It’s hard to be a “populist” when you don’t have any people, and that’s why Tim Eyman’s campaign to qualify I-864 for the ballot is all but dead.

That’s right… I-864, his “25% property tax cut” initiative will not qualify for the November ballot.

Some might call this prediction premature, but all signs are that Eyman has dramatically pulled back — or eliminated entirely — the paid signature gathering efforts for I-864. I fully expect that his public disclosure filing (due Thursday) will confirm that he is far short of the money needed to buy his way onto the ballot.

Rumor has it that I-892, his “Slots for Tots” initiative, is proving harder to qualify than expected, and that his gambling industry backers threatened to pull their funding if he didn’t focus on I-892 exclusively. After all, they are paying him $3,100 a week, and they expect to get an initiative in return. And so I-864 has been abandoned.

I suppose that’s what his loyal supporters get for prepaying his salary.

Eyman likes to say that government never reforms itself when it is “fat and happy.” Well, let’s just say that Eyman’s own initiative business is suffering from a severe case of jovial obesity.

A few years back he had the opportunity to build a real grassroots movement. Instead he got hooked on easy money, and the easy signatures it buys. He’s got no organization to speak of, and dwindling credibility and public support.

Of course, he’ll claim victory if I-892 gets enough signatures… some corny piece of rhetoric like “I’m batting .500!” But as a piece of legislation, I-892 is doomed too. Voters simply do not want to expand gambling in their neighborhoods, and they certainly don’t want to put slot machines into local bars, restaurants and bowling alleys. Besides… (and you heard it here first) the initiative is clearly unconstitutional. (What is it about Article II, Section 19 of our State Constitution that is so difficult for him to understand?)

So put a fork in Tim, he’s done. And once it’s in there, give it a little twist.

I often disagree with Seattle Times editorial page editor James Vesely, and the opening paragraphs to Sunday’s column are no exception. He once again dismisses those who say we need a state income tax as “tax collectors instead of taxpayers.” [Are we taxed to death or taxed to congestion?]

We may not want an income tax. We may be distrustful of those who propose an income tax. But we need an income tax, and some day we are going to get one. The only question is whether it arises out of a reasoned debate, or some kind of catastrophic political and economic meltdown.

That said, the rest of his column is right on the money in praising and summarizing the adjoining commentary by UW law professor Hugh Spitzer. [Washington state’s upside-down tax system]

Professor Spitzer’s thesis is that public policy should drive how we devise our tax system, whereas in Washington State our tax structure has been driving and distorting public policy.

I know it’s a bit a wonkish, and not the easiest or most entertaining read, but I strongly encourage you to labor through it. It’s about as clear an explanation of these very complicated issues as you are likely to find.

Whenever I delve into the complexities of our tax structure I am reminded how incredibly simplistic Tim Eyman’s understanding of these issues really is. It is simply amazing that we have let somebody like Tim drive our tax policy, while we ignore the advice of our best and brightest.

(But not for long… nudge, nudge, wink, wink…)

It’s a lazy Sunday, so I was just going to pile on Collin Levey [The less you know, the Moore you blame,] this time for her extraneous reference to “the flailing Democratic talk-radio station Air America.” (I suppose if the WSJ published a dictionary, she might look up the word “flailing” and see that beating Rush Limbaugh’s ratings head-to-head in the NY market, doesn’t quite fit the definition.)

But then, we all know she’s just following orders from her leaders at Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, Inc. They’re scared liberal talk-radio might have a market, so the echo chamber has been doing its darndest to convince potential advertisers, listeners and imitators otherwise.

My guess is that Ms. Levey has spent more than a few hours trembling with uncertainty, listening to the very entertaining O’Franken Factor streaming over the internet. And if she hasn’t, it’s probably because she’s too busy writing a review of the show to actually bother listening to it.

Of course, if writing a blog were as simple as lampooning Collin Levey’s columns, everybody would be doing it. (In fact, a quick Google search turns up no less than 9 blogs devoted exactly to that, plus one celebrity fanzine with a photo gallery of Collin hanging on the arms of various Hollywood hunks.)

