Reichert weak heading into home stretch

A new poll conducted on behalf of EMILY’s List shows incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert holding a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over challenger Darcy Burner, 44% to 43% — well within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error. This is the second poll in as many weeks to show the race in a dead heat… and that’s about the best news the Reichert folks can squeeze from these numbers.

WA-08 ratings

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Reichert is vulnerable. His favorable ratings are below 50 percent, and he actually suffers a 6 point deficit in job approval.

And that’s not the worst of it. In a generic congressional match-up, 8th CD voters favor Democrats over Republicans 44% to 34%. Meanwhile, President Bush’s ratings have dropped through the floor, with a 36% to 59% favorable/unfavorable rating, and a stunningly low 28% to 71% job approval rating. This is simply a terrible climate for a Republican incumbent… especially one who has had high-profile visits from President Bush and Karl Rove.

As for Burner, she clearly still has a lot of work to do, but she has tremendous upside. Burner enjoys a 2.5 to 1 favorable ratio, but her name ID still stands below 50 percent. According to the pollsters:

“Burner has significant opportunities to grow in her name identification among younger voters (especially women), parents, the less well-educated, and residents of Pierce County and Legislative Districts 25/33/45 and 41. Introducing her to these voters with a positive message will help boost her performance. Indeed, almost 70% of Congressional undecideds know little about her.”

No doubt the righty trolls will dismissively pooh-pooh this poll, just as they did the previous one, but at some point they’re going to have to move off of the “Darcy isn’t a credible candidate” meme and start arguing this race based on Reichert’s record and the issues. For one thing should be abundantly clear to all but the most partisan Republican boosters: Burner can win this race.

But notice the emphasis on the word “can”. “Can” and “will” are not the same thing, and Burner can’t beat Reichert without your help. The NRCC has already started pulling money out of some hopeless races, but that’s not going to happen in WA-08, for the Republicans have no chance of holding control of the House if they can’t hold seats in suburban districts like Reichert’s. Districts like WA-08 will likely be ground zero in the GOP’s battle to retain their majority, so expect a firestorm of TV ads to blitz the airwaves, attacking Burner and defending Reichert. Burner can survive, but only if she has the resources to respond.

So if you haven’t yet given, or you haven’t given all you can give, now is the time to make a contribution to Darcy Burner and Peter Goldmark. If we can’t take back with House with great candidates like these, we’ll have only ourselves to blame.

Comments

  1. 1

    Jim King spews:

    Skagit, you sick piece of rodent turd- I’m from Tacoma, where if it ain’t Chihuly, it ain’t art…

  2. 4

    JDB spews:

    Now here is something that needs to be reposted:

    When Sager asked [Dick] Armey, “What’s wrong with today’s Republican Congress,” Armey replied:

    The criteria of choice in just about every behavior you see in Congress today is politics. Where in the hell did this Terri Schiavo thing come from? There’s not a conservative, Constitution-loving, separation-of-powers guy alive in the world that could have wanted that bill on the floor. That was pure, blatant pandering to James Dobson. That’s all that was. It was silly, stupid, and irresponsible. Nobody serious about the Constitution would do that. But the question was will this energize our Christian conservative base for the next election.

    http://mediamatters.org/items/200609260013

  3. 5

    Daddy Love spews:

    Mike McGavick tells Josh Feit:

    “I do not comment on state initiatives because I’m focused on the federal issues. There’s plenty of issues to ask me about all day long. And by the way, the precedent for that was set by Scoop and Maggie.”

    Of course, Mike! isn’t even IN THE SENATE. But Maria is.

  4. 6

    Dr. Chim Richalds spews:

    It is great to be able to do something tangible and close to home to remove power from Cheney and his loyalists. Even if Reichert were a major intellect (he isn’t) and bucked the Republican party line most of the time (he doesn’t), the very fact he has an “R” by his name means he must go. This is our opportunity to apply the brakes to the neocons, and by God, we must seize it.

  5. 8

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    By the way, I don’t hate you. I despise you. I loathe you. But I don’t hate. That would just not be very “Christian” of me.

    Commentby My Left Foot [Carl Grossman, “Jewish” [???] Democrat]

  6. 9

    Daddy Love spews:

    I’m sure that Darcy is “focused on federal issues” too.

    Isn’t sending Gay Pride Dave home a federal issue?

  7. 10

    Tim Lancaster spews:

    I was in attendance at the Washington State Democratic Central Committee meeting on 9/30/06 and listened intently to your advice to the memebers on what we need to do to win the 2006 election. I wholeheartedly agree that we need to work with the Progressive web blogs to get our message out to the media. Keep up the get work, and I’ll send a monetary contribution soon.
    -Tim

  8. 12

    Daddy Love spews:

    Dengle

    kinda seems like a local law enforcement issue, isn’t it? The very kind of issue which Mike! McGavick said he would not address because he was running for a federal office.

