Debate open thread

The last in a series of presidential debates is on tonight, featuring President Barack Hussein Obama II (D) and former Massachusetts Governor Willard Mitt Romney (R).

This debate will focus on foreign policy. But since Willard has little foreign policy experience beyond a courtesy visit to London (plus Israel and Poland) so that he could totally avoid watch Ann’s dressage horse compete in the Olympics, be prepared for the candidates to twist everything back into domestic issues.

I’ll be at the Montlake Ale House liveblogging as I can. Please join me there, or have fun in the comment threads, if you prefer.

6:04: Romney wins!!!! (the coin toss.)

6:05: Mitt opens with a lot of babbling and proclaims, “We can’t kill out of this mess.” Uh-huh.

6:08: “Gov. Romney, you strategy has been all over the map.” Certainly is was based on his opening answer.

6:09: Mitt wants “Gender equality”. Does he really know what he is saying? But this second answer is so babbly it’s hard to know what he is saying.

6:12: Obama hits Romney HARD on his inconsistent positions on foreign policy.

6:13: Romney hits Obama back on the “after the election” comment to Putin.

6:15: After a short bicker-fest, Obama comes out with a pretty coherent positive agenda.

6:18: Romney doesn’t have a plan for Syria…he just regurgitates factoids about the situation. Then, when he gets down to “action” points, his plan is what the Obama administration is ACTUALLY DOING RIGHT NOW. Sheesh!

6:21: Obama complements Romney on supporting the Obama administration on Libya and then punches him in the nose on his “mission creep” statement.

6:23: Mitt Romney tells us what “we all hear intelligence sources saying”. Damn…I can’t say…left my national security briefing binder at home.

6:27: Mitt declares himself a peacenik

6:28: Both candidates work in domestic issues. Obama did a better job sneaking it in. Romney criticizes the sequestration cuts…as if that’s Obama’s doing!

6:30: Mitt gives a speech directed toward the Priests of the Military Industrial Complex.

6:31: Obama does it again—turning the debate into a list of his accomplishments.

6:32: Obama hits below the belt…”[Romney] praised George Bush for his economic stewardship and Dick Cheney for ….”

6:34: Romney said “teacher’s unions” and Obama looked down! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooo……!!!!!!

6:36: We are now on the topic on whether class size makes a difference. In Afghanistan?!?

6:37: Obama gets surly while Romney babbles on about “his” education successes in MA.

6:39: No, Governor, we cannot afford to repeal Obamacare.

6:40: Obama gets his do-over from Debate 1: “five trillion dollar tax cuts…military spending that the military isn’t asking for…”

6:41: I’m watching NBC. Why is Obama on the right and Romney on the left? This is a conspiracy!!!!

6:42: Romney, “I balanced the budget for the Olympics”. Yes…Governor, with a little help of your taxpayer friends.

6:43: Obama finally defends himself against Romney’s bullshit of blaming Obama for sequestration cuts.

6:44: Obama lands a left hook with the “horses and bayonettes” zinger. Perhaps the best zinger of all three debates!

6:48: Mitt’s flaggey-flag pin is bigger. Obviously, he loves America more.

6:49: Mitt Romney thinks Ahmadinejad has committed more war crimes and crimes against humanity than George W. Bush and Dick Fucking Cheney???? Very curious.

6:51: We have about 20 folks at the Ale House who are, apparently, here for the debate.

6:54: Note to Obama…watch out for Tagg Romney running toward you….

6:55: Obama contrasts his visit to Israel with Romney’s…it seems pretty effective!

6:59: Mitt lets us know he has “a relationship with the Prime Minister of Israel.” No doubt he cultivated that relationship the same way he cultivated a relationship with the Prime Minister of the U.K.

7:01: Obama goes after Romney hard on his flip flopping. I noticed, he always ends those bits with a positive message. Good debate coaching.

7:04: Mitt just told all the terrorists when he will pull out of Afghanistan. Why does he hate our soldiers?

7:08: Bob: “Obama bin Laden”

7:10: I’ve heard Mitt say lots of things about Pakistan, but I am still not sure where he stands and what he would do?

7:11: Mitt drones on about his support for Drones. But, but, but, I thought we couldn’t “kill our way out of this”

7:14: Trending on Twitter (US): #horsesandbayonets

7:18: Via Twitter:

Abby Huntsman ‏@HuntsmanAbby
I’ve never heard two candidates agree more during what is suppose to be a “debate.”

7:17: Mitt wants to label China a “currency manipulator.” That will bring them to their knees.

7:21: Obama pushes the “Romney has bad political instincts” meme: outsourcing, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”, etc.

7:23: Mitt: “I would do nothing to hurt Detroit.” Obama calls him out on that bullshit.

7:25: “Governor, you keep on trying to airbrush history.” Look up history here.

7:28: Romney keeps bringing up the same old bullshit about how much worse things are now then they were when Obama came into office. Two words: “Bikini Graph

7:31: Mitt: “I want to see growing peace in this country.” Huh? This is the kind of thing that is said when politicians are on autopilot.

7:38: Promoted comment from Michael:

Moderate Mitt’s plans all seem to come down to being just like Obama, only white.

7:47: Debriefing: Michael nails it. Romney etch-a-sketched so far back to the center that he was, essentially, agreeing with Obama more than he was disagreeing. That ends up being a huge problem for him. After all, the power of incumbency is that given identical choices, the devil you know is better than the identical devil you don’t.

But, of course, the other problem is that by becoming The White Obama, he contradicts his past “non-Kenyan” self. You know, like most of the stuff he said in the G.O.P. primary. His strategy depends on potential moderate supporters not being disturbed by his total abdication of past positions. That may have worked 20 years ago, but in the age of The Twitter and a plethora of other social media…maybe not so much.

Comments

  1. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @1 Why is that relevant? Why isn’t Obama’s foreign policy experience now the relevant consideration?

  2. 3

    spews:

    Piltdown Man @ 1,

    Are you kidding? What with all his Kenyan and Indonesian Muslumey connections…he was obviously a expert in Jihad and terror!!!1!!

  3. 9

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Obama just did a GREAT job of refuting Romney’s b.s. about military sizing — would someone on Mitt’s debate coaching team please tell him what an aircraft carrier is?!

  4. 10

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Here it comes — Romney’s b.s. about an “apology tour” … let’s see how Obama slaps this down …

    WHAMMO!!! Uppercut to Mittster’s lying jaw!!!
    WHAMMO!!! A body blow to Mittster’s prevaricating ribs!!!

  5. 11

    Michael spews:

    when he gets down to “action” points, his plan is what the Obama administration is ACTUALLY DOING RIGHT NOW. Sheesh!

    Moderate Mitt’s plans all seem to come down to being just like Obama, only white.

  6. 12

    spews:

    % b hacols -f c -c body:phrase~’apology tour’,type:eq~t -o tag -V tag -u
    +————+
    | tag |
    +————+
    | klown |
    | lost |
    | mot |
    | puddymoron |
    +————+
    4 rows in set

  7. 14

    czechsaaz spews:

    OT, Don’t you know there’s a game seven on?

    But seriously, is it as much of an ass-kicking as the last commercial break would suggest? Did Willard just go all apology tour just to get bitch slapped in front if everyone who doesn’t drink the talk radio kool-aid?

    Giants 7-0 in the 5th and the President might be scattering a hit and a walk through 7 and a third. Both my teams are cruising.

  8. 16

    Michael spews:

    Is it over yet? I’ve been looking at bike companies ‘13 lineups and shopping for shoes.

  9. 17

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Romney thinks we can help Pakistan build a more stable society by slapping “benchmarks” (whatever those are) on our aid to Pakistan.

  10. 18

    MasabaBamasaba spews:

    I’m switching to Monday night football. Romney’s changes in his stance and downright lies at too nauseating.

  11. 19

    Michael spews:

    6:59: Mitt lets us know he has “a relationship with the Prime Minister of Israel.”

    Proving that there really isn’t anyone’s cock Romney wont suck.

