HorsesAss.Org

There were hints, and clues, and even outright claims, but now it’s official.

I mean, if you can believe hack journalist David “Goldy” Goldstein…Darcy Burner is running for Congress in Washington’s 1st congressional district.

For me that’s great news—I live in the 1st CD. Looking at the redistricting proposals, chances are excellent that Darcy Burner will be my next representative.

Darcy joins a somewhat crowded field of Democrats for the 1st CD, including State Rep. Roger Goodman, Former state Rep. Laura Ruderman, and State Rep. Marko Liias. I would be happy to be represented by any of these folks. (Okay…maybe not so much Ruderman, who seems to be great at fundraising, but what else? I simply don’t know.) Darcy, just by entering the race, becomes the front-runner.

This isn’t just my opinion. Remember the poll that Publicola got wind of (and that I mentioned here) a couple days ago? It shows Burner unquestionably in the lead.

If the redistricted 1st CD bears any resemblance to its old self, a Democratic candidate coming out of the primary will almost certainly win the general. Rep. Jay Inslee (who is vacating the seat to run for Governor) has held the district since 1999. The district has voted increasingly Democratic in recent presidential elections: Al Gore won by 53%, John Kerry won by 56%, and Barack Obama won by 62%.

On top of that, the Republicans have no candidates of any note running. Well…James Watkins, the guy who challenged Inslee in 2008, is running again.

I met Darcy during her first congressional run against Rep. Dave Reichert. I have interacted with her, perhaps, a dozen times since then, including doing one interview. My excitement at today’s announcement is genuine…I really want her to represent me! My reasons haven’t changed much from what I wrote back in 2006:

It was clear to me from that first meeting that Ms. Burner was an extraordinary individual—she struck me as smart, well-informed, articulate, disciplined, confident, and full of energy. I had no idea whether these attributes could translate into success in campaigning and politics, but I thought that Darcy exhibited many of the good attributes that I wanted in a political leader, and she didn’t seem afflicted with the negative attributes found in so many political leaders.

I couldn’t vote for Darcy in 2006 or 2008—my house is located a bit north of the 8th CD in the 1st CD. For the 2012 election cycle, I am most pleased to welcome Darcy to the 1st!

(You can contribute to Darcy Burner’s campaign here.)

Please join us this evening for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday, 7:00pm at the Hub Restaurant. Also next Monday, the Olympia chapter of Drinking Liberally, the Yakima chapter, and the South Bellevue chapter meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

This is a quick follow-up to my previous post about the new Washington Poll. The poll surveyed 938 registered voters from 10th Oct to 30th Oct.

In the Washington Governor’s race, the poll found Rep. Jay Inslee behind AG Rob McKenna by 38.4% to 43.9% with 17.7% undecided. The question is, how do these numbers translate into the probability that McKenna would beat Inslee if the election had been held in October. As is my habit, I employ Monte Carlo methods, simulating a million elections of 938 voters randomly drawing votes at the observed percentages.

The results give Inslee 92,405 “elections” and McKenna 903,409 “elections.” Thus, McKenna would have about a 91% probability of winning an election held in October. Here’s the picture:

By a traditional statistical assessment, McKenna’s lead is not “significant,” in that he doesn’t break the 95% threshold. Still…McKenna would be the likely winner. He was also leading Inslee by 34% to 38% in a late September SurveyUSA poll (and one other partisan poll as well.)

As Eli Sanders points out, there is a bright side for Inslee. He has cut into McKenna’s support in the Puget Sound region:

While September’s KING 5/Survey USA poll showed Inslee running dead even with McKenna in the Puget Sound region (a terrible sign for Inslee’s chances of pulling out a statewide victory), yesterday’s Washington Poll showed Inslee up by five points among Puget Sound voters.

I would add that in the poll before that by SurveyUSA poll, Inslee led McKenna. McKenna still had 44%, but Inslee had 47%. The difference is that only 9% were undecided. (And Inslee led by 7% points in “metro Seattle.”)

The evidence is too weak for any certainty, but taken together, the trend looks like Inslee gains over McKenna (particularly in the Puget sound region) when undecided voters make up their minds.

Herman Cain makes more headlines this week.

Although he has a juicy campaign finance scandal brewing, and a bizarre gaffe about the Palestinian people, what people are really intrigued by is the revelations that Herman was, in the 1990s, accused of sexual harassment by two employees of the National Restaurant Association while Cain was the organization’s CEO.

The story has some potential…comedy potential, as in, “Herman, dude, hasn’t anyone ever told you that nein, nein, nein means NEIN?!?”

Other than that, this story stinks.

First, this is not going to help and might, quite possibly, hurt Cain’s chances at taking the nomination. And I don’t want anything to hurt Cain’s chances of being the Republican nominee for 2012. Seriously…if Obama has to go up against Romney or Cain, I’d much rather he go up against Cain. Besides the fact that Cain is the weaker of the two candidates, I like the gut-knotting turmoil it causes amongst the bigoted faction of Republicans.

It also sucks for a more important reason: because it feeds ugly bigotry, by reinforcing a negative stereotype of black men. “They’re stealing our women!”

And that is simply ugly.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not taking a stand on whether or not Cain sexually harassed those women. I’m not offering any excuses for sexual harassment, or making excuses for Cain if it turns out he did engage in that behavior. But the legal settlement prevents the women from talking about their complaint or the monetary settlement, so that there will always remain some uncertainty about what really happened. And the bigots will use that uncertainty to feed their ugly habit. Yuck.

As an aside, even Obama isn’t immune from this stereotype.

Remember last year when Newt Gingrich made headlines about Dinesh D’Souza “stunning insight” into Obama?

…the “most profound insight I have read in the last six years about Barack Obama.”

“What if [Obama] is so outside our comprehension, that only if you understand Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior, can you begin to piece together [his actions]?” Gingrich asks. “That is the most accurate, predictive model for his behavior.”

“This is a person who is fundamentally out of touch with how the world works, who happened to have played a wonderful con, as a result of which he is now president,” Gingrich tells us.

What was D’Souza “profound insight” in this article that so inspired Gingrich? The article concludes:

But instead of readying us for the challenge, our President is trapped in his father’s time machine. Incredibly, the U.S. is being ruled according to the dreams of a Luo tribesman of the 1950s. This philandering, inebriated African socialist, who raged against the world for denying him the realization of his anticolonial ambitions, is now setting the nation’s agenda through the reincarnation of his dreams in his son. The son makes it happen, but he candidly admits he is only living out his father’s dream. The invisible father provides the inspiration, and the son dutifully gets the job done.

Ahh, yes…if Obama doesn’t fit the bigot’s stereotype directly, lash him to that post by his genes.

As for Cain, at least the sexual harassment issue will divert people from some other, probably more serious, “issues” of the Cain campaign.

If you’re offended by swearing, you may want to not read the rest of this piece. Also, you’re reading a blog called Horse’s Ass, so there’s that. Basically, what I’m saying is my parents might not want to read the rest of this piece.

What the fuck, Seattle Weekly? Look, I know since McGinn said the city wasn