|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 368 electoral votes||Mean of 170 electoral votes|
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. If the election had been held yesterday, Obama would have won with near certainty.
Today there were seven new polls in six states released. As a result, Obama holds his massive lead, but McCain gains back one electoral vote. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 368 to McCain’s 170 electoral votes. Obama, in an election held now, would have a near-100.0% probability of winning.
More details from this analysis are available at Hominid Views.