  12. 20

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    The secret of Romney’s debate performances is that his team stole Obama’s crib notes.

  13. 22

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Moderate Mitt’s plans all seem to come down to being just like Obama, only white.

    BINGO!!

  14. 23

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @18 Yep, Romney finally realized he’s gotta be a Democrat to have any chance to win.

  15. 27

    Jerry spews:

    Romney just nailed it on dealing with China! China has continuously cheated costing us millions of jobs. There is a monstrous trade imbalance.
    Folks that pretend to care about the middle class ought to be cheering for what Romney just said.

    Obama appears less than Presidential.

  16. 28

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    $$$-Grubbing Colleges Exploit GI Bill Loophole

    “Some 250,000 student veterans are being forced to pay $10,000 for tuition each academic year because many colleges are misclassifying the residency status of those veterans — often for the schools’ own financial gain ….

    “The issue centers on a fundamental change to the GI Bill, enacted last year by Congress, which stripped tuition benefits for veterans who attend public schools and who are categorized as out-of-state students. …

    “Many of those same student veterans are lifelong residents of the states in which they’re now enrolled — even owning homes in those states — but their schools stamped them as out-of-state residents after they were temporarily transferred to other military bases, or deployed overseas.”

    http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_new.....-bill?lite

  17. 33

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @27 “Folks that pretend to care about the middle class ought to be cheering for what Romney just said.”

    Why? His party champions companies who ship U.S. jobs overseas and tax laws that reward them for it.

  18. 35

    spews:

    Heh. Willard says he loves teachers..

    He could teach Bob something!

    Funny how Willard is repeating so many of the same right wing bs tropes we’ve seen here for months from our trolls.

  19. 38

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    This election will come down whether the American electorate is dumb enough t be fooled by Romney’s manifest lies.

  20. 40

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @38 The biggest lies of all will be the things he promised to do in the debates, because throughout these debates Romney has consistently repudiated the Republican agenda.

  21. 43

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Carville: “‘This debate didn’t matter’ will be a Republican talking point because this debate was a rout.”

  22. 45

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Republican consultant Alex Castellanos on CNN: “I think Obama won on points tonight, but Romney passed the commander-in-chief test.”

    Another commentator disagrees and says “Romney collapsed tonight.”

  23. 47

    Dave spews:

    Romney won tonight. Too bad it was the Miss America title, but kudos for wanting world peace.

  24. 49

    Puddybud spews:

    Obummer beat Romney on slash and burn, but Obummer can’t run from his four years so far.

  25. 50

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Romney won tonight. Too bad it was the Miss America title, but kudos for wanting world peace.

    And loving teachers. Mitt loves him some teachers. He loves teachers.

    And agrees with Obama….on everything.

  26. 52

    Dave spews:

    Did anyone notice whether Romney mentioned anything about human rights, education, or employment for women in his foreign policy positions? I was kinda expecting to hear him say something about that, given how concerned he is about things women are concerned about… Did I just miss it?

  27. 53

    masaba spews:

    So the Marines don’t use bayonets anymore? Maybe ask the Marines who still use them.

    Ha ha ha ha ha. I was a grunt in the Army 3 years ago, we were also issued an e-tool; and we didn’t use that either.

  28. 55

    Puddybud spews:

    Fact checking Romney and his managed Detroit bankruptcy… Obummer gonna have some splaining to do! Romney DID say he would use Federal $$$ after the managed bankruptcy.

  29. 56

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @46 Explain to me how you get to me with a bayonet when I’m firing an assault rifle at you that puts out 12 rounds per second.

  30. 57

    czechsaaz spews:

    @46

    If after 90 minute Piddles thinks re-hashing bayonettes is clever, obviously…

    Willard lost HUGE. Up 3-1 in the series and now going home huge. Ball never in 49er territory in the second half huge. 8-0 in the 8th huge. Huskies at Arizona huge.

  31. 58

    Puddybud spews:

    Plouffe now says Sequestration should not happen… Oh noes… Obummer told us it WILL NOT happen…

    Another EPIC FAYLE!

  32. 59

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    “WASHINGTON (Nov. 19, 2009) — Retired Col. Lewis L. Millett, who received the Medal of Honor during the Korean War for leading what was reportedly the last major American bayonet charge, died Nov 14. …

    “Millet received the Medal of Honor for his actions Feb. 7, 1951. He led Company E, 27th Infantry, 25th Infantry Division, in a bayonet charge up Hill 180 near Soam-Ni, Korea.”

    http://www.army.mil/article/30.....arge_dies/

  33. 60

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @59 I sure hope not, but I’m holding back some cash in my investment portfolio in case Republicans are as obstinate in December 2012 as they were in August 2011 — when they nearly pushed the U.S. Treasury into default — because I’d love to pay August 2011 prices for the stocks I want to own.

  34. 61

    Puddybud spews:

    President Obummer skipped Israel when he went to the middle east, called US dismissive and derisive, dictated to other nations… Romney we have freed nations!

    So Obummer changes the topic and talked about candidate Obummer not President Obummer…

    Oh noes… no retort!

  35. 62

    masaba spews:

    Fact checking Romney and his managed Detroit bankruptcy… Obummer gonna have some splaining to do! Romney DID say he would use Federal $$$ after the managed bankruptcy.

    That’s just thing. Romney may very well have said that after he said that we should let Detroit go bankrupt. He’s taken every position on every issue depending on the audience. Take financing college, for instance. He has said that he would cut pell grants, that he would expand pell grants, and that if you want to go to college you should ask your parents to pay for it.

    Here’s another one: Romney has said that 47% of the American public are takers that don’t deserve his attention. About 6 months later, he told us that he cares for 100% of the American public. I’m not sure what any rational person can make of this, except that Romney was a lier at some point

    With Romney, the difficulty isn’t trying to figure out what he said, but figuring out when he wasn’t just pandering, which is a much more difficult task

  36. 65

    Puddybud spews:

    Hey SENILE Wabbit… Who stands up for the world’s worst actors? Russia… Russia sends weapons to Syria. Russia blocks us in the UN. Russia told everyone not to attack Iran. Yes Romney nails it again!

  37. 68

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @65 Funny you should say that, because Romney said something different tonight, and CNN’s fact-checkers set the record straight by playing a tape of a Romney interview to prove he did say that.

  38. 71

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    “As a matter of performance, this was as one-sided a win for Obama as the first debate was a one-sided embarrassment for him. Romney’s ill-at-easeness on nearly every subject that came up was palpable …. But it was more striking as a matter of substance that on virtually no issue did Romney make an actual criticism, of any sort, of Obama’s policy or record. … Obama did very well this evening, and Romney put up his worst showing.”

    — James Fallows, The Atlantic

    http://www.theatlantic.com/pol.....te/263972/

  39. 74

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    CNN on effect of sanctions: The exchange rate for the Iranian Rial against the U.S. Dollar has gone from 12,500 Rials for $1 to 35,000 Rials for $1 in the last year; and “meat is now twice as expensive” in Iran.

  40. 77

    Dave spews:

    @76. Roger Rabbit

    ‘Can’t really fault Romney for being an undecided voter. Like the majority of the rest of undecideds, he’ll probably resolve who he’s going to vote for when he’s staring at the ballot, ready to cast his vote…

  41. 79

    spews:

    Sam Feist

    @SamFeistCNN
    More of CNN post debate Poll: Can Obama handle job of Cmdr. in Chief? Yes: 63%. Can Romney? Yes: 60%. A draw on that Q.

    and

    DAVID GERGEN: Romney Passed The Commander-in-Chief Test.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....r_embedded

    I heard, more than watched the debate. Seemed to me Obama had the upper hand and I would agree with those who think he won.

    Here’s the problem with that:

    Romney didn’t need to win. He merely needed to continue to appear to be a competent alternative. Three debates come and gone, and Romney is still standing. He now simply needs to continue to drop the hammer on the economy and watch Obama flail away at the little stuff.

    It’s the economy. Nothing else matters.

  42. 80

    spews:

    @ 76

    RR, your link doesn’t match your text.