But my readers demand a little more effort than Ms. Levey’s, and so I’d like to direct all several of you to an editorial in today’s Olympian: “Library system would be hit hard by I-864.”

Reading this editorial was like watching Smarty Jones run the Belmont Stakes. From the headline, it looked unbeatable. It established position out of the gate, set a strong pace, and came out of the final turn looking like a champion. Unfortunately, it was edged out by misinformation in the final furlong… uh, paragraphs.

Eyman and other initiative supporters will say the lost revenue due to the 25 percent property tax reduction will be made up for with taxes on expanded gambling opportunities.

Perhaps, but as library supporters correctly point out, there is nothing in Initiative 864 that requires that library, fire or cemetery districts, cities and counties be made whole for the tax dollars they lose with a 25 percent property tax reduction. How those additional gambling tax dollars are spent will be up to state lawmakers. Library district funding isn’t even on the radar screen for most legislators, given the demands of paying for schools, colleges and social services.

I believe I may have previously mentioned that Tim Eyman is a lying, thieving, blowhard. But even Tim has never attempted to suggest that local revenue losses from I-864 might be offset by revenues from the 19,000 slot machines legalized by I-892.

And even if he had, The Olympian’s editors would have quickly discerned that I-864 and I-892 have absolutely nothing to do with each other… if only they had read the initiatives.

I-864 cuts regular local levies by 25%, and The Olympian performs a great service for its readers by so clearly explaining its devastating impact on libraries.

I-892 legalizes slot machines in neighborhood bars, restaurants, and bowling alleys, dramatically expanding gambling in our communities. It further mandates that all tax revenues generated by the estimated $23 billion in new wagering, be used to reduce the state property tax, dollar for dollar.

The initiatives leave the Legislature absolutely no discretion to offset the impact of one, with revenues from the other, and to suggest otherwise is to give the something-for-nothing crowd a glimmer of hope they do not deserve. If I-864 passes, local governments will not do “more with less.” They will do “less with less,” and it is a shame The Olympian dilutes this message with such a clearly erroneous aside at the end of an otherwise excellent editorial.

I know it sometimes sounds like I’m nitpicking, and I’ll be the first to admit that the media is doing a much better job educating the public about Eyman’s initiatives than they have in years past.

But it’s little misstatements like this that get picked up and repeated by others, that can be twisted to shape the public debate. Sometimes it happens through innocent water cooler conversation. And sometimes it happens through a columnist with an agenda.

Like most Americans, I haven’t yet had the opportunity to see Michael Moore’s new film, “Fahrenheit 9/11”, so I’m certainly not qualified to critique it.

But that doesn’t stop Seattle Times editorial columnist Collin Levey from attacking the film as a “dishonest infomercial” in her ideologically sanctioned screed, The Moore you know, the less you blame Disney.

Ms. Levey recently came to The Times, with some fanfare, from the Op/Ed pages of The Wall Street Journal: a prestigious publication with a well-earned reputation for thorough reporting and rabidly partisan, right-wing editorials.

Curious as to her journalistic rigor, I emailed Ms. Levey, asking her why she felt so comfortable characterizing as dishonest, a film she hadn’t seen. She curtly replied “You might find these useful:” and appended two columns by Alan Murray of — you guessed it — The Wall Street Journal. Barring clairvoyance, I can only infer that it was Mr. Murray’s description of the film from which she based her own impressions.

Of course, he didn’t see it either, but at least he bothered to tell his readers.

Ms. Levey, on the other hand, couldn’t spare a column inch to share her own methodology… which apparently consisted of a thorough reading of her former publication.

I’m guessing The Times didn’t know the bargain they were getting when they hired Ms. Levey. Not only do they gain the prestige of featuring a former WSJ editorialist, but they also get to harness the collected efforts of the colleagues she left behind.

If you’ve ever wondered what liberal critics mean when they refer to the “right-wing media echo chamber,” this is it. Whatever prompted Mr. Murray’s own ideological attacks, the party-line has now been repeated — indeed, amplified — in a local paper by a “local” columnist. The result (perhaps, the goal) is to transform a political charge into common wisdom… through sheer repetition.

