Most of Washington voters have already voted. But if you haven’t yet, there’s still time. Drop off your ballot at one of these locations by 8:00. Or get it postmarked by tomorrow. If you are putting it in the mail, I would drop it off today if you can.
And in any case, wash your hands right now.
Samantha Bee: Now that’s what I call a fucking atrocity—family separation
Bruce W. Nelson: What about Mitch?
John Oliver: Asylum
Bruce W. Nelson: Mitch McConnell’s swamp-grown, un-organic, rather toxic garden mulch
Now This: How Texas Republicans are making it harder to vote
Biden—Harris 2020:
Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Susan Collins dodges everyone’s questions
Desi Lydic: Remembering RBG—A nation ugly cries
Amber Ruffin: The untold history of the Blue Feathers
Now This: Damon Young shows how hard it is for Black people to vote in America.
Vice News: Voter suppression—It’s the American way
The Dotard Трамп and Other Snowflakey Misogynists and Racists:
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Really American: Everyone hates Lindsey
Stephen: The GOP’s voter suppression efforts are inherently evil.
Robert Reich: The stock market IS NOT The Economy!
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Superspreadin’ the ТрампPlague:
Bruce W. Nelson: Poor li’l Lindsey
Late Show: Jenny Hagel on Pope Francis and same-sex civil unions
Vox: Why LGBTQ rights hinge on the definition of “sex”
Trevor: Amy Coney Barrett is vonfirmed & Democrats vow revenge
Meidas Touch: Traffic stop
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
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The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.
In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
[Read more…]
Good morning. Please vote if you haven’t yet. A ton of people in Washington have voted. But if that’s not you, there’s still time. Drop off your ballot by 8:00 on Tuesday or have it postmarked by then. Vote by mail is being screwed over in some states, but in Washington, your ballot should be fine in the mail. You might want to put it in the mail on Monday to be safe.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
The overall numbers haven’t changed much since my previous analysis last Saturday. The “score” still remains 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats, if the election had been held today.
This analysis is based on a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections. The results were that Democrats had a Senate majority 99,878 times and there were 122 ties. Republicans controled the Senate 0 times. If the election was today and Biden won, Democrats would control the Senate with a >99.99% probability. If Biden loses, the Democrat’s chances drop to 99.88%
Even if the overall numbers have changes, there are some interesting results from individual states. I’ll compare movement over the past 5 days.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 45 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 51 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 53 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
| Weak Republican | 3 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| Leans Republican | 2 | 2 | 44 | |
| Strong Republican | 4 | 42 | ||
| Safe Republican | 38 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 1 | 1030 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| AK | 4 | 2214 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 47.6 | 52.4 | |
| AZ | 24 | 15073 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 2 | 1107 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CO | 8 | 5741 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| DE | 1 | 712 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| GA | 15 | 11127 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| GA | 5 | 3619 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| ID | 1& | 487 | 34.1 | 65.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| IL | 1& | 418 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 97.3 | 2.7 | |
| IA | 12 | 7943 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 75.5 | 24.5 | |
| KS | 4 | 4774 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 62.7 | 37.3 | |
| KY | 2 | 1157 | 44.8 | 55.2 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| ME | 3 | 1597 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 97.2 | 2.8 | |
| MA | 1&
| 817 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
98.8 |
1.2 |
| |
| MI | 24 | 19375 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MN | 4 | 3038 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| MS | 1& | 486 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 43.7 | 56.3 | |
| MT | 6 | 3893 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 20.1 | 79.9 | |
| NE | 1 | 395 | 27.3 | 72.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NH | 6 | 4551 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NJ | 1 | 664 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NM | 1 | 815 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 98.4 | 1.6 | |
| NC | 23 | 16814 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| OK | 1 | 5102 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 1 | 849 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| RI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| SC | 5 | 3960 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.2 | 56.8 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| TN | 1 | 551 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| TX | 9 | 10209 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VA | 3 | 2626 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WV | 1 | 386 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| WY | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
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The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.
The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.
This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:
Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):
Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.
The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
Months into mask requirements, I don’t understand the opposition. It’s slightly annoying, but emphasis on slightly. Some of them are a bit too tight, but you should have found some good ones by now. They aren’t 100% effective, but they are better than not wearing one. They help the person wearing the mask, and everyone they come in contact with.
