plate fundraiser.

Romney’s statement removed all doubt that he has contempt for less fortunate Americans and views their circumstance not even with indifference, but as some sort of blight on the rest of America.

We now have a couple of polls to assess the negative effect of Romney’s statement on people:

Reuters/Ipsos: The statement makes 43% of voters viewed Mitt Romney less favorably.
Reuters/Ipsos: 59% felt Romney was unfairly dismissing a big chunk of Americans as victims.
Gallup poll: The statement makes 36% less likely to vote for him.
Gallup poll: The statement makes 20% more likely to vote for him.

The effect on the race? Although the latest blunders will not be fully captured in aggregate state head-to-head polling for a couple of weeks, we can look at other more immediate indicators.

The average of national polls has moved in Obama’s favor over the past week. The Real Clear Politics average has moved up from a tie two weeks ago to about a +3% advantage for Obama. Likewise, Intrade Prediction Market has seen Obama’s share price surge to its highest median price ever.

Mitt Romney just pulled a reverse Etch-A-Sketch. He has been tacking back to the center from his “severely conservative” (a.k.a. Teabaggy) position he needed to get him through the G.O.P. primary. He has now “reset” himself to a position that is far to the right of most Americans.

He’s no longer viable.

What remains to be seen, is how much down-ballot damage he can cause….

Joel Connelly reports on Archbishop of Seattle, J. Peter Sartain’s opposition to marriage equality.

God is the “author of marriage,” the archbishop argues in the video, posted on the Archdiocese of Seattle website.

The state’s three Catholic dioceses are intensifying their campaign against same-sex marriage in the form of bishop’s statements, “teaching” documents and videos — none of which show up in report’s to the state’s Public Disclosure Commission.

Yet, the instruction of how to vote is unmistakable in Sartain’s video, which can be viewed at http://www.seattlearchdiocese.org/Conscience/Statements.aspx He says:

“We urge our Catholic people to uphold our consistent Catholic teaching on marriage for the good of the Church, society, husbands and wives and their children. Therefore, we bishops reject the redefinition of marriage as a ‘civil contract between two persons’.”

Well, the marriage in a church isn’t a civil contract. So when you marry a lady and a gent, they’ll be married in the eyes of God. If that’s meaningful to them, well, great. But those people have always had the opportunity for their marriage to just be a contract. If R-74 passes, it’ll just expand that to gay couples too, but the Catholic Church can keep not marrying gay people.

Now, don’t get me wrong: I hope the Church will reconsider who they marry, if R-74 passes or not. They’re simply wrong about this one. Every time they say a gay relationship is less than a straight one, it’s harmful to the least among us*, and it’s awful when a Christian organization does that. But that’s their right, if R-74 passes or not.

* There was some discussion in the comments, so just to be clear: gay and lesbian couples are as legitimately couples as any other. I was referring to how society generally treats them, and the Church’s obligations to its members who are considered less than by society. The wording made it sound like I might think gay couples are less than or that they ought to be considered less than, and that’s not the case.

– Romney said some awful things to his wealthy supporters.

– But of course, both sides do it.

– 4755 Fauntleroy development: 1st look at street-level ‘concepts’

– Today in No Shit, Sherlock.

– Don’t throw tomatoes at the Vancouver Education Association.

– Candy corn is a flavor that doesn’t work in candy corn. Maybe don’t add it to Oreos.

I love that a UW student won gold at the Paralympic games:

Meg Fisher won gold in the women’s road race time trial at the London Paralympic Games earlier this month.

A Physical Therapy doctorate student at UW, Fisher hails from Missoula, Montana. She documents her athletic endeavors on her blog and on Twitter at @GoMegFisher.

Today, she is at the White House getting hugs from our nation’s leaders:

Yesterday Jim McDermott introduced a bill aimed at making sure America has enough primary care doctors in the future. From his press release:

Modeled after the successful ROTC program, RDOCS offers full scholarships to medical students in exchange for a 5-year service commitment in a medically underserved area. RDOCS will be administered by the states, which will send RDOCS scholars to their state-operated medical schools. RDOCS officers (as they are known after graduation) will then become licensed and serve as primary-care doctors in their state of residence. The program is authorized to start immediately and begin graduating its first additional 4,000 new primary-care doctors in 2020, and 20,000 new doctors by 2024.

McDermott added, “Thanks to the Affordable Care Act, we are going to get close to universal health coverage in the United States. But universal coverage will not be meaningful if we don’t have enough doctors to serve our population. I am optimistic that Congress can demonstrate leadership in restoring our doctor workforce for the next generation.”

Fantastic. This is yet another way we’re going to have to make sure the Affordable Care Act works. We’re going to have to make sure there are enough doctors in the country. But, of course, the Republicans control the House of Representatives, so Joel Connelly isn’t sure about its ability to pass.

McDermott is a senior member of the tax-writing House Ways & Means Committee. When Democrats held a majority, he co-authored (with Republican Rep. Jerry Weller of Illinois) legislation that enacted a sweeping overhaul of foster care in America.