    However, since you brought up Ron Fournier, here’s what he DID have to say about the debate tonite:

    Obama Wins Third Debate but Romney Wins Debate Season

    Romney has cleared an important hurdle: A near-decisive number of Americans believe that he is a viable alternative to Obama, an incumbent saddled with a weak economy and a pessimistic national mood.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com.....n-20121022

    So, RR, you can add Fournier to the ranks of those @ 79 who believe that Romney came off appearing competent and presidential in an environment in which Obama’s competence is questioned after four lousy years.

    I’m sure that’s the point you were trying to make.

  43. 81

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @79 I think Obama’s greatest weakness is that he hasn’t laid out his agenda for the next 4 years. But Romney is even weaker on that.

  44. 82

    Meme1 spews:

    @79,

    You may as well replace “it’s the economy” with “it’s anything that may have a tiny chance of swaying people into voting for Mitt”.

    Romney may or may not need to have won this debate; we’ll find out soon.

    Yet your argument keeps supposing Mitt is ahead: the problem is he’s behind.

    As the analysis on this site, and pretty much every reputable forecaster has pointed out, Mitt is not ahead in the electoral college, nor has he been at any time in the course of this election.

    From that standpoint, he needs to pull ahead, and “It’s the economy. Nothing else matters.” rant is simply absurd. Mitt got a bigger bounce from winning the first debate than he has over any economic report during the entire election.

    My advice, stick to pretending that Mitt won the debate.

  45. 86

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    CNN’s commentators are discussing whether conservatives are feeling uncomfortable with Romney’s move to the liberal-center spectrum. That could be a wild card in the election. Romney’s had to move so far away from the right to be a credible candidate that some Republicans might get discouraged and stay home, or maybe vote for a third-party candidate.

  46. 88

    spews:

    @ 86

    CNN’s commentators are discussing whether conservatives are feeling uncomfortable with Romney’s move to the liberal-center spectrum.

    You’ll find out in little more than two weeks.

    Conservatives will back anyone with a prayer of beating Obama, same as Dems backed an idiot like Kerry in hopes of beating Bush.

  47. 89

    Meme1 spews:

    @84,

    I meant just pretend he won the debate, don’t claim something else will sink Obama in the coming weeks.

    People have heard Romney rant and rave about the economy with every jobs report, good or bad; yet the polls have yet to show Obama losing the electoral college according to any sane analysis.

    So, if you’re going to go with self-delusion, go with something else.

  48. 91

    Tea for everyone spews:

    It’s the F’n Debt “DEBT” Stupid. All this other crap is a sideshow. You cannot keep running up 1.3 trillion dollar deficits or you will surpass Greece.

    And we all know how that country is getting along now don’t we!

  49. 92

    spews:

    For his win, Obama gets a big, fat, nothingburger:

    Sam Feist

    @SamFeistCNN
    CNN poll of debate watchers: Who did debate make you more likely to vote for? Obama 24%, Romney 25%, Neither 50%. #CNNDebate

  50. 95

    Meme1 spews:

    @92,

    So, Obama was beating Mitt before the debate and he’s still beating Mitt now.

    But, that’s good news for Mitt in your mind?

    Oh, right, the economy everyone has heard about day in and day out all year is magically going to sway everyone at the last second because… well… because that’s realistically all you have left unless something pretty major happens in the coming weeks.

  51. 97

    Richard Pope spews:

    I liked the greater level of civility tonight from both candidates. I thought that Obama had a slight edge, as far as scoring the debate. But Romney presented himself credibly, and didn’t make any major mistakes. Romney didn’t seem like a person that most folks would hate or fear, at least on foreign policy, even though Obama seemed a bit more capable of handling foreign policy.

    Probably quite wise for Romney to talk as much as possible about the economy, since that is what most voters are concerned about, and obviously where Obama is most vulnerable. The one area where most voters give Romney a clear advantage over Obama. And if most voters don’t hate or fear Romney too much, he might just end up winning.

  52. 98

    Czechsaaz spews:

    @75

    And there you have it. Our long standing troll hoping, desperately, that tonight’s ass kicking won’t move the polls. The polls that show Willard losing the electoral college. “If Willard can just do as well on election day as he’s polling now, then, oh crap, he loses. Polls are biased. Y’arrrgh.”

  53. 99

    spews:

    @ 94

    “because that’s realistically all you have left unless something pretty major happens in the coming weeks.”

    Well, yes. At least a continuation of what has been happening since October 3rd.

    People who had not heretofore had an opportunity to see Romney now have, and have found him to be, um, presidential.

    Meanwhile, the efforts Team Obama have made to brand Romney public enemy No. 1 in the War on Women have failed. Turns out women vote the economy more than any other issue.

    It’s why Obama’s once-masterful lead over Romney with women voters has been more than halved. Men are more turned off by Obama playing to the XX crowd than women are turned on, so he’s falling further behind in the gender gap.

    Meanwhile, the youth vote isn’t materializing, the Latino vote is a big question mark, and seniors are breaking to Romney.

    So are undecideds.

    All those 47-47 ties? That means another 6% undecideds. Obama won’t win them.

    Ohio is a tie right now. It wasn’t two weeks ago. Romney flips Ohio, Romney wins.

    Tell me how, with 15 days still to go, that isn’t possible.

    You are assuming what Obama has had will last.

    It won’t.

  54. 101

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @99 The debates didn’t blow open the race. If Romney is to win, he has to do it the hard way, scraping for every last persuadable vote. It’s nothing like you portray @99. For your scenario to play out, an awful lot of Democratic voters would have to decide not to vote … or be prevented from voting by GOP suppression efforts.

  55. 102

    Meme1 spews:

    “Ohio is a tie right now.”

    You can keep repeating that, and pointing to cherry picked polls; but that still doesn’t make it true.

    Obama is ahead in Ohio, always has been.

    You can stick your head in the sand all you like; but Ohio is not now, nor has it ever been a tie. I believe Darryl has pointed this out to you in the past.

    “You are assuming what Obama has had will last.”

    I assume no such thing. It might get better for Obama after tonight, and it might not.

    You are pretending Obama is either tied or behind, depending on the moment. He isn’t.

    You further insist that things will get better for Mitt after any given event, yet the evidence does not support this now, nor has it in the past.

    “Ohio is a tie right now. It wasn’t two weeks ago. Romney flips Ohio, Romney wins. Tell me how, with 15 days still to go, that isn’t possible.”

    Nice attempt to put words in my mouth, but I said no such thing; in fact you contradict yourself, you can’t even decide if Ohio is tied or if Romney needs to flip Ohio in the next 15 days (implying Obama would win today).

    I am saying, right now Obama is ahead and would likely win if nothing changes in the next 15 days; the question is wether Mitt can do anything that will guarantee such a change.

    And as of tonight, this debate does not seem to have accomplished this goal.

  56. 103

    spews:

    Person playing Puddybud,

    So the Marines don’t use bayonets anymore? Maybe ask the Marines who still use them.

    I’m sitting across from a Veteran (Op: Iraqi Freedom through 2006).

    “Every Marine receives bayonet training, but they don’t use them in real world combat. Hand-to-hand combat is almost non-existant in today’s wartime theatre.”

  57. 104

    Real American spews:

    75. Puddybud spews:
    Will the debate influence the polling numbers? Probably not.

    That is as close to an admittion of defeat BuddyPud will ever share.

    I almost feel sorry for PuddyBud and Romney, except for that I don’t.

  58. 105

    spews:

    @ 102

    I believe Darryl has pointed this out to you in the past.

    Well, yes, Darryl has been rather emphatic in the past about Romney’s poor chances, most notably:

    But it looks like Romney has an almost insurmountable task ahead of him if he is to leave the rolls of the unemployed.

    posted on 10/1.

    That was the past. Things are clearly very different now and Darryl very likely would not refer to Romney’s prospects as ‘almost insurmountable’ anymore.

    I am optimistic that Romney will win because I believe the trend that began post-debate #1 will continue. You apparently do not agree, which is fine. I don’t spend much time commenting on blogs filled with right-wingers. That’s no fun.

