(Who needs Saturday morning cartoons, when some seventy other media clips from the past week in politics can be found at Hominid Views.)
Columbian picks Obama
The Columbian newspaper, which in 2004 endorsed George W. Bush, has endorsed Barack Obama.
But as we examined leadership qualities of both men, we saw Obama’s massive strides in uniting his own Democratic party, even reaching beyond his party to speak to all Americans. McCain, in stark contrast, continues to slog through a fractious Republican Party that often is his worst enemy.
It takes strong leadership skills to enlist record numbers of volunteers and to continually explore new heights in the polls, as Obama methodically demonstrates.
As for judgment, Obama chose a running mate who neither hurt him in the polls nor diverted the spotlight from the main man on the ticket. McCain’s choice has done both. McCain tries to masquerade this recklessness as the virtue of a maverick. Would he use that same recklessness in appointing Supreme Court justices and Cabinet members? Which candidate in recent weeks has shown a presidential demeanor? Which could best restore worldwide respect for the U.S.? Which man has tried to soothe — not stoke — rancor in the homestretch of this campaign? Clearly, that man is Obama.
Wow. This endorsement will make the righties howl, if they have any howling left in them.
It’s been a pretty big day for Obama in newspaper-endorsement land, for what it’s worth. From Editor and Publisher:
The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for newspaper endorsements, picking up 16 more papers in the past day, including the giant Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune on Friday afternoon (see separate story), and the Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times tonight.
This brings his lead over McCain-Palin by this measure to over 3-1 so far, at 56-16, including most of the major papers that have decided so far. In contrast, John Kerry barely edged George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004, by about 220 to 205.
The readership of the 53 newspapers backing Obama now stands at well over 7 million. He gained two biggies yesterday in The Washington Post and San Francisco Chronicle, and today picked up the Modesto Bee in addition to the larger papers.
An interesting footnote: the Chicago Tribune has never endorsed a Democrat for president. Ever. Something about that Abraham Lincoln guy I think.
Is the political re-alignment of the United States very nearly complete? If you look at the maps Darryl has posted below, it would seem that way. The Republican’s Southern Strategy of 1968 has come to its final and logical conclusion, confining the GOP Party to the South and states that are rather southern in culture. (This isn’t my thinking, it’s put forth by none other than the mastermind of the Southern Strategy, Kevin Phillips, in his book “American Theocracy.”)
It would be nice if we get past our history some day, but the racist incidents and histrionics we are currently enduring in this campaign show we still have a ways to go. I know it’s going out on a limb to try to speak for most Americans, but you have to be pretty tone deaf not to pick up on the genuine longing for a leader who will do a good job and get this country working on the severe challenges we face.
Election Scorecard
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 369 electoral votes | Mean of 169 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 368 to 170 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday. With the release of 14 new polls from 12 states today, Obama edges forward in his electoral vote total.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all. Obama takes, on average, 369 of the 538 electoral votes. McCain takes 169. With little doubt, Obama would win an election held now.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Bonkers
Check out Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann on Hardball accusing Obama and other Democrats of potentially being anti-American:
This insane asylum escapee is in a tight re-election contest against Democrat El Tinklenberg, and you can help out him out here.
[UPDATE]: And there’s one other challenger in the Midwest who I’d love to see pull out a win. Michael Montagano is within 5 percentage points of Mark Souder (IN-3), who won 69% of the vote in 2004. Souder is one of the worst members of Congress when it comes to drug policy. Montagano’s ActBlue page is here.
Times endorses meanness
Apparently, the Seattle Times has endorsed Dino Rossi. I haven’t read it yet, but I’m guessing I don’t have to: “Budget deficit, blah, blah, blah… no taxes, blah, blah, blah… fuck Labor, blah, blah, blah… eat the children, blah, blah, blah…”
You know, typical Times ed board stuff.
Cutting the future
I’d imagine we’re going to be seeing more stories like this all around the state:
Faced with a dire state budget forecast, Clark College has announced a hiring freeze and asked executive department heads to cut budgets about 3 percent.
That might not be all, for the 12,500-student Vancouver college.
Deeper budget cuts may follow as the state economy continues to slide, Clark President Bob Knight wrote in an e-mail to the college community on Wednesday night.