  9. 13

    Leftout(of their minds!) spews:

    Washington Senate: Bounce for Cantwell Fading, She Now Leads by 6

    McGavick ® 42%; Cantwell (D) 48%
    September 25, 2006

    Democratic Senator Maria CantwellDemocratic Senator Maria Cantwell’s lead over Republican Mike McGavick has slumped by eleven percentage points—the same amount by which it spiked in our early-September poll.

    Cantwell now leads McGavick 48% to 42% (see crosstabs). That’s the same spread the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed in mid-August, though both contenders have added a couple points to their support since then.

    The relapse means we’re shifting the race from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. This race has shifted ground more than any other state, but always between “Leans Democrat” and “Democrat.”

    Oooooops….and not a word from Mr. Goldstein.
    I’m sure Bill Clinton’s interview with Chris Wallace will help the Democrats, huh?

    Commentby Leftout(of their minds!)— 9/26/06@ 12:12 pm

    Perhaps David can share with us now the EMILY’S LIST Poll has the Cantwell/McGavick Race????????

    Commentby Leftout(of their minds!)— 9/26/06@ 1:02 pm

    Leftout:

    So what are your thoughts about Goldy’s post that addresses Burner/Reichert?

    Commentby Jim Waldman— 9/26/06@ 1:05 pm

    Jim—
    I asked about this same polling schlock outfits results on the McGavick/Cantwell contest so I could compare their spread with that of a very reliable, proven track record polling organization in Rasmussen.
    Seems like a reasonable question, doesn’t it?
    I’ll bet David’s schlock polling outfit has Cantwell by 40 points!

  10. 14

    For the Clueless spews:

    Re: Jim Miller

    When was the last time he voted for a Democrat? The guy’s a nut!

    If the (un)SP people are calling Jim Miller a “lefty Democrat” then you need no further proof that site is lousy with insane, wingnut whackjobs and should NEVER be taken seriously.

  11. 16

    skagit spews:

    Why arn’t you blaming our Senators – Both Democrats! Where is the bacon (Pork) for Washington State? The only pork I saw were pink pigs in Seattle and more money from the Feds for the Seattle Art Musuem’s Sculpture Park via Murray. She must love naked men with naked little boys!

    Commentby sgmmac— 9/26/06@ 5:56 pm

    Hey, Smeg, you and Jim King sound like just the two to go picketing the museums “filthy” sculpture. I’m sure King’s gotta little one and you two could have some fun finding it.

  12. 17

    JDB spews:

    Great article on what the NIE actually says. Not what Bush and his supporters want you to think:

    But Bush was clearly wrong to suggest that the Times mischaracterized the NIE. The document he released says what the New York Times reported. Hey, don’t take my word for it. Read it yourself, below and on the following three pages.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2150435/entry/0/

  13. 19

    Jim Waldman spews:

    Leftout:

    So what are your thoughts about Goldy’s post that addresses Burner/Reichert?

  14. 21

    rhp6033 spews:

    Leftout is pissed because I’m having results, and he is just posting hate on a liberal blog.

    Of course its meaningless as a statistic. I said that in my own post. But I do know my neighbors. Even the retired career military guy next door is mad as hell, and is voting Democratic this time around. I haven’t seen a sea-change like this since 1976, when even conservatives voted Democrat to hold Republicans accountable for Watergate and the Nixon pardon.

  15. 22

    RightEqualsStupid spews:

    What’s RubberStampReichert’s stance on taking care of our vets? We don’t know because Davie is too busy hiding from Darcy to debate her.

  16. 23

    rhp6033 spews:

    sgmmac: Your timing is a bit off. Within the past week, Cantwell brought home a boatload of money for port security, she was co-sponsor of the bi-partison bill. Personally, I’m glad we are getting some of the money back, and its going toward something which really matters in Washington state. Unlike the “bridge to Nowhere” which was a pet project of Alaska Sen. Stevens, who is pissed off because his family won’t make out like bandits on their land deals, and has therefore become good buddies with McGavick.

    I guess Stevens feels Alaska needs a third Senator, and Washington state only needs one.

  17. 24

    Dengle spews:

    Yep…nothing that our Senators should really comment on….just wondering about the insurgency. We need to make sure that we quell these freedom fighters.

  18. 25

    RightEqualsStupid spews:

    The righties must be shitting all over themselves. They thought RubberStampReichert was a lock. Now they’re spending money that they didn’t plan to in order to stay in the race. Darcy could win this thing. And the fact that she’s even in the game should be a wake up call to the taliban wing of the GOP.