  59. 109

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    I don’t spend much time commenting on blogs filled with right-wingers. That’s no fun.

    Interesting. I used to go over to Stefan’s sucky little blog, AKA SoundPolitics. I tried arguing and essentially doing there what you do here, except with the truth.

    I got banned. To this day, if I leave a comment pudge comes along and deletes it. It’s very funny – messes up their numbering system, when posts are ‘disappeared’.

    Very right wing over there, WRT censorship. Count your blessings, Robert.

  60. 110

    spews:

    @ 107

    Bob @ 99,

    “Ohio is a tie right now.”

    That’s very funny!

    In denial much?

    Just wondering if there’s gonna be a D+8 turnout in OH again. ’cause that was the distribution in the Fox poll over the weekend, that gave Obama +3. And Indies breaking for Romney by 24 points.

    There’s the Q poll, which has Obama up 5, but also says that 1 in 5 of their respondents claim to have voted, but only 11% is listed at the state office, so either someone’s working off some old data, or someone’s not polling evenly across the state.

    Yeah, I think it’s as close to a tie there as it gets if one figures turnout ratios to be midway between 2008 and 2012.

    Still waiting for you to mention your preferred charity, Darryl. Apologies if you did and I missed it. Pretty sure MBS said he wanted to know as well.

  61. 111

    Meme1 spews:

    @105,

    “Well, yes, Darryl has been rather emphatic in the past about Romney’s poor chances”

    Nice deflection. I pointed out your tendency to cherry pick polls that fit your desired outcome; something Darryl (and probably others) have pointed out.

    Good duck and weave though.

    “I am optimistic that Romney will win because I believe the trend that began post-debate #1 will continue. You apparently do not agree, which is fine.”

    No, I think the post-debate #1 gave Romney a significant bounce, yet pretty much every reputable pollster still had him losing.

    Romney has since lost ground.

    Meaning he was behind by a lot, significantly narrowed his odds, then began to decline again.

    As for what will happen on election day; I’m not sure. Romney has had success in the past reversing the polls in the last week or so before elections (see quite a few of the primaries).

    But he did so mostly by getting Republican leaders to denounce his opponents and outspending them several times over; which won’t be the case this time.

    As to who will win, I’m undecided. But I felt the same way a month ago.

    It will be over when it’s over.

  62. 112

    spews:

    Bob,

    “That was the past. Things are clearly very different now and Darryl very likely would not refer to Romney’s prospects as ‘almost insurmountable’ anymore.”

    Romney has made some progress since the first debate, but as the time series has consistently shown, Romney has not been able to get past a 25% probability of winning. It is always risky to predict two weeks ahead, I’d say Romney’s prospects are “nearly insrumountable”.

    Really…without an October surprise, the data simply don’t support the idea of him winning.

  63. 113

    spews:

    @ 109

    That was a hoppin’ blog in 2005. Haven’t read it in maybe 4 years. I think there was a big dropoff after 2008.

    I go over about once a month, read the titles of the threads, get bored after the third, and leave.

    Should I be banned from here, Lib Sci? Serial propagandization or some such offense?

  64. 115

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Serial propagandization or some such offense?

    Isn’t that what Willard wanted to ‘indict’ Ahmadinejad for?

    That was the first (of many) eye-rollers at the debate. If anyone though Willard looked presidential simply because he was sitting across from Obama and spent the night agreeing with him is deluded.

  65. 117

    spews:

    “Still waiting for you to mention your preferred charity, Darryl. Apologies if you did and I missed it. Pretty sure MBS said he wanted to know as well.”

    You didn’t miss it. I just had a very busy weekend and busy day today. Very soon….

  66. 118

    Richard Pope spews:

    Liberal Scientist @ 109

    You’re right. Pudge is a total asshole. He calls anyone who disagrees with him a “liar”, and then bans them. I am banned on all of Pudge’s threads too, and my stuff gets deleted. Maybe some of the other folks there won’t delete your comments from their posts. In any event, great way to make your point of view popular — virulently over-attack anyone who disagrees with you.

  67. 119

    Richard Pope spews:

    Darryl @ 112

    You are a great scientist, and your statistical methods are done consistently and in a very reasonable manner.

    But I didn’t see any professional qualifications as a psychic on your C.V. The winner in two weeks is anyone’s guess, especially with fluctuations in opinion polls, and how some voters often change their minds. Only a slight percentage change can make one candidate or the other win a comfortable EV margin.

    “Nearly insurmountable” is a ridiculous position under the circumstances. “Hella close” is much more accurate, with the EV’s breaking slightly towards Obama based on individual state polls.

  68. 121

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @120 That’s like saying all Republicans are serial killers because Ted Bundy was a serial killer. (See? I can play this game, too.) But don’t let me stop you from being sick. However, please ask your friendly flight attendant for a barf bag, so you don’t soil the carpet the rest of us have to walk on.

  69. 122

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @118 For some unfathomable reason, pudge didn’t ban me, even when I taunted him. Perhaps he’s saving me for dessert.

  70. 123

    spews:

    Richard,

    “But I didn’t see any professional qualifications as a psychic on your C.V. The winner in two weeks is anyone’s guess, especially with fluctuations in opinion polls, and how some voters often change their minds. Only a slight percentage change can make one candidate or the other win a comfortable EV margin.

    “Nearly insurmountable” is a ridiculous position under the circumstances. “Hella close” is much more accurate, with the EV’s breaking slightly towards Obama based on individual state polls.”

    I understand your point, but I did add the disclaimer “It is always risky to predict two weeks ahead…”

    With my quasi-psychic hat on, I can employ many more sources of information than just “current polls.” Beginning from the analysis that shows Obama with a 80% to 90% probability of winning this week, I add to that that Romney has not held the lead over the past year, and is, apparently, stuck now.

    After the first debate, Obama was hemorrhaging EVs. That has been stopped. Romney has only managed to re-gain what he had after the RNC or what he held a year ago.

    So given the advantage of incumbency, and the fact that this debate isn’t going to renew a surge for Romney, I see a Romney win as “Nearly insurmountable.”

    But, you know, there is the Donald Trump thing coming on Wednesday…. That could change everything!

  71. 124

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @111 re @105 et al. — For the life of me, I can’t figure out what Bob is crowing about, now that we have two Democrats and no Republicans running for president (see, e.g., #115). Seems to me
    Bob loses either way.

  72. 125

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @106 Without a doubt, “horses and bayonets” will go down in history as the most memorable line of the 2012 campaign.

  73. 126

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Roger Rabbit Pop Quiz

    In what year did the last U.S. cavalry charge occur?

    (no cheating now)

  74. 127

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Ah, what the hell, I want to go to bed, so I’ll give the answer now:

    “On 9 November 2001, Northern Alliance forces, under the command of generals Abdul Rashid Dostum and Ustad Atta Mohammed Noor, swept across the Pul-i-Imam Bukhri bridge, meeting some resistance, and seized the city’s main military base and airport. U.S. Special Operations Forces (namely Special Forces Operational Detachment A-595, CIA paramilitary officers and Air Force Combat Control Teams) on horseback and using Close Air Support platforms, took part in the push into the city of Mazari Sharif in Balkh Province by the Northern Alliance.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W.....ial_attack

  75. 128

    Richard Pope spews:

    Darryl @ 123

    Check my e-mail to you. I took your state polls, and estimated 2012 popular vote totals, based on how many people voted (Obama + McCain) in 2008 in each state, and then multiplying by your weighted average polling numbers in each state. For Alaska, Delaware and Wyoming, with no 2012 polls, I simply used the 2008 vote totals to predict 2012 vote.

    Bottom line — Obama wins the two-candidate popular vote over Romney by 51.32% to 48.68%. I would agree that a 2.64% lead in national popular vote is “nearly insurmountable”. Obama defeats Romney by 290 to 248 in states where each candidate leads, or by 292 to 246 when you run 100,000 simulated elections on the statistical analysis.