Our state’s revenue system makes this sort of thing pretty much inevitable. I remember writing stories about such stuff during the George H.W. Bush recession back in the early 1990’s for a community college newspaper.
Sure, it’s easier to play politics than to actually prioritize, but for once I would like to hear Republicans state how much education (and thus our state’s future potential economic growth) they wish to cut. Vague “waste fraud and abuse” accusations don’t count. Where efficiency can really be improved, that’s great, but it takes hard work in boring hearings, not campaign talking points.
iPhlog: air travel sucks
I’ll explain later, but you know what I mean.
Supreme Court stops GOP suppression effort in Ohio
The United States Supreme Court has overturned an appellate court that ruled in favor of the Republican Party regarding voter registrations in Ohio.
In a brief unsigned opinion, the justices said they were not commenting on whether Ohio is complying with a provision of the Help America Vote Act of 2002 that lays out requirements for verifying voter eligibility.
Instead, they said they were granting Brunner’s request because it appears that the law does not allow private entities, like the Ohio GOP, to file suit to enforce the provision of the law at issue.
About 200,000 of 666,000 voters who have registered in Ohio since Jan. 1 have records that don’t match. Brunner has said the discrepancies most likely stem from innocent clerical errors rather than fraud but has set up a verification plan.
While this is heartening, it’s not the end of Republican monkey business. Josh Marshall, as usual, leads the way covering highly suspect Department of Justice actions, this time with the ridiculous FBI folderol regarding ACORN. If that’s not an attempt to screw with the outcome of the election, I don’t know what is. That lady from Alaska even mentioned it this morning on my tee-vee. Here’s a bit from TPM’s story this morning:
“I’m astounded that this issue is being trotted out again. Based on what I saw in 2004 and 2006, it’s a scare tactic.”
Who’s that speaking? And what’s he talking about?
That’s fired US Attorney David Iglesias talking about the news leaked today that the DOJ and FBI are opening a nationwide investigation into allegations that the community organization ACORN is somehow working to undermine the November election through fraud. For more from Iglesias and his fellow fired US Attorney Bud Cummins, don’t miss TPMMuckraker’s Zack Roth’s interview post from earlier this evening.
There really needs to be intense scrutiny of the FBI investigation of ACORN in the traditional media. If there’s anything there other than everyday mistakes and the occasional people ripping off ACORN, then we all want to know about it. Because if there’s not anything worth investigating then the FBI itself is now being used as an arm of the Republican Party. (I know, who would think the Bush Justice Department would do such a thing?)
As Iglesias notes in his interview with TPM, the leaking of the investigation itself is highly suspicious. It’s hard enough to win elections without having to win by margins larger than Republican suppression efforts.
Sutherland Issues Letter on Glacier Lease
Yesterday, Commissioner of Public Lands, Doug Sutherland, wrote a letter to State Rep. Sharon Nelson (D-34, Vashon) saying he had not yet approved a controversial lease for mining company Glacier Norhtwest.
Nelson, an opponent of strip mining on Maury Island, sent a letter to Sutherland on Monday asking him to address what she had heard from concerned constituents: Mining company Glacier Northwest had reportedly told King County’s Dept. of Development and Environmental Services that Sutherland was going to issue a required aquatics lease to Glacier (right after the election) that would allow the company to proceed with its controversial mining expansion.
Republican Sutherland is up for reelection in a tight race against outspoken environmentalist, Peter Goldmark. Goldmark has made an issue out of Sutherland donors like Glacier Northwest who, Goldmark says, get political favors from Sutherland.
In his October 16 letter to Rep. Nelson, Sutherland repeated, in much stronger terms, the denial I reported here on Monday issued by Fran McNair, Sutherland’s Aquatic Lands Steward.
Sutherland writes: “As the proprietary manager of state owned aquatic lands, DNR [the Department of Natural Resources] is the decision making authority, not a lease applicant such as Glacier. Therefore any assurances that this prospective lessee may have directly or indirectly indicated concerning their final approval of a pending application should be considered purely speculative and without any merit.”