The fact that Ms. Levey relies on the WSJ to support her thesis, understandably impresses her new bosses more than it does me. But the fact that she relies on the WSJ as the unattributed source of her thesis, should give us all pause.

I only hope that that The Times demands more journalistic rigor of its film reviewers than it does of its columnists.

Just to prove this blog is not “all Eyman all the time” this week’s Lie of the Week focuses on another lying sack of crap, Kemper Freeman Jr., and his intentionally misleading Initiative 883.

Listen to Junior’s paid signature gatherers and you’d think the initiative simply opened HOV lanes to all traffic during non-peak hours. (As if there are non-peak hours in the Puget Sound region.)

But flip the petition over and read the fine print and you’ll see the true intent of the legislation (take note, Tim…) clearly stated in the title:

AN ACT Relating to reducing traffic congestion by making road construction to reduce traffic congestion the top priority of the state transportation system;

That HOV stuff is just a slick pick-up line, intended to distract voters while Junior slips them a mickey. Come November 3, the body politic is going to wake up bruised and disoriented, wondering if it really said “yes” to building new highways at the expense of maintaining our existing roads, bridges, rail, buses and ferries.

Of course, nobody other than a pathetic wonk like me actually bothers to read the text of the initiative. Apparently, not even many of the journalists we rely on to keep us informed of the issues.

The Tacoma News Tribune refers to I-883 as “the car-pool lane initiative,” The King County Journal calls it an “initiative campaign to open up car-pool lanes and spend gas taxes on fixing congestion,” and the venerable Seattle Times kicked off their coverage with the headline: “Initiative filed to open HOV lanes in off-hours.”

Yes… I-883 does have a provision that opens up HOV lanes in off-hours. And Eyman’s I-892 dramatically expands the authority of the Washington State Lottery Commission. But neither of these provisions are the legal or actual subject of their respective initiatives.

Voters deserve to know the primary subject of I-883: that it reduces state spending on road maintenance and mass transit by 20%, and earmarks the money towards new road construction.

You know what else it would be nice for voters to understand? That the initiative is personally financed by Kemper Freeman Jr.

Why? Well Junior is the state’s largest developer of shopping malls. New freeways will have new exits. And along these exits, what do you build? Shopping malls!

I’m not naive. I expect Junior’s paid signature gatherers to be selling I-883 with lies. I just expect a better job from the media refuting them with the truth.

I like to be an equal opportunity crap kicker.

After taking The Seattle Weekly to task, I poured through the pages of The Stranger in search of a muse. Alas, I was museless.

(It’s not that The Stranger didn’t print anything stupid to make fun of, it’s just that I prefer this blog to focus on cunning politicians, not cunni…. well, you know where I’m going there.)

So I reluctantly flipped to the latest issue of the Weekly, and what do I find? An absolutely excellent column by George Howland on the plague of paid signature gatherers. [Decline to Sign]

Of course George isn’t saying anything I haven’t already said in much fouler language. But man is it heartening to hear it said so bluntly in a “respectable” publication, coming from a “respectable” journalist.

I won’t bother to repeat the column here; I urge you to read it for yourself.

So George, I’d graciously like to offer back some of the crap I’ve kicked out of the Weekly. Just hold onto it tightly: I’ve got steel-tipped boots.

Last week I kicked the crap of The Seattle Weekly’s Knute Berger [But Knute, there’s so much crap to kick…] for whining about the public’s tendency to “kick the crap out of the news media.” [E Pluribus Stupid]

While I still stand by my original crap kicking, Knute did make the very important point that the public has a responsibility to educate itself. My experience at Folklife last weekend drives home the fact that many voters are failing to live up to this obligation, while others are finding it impossible to do so.

Why the average citizen would be willing to put his signature on a petition he hasn’t read is beyond me… but this sociological curiosity has become the basis for a very lucrative industry.

Most of the people signing initiatives had no idea what they were penning their name to. A paid signature gatherer might be carrying as many as seven different petitions, and once he cajoled a voter to sign one, it was very easy for him to flip through the others.

