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How were the election results for you? I think Biden is going to squeak out a victory but it’s not great that it’s too close to call. In Washington, it’s good. Inslee won as expected. The legislature is secure. Not sure if that means actually progressive legislation.

In fine but not my preferred candidate news, the 10th Congressional District and Lieutenant Governor the more conservative Democrat won the race between2 Democrats. The sex ed initiative is passing easily. King County charter amendments are going for police reform.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

It has been awhile since I’ve done one of these. Leave your thoughts on the election in the comment thread!

5:07: Four years ago on election night my house lost power for a few hours. Today, a bit after 2pm, I lost power for a few hours. I hope that isn’t a bad omen!

5:24: Ahhhh…finally got to pour myself a beer!

5:31: MSNBC: “Breaking news…Polls close in Arkansas…here’s what we can tell you…It is too close to call” Not really “breaking” news as much as prematurely ejected news.

5:41: Texas is interesting, but way too early. Florida isn’t looking good, but way too early to tell.

I am having flashbacks of 2018 when my twitter feed was full of people hysterically clutching their pearls that the blue wave hadn't materialized around this time. But when all the votes were counted …

Everyone said be patient. We knew it could come down to Pa. #ComeOnMan

— digby (@digby56) November 4, 2020

6:30: The first Senate seat to flip…Hickenlooper in Colorado.

He spent 4 years golfing. And people are still voting for him. I will never understand it

— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) November 4, 2020

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 360 electoral votes	Mean of 178 electoral votes

It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….

What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.

We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.

North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.

There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

The previous analysis of the Senate races four days ago showed control of the Senate likely to go to the Democrats, with an expected 54 seats. Since then there have been many new polls released. As a result, the race has tightened slightly.

Now, the Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Democrats have a Senate majority 99,773 times and produces 227 ties. Republicans never control the Senate. That is an almost imperceptible “slide” for the Democrats from the previous analysis. But the mean number of seats has dropped by one from 54.2 to 53.2. Part of the reason is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from 1 month to 3 weeks, as there is enough polling to justify the narrower window. And doing so increases the chances of catching late trends in the race.

There were a few big changes. In Alaska, where Democrat Al Gross is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, the newest polls take the race from a tie to Sullivan in the lead with a 78% chance of winning an election today. For Georgia’s seat 1 race where Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is trying to unseat Republican Sen. David Perdue, the last 6 of 14 polls have put Ossoff in the lead. Perdue had a 65% chance of winning four days ago, but now Ossoff has the edge with an 87% chance of winning. In Iowa, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield’s once strong lead has slipped. Four days ago she had a 76 percent probability of winning. Now she has a 61% chance. The open seat in Kansas has Democrat Barbara Bollier head-to-head with Republican Roger Marshall. Boiller had a slight lead that translates to a 63% probability of winning. But the new polling has Marshell ahead with a 91% chance of winning.

The Race in Maine has tightened as well. Democrat Sara Gideon has been leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In fact, Gideon still leads in all three current polls, but one poll is nearly a tie. Gideon’s lead has slipped from 97% a few days ago to 87% probability today. In another challenge to an incumbent, Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for her Mississippi seat. The polling tightened up recently, and Hyde-Smith had a 56% chance of winning a few days ago. But a new Civiqs poll has Hyde-Smith up by +8%, boosting the Senator’s chances to a 90% probability of winning. Finally, in the South Carolina race, Democrat Jamie Harrison’s challenge of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has seen a shift in Graham’s chances of prevailing from 56% to an 88% chance.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Most of Washington voters have already voted. But if you haven’t yet, there’s still time. Drop off your ballot at one of these locations by 8:00. Or get it postmarked by tomorrow. If you are putting it in the mail, I would drop it off today if you can.

And in any case, wash your hands right now.

Samantha Bee: Now that’s what I call a fucking atrocity—family separation

Bruce W. Nelson: What about Mitch?

John Oliver: Asylum

Bruce W. Nelson: Mitch McConnell’s swamp-grown, un-organic, rather toxic garden mulch

Now This: How Texas Republicans are making it harder to vote

Biden—Harris 2020:

• SNL: The final debate (cold open)
• Amber Ruffin: The 2016 election day sketch Amber wrote assuming Hillary would win
• Trevor: Kamala Harris—Coronavirus, police reform, and unifying America
• Seth Meyers: With five days to go, Трамп and the GOP campaign against reality
• Epic Rap Battles of History: Dotard Трамп vs Joe Biden
• The Daily Show: Hannity on Hillary 2016 vs Biden 2020
• Amber Ruffin on rappers supporting The Dotard
• SNL: Political ad:

• Full Frontal: Getting through the maze of Pennsylvanian voter values
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoons Трамп & Biden hold their final rallies
• Trevor: Трамп leaves his supporters to freeze & Obama goes off
• Bruce W. Nelson: We’re at the end of the trail
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and Brett Kavanaugh telegraph their plan to steal the election
• The Protest Films: Hard landing
• Jimmy Dore: Vince Vaughn abandoned at Трамп rally!
• The Daily Show: Why are Black men more likely to support Трамп than Black women?
• Randy Rainbow: How will you vote?:

• Bruce W. Nelson: The NEW Трамп campaign rally song!!!!!!!!
• Jordan Klepper hits one more Трамп rally before the election
• Now This: How Трамп could attempt to steal the election
• Samantha Bee: The last free and fair election?
• SNL Weekend Update: Final presidential 2020 debate
• Seth Meyers: Cindy McCain on why she is supporting Joe Biden
• Desi Lydic: Are undecided voters really undecided?
• Jon Batiste: Kamala:

• Jimmy Fallon: Mayor Pete Buttigieg doesn’t want voters to get too comfortable
• Stephen: Polling expert Amy Walter on how an incumbent President’s job approval rating is a key election predictor
• Bruce W. Nelson: When he’s gone
• Trevor: What happened to Lindsey Graham
• Conan: A concerned voter weighs in on the Hunter Biden scandal
• The Daily Show: Elsa was among those stranded in the freezing cold at Трамп’s Omaha rally
• Stephen: We aren’t the only ones paranoid about election day

Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Susan Collins dodges everyone’s questions

Desi Lydic: Remembering RBG—A nation ugly cries

Amber Ruffin: The untold history of the Blue Feathers

Now This: Damon Young shows how hard it is for Black people to vote in America.

Vice News: Voter suppression—It’s the American way

The Dotard Трамп and Other Snowflakey Misogynists and Racists:

• College Humor: Every terrible thing Трамп has done as President
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп votes, fake Melania & Barrett confirmation
• The Late Show: Learn Jared Kushner’s motivation secrets for Black Americans!
• Meidas’s Touch: Sicko Трамп
• Stephen: Sarah Cooper’s viral Трамп lip sync videos act as an interpreter for the emotionally blind
• Roy Wood, Jr.: Counting down Трамп’s 100 most tremendous scandals—75-51
• The Parody Project: McEnany (A Macarena parody)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s inner monologue during the Amy Coney Barrett swearing in
• FoD’s The Best Presidency Ever: Fast food & Russian interference
• Keith Olbermann: The 50 worst Трамп atrocities:

• Samantha Bee’s best Трамп takedowns
• Really American: Trump cut social security
• Vice News: Трамп’s crime galaxy is a thing of wonder
• The Daily Show: Meet the man in charge of Трамп’s Teleprompter
• Seth Meyers: Melania Трамп tries to dispel the fake Melania conspiracy theory
• FoD’s Best Presidency Ever: Tear gassing peaceful protestors & endorsing White supremacy
• Meidas’s Touch: Трамп and Putin—The greatest love story ever told
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s COVID denial, rally disdain & meeting with Lil Wayne
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s 5 scariest films of all time for Halloween
• Americans for Decency: Donald and running—The great escape from 60 Minutes
• Roy Wood, Jr.: Counting down Трамп’s 100 most tremendous scandals—50-26
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song for Lesley Stahl (Dotard Трамп got his butt kicked)
• Trevor: A love story for the ages
• Meidas Touch: The Dotard’s deadly sins
• Keith Olbermann: The Dotard is sundowning
• blaire erskine: Nip-nude for Трамп
• Founders Sing: Conned in the U.S.A.:

• SNL: The Village People on The Dotard Using Their Music
• The Late Show: Horrified pumpkin tries to carve out Трамп’s signature
• Meidas Touch: Alumni against Трамп
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Трамп watches Cartoon Lindell get maimed
• Meidas Touch: Трамп is pathetic—Трамп’s 60 Minutes disaster
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS traitor Miles Taylor!!
• The Daily Show: Трамп’s 100 most tremendous scandals—The definitive list
• Bruce Springsteen: We are lost
• Keith Olbermann: The 50 worst persons in Трамп World

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Really American: Everyone hates Lindsey

Stephen: The GOP’s voter suppression efforts are inherently evil.