Open thread
Say it ain’t so Joe Sam
So it turns out, “Joe the Plumber” isn’t actually a licensed plumber. And… um… his name’s not “Joe.” Huh. Go figure.
Election Scorecard
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 368 electoral votes | Mean of 170 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. If the election had been held yesterday, Obama would have won with near certainty.
Today there were seven new polls in six states released. As a result, Obama holds his massive lead, but McCain gains back one electoral vote. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 368 to McCain’s 170 electoral votes. Obama, in an election held now, would have a near-100.0% probability of winning.
More details from this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Podcasting Liberally
After a brief hiatus, the Podcast is back—and with a special guest.
Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels starts the conicnversation on Seattle “inside baseball ” politics Sound Transit’s Prop. 1 ballot measure and mass transportation. The conversation then turns to the piles and piles of money dumped (sometimes illegally) into in the Washington state gubernatorial race. Will Rossi and surrogates succeeded in unifying the haters? And why hasn’t the BIAW been enjoined from spending more money on the race? Goldy laments the lack of editorial outrage from the traditional media over flagrant violations of election financing laws. The panel chit-chats about other races, like the presidential race and the Burner–Reichert race. Goldy, in response to the PI’s endorsement of Reichert, offers the proposition that the Seattle media establishment suffers from mediocrity. With two journalists on the panel, the comment triggers something of a group therapy session….
Goldy was joined by Chairman of the Sound Transit Board of Directors and Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Publisher of the Group News Blog, Jesse Wendel, HorsesAss reporter Josh Feit , and Seattle blogging pioneer N in Seattle.
The show is 65:16, and is available here as an MP3:
[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_oct_14_2008.mp3][Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]
Why does Rossi hate the initiative process?
Whenever we pass a ballot measure lowering taxes or limiting government in some way, or reject a measure proposing the reverse, the wise old sages of our media and political establishment always caution that we must follow “the will of the people.” Yet I have noticed a curious pattern to Dino Rossi, who criticizes Gov. Gregoire for raising the gas tax, advocates for reducing the minimum wage and eliminating the estate tax, and has voted to defund initiatives raising teacher pay and reducing class size… all actions contrary to the will of the people as expressed at the polls.
I-920: Rejected, 38-62
This measure would repeal Washington’s state laws imposing tax, currently dedicated for the education legacy trust fund, on transfers of estates of persons dying on or after the effective date of this measure.I-912: Rejected, 45-55
Initiative Measure No. 912 concerns motor vehicle fuel taxes. This measure would repeal motor vehicle fuel tax increases of 3 cents in 2005 and 2006, 2 cents in 2007, and 1.5 cents per gallon in 2008, enacted in 2005 for transportation purposes. Should this measure be enacted into law?I-728: Approved, 72-28
Shall school districts reduce class sizes, extend learning programs, expand teacher training, and construct facilities, funded by lottery proceeds, existing property taxes, and budget reserves?I-732: Approved, 63-37
Shall public school teachers, other school district employees, and certain employees of community and technical colleges receive annual cost-of-living salary adjustments, to begin in 2001-2002?I-688: Approved, 66-34
Shall the state minimum wage be increased from $4.90 to $5.70 in 1999 and to $6.50 in 2000, and afterwards be annually adjusted for inflation?
And Rossi’s disregard for the will of the people doesn’t end there, with the candidate promising to build an Alaska Way tunnel that Seattle voters rejected by 70-30 margin, while constantly attacking Gov. Gregoire for failing to build a new Sonics arena that 74% of voters rejected at the polls. And that’s just off the top of my head.
Huh. If that’s the way Rossi honors the will of the people while running for office, imagine how much respect he’ll show us once he’s in it.
Burner Outpaces Reichert on Local Donations
US Rep. Dave Reichert’s spin on Democratic challenger Darcy Burner is that her campaign fund is bolstered by out-of-staters—those carpetbagging netroots folks.
And the Seattle Times ran with that angle earlier this month:
The outpouring reveals an aspect of Burner’s rematch against U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert that is under the radar for many 8th Congressional District voters: While her campaign talks up her blue-collar roots and family life, online activists from all over the country see her as one of their own.
Her immense popularity among the netroots — an informal, progressive group of bloggers — has boosted her campaign and helped her raise more than $2.3 million, topping Reichert, the Republican incumbent.