The fate of RDOCs, in a polarized House, is less certain. The House is spending less than one-third of 2012 in session.

Sure, that too. I don’t have anything like a whip count, but it seems like a worthy thing.

I was not aware of the Washington Safe Routes to School program before today.

Washington’s Safe Routes to School program provides technical assistance and resources to cities, counties, schools, school districts and state agencies for improvements that get more children walking and bicycling to school safely, reduce congestion around schools, and improve air quality.

But as these things go far too often, I’m only hearing about this worthwhile program as it faces going away. Transportation for Washington are trying to save it, and they have a letter you can send to Governor Gregoire.

Right now, Governor Gregoire has a choice. She can slash funding that gives tens of thousands of children the opportunity to walk and bike to school. Or she can keep funding the state’s Safe Routes to School program that improves our children’s safety and health. The Governor must make her decision by October 1.

Yes, I know: there are so many great, so many worthy programs out there. And they’re all in trouble in the current economic climate, and bullshit way we raise revenue in this state slower than economic growth. But, this is a worthy program, and I think it deserves the fight too.

My advice, as always, when an activist group has a form letter is to make it your own. Especially the first line or two, because the intern or staffer who is getting a bunch of these has already read the letter as a form letter, and the more you just copy and paste, the less they’re inclined to read it again.

It seems like for as long as I can remember, People For Puget Sound have been a part of the environmental community. Putting pressure and getting things done for the good. So it’ll be sad to see them go.

Despite these achievements, People For Puget Sound is at a crucial juncture. Recent and current economic realities have constrained our ability to raise necessary funds to keep the organization moving forward independently. In light of these difficult economic circumstances and the urgent need to continue our work, the board of directors has determined that the best course of action in service to our mission is to transition our programs to other organizations that embrace our commitment to Puget Sound. We are pleased to share that we are in the process of negotiating with two well-respected organizations that will enable our work to continue into the future.

We are planning to add our policy expertise, grassroots strength, advocacy, and education know-how to expand Washington Environmental Council’s work to protect Puget Sound. We are also in discussions about transitioning our restoration projects to EarthCorps, a long-term People For Puget Sound partner, which would enable them to expand their portfolio of projects in Puget Sound. Both of these venerable organizations are passionate about stopping the flow of polluted runoff into the Sound, restoring critical habitat, protecting shorelines, and preserving Puget Sound for generations to come. We are confident that they will be able to efficiently and effectively carry our mission forward.

– It’s going to be a long season if the Seahawks can’t even win with a free timeout from the scab refs.

– It’s Time to Freak Out About Climate Change

– The Battle Cry of Freedom is a Republican song, but maybe it’s time for the Democrats to appropriate it.

– I wouldn’t say it’s time for a new party, but Democrats should embrace their urban ideals.

– A call for help putting up flags at the West Seattle Junction.

– I saw Samsara at Cinerama over the weekend, and it was quite spectacular.

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Pearl of Great Price, Abraham 3:9
And thus there shall be the reckoning of the time of one planet above another, until thou come nigh unto Kolob, which Kolob is after the reckoning of the Lord’s time; which Kolob is set nigh unto the throne of God, to govern all those planets which belong to the same order as that upon which thou standest.

Discuss.

In Tampa, the Republican argument against the president’s re-election was actually pretty simple—pretty snappy. It went something like this: We left him a total mess. He hasn’t cleaned it up fast enough. So fire him and put us back in.

Now, there were two other attacks on the president in Tampa I think deserve an answer. First, both Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan attacked the president for allegedly robbing Medicare of $716 billion. That’s the same attack they leveled against the Congress in 2010, and they got a lot of votes on it. But it’s not true.

Here’s what really happened. There were no cuts to benefits at all. None. What the president did was to save money by taking the recommendations of a commission of professionals to cut unwarranted subsidies to providers and insurance companies that were not making people healthier and were not necessary to get the providers to provide the service.

And instead of raiding Medicare, he used the savings to close the doughnut hole in the Medicare drug program and—you all got to listen carefully to this; this is really important—and to add eight years to the life of the Medicare trust fund so it is solvent till 2024.

So President Obama and the Democrats didn’t weaken Medicare; they strengthened Medicare. Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, the biggest, coldest power play, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry because that $716 billion is exactly, to the dollar, the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget. You got to get one thing—it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did.

(Full text).

Yesterday, coming home from Drinking Liberally, I was reading the paper version of the New York Times. And I guess it was seeing all of the headlines for the Op-Ed columnists all together. I noticed that all the headlines were shit.

They’re Not What They Used to Be doesn’t tell you what “they” refers to. People over 30 will say that about just about anything if given the opportunity. Maybe say “conventions” in the headline. The Elevator Speech refers to a common phrase that BoBo mentions in the piece. But again, it’s a common enough phrase, especially in the business world that just using that as the headline doesn’t actually tell you anything. The Hex on Paul Ryan is the least terrible of the headlines, and it’s not particularly good either. I guess you could probably guess that the hex is being picked as VP, but the piece probably spent more time on Biden than Ryan, so maybe something more VP related would be better.