Robert Reich: The stock market IS NOT The Economy!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Superspreadin’ the ТрампPlague:

• Stephen: Dr. Sanjay Gupta says the coronavirus vaccine shots may be needed yearly
• Seth Meyers: Трамп administration gives up on controlling the coronavirus pandemic
• Mark Fiore: The Closer
• Stephen: Трамп won’t let covid stop his campaign, keeps Mike Pence on the trail amid new staff outbreak
• Now This: Kushner brags about The Dotard taking the country “back from the doctors”
• Keith Olbermann: Pence should’ve been arrested as health risk; it’s now Трамп-45/Covid-19
• Stephen: Трамп holds superspreader rallies and whines about covid while Joe Biden offers a competing vision
• Lauren Mayer: Superspreader:

• James Corden: The Трампs may not know what 6 feet is
• Stephen: As Трамп and Biden push opposing covid strategies, this election may determine the pandemic’s path
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s failed coronavirus response
• Americans for Decency: The masque of the red death
• FoD’s Best Presidency Ever: Downplaying COVID-19 & drinking bleach
• Jimmy Kimmel: Good news! Трамп ended COVID-19 pandemic!
• The Late Show: The White House gives up and the coronavirus wins big
• Stephen: Ending the coronavirus pandemic is NOT one of Трамп’s accomplishments

Bruce W. Nelson: Poor li’l Lindsey

Late Show: Jenny Hagel on Pope Francis and same-sex civil unions

Vox: Why LGBTQ rights hinge on the definition of “sex”

Trevor: Amy Coney Barrett is vonfirmed & Democrats vow revenge

Meidas Touch: Traffic stop

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes	Mean of 165 electoral votes

The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.

In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
[Read more…]

Good morning. Please vote if you haven’t yet. A ton of people in Washington have voted. But if that’s not you, there’s still time. Drop off your ballot by 8:00 on Tuesday or have it postmarked by then. Vote by mail is being screwed over in some states, but in Washington, your ballot should be fine in the mail. You might want to put it in the mail on Monday to be safe.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

The overall numbers haven’t changed much since my previous analysis last Saturday. The “score” still remains 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats, if the election had been held today.

This analysis is based on a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections. The results were that Democrats had a Senate majority 99,878 times and there were 122 ties. Republicans controled the Senate 0 times. If the election was today and Biden won, Democrats would control the Senate with a >99.99% probability. If Biden loses, the Democrat’s chances drop to 99.88%

Even if the overall numbers have changes, there are some interesting results from individual states. I’ll compare movement over the past 5 days.

• Alaska—One new PPP poll (for a total of 4) favors Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. His chances bump up from a 52% probability to a 65% probability of defeating Democrat Al Gross
• Georgia seat 1—We have six new polls and lose four old polls for a total of 17 polls. The result is that the race changes from a 60% probability of Republican Sen. David Perdue winning to a 61% probability of Democrat Jon Ossoff winning
• Iowa—The race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield trying to unseat Republican Sen. Joni Ernst sees two new polls and two old polls drop out. The net result, with 12 polls, is that Greenfield goes from a 76% to a 87% probability of winning right now
• Kansas—This is one of the big surprises for 2020 where Democrat Barbara Bollier may well defeat Republican Roger Marshall for this open seat. One poll aged out, leaving three poll that moves Bollier from a 63% to an 81% probability of winning. One caveat…the newest of the three current poll has Marshall in the lead.
• Maine—The race with Democrat Sara Gideon trying to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins has generally favored Gideon. With two new polls and one old poll dropping out, the four current polls all have Gideon in the lead, but her chances drop from 97% to 88%. The primarily reason is a new SurveyUSA poll that has Gideon leading by a mere 0.4%!
• Mississippi—This race has Democrat Mike Espy trying to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Five days ago, the only poll was from last August and had Hyde-Smith up by +1. A new Civiqs poll has her up by +8, upping her chances from 56% to 90%.
• Montana—This contest between Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Sen. Steve Daines is another surprisingly close race. Keep an eye on it. We have two new polls weighing in for a total of eight polls. Four polls have Daines leading, three polls have Bullock leading (by +1), and there is one tie. Daines chances drop from 80% to 71% of winning an election held now.
• South Carolina—This is the race everyone is watching to see if Democrat Jamie Harrison will dethrone Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham was barely hanging on with a 57% probability of winning, but with three new polls added in and two dropping out (for a total of 6 polls), Graham’s chances have risen to 87% probability. Three of the polls favor Graham, two favor favor Harrison and there is one tie.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.

The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.

This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:

Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):

Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Months into mask requirements, I don’t understand the opposition. It’s slightly annoying, but emphasis on slightly. Some of them are a bit too tight, but you should have found some good ones by now. They aren’t 100% effective, but they are better than not wearing one. They help the person wearing the mask, and everyone they come in contact with.

But fucking Idaho, man. They’re loosening mask requirements. And since they share a border with Washington, their garage can stink up our state. Wear a mask, and require it if you’re a state or local official.

Anyway, in addition to putting on a fucking mask if you’re out, please wash your goddam hands right now.

Good morning, Washingtonians. Have you voted yet? Remember, if you have until November 3 to have your ballot postmarked or dropped off. I have not confirmed it, and I wish I could remember who tweeted it, but hopefully this map is helpful. Otherwise, check your county elections office.

And please wash your hands right now.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.

How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.

Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.

In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.

The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.