But fucking Idaho, man. They’re loosening mask requirements. And since they share a border with Washington, their garage can stink up our state. Wear a mask, and require it if you’re a state or local official.
Anyway, in addition to putting on a fucking mask if you’re out, please wash your goddam hands right now.
Good morning, Washingtonians. Have you voted yet? Remember, if you have until November 3 to have your ballot postmarked or dropped off. I have not confirmed it, and I wish I could remember who tweeted it, but hopefully this map is helpful. Otherwise, check your county elections office.
And please wash your hands right now.
My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.
How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.
Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.
In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.
The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 45 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 51 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 53 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
| Weak Republican | 3 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| Leans Republican | 2 | 2 | 44 | |
| Strong Republican | 4 | 42 | ||
| Safe Republican | 38 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 1 | 1030 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| AK | 4 | 2214 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 47.6 | 52.4 | |
| AZ | 24 | 15073 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 2 | 1107 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CO | 8 | 5741 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| DE | 1 | 712 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| GA | 15 | 11127 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| GA | 5 | 3619 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| ID | 1& | 487 | 34.1 | 65.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| IL | 1& | 418 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 97.3 | 2.7 | |
| IA | 12 | 7943 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 75.5 | 24.5 | |
| KS | 4 | 4774 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 62.7 | 37.3 | |
| KY | 2 | 1157 | 44.8 | 55.2 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| ME | 3 | 1597 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 97.2 | 2.8 | |
| MA | 1&
| 817 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
98.8 |
1.2 |
| |
| MI | 24 | 19375 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MN | 4 | 3038 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| MS | 1& | 486 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 43.7 | 56.3 | |
| MT | 6 | 3893 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 20.1 | 79.9 | |
| NE | 1 | 395 | 27.3 | 72.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NH | 6 | 4551 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NJ | 1 | 664 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NM | 1 | 815 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 98.4 | 1.6 | |
| NC | 23 | 16814 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| OK | 1 | 5102 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 1 | 849 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| RI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| SC | 5 | 3960 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.2 | 56.8 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| TN | 1 | 551 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| TX | 9 | 10209 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VA | 3 | 2626 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WV | 1 | 386 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| WY | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
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I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).
The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:
Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):
Bill Maher: American ninja warrior—Democracy edition
True Colors: How Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up in politics
Biden—Harris 2020:
Amber Ruffin: The one constant in these “uncertain times”
Robert Reich: What happened to the Voting Rights Act?
Francesca Fiorentini: Socialism—Republicans keep being forced to love it
The Dotard Трамп and Other High Level Grifters and Deplorables:
Mainers for Accountable Leadership: Susan Collins’ final sct
Seth Meyers: Back in my day….
Vox: Why American public transit is so bad
Superspreading ТрампPlague:
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Trevor: Sen. Elizabeth Warren on fighting Republicans’ threats to democracy
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Did you catch the big debate last night? I did. It made me glad that I already voted for Marko Liias. Oh, was there another debate?
Seriously, the Lieutenant Governor debate last night was gloriously dull. It wasn’t too much of a contrast between the bearded monotone Democrats. Heck tried to talk about being an outsider (DC and the private sector) while also touting his time in the legislature and as Booth Gardner’s Chief of Staff. Liias was more focused on his legislative record. Either would be good in the job.
The moderators were less impressive. Maybe there aren’t an hour of questions for the position. Still the first 2 questions were about Republican voters and how will you work with Republicans in the legislature. There was no equivalent question about Democratic voters, despite the fact that we are a lot more of the state.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now.
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With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.
My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.
Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.
Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.
Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:
I hope that the new approach to homeless outreach in Seattle, if it comes to anything, is an improvement. I wish there was more of a solid direction from the mayor’s office. But maybe the relationship is so toxic that it’s better to have surrogates.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Great job, King County. We’re smashing all sorts of records for early voting. I don’t know if this presages higher turnout or if it will taper off. Maybe people are worried about the Post Office so they’re dropping their ballots in the boxes rather than the mail?
No matter what, please seal your ballot with a sponge and wash your hands.
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