    HOWEVER — Romney is ahead in RealClearPolitics.Com national polling average by 47.6% to 47.2%, using unweighted average of nine current polls. If you weight these national polls by sample size, as you do with state polls, and take the two candidate vote, Romney beats Obama nationwide by 50.76% to 49.24% — a spread of 1.52% for Romney.

    So you have the paradox of Romney getting 2.08% less of the nationwide popular vote when you add up the state results, based on the polls done in each state, compared with weighted average of national polls.

    I would say that it would be extremely unlikely for Romney to win the nationwide popular vote by 1.52%, and still lose the electoral college. Gore won the national popular vote by 0.49% in 2000, and lost the electoral college to Bush by the narrowest of margins. An increase of 0.02% in the popular vote spread in every state (including Florida) would have won the electoral college for Gore in 2000.

  76. 131

    spews:

    Heh:


    the Obama ads especially irk GOP voters. As a result, the Romney and Obama ads have supercharged the enthusiasm of 2008 McCain voters, a huge boost for Romney.

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/.....IaS947R30c

    I know that every time I see an Obama ad I’m reminded to vote for Romney.

    Although now that Obama’s unveiling @ 130 his plan for the next four years, maybe it all will be different.

    I mean, why else would Obama do it? He’s realizing that four more years of the same is a losing argument.

  77. 132

    Jerry spews:

    One last insane desperate rant by Chris Matthews. Back to “if you disagree with Barrack Obama’s policies and lack of leadership, you must be a racist!? Here is Matthews at his most insane-

    “I think they hate Obama. They want him out of the White House more than they want to destroy Al Qaeda. Their No. 1 enemy in the world right now, on the right, is their hatred, hatred for Obama. And we can go into that about the white working class in the South and looking at these numbers we’re getting the last couple days about racial hatred in many cases … this isn’t about being a better president, they want to get rid of this president,’ he said.”

    You bet I want Obama out of the White House. And I could care less about Matthews insane, racist prism. It’s about policies and Obama’s dismal record on the economy and foreign policy Chris you racist pig!
    BTW, what is Obama’s plan?
    Seemed like Romney was the incumbent once again last night.
    Obama is in love with BEING President, running for President and making speeches that have no reflection on reality. Last night, you would have thought the economy was booming and the world was tranquil listening to the King of Bullshit.

  78. 133

    Jerry spews:

    61. Puddybud spews:

    President Obummer skipped Israel when he went to the middle east, called US dismissive and derisive, dictated to other nations… Romney we have freed nations!

    So Obummer changes the topic and talked about candidate Obummer not President Obummer…

    Precisely. Obama was desperately avoiding his own real record with platitudes and acting like he wasn’t in charge the past 4 years. Obama is borderline nuts.

  79. 134

    Jerry spews:

    The Republicans have a tremendous ground game going in all the swing states. McCain had very little. Republicans learned that it’s going door-to-door and making the calls that swings votes..not endless TV and radio ads. The vastly improved ground game, plus Obama’s weak policies, particularly ObamaCare, will cause Obama to move from +7% in 2008 to -3% in 2012. Will Obama pull out the election despite losing the popular vote?? Maybe. Hey, I thought you lefty’s wanted the National Popular Vote to decide the election??

  80. 136

    Steve spews:

    “Chris you racist pig”

    You’re such a pathetic loser. Got anymore racist jokes about blacks you’d care to share, Klown? I have to say, that last one you told us wasn’t very funny. Your racist friend Bob might have gotten a laugh out of it though.

  81. 137

    spews:

    After nearly a year and a half of campaigning, NOW Obama tells us what he plans for his second term.

    I guess Obama figured that after three debates, demonization of Romney wasn’t a winning election strategy.

    Meanwhile, in an equally sharp turnabout, Romney plans to make the election about the economy.

    Go figure.

  82. 138

    spews:

    You know, Doctor Steve, you and your ilk are the ones making this about race.

    Michael makes a race-based comment and Darryl sees fit to promote it to the thread text.

    The rest of us are hammering him for the economy.

    When Bill Clinton taped up that sign on his mirror, which read, “It’s the economy, stupid.”, was that racist?

    No?

    Then why now?

    I’ll answer that for you, Doctor Steve. It’s what you’re left with.

  83. 139

    Steve spews:

    You can just STFU, Bob. The Klown is a racist and so are you. The Klown tells racist jokes, you share your vision of white militias roaming the streets of Detroit shooting blacks.

    I’d ask you to grow a spine and stand up to me like a man but you’ve proven yourself to be nothing but a fat, gout-ridden, greed-obsessed asswipe. Oh, and a dumbfuck racist.

  84. 140

    spews:

    @ 139

    I’m not fat.

    What a reasoned, rational argument you make, Doctor Steve.

    You feel it, don’t you. You see the wave off on the horizon and you know what it means.

    It’s understandable, Doctor Steve.

    You’re getting ready for The Pain.

  85. 141

    Steve spews:

    I’ve seen through your bullshit from the day you showed up. You really ought to try being proud of being a racist, Bob. At least you wouldn’t be such a fucking hypocrite. But like the Klown, you drop your racist turds in these threads and then taunt others as being the real racists. You can take your tired bullshit and go fuck yourself with it.

  86. 142

    Steve spews:

    “You’re getting ready for The Pain.”

    I suppose “The Pain” will be delivered by a stupid, fat fuck such as yourself? That’ll be the day, Goutman.

  87. 145

    czechsaaz spews:

    So watched the whole thing int the interwebs this morning (The Giants win the pennant! The Giants….)

    This was one of my favorites:

    Willard : “(Syria) is Iran’s only ally in the region. It’s their route to the sea.”

    Tell you what, go take a look at a map, point to Syria’s boarder with Iran. Now tell me if Iran can get to the Arabian Sea without going through Syria. I’ll wait here.

    (Willard, Iran is the #1 problem, when it’s not the Soviets. So important is Iran that I, Mitt, don’t know a thing about Iran’s geography.)

  88. 146

    spews:

    Doctor Steve, it would be a lot of fun messing with your mind today, but duty calls.

    I’ll leave you with this little pearl:

    D.C. caught off guard by Obama sequester vow
    By: Philip Ewing
    October 23, 2012 12:32 AM EDT

    President Barack Obama startled Washington during Monday night’s foreign policy debate when he said billions in automatic Pentagon cuts “will not happen” — a line that could weaken his bargaining power during an epic spending and tax fight expected when Congress returns.

    http://dyn.politico.com/prints.....D6C9749D7F

    Not only will Obama lose, he’s just kneecapped his party in the upcoming budget negotiations.

    Have fun with that, liberals. He’s the head of the Democrat Party.

  89. 148

    Steve spews:

    “I’m just a mild-mannered conservative, Doctor Steve.”

    I say that you’re a gout-ridden, racist piece of shit, Bob, and a damned coward.

  90. 149

    Steve spews:

    “Doctor Steve, it would be a lot of fun messing with your mind”

    Like that will ever fucking happen.

  91. 150

    spews:

    No idea what Gloria Allred has in store for Romney tomorrow. OK, I do, but only what I have read.

    Here’s something that Team Romney won’t be pushing:


    A man claiming to be a close pal to President Obama during college made contact with Republican operatives recently, ready to go public with claims that Obama used and sold cocaine in college, RadarOnline.com is reporting exclusively.

    The operatives tried to spread the story through the media and the Romney campaign, a source close to the situation told Radar.

    http://www.radaronline.com/exc.....ans-reject

    Ah, but that’s an old allegation. And it’s already been tried. By Team Clinton:

    Shaheen said Obama’s candor on the subject would “open the door” to further questions. “It’ll be, ‘When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?'” Shaheen said.

    http://blog.washingtonpost.com.....t-235.html

  92. 152

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    “I’m just a mild-mannered conservative, Doctor Steve.”

    I say that you’re a gout-ridden, racist piece of shit, Bob, and a damned coward.

    No, just a pasty-white sub-suburban radiologist who LOVES his money and really doesn’t like the black guy very much.

  93. 154

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Pinocchio? Where’d that come from, Cap’n Crunch?