But Burner’s critics, including the Reichert campaign, are using those ties against her. They argue that she can’t represent the interests of the 8th District when some of her biggest supporters are liberal bloggers who never have set foot in Seattle’s eastern suburbs.
“Darcy Burner is pretty open about the fact that she wants to go to Congress to represent the netroots,” said Reichert’s campaign manager, Mike Shields. “That is her constituency, and that is who she’s raised money from, and so that’s who she’ll do the bidding of.”
The Seattle Times‘ sensationalized spin about carpetbagging left out some important context that shows Burner isn’t a puppet of funders from out of state. If you compare Burner’s and Reichert’s donations, you see that Burner has more in-district donors and more in-state donors than Reichert.
According to analysis of Federal Elections Commission records of individual donors at $200 or above (the level at which biographical info is available) done by Dan Kirkdorffer, a Burner supporter from the 8th District, Burner has 581 in-district donors compared to Reichert’s 446 in-district donors. Burner has 1,311 in-state donors compared to Reichert’s 922 in-state donors.
Burner’s dollar totals from in the district and in the state are also higher than Reichert’s: $685,000 to $635,000 in-district and $1.3 million to $1.1 million in-state, respectively.
Reichert’s rejoinder could be that a higher percentage of his donations come from in the state and in the district. And that’s true. But Burner has more local donors total, which is a far more significant statistic when making claims about hometown support. For example, she has 42 percent more in-state donors, and 30 percent more in-district donors, than Reichert.
According to Act Blue, the netroots fundraising site, Burner has raised $544,837 from their online donors. She’s raised about $3.1 million overall, which means netroots donors account for only 16 percent of her money.
Certainly, Burner has a large number of Act Blue donors, over 15,000 according to Act Blue. Some of these donors are captured in the analysis of FEC reports—others are not because many Act Blue donors fall below the $200 level. While those donors would certainly bump up the number of Burner’s out-of-state contributors, they’d also bump up her in-state donor tally, increasing her lead over Reichert on that score.
Another important part of the fundraising story to consider is donations from PACs. Those donations are not figured into the in-state vs. out-of-state equation.
PACs, political committees that represent corporations and unions, made up 31 percent of Rep. Reichert’s total campaign fund according to the latest online data at the FEC (which doesn’t yet include the most recent fundraising reports.) PAC giving makes up only 13 percent of Burner’s haul.
PAC donations can certainly come from local interests, like Boeing ($10,000 to Reichert) and Microsoft ($3000 to Reichert), but here’s the FEC list of Reichert’s PAC donations. With everything from General Electric to Goldman Sachs to Lockheed Martin to Pfizer Inc., it is hardly dominated by local interests.
I have a call into Reichert’s campaign to ask them to address their claim that Burner’s financial support—which is deeper at that local level than Reichert’s—isn’t local enough.
Meanwhile, here is what Mike Shields, Reichert’s campaign manager, said on October 3, in the comments thread on the popular local conservative politics blog, Sound Politics:
There is a bigger issue at stake in this election that local SP readers should consider if they are not yet engaged in this race: if burner wins, she will prove that even a candidate with no experience, no real connection to her community, who is to the left of the local voters, can raise enough money from national activists that they can elect someone in YOUR local district. This will embolden them to futher this model nationally. Those activists may not have succeeded in winning any policy debates, but if they start overpowering local voters with money they can begin installing members who think like them who WILL win their policy debates for them. This is the movement they are openly trying to create and they will absolutely be emoldened if burner wins. She may not seem like she is conecting here, but she’s a national netroots celebrity. You can help stop them and disprove the paradigm by helping us at reichert’s campaign:www.davereichertforcongress.com.
Note: The possibility exists that this comment wasn’t actually left by the same Mike Shields who’s running Reichert’s campaign, but if that’s true, Shields has had nearly two weeks to correct the record.
Here is Kirkdorffer’s analysis. (These numbers include local Bush fundraisers for Reichert, which may artificially inflate Reichert’s local donor numbers. Also, Burner’s number of “In-District Maxed Out” Donors, 54, should be in bold, not Reichert’s lower number of 49.) :
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