Unless… somebody like me was there to explain the true impact of the initiatives. Indeed, on more than one occasion, a small crowd gathered around as I conducted an informal Q&A session on one initiative or another. These were engaged citizens who asked good questions — questions that apparently have not been sufficiently answered in the news media.

My argument with Knute’s thesis (apart from the self-indulgent whining,) is its total lack of subtlety. Yes, citizens have the responsibility to educate themselves. But the news media has the responsibility to give them the tools to do so.

Following that line of reasoning I suppose I should applaud Knute for helping to educate citizens about their responsibility to educate themselves. Or deride him for failing to effectively do so.

I feel a tautology coming on. Or a paradox. (Which is, of course, a tautology.)

Whatever. I think I better just stick to crap kicking.

When it comes to the initiative process, I’ve come to expect columnists and editorialists to miss the point. But in his current column [Stir up enough people, and you get initiative(s)], Bill Virgin seems to miss his own point when he writes:

“To get a reading on the hot-button issues that have the citizenry riled up, you could monitor the letters-to-the-editor column. You could sample what callers and hosts are gabbing about on talk radio shows.

Or you can scan the list of initiatives on file at the Secretary of State’s Office.”

Huh? Bill correctly states that all that is required to file an initiative is a $5.00 fee, and makes a point of mentioning some of the truly screwy initiatives that have been filed over the past couple years. So then, how does he jump to the conclusion that scanning the list of filed initiatives somehow puts his finger on the pulse of the people?

(Come to think of it, monitoring the letters-to-the-editor or talk radio shows is not a very reliable finger in the wind either.)

The bulk of initiative sponsors are crackpots, wide-eyed idealists, monied special interests… and paid professionals like Tim Eyman. Only the rarest of initiatives truly represent the popular expression of a riled citizenry.

Rarer still is a populist initiative that claws its way onto the ballot with a grassroots volunteer campaign.

Bill’s attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff, and look to those initiatives with the best chance of qualifying as a stronger measure of popular sentiment is an even more pointless exercise. Unless of course, one measures popular sentiment in dollars… which I suppose wouldn’t be surprising coming from a business columnist.

Let’s be totally honest about this. The initiatives that qualify for the ballot will be those that raise the most money — usually in large chunks from the special interests who have the most to gain by their passage.

It is not a riled citizenry that gets initiatives on the ballot… it is cold, hard, cash.

When I was in high school I took an SAT prep course where the instructor started by saying: “The only thing the SATs test, is how well you take the SATs.”

The Secretary of State’s list of initiatives tells you a lot about the intent of the sponsors, but in itself, it says little more about the will of the people than, well… Bill Virgin’s column.

So Bill… please don’t give Kemper Freeman and Tim Eyman any more credit than they deserve. They don’t need your credit. They already have plenty of cold, hard, cash.

I was back at Folklife today, this time with my 7-year-old daughter instead of flyers. But I couldn’t help notice the dearth of petitions for I-864 and I-892. In fact the only petitioner I saw hawking I-864 was flanked by two Think Before You Ink volunteers, quietly holding placards.

The rest of the paid signature gatherers got the message that Eyman’s petitions were bad for business, and instead focused on more lucrative initiatives.

Eyman’s going to be pissed about this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a bit of a stink in the media. But I can tell you from my own personal experience that I didn’t keep a single person from signing his initiatives. The truth did. When voters understand the truth about I-864 and I-892, they simply don’t want to sign the petitions.

As I’ve said before, there is a reason why Eyman lies: it works.

Apparently, so can the truth.

What does it say about Tim Eyman, our alleged initiative “king,” when paid signature gatherers are afraid he’s giving them a bad name?

I spent a good portion of the day at Folklife, working with a handful of volunteers to shadow paid signature gatherers and ask voters not to sign I-864 or I-892. The one signature firm that was not handling either of Eyman’s initiatives had their workers prominently displaying “Not an Eyman Initiative” buttons. They were doing a brisk business.