  94. 155

    rhp6033 spews:

    Back to the bayonettes:

    Leave it to Puddy to try to divert the discussion into an argument over the most trivial detail: bayonnets. The President could have named just about any other outdated weapons system, he happened to choose that one.

    And as others have stated, bayonnete training remains a staple in Army and Marine training programs. But as was also noted, there hasn’t been a documented instance of a bayonnet charge since the Korean War.

    Even during the American Civil War, at the height of the era of the bayonnet, the number of casualties caused by bayonnet wounds was a fraction of those from other causes (bullets, shrapnel, solid shot from cannon, etc.). Soldiers on both sides soon learned to rush to within firing range, then exchange rifle fire until one side or another gave way. The charge of the 20th Maine on Little Round Top at Gettysburg was born of desperation, and may well have been the last successful bayonnet charge of that war.

    There was something of a resurgence of the bayonnet in WWII, as troops which managed to live long enough to enter the enemy trenches engaged in hand-to-hand fighting. But the “trench gun” and hand-held automatic weapons introduced at the conclusion of that war made bayonnets unlikely to be of much use in WWII.

    In WWII, the operative doctrine of the Americans has been the same as it has been ever since: keep the enemy at a safe distance where they can be pounded by artillary and machine gun fire. But the Japanese in WWII had an almost religious attachment to the bayonnet, as a symbol of ancient Samurai swords born for the Emperor. But it’s attempts at bayonnet charges against American machine guns, mortor, and artillary met devestating results. The same held true of the Chinese in Korea, until they changed tactics.

    By Vietnam, the bayonnet was used pretty much as a knife – in rare occassions used like a knife in close-quarter combat, but most often used as a can-opener when the little device most soldiers and Marines fastened to their dog-tag chain was missing.

    The bayonnet was at it’s highest use when soldiers packed into close ranks approached an enemy line with bayonnets leveled. The idea wasn’t that the bayonnets were to be used, but that the line of gleeming sharp points would instill fear into the enemy and send him fleeing. In this, it was similar to the pike. But once you no longer had the closed-ranks infantry (due to the effects of artillary and machine guns), the bayonnet lost this phsychological edge.

    In today’s military, if a soldier has to rely upon a bayonnet, then there have been many, many levels of other things which went wrong first.

  95. 158

    spews:

    @ 155

    All of that is beside the point.

    Look at what you’re wasting your time arguing.

    Romney will hammer the economy home in the final two weeks. During that period, where has Team Obama been?

    Big Bird. Binders. Now bayonets are what Dems are spending time on, defending what their guy said at the debate.

    It was a tiny, tiny point.

    Meanwhile, look at what’s happened to the stock market since Friday. We’re in the middle of earnings season, and they’re significantly down. Look at Dupont’s announcement today, Caterpillar’s announcement yesterday, all the other downward revisions. Look at the downward spike in the unemployment rate that happened in September, due to some numerical fluctuations. Will all this economic downward stuff, you think the unemployment rate is going to fall further on November 2nd?

    The economy is sinking, Romney’s driving home that point to the voters, and you just posted a long screed about bayonets.

    You’ve lost control of the message. The message is the economy. It’s the number one issue amongst women voters. You guys trotted out Sandra Fluke and thought it would make a difference.

    Stupidity should be painful. Get ready for it.

  96. 159

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Obama idiocy

    You mean resisting Romney idiocy about 1916 gunboats or a 600-ship navy, or whatever else he was blathering about.

    Romney is a lot like you, Robert – down deep, he really doesn’t care about anything but money, and will say anything to anyone that he thinks will advance that cause.

  97. 160

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Stupidity should be painful.

    No, stupidity should be remedied.

    Greed should be painful.

  98. 161

    spews:

    Hey, HA libbies!

    Didja hear? Obama’s got a new plan!!!!!!!

    Except there’s nothing new in it.

    There are no new proposals in the plan Obama is touting; it is a repackaging of proposals he has been offering on the campaign trail for months, such as plans to use half the savings from winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for domestic infrastructure investment; create incentives for companies to bring jobs back to the United States (and end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas); continue investing in “clean” energy and recruit 100,000 new math and science teachers.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....term-plan/

    No new ideas, just more of the same spending, inadequately countered by weak-ass efforts to raise taxes on someone other than yourselves.

    When the WaPo dismisses Obama’s Hail Mary, it should be clear that your side is fucked, and that you’ve basically fucked yourselves.

  99. 162

    czechsaaz spews:

    @156

    its cute the things you cling to to assuage your anxiety. Quoting the Washington examiner. Google Phillip Anchultz or look at their circulation numbers ever?

    Nah, no tech sector in Virginia. The huge gap in donations by military personnel to Obama over Romney is documented. There aren’t a bunch of public sector workers who stand a reasonable chance of being unemployed by a Romnyan administration. “We have these things called air raft carriers” and people who run them are laughing at you Willard.

  100. 164

    spews:

    @ 162

    Um, they’re called aircraft carriers. Rafts are the little things inside the ships.

    If the military vote really was going Obama’s way he’d be doing more to make sure all of the military votes were received in time to be counted. More likely, the military vote will be 2-to-1 in Romney’s favor, but you keep believing what you need to believe to prevent your crest from falling.

  101. 165

    spews:

    Is the Obama-dealt-cocaine allegation Trump’s bombshell?

    The title of the piece @ 150 is

    Trumped-Up Charges? Republicans Rejected Man’s Claims That Obama Sold Cocaine In College

    This is below Romney’s level but for Trump it would actually be a step up.

    Your move, Ms. Allred.

  102. 166

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    This is below Romney’s level

    There’s little below Romney’s level, and Romney has been in bed with The Donald for some time.

    Romney will do anything, say anything, compromise anything to get what he wants. He is amoral and without scruple – and that often works. Why don’t you dispense with the pretense and just embrace the sociopathy? He’s your kind of guy.

  103. 168

    czechsaaz spews:

    @164

    You can assume it was a typo or you can infer that I was riffing in Willard not knowing the difference between a raft, a zodiac, a fleet of PT boats and a nuclear submarine. (Apparently you agree with Willard that having 15 USS Nautili is superior to 5 Virginia Class.)

    Your choice.

  104. 173

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @171
    You embarrass yourself, if that’s possible.

    You know as well as I, doctor, that ‘stage three’ can be things besides cancer – and that this is more right-wing hysteria. Not unlike the ‘attacks on Trigggggg!!’ or that ‘lipstick on a pig’ was tantamount to calling Palin a pig (no matter how accurate that might be) – it’s all right-wing faux victimhood.

    You do know no one takes you seriously, right?

  105. 175

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Interesting – a dissection of how the Romney campaign is trying to create the appearance of momentum.

    ‘Appearance’ being the critical word.

    I guess when momentum is swinging against you, this is the next best thing.

    I especially liked the marching band analogy. Willard thinks we all live in River City.

    But the decision to have a staffer move out of state, with a marching band and sound trucks in tow to spread the news far and wide, signals a deliberate strategy to create a narrative.

  106. 177

    spews:

    @ 175

    TPM, the source of your link, has an electoral map showing Obama with 233 and Romney with 195.

    RCP’s map has Romney with 206 and Obama with 201.

    If one begins a story from a premise that Obama is up by 38 EVs, then yes, Romney has no momentum, you are correct.

  107. 178

    Steve spews:

    “I’m only here to fuck with your mind”

    Unwarranted smugness and smarm delivered with dumbfuck snide doesn’t fuck with anybody’s mind unless they’re as stupid as Bob. Apparently he’s incapable of posting a comment that doesn’t further reveal himself to be a narcissistic basketcase.

  108. 179

    spews:

    @ 178

    Apparently he’s incapable of posting a comment that doesn’t further reveal himself to be a narcissistic basketcase.

    Yeah, @ 177 was just dripping with that, wasn’t it?

  109. 180

    Steve spews:

    “I have another world for that.”

    The way you carry on here like a narcissistic loon, it’s damned obvious that you receive very few strokes in that other world of yours. Little wonder why.