  19. 27

    Mike Barer spews:

    A Darcy Burner victory means that we will have an 8th District congressman that represents the 8th district! The recent visit by Karl Rove shows that Reichert’s agenda is controlled by Washington DC

  20. 28

    GBS spews:

    Only one polls matter and that will be conducted on Nov. 7 for Democrats and on November 8th for you wing-nut conservatives. Be sure to mark your voting day on your calendars.

  21. 29

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    “Perhaps you should shut your fucking mouth.”

    Commentby My Left Foot [Sue, Carl, sue!!!]

  22. 30

    My Left Foot spews:

    15.

    Once again, my friends, sarcasm, parody and satire go flying right over the heads of our WingNut friends.

    JCH, pull your head out of your ass. Pay attention. For God’s sake man, fake it.

  23. 31

    Jim King spews:

    I sure hope Darcy takes the pollsters’ advice and spends a LOT of time uppin her numbers in the 25th and 33rd Districts…

    And I’m still waiting for any legitimate journalist to report this poll…

  24. 32

    skagit spews:

    “And, again, I don’t know where he is. I — I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.”

  25. 33

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    7

    Anyone who supports the Republican agenda is NOT a centrist! There are no centrists left in the GOP, which is now an extremist party full of extremist partisans who want to take our country back to the robber-baron economics of the 1800s, and an ultra-nationalist, militaristic, aggressive xenophobia reminiscent of Slobodan Milosevicz. No centrist would try to defend a president as reckless and lawless as George W. Bush! This is not the party of Eisenhower or Dirksen anymore — and Reichert is nothing but an unthinking rubberstamp lackey for the neoconjob the GOP has become. Given Reichert’s dismal record of presiding over a corrupt Sheriff’s department and uninspiring record in Congress of rubberstamping every lie and crime of the Bush White House, it’s amazing 43% of the voters are still willing to vote for him! Reichert’s voters are in denial, or just plain have their heads up their asses.

  26. 34

    Daddy Love spews:

    From that damn NIE:

    “Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.”

    B-b-b-ut…I thought that this is what the president does well (if you don’t count Osama bin Laden, that is). He doesn’t do “coordinated multilateral efforts” well, that’s for those faggy French and the sissy Clinton bunch!

    Maybe Dave Reichert will save us. But it looks like killing and capturing won’t be enough. Dammit.

  27. 35

    rhp6033 spews:

    I haven’t been posting much lately. I have, however, been talking to all my neighbors. Seems most of them haven’t been watching the political races nearly as much as we have. But now they know all about McGavick’s lies about Cantwell “voting against Washington families”. They know that McGavick has yet to make a call urging the Republican-led house to vote to restore the State Sales Tax Deduction (you know, the bill sponsored by Cantwell which passed the Senate months ago, but which the House refuses to put to a vote). They know all about McGavick’s 20+ million dollar “bonus” from Safeco, which Safeco was not legally authorized to give to him unless it received equal value in return (and we know what that means)! I warned them about the flood of negative advertising which would flood the airwaves, paid for by Republican dollars (many of it from out-of-state), which will attempt to smear Cantwell.

    I would talk about Reichart too, except I don’t live in that district.

    So, of the 23 voting-age neighbors I have talked with over the past week or so, 21 have told me that they will vote for Cantwell. Sure, its not a blind poll, and some may tell me one thing, and vote another way. But for suburban Snohomish County, it’s not a bad result. This week I plan to get another fifty to commit to Cantwell.

    Fundraising is great, but if you aren’t out there talking to people, its just another commercial. Get busy, people!

  28. 36

    JDB spews:

    Jim Miller:

    Over 50% of the 8th disagree with you. Perhaps you all over at U(sp) are not the best experts at where the “center” is.

  29. 37

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    This Friday, soon to be known as “Fatwa Friday”, I will declare a “jihad” on stupid, dumb ass liberal Democrat posters on HA.ORG!!

  30. 40

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    Sen. Hillary Clinton defended her husband’s angry performance on Fox News Channel this weekend, saying he did a ‘great job’ on national security. Teresa defended Carl, saying he does a “great” job. Anyone else see a “trend” here????????????? hehe, JCH

  31. 41

    For the Clueless spews:

    Omigod Jim Miller has graced these threads?

    Any luck yet raising funds for the “Foundation for the Study of Distributed Vote Fraud”, i.e. “Democrats do it more”? We all know it costs at least a million dollars to “prove” it.

    What a crackpot!

  32. 42

    Thomas Trainwinder spews:

    @7

    Funny! Jim Miller, you get abused on SoundPolitics for being centrist and here for being centrist. There they accuse you of being a lefty democrat..here as a right winger republican.

    This highights the nuts on either side of the spectrum completely!

  33. 43

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    “You will get very little from me from now on.”