The other paid signature gatherers were not so fortunate. Our simple message that voters should read the initiative and understand its impact before signing, pretty much made getting signatures impossible. Some signature gatherers actually handed over their Eyman petitions if we promised to leave them alone so they could focus on other petitions. Others left, grumbling that this was the last time they’d hawk an Eyman initiative.

The good news is that the exercise turned out to be very effective. The bad news is that we’re going to need a lot more volunteers to keep these initiatives off the ballot.

The Voter Education Committee is coordinating this “Think Before You Ink” campaign, and I encourage you all to join in the effort. I’ve posted more information at TaxSanity.org. You can also call their hotline at 800-856-2465 to learn how you can make a difference.

Together, we can make Washington State safe for direct democracy.

Tim is so rude. He never replies to my email. [“Dear Tim…”]

However I recently received a thoughtful epistle from one of his supporters, and though I tend to keep private correspondence, um… private, in light of the fact that he didn’t bother to use a real email address I thought I’d take the liberty of replying publicly.

Klaus (not his real name) writes: “Hey Goldberg,” (not my real name,) “I’m sic [sic] and tired of lefty east coast ivy league leaches [sic] like you moving out here and attacking REAL AMERICANS like Tim Eyman [really sick]. I’d tell you to go back where you came from, but nobody wants your people back.”

Hmmm. Where to start?

Well first, I hate to admit it Klaus, but you’re right: I am an Ivy Leaguer. I shamefully graduated with a B.A. in History from the University of Pennsylvania, where I was obviously indoctrinated in left-wing politics, and unlike you… spelling.

I suppose if I were a “REAL AMERICAN like Tim” (better check that sticky shift key, Klaus,) I would have majored in UPSIDE-DOWN MARGARITAS at a REAL SCHOOL like WSU.

But then, my “people” aren’t REAL AMERICANS, are we? We are “lefty east coast ivy league leaches [sic]” … by which, of course, you mean JEWS.

And as a Jew, I could never be a REAL AMERICAN like you or Tim or I-892’s biggest financial backer, the Great CANADIAN Gaming Corporation.

That said, I do have one nit to pick with your otherwise cogent observations: I’m pretty sure I would in fact be quite welcome if I were to decide to go back where I came from.

Philadelphia is a cosmopolitan city with a vibrant art and theater scene, and a diverse populace that understands that deep down, the most meaningful difference between your people and my people is that my people occasionally like to eat smoked fish for breakfast.

(And, we know how to spell.)

Well, I figured if I couldn’t get the media to stop repeating Eyman’s lies, then I would have to go straight to the horse’s… uh… mouth. Following is an email I sent to Tim Eyman today, and CC’d to the media:

Dear Tim,

I was hoping you could help me set the record straight in the media regarding the provision of I-892 that funds treatment of problem gambling.

You have repeatedly claimed that based on $1.15 billion in net revenues, I-892 would generate $11.5 million to treat problem gambling… which amounts to 1% of net revenues. However, Section 8 of I-892 clearly states that 1% of tax receipts are dedicated to treat problem gambling — about $4 million based on your revenue projections — or roughly one-third your claim.

I can only assume that you were unaware of your mathematical error, and would not knowingly repeat such grossly inaccurate information for fear of damaging your otherwise unsullied reputation as an honest and impartial arbiter of the truth.

Now that I have pointed out your mistake, I trust that you will revise your talking points to include the accurate, smaller number, as surely a citizen activist of your standing would never sacrifice the truth for the sake of a rhetorical advantage.

I continue to enjoy our close working relationship. Once this issue has been settled, I look forward to working with you to explicate the analytical basis of your revenue projections, which up until now appear to have simply been pulled out of your butt crack.

Hugs and kisses,

David

Enough said.

What does it take to get a reporter to pull out a goddamn calculator?!

Eyman says about $1.1 billion would be generated — nearly doubling the gambling industry’s net receipts in Washington last year. Thirty-five percent of that would go toward property tax relief.

The measure would also earmark 1 percent of those funds for problem gambling treatment, an amount Eyman says would total about $11 million, though critics say the number is greatly exaggerated.