  110. 181

    Steve spews:

    “Yeah, @ 177 was just dripping with that, wasn’t it?”

    Your every posts drips with it, fucktard.

  111. 182

    spews:

    Michael Mann has filed suit against National Review and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

    I look forward to the discovery process. Should be fun, since he and UVA have done everything they can to avoid releasing documents so far.

  112. 183

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @177

    *eye roll*

    RCP has Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada as ‘toss ups’ and unallocated. RCP is parroting an untethered right wing narrative.

    Nate Silver, and our own Darryl would beg to differ, I believe.

    Tell yourself what you like…and fantasize about ‘the Pain’ all you like.

    (Will ‘the Pain’ be like the much vaunted ‘zingers’ and the yet-to-materialize ‘carpet bombing’?)

  113. 185

    spews:

    @ 183

    Nate Silver, and our own Darryl would beg to differ, I believe.

    I’m sure they would. Darryl’s technique permits no tossups. Silver’s technique enables him to do poll-weighting and a couple of other things as he sees fit.

    Very subjectively, I look at the trend, assume some unrepresentative poll weighting has occurred in what’s been published (like Fox’s D+9 Ohio poll, and another poll who included 20% respondents who already voted when only 11% have already voted in OH statewide), add a dash of optimism, and an assumption that any economic data between now and the election will be bad news for Obama.

    Which permits me to place Ohio in Romney’s column.

    Romney has some narrow and admittedly unlikely paths to victory without Ohio.

    Obama does not.

  114. 186

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @184

    Romney has some narrow and admittedly unlikely paths to victory without Ohio.

    Obama does not.

    Um..that would be more bullshit, suggesting that either you’re stupid or lying.

    Romney can win Ohio, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, and not have enough.
    In that scenario he still needs one of NH, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa or Nevada.

    If Obama takes Ohio, which is likely, then he can lose NH, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa and Colorado, and still win.

    The numbers are highly stacked against Willard.

  115. 187

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    And on top of it, Willard is just a shell of a human being, a money oriented vacuum device that spews platitudes to the rubes while picking their pockets.

    Dr. Robert fancies himself not a rube.

  116. 188

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    (like Fox’s D+9 Ohio poll, and another poll who included 20% respondents who already voted when only 11% have already voted in OH statewide)

    This is more bullshit. More ‘unskewing’ the polls, complaining about how people self-identify, a very fluid designation and not something that anyone but Rasmussen and that dude in a Virginia basement ‘fix’.

    Moreover, 11% of what? Registered voters? Not a valid comparison. ‘Likely voters’ – they’re not that be definition. You’re trying to compare two incomparable numbers and making it sound like you have a point.

    You’re tossing around ‘truthy’ right wing memes again, making yourself look like a putz.

  117. 189

    Steve spews:

    “and fantasize about ‘the Pain’ all you like”

    It’s pretty obvious that only one fearing “The Pain” around here is our resident nitwit, Bob.

  118. 190

    spews:

    @ 186

    Romney can win Ohio, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, and not have enough.
    In that scenario he still needs one of NH, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa or Nevada.

    That’s only correct if you give CO back to Obama. RCP has CO in Romney’s column if there are no toss-up states. He’s taken 3 of the last 5 polls. Darryl has it 3-3 but in two more days the Gravis poll drops off.

    CO in Obama’s column is unlikely to last more than two more days, Lib Pinocchio.

  119. 191

    spews:

    @ 188

    Fair enough. Continue to think what you think and I’ll continue to think what I think. There will be plenty of time for more comment over the next two weeks.

    Obama needs a turnout model in OH essentially better than he had in 2008 to prevail. You must think he’ll get it. I don’t.

  120. 194

    spews:

    If things are so rosy for Obama in Ohio, why is his campaign talking about losing the state?

    The vice president is midway through a three-day tour of uber-battleground Ohio, and Obama’s team contends it’s best way of ensuring victory is a win there. The campaign says internal polling gives Obama a lead in the Midwestern battleground state, in large part because of the popularity of the president’s bailout of the auto industry.

    But even if Obama loses Ohio, his campaign sees another pathway to the presidency by nailing New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/.....knox-beran

  121. 195

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    why is his campaign talking about losing the state?

    Um, because they’re not, nitwit.

    What you wrote and what you quoted say two different things.

    I hope you read CTs better than you read English.

  122. 198

    spews:

    How badly are things looking for Obama? (@ 196 poll)

    His lead among younger voters, 51-40, is only three points greater than Romney’s lead among independents.

    Obama’s losing every other age group. And the age group he’s winning won’t turn out to support him.

  123. 199

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    I highly approve of Romney’s decision to be kind and gentle to the retard.
    — @AnnCoulter via web

    But, but….but what about Trigg?! This is an affront to TRIGGG!!1!!!

  124. 202

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @201 “Donald Trump is to claim that he has unearthed divorce papers of Michelle Obama and the President, according to a respected financial pundit with links to the tycoon. … [Trump] will claim that the documents show the First Lady and the President were at one point in their two decades of marriage seriously considering splitting up.”

    This is news? Is there a married couple anywhere who haven’t considered splitting up? Now, if Trump asserted the Obamas have never thought about getting divorced, that would be news — but probably no one would believe him.

  125. 203

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @201
    That’s it? That’s the sleaziest thing I’ve heard in a while.
    And who cares, if true?

    So, so what if they were going to split up? Are they evil because of it? Is Obama unfit to be pres because of it. No and no.

    Is it even germane? No. Unlikely to even hurt him. In fact, they’re a paragon of good parenting for getting it together for the kids.

    I can’t believe you’ve even posted it here.

    You really are an asshole, Robert.

  126. 206

    spews:

    @ 203

    Is it even germane?

    Depends on what’s in the papers. When a woman files for divorce from her husband, does she include flattering remarks about him in the filing?

    No?

    Then if it’s allegations from Michelle about Barack, then yeah, Lib Pinocchio, in an election year, it’s germane.

    It’s as germane as the Romney tax returns all of you were so eager to see and aren’t gonna get.

    This may all be bluff.

    But just think about what Michelle would have her lawyer allege about Barack. Seen Vera Baker around lately?

  127. 207

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    2. It’s as newsworthy as Mitt’s hijinks in high school.

    Um, no again, moron.

    On the one hand, a privileged asshole bullying gay kids and others, very reminiscent of his later life behavior; on the other hand a married couple in a very high pressure public position think about divorce.

    Yeah, exactly alike. Putz.

  128. 208

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Then if it’s allegations from Michelle about Barack, then yeah, Lib Pinocchio, in an election year, it’s germane.

    Germane – I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

  129. 209

    spews:

    @ 207

    “on the other hand a married couple in a very high pressure public position think about divorce.”

    What if Barack hit her? He’s got his finger on the nuclear trigger. Suppose he has an anger management issue? Isn’t it the peoples’ right to know about that?

    What if she alleges an addiction? Dishonesty? Infidelity? Disinterest in the children?

    Lib Pinocchio Despair, if it were a Republican, wouldn’t you be demanding to know?

  130. 210

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Lets assume for a moment that the Obamas were gearing up for a divorce, and that there were nasty allegations from Michelle about something salacious.

    Romney ally Donald Trump finds documentation of this, and in his own special, endearing style, bellows it to the world.

    Michelle and Barack appear together, bare their souls, demonstrate the stronger bond that emerged from those troubles, they bond with the zillions of Americans that can empathize and connect. They indirectly demonstrate what a cold, conniving vulture Willard is.

    Does Willard a world of good in his ambitions to lead the USA. Not.

  131. 211

    spews:

    @ 208

    Germane (HA version dictionary) adj.

    Referring to inappropriately procured dirt on a Republican in the possession of a Democrat.

    Ex: The amount of tax Mitt Romney paid 10 years ago is germane to this discussion, because it might affect how he responds to a domestic terrorist threat when he becomes Commander in Chief after kicking Obama’s ass in two weeks.