    Carl Grossman [……….Er, Carl, how do you explain the 7 additional posts by Carl “Rambo” Grossman, Christian Jewish Democrat?]

  34. 44

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    Only one polls matter and that will be conducted on Nov. 7 for Democrats and on November 8th for you wing-nut conservatives. Be sure to mark your voting day on your calendars.

    Commentby GBS [……Designed by Democrats, approved by Democrats, aand uses by Democrats in Democrat districts, the “butterfly ballot” was racist and “disenfranchize” dumb ass black Democrat voters.] hehe, JCH

  35. 45

    Leftout(of their minds!) spews:

    Interesting Mr. Goldstein slobbered all over hisself praising the very reliable Rasmussen Polls which showed Cantwell recently with a 17-point edge.
    Here is the very latest from Rasmussen yesterday:

    Washington Senate: Bounce for Cantwell Fading, She Now Leads by 6

    McGavick (R) 42%; Cantwell (D) 48%
    September 25, 2006

    Democratic Senator Maria CantwellDemocratic Senator Maria Cantwell’s lead over Republican Mike McGavick has slumped by eleven percentage points—the same amount by which it spiked in our early-September poll.

    Cantwell now leads McGavick 48% to 42% (see crosstabs). That’s the same spread the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed in mid-August, though both contenders have added a couple points to their support since then.

    The relapse means we’re shifting the race from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. This race has shifted ground more than any other state, but always between “Leans Democrat” and “Democrat.”

    Oooooops….and not a word from Mr. Goldstein.
    I’m sure Bill Clinton’s interview with Chris Wallace will help the Democrats, huh?

  36. 46

    Jim Miller spews:

    Reichert is way too much of a centrist for you extreme lefties to like. Face it….he’s good for the people here — he should be re-elected instead of an extreme left winger.

    Extremes are bad….centrists are good.

  37. 47

    Doctor JCH Kennedy spews:

    I think it is necessary to declare a “jihad” on dumb ass parasite liberal “progressive” Democrats!!!!!!

  38. 49

    hotels chicago holiday inn austin texas spews:

    agates:multiuser trouser profiting?haystack,blots,sour Islamic contributors

  39. 50

    spews:

    Ooo… At the very least this will get the Republicans really sweating it and burn through a ton of their cash.

  40. 51

    Daddy Love spews:

    Global competitiveness…

    I would think we were doing pretty well in that area, but from 2005 to 2006 we fell from first to sixth. Why?

    The problem? High standards. Damn them anyway. We’re being dinged because of our absurdly high trade imbalances and our also absurdly high annual budget deficits and ballooning public debt.

    “The US has seen its budget and trade deficits spiral in the past few years as a result of heavy government spending and rising trade imbalances with countries such as China and Japan. The US trade deficit is expected to top last year’s record level of $717 billion (£378bn; 565bn euros) in 2006, while the budget shortfall, although expected to be significantly lower than last year, is still forecast to be close to $300bn.

    ” ‘US competitiveness is threatened by large macroeconomic imbalances, particularly rising levels of public indebtedness associated with repeated fiscal deficits,’ the report said. ‘Its relative ranking remains vulnerable to a possible disorderly adjustment of such imbalances.’ “

    “Disorderly adjustment” is a polite way of saying things like massive recessions, unemployment, currency devaluations, high inflation…stuff like that. Economic shocks. Like Katrina, perfectly natural, and you can sure as hell see ‘em coming. Equally devastating.

    Thank your local Republican Member of Congress, Dave “Rubber Stamp” Reichert.

  41. 52

    Leftout(of their minds!) spews:

    “So, of the 23 voting-age neighbors I have talked with over the past week or so, 21 have told me that they will vote for Cantwell. Sure, its not a blind poll, and some may tell me one thing, and vote another way. But for suburban Snohomish County, it’s not a bad result. This week I plan to get another fifty to commit to Cantwell.
    Commentby rhp6033— 9/26/06@ 7:07 pm”

    so rhp6033…Perhaps the 21 who told you they were voting Cantwell just told you that so you would shut your f*cking mouth!
    These types of anecdotal polls are meaningless…obviously.

  42. 53

    sgmmac spews:

    @19, Daddy,

    Why arn’t you blaming our Senators – Both Democrats! Where is the bacon (Pork) for Washington State? The only pork I saw were pink pigs in Seattle and more money from the Feds for the Seattle Art Musuem’s Sculpture Park via Murray. She must love naked men with naked little boys!

  43. 54

    Leftout(of their minds!) spews:

    Perhaps David can share with us now the EMILY’S LIST Poll has the Cantwell/McGavick Race????????

  44. 55

    My Left Foot spews:

    Comment by Leftout(of their minds!)

    The anecdotal polls are as meaningful as each of your unwanted posts here at HA.

    Perhaps you should shut your fucking mouth.