This from an otherwise decent article in the Seattle P-I [Funding for problem gamblers]. But again, it repeats the lie!

All the numbers are there! And all the reporter had to do was add them up: ($1.1 billion * 35%) * 1% = $3.8 million, NOT $11 million as Eyman says.

What the fuck is so hard to understand here?!

It’s not “critics” who say the number is greatly exaggerated, it’s BASIC MATH!

(Hey Knute… and you wonder why people kick the crap out of the media?)

Todays Tacoma News Tribune has a great article about a new campaign to get the Legislature to provide permanent funding for treating Washington’s growing epidemic of compulsive gambling [New effort to treat gamblers.]

Great article… but…

It repeats the Lie of the Week:

“Eyman estimates that I-892 would provide $11.5 million a year for problem-gambling treatment, in addition to $400 million in property tax relief.”

If another newspaper repeats this lie, I am going to have an aneurism. Tim doesn’t even understand his own initiative! The real figure, based on Tim’s own revenue projections is only $4 million.

Again… this is not my opinion… it is simple math.

I-892 taxes the profit from slot machines at a rate of 35%. 99% of these tax dollars go to reduce the state property tax, and the other 1% goes to treat problem gambling.

Let’s forget for a moment that Tim’s estimate of $1.15 billion in profits is pulled out of his ass, without any supporting evidence. It is the figure that Eyman uses to calculate his promise of a $400 million tax cut, so it is our starting point.

$1.15 billion * .35 = $400 million in tax revenues. $400 million * .01 = $4 million to treat problem gambling, with the other $396 million going to reduce the property tax.

Is that really so hard?

At this point, some in the media might be rolling their eyes, thinking $4 million is still a lot money, so what’s the big deal? Well first… Eyman lies for a reason: it works. And second, that $4 million is pissing into the wind of the tornado of gambling that I-892 will bring down on our state.

As I’ve written before, the industry average payback on slot machines is 95%; that means Tim’s “estimate” of $1.15 billion in profits requires $23 billion in gross wagering.

That’s less than a penny to treat problem gambling, for every $57 million wagered. (Do the math yourself this time.)

Okay there’s the Lie of the Week. But before I finish my rant, I want to reiterate to the media why attributing Eyman’s “estimate” in quotes — or even including a rebuttal from me — doesn’t let you off the hook.

Eyman makes statements of fact that can easily be confirmed or refuted through a simple examination of the numbers in question. His oft repeated claims of a $400 million tax cut cannot possibly add up to $11.5 million to treat problem gambling, and can’t help but add up to $23 billion in gross wagering.

And it is the media’s responsibility to explain these numbers to the public, not mine.

In the current issue of The Seattle Weekly, Knute Berger complains about the public’s tendency to “kick the crap out of the news media” [E Pluribus Stupid,] suggesting that people have themselves to blame for their own ignorance.

“Well, here’s an idea: Instead of shooting messengers, why not do America a big favor and tackle your own ignorance? “

I think somebody needs a hug.

In his despair, Knute has overlooked one of the great things about being a journalist in this country: Americans generally don’t actually shoot messengers (even the ones that truly deserve it.) We criticize. We complain. We occasionally curse. But we don’t shoot.

And we do it because we know you can do better. Think of it as tough love.

Personally, I happen to have great respect for the media, and I think the reporters who know me can sense that. (You wouldn’t know Knute, because The Weekly has never deemed my activities as worthy of coverage as, say… Tim Eyman. I guess calling someone a “horse’s ass” is less respectable than being one.)

In fact, it is because I respect the press so much, that I occasionally kick the crap out of it. And even if I didn’t, what’s the big deal? My blog averages maybe 80 readers a day, whereas The Weekly claims a circulation of about 100,000. (Twice that, when they try to sell me an ad.)

And if you’re really so bothered by all the negative “watercooler conservation,” I’d say you’re spending way to much time sneaking around watercoolers. It’s a little creepy.

The point is, don’t take it so personal Knute.

And stop shooting your audience.