  132. 213

    spews:

    @ 210

    Let’s assume that Obama responded to the filing, and alleged that Michelle Obama is a gold-digging, lecherous, conniving bitch who has been driving him to drink and who cares about nothing other than her own upward mobility in the corporate arena.

  133. 214

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @211
    As much as you wish otherwise, Willard’s deft avoidance of taxes is completely relevant given his pretensions to lead the US.

    …when he becomes Commander in Chief after kicking Obama’s ass in two weeks.

    Oooo…Robert the radiologist is getting testy, testy.

  134. 217

    Rael spews:

    Re: Trump supposedly has Obama divorce papers …

    Anybody who’d listen to anything negative Donald Trump
    has to say about the Obamas’ marriage is an idiot.

  135. 218

    spews:

    @ 217
    Anybody who’d listen to anything negative Donald Trump
    has to say about the Obamas’ marriage is an idiot.

    Anybody who’d listen to unsourced allegations about Mitt Romney’s tax returns uttered by Harry Reid isn’t any smarter.

  136. 220

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    Someone’s sinking rather quickly.

    Um, wrong again, dipshit. Do you try to be this wrong?

    Look here.

    Obama and Romney have been stable for most of the year at 60/40. In fact, Romeny TANKED in September, and his October bounce has not gotten him back to where he was over the summer.

    I LOVE pointing out your mistakes.

  137. 221

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @213 Apparently you haven’t heard of “no fault” divorce, which has been around for, oh, forty years or so. In a no-fault divorce, you don’t have to allege anything, you simply file a paper that says you don’t want to be married to your spouse anymore.

  138. 224

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Oatmeal Bob is so certain of a Romney victory I fear for him if Obama wins. He might do something awful to himself, something beyond crying into his baby bottle; e.g., he might hurl himself from his high chair.

  139. 225

    spews:

    @ 220

    Hey, Lib Pinocchio, if Romney lost the debate to Obama last night, why is he up 3.2% on Intrade today? Use your own link.

    It can be a multiple answer scenario. Obama’s in trouble on so many levels.

  140. 228

    rhp6033 spews:

    In order for their to be a divorce, with charges and counter-charges, there would have to be a filing in court. Obviously, there is none, because if there were it would have been well documented by 2008.

    The best they might come up with is a draft of a petition for divorce, with accompanying paperwork, which was never filed.

    Or, it could all be something a right-wing paralegal working in a law office dreamed up and drafted.

    Why hasn’t it come out beforehand? Because it won’t stand the scrutiny of examination. That’s the nature of the “October Surprise”, as practiced by Karl Rove. Throw out something at the end of the month, so that you can spend the next two weeks trying to get the other side to play defensive.

  141. 229

    spews:

    @ 221

    No-fault divorce in IL doesn’t apply if there are children, RR.

    Illinois is a no-fault divorce state.

    This means that the party who wants a divorce does not have to show a specific misbehavior on the part of the other spouse, such as adultery, abandonment, drunkenness or addiction, abuse, etc.

    The party simply has to state that there is no chance the marriage will be patched up, and that is sufficient grounds for a divorce.

    Illinios also has a simplified dissolution procedure which appears to be modeled on that in California. You can get a divorce simply by filing a paper and attending a single session with the judge in “simple” situations where the following apply:

    The marriage was 8 years or less.
    There are no children and the wife is not pregnant by the husband.
    There is no real estate.
    Total property owned is less than $10,000.
    Total combined gross income is less than $35,000 a year.
    Neither party individually has a gross income from all sources of more than $20,000 a year.
    There will be no alimony.

    The parties have been separated for six months.
    Parties have fully shared with each other all financial information.
    The parties signed a written agreement dividing the assets and allocating debts.
    Sections 5/401, 5/452.

  142. 232

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    He might do something awful to himself, something beyond crying into his baby bottle; e.g., he might hurl himself from his high chair.

    I just hope he doesn’t go the way of Robert A. Hawkins and shoot up a mall somewhere.

  143. 233

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

    @225
    Dipshit, wrong AGAIN.

    Look at the last 50 trades, Obama is up and Romney is tanking.

    Longer term, as I said, Romney, despite the October ‘bounce’ has not gotten as high as he was over most of the summer.

    buh-bye

  144. 234

    spews:

    @ 230


    Who here doesn’t think that the Clinton campaign would not have released papers like that (or rumors of the existence of such) in the heat of the 2008 Dem primary?

    I guess since no one has seen Barack’s undergrad transcripts, they must not exist.

  145. 235

    spews:

    @ 231


    My beef with the President in this debate is that he did not correct Willard Romney’s reference to “Democrat” Senators.

    Rujax, your beef with the debate is that it wasn’t conducted completely by Sesame Street characters using small words.

  146. 236

    spews:

    @ 233

    Look at the last 50 trades, Obama is up and Romney is tanking.

    Romney is up 3.2% on the day, but since the last 50 trades have him down 0.2%, he’s ‘tanking’?

    Dude, don’t be personally responsible for the college investments you have made for your children. Give them a chance to succeed. Turn everything over to someone who hasn’t sustained a massive head injury.

  147. 237

    spews:

    Richard @ 128,
    Thanks for that interesting analysis. I cannot find an email from you, but I sent you an email with some alternative email addresses to try.

    RE: discrepancy between state-weighted popular vote and the averages of national polls: There are two obvious explanations.

    First, it may be sampling error. If you used all of the current polls, you have a sample size of 105,339 responses from 146 polls. The RCP average of national polls has a sample size of 11,328.

    Second, the state head-to-head polls are, on average, made up of older evidence. Therefore any change in the dynamics of the race are more quickly caught by the national polls.

  148. 238

    Richard Pope spews:

    Rabbit @ 221

    Illinois is NOT Washington and is NOT California.

    Illinois does NOT have “no fault” divorce.

    You have to have either (1) two years of actual separation (without sexual intercourse, etc. at all) or (2) prove one of several possible fault grounds — such as physical or mental cruelty, or adultery.

    If Donald Trump has really unearthed previously sealed Obama v. Obama divorce papers, they could be explosive. Most of the time, the wife is the petitioner for divorce, especially in “fault” states.

    Imagine a notarized divorce petition signed by Michelle Obama, accusing Barack Obama of “cruelty” of some sort. The effect could be devastating …

    Of course, the Donald is a congenial liar — or is that a congenital liar — and I would be as skeptical of Obama’s Illinois divorce papers, as I am of his Kenyan birth certificate …

  149. 239

    Piltdown Man spews:

    231. Rujax!…”bob”, puddypussy, maxeeeee, and the Cyniklown: “The League of Delusionary Assholes” spews:
    My beef with the President in this debate is that he did not correct Willard Romney’s reference to “Democrat” Senators.

    10/23/2012 AT 2:40 PM

    For once, I agree with the loser known as rujaxoff – Romney should have used the correct term “Demorats”…..although “Democrooks” would have sufficed as well.

  150. 240

    Hahhahahaahahahahahhahhahahaahhaahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahaha-cough-cough-hahahahhhhhahhahahahahhhachortlehahahahhahahhahhhhahaahhaahahhaahhahahahhahahhhahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahhahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahha spews:

    lol

  151. 242

    Richard Pope spews:

    Wouldn’t it be great if Donald Trump & Gloria Allred’s October surprise is they’ll be making a tandem jump off of the Brooklyn Bridge?

  152. 243

    Hahhahahaahahahahahhahhahahaahhaahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahaha-cough-cough-hahahahhhhhahhahahahahhhachortlehahahahhahahhahhhhahaahhaahahhaahhahahahhahahhhahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahhahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahha spews:

    @242

    YES!

  153. 244

    spews:

    Romney should have used the correct term “Demorats”…..although “Democrooks” would have sufficed as well.

    Nice to know that you “abhor” the Republicans more than those you call “Demorats” or “Democrooks”..

    Self identified progressives are very much to the left of mainstream D’s. And you say you “abhor” Republicans ALMOST as much..

    LOL!

  154. 245

    Piltdown Man spews:

    AWWWW…YLBitch is sad because I refuse to play by his rules…

    here’s a secret chump: I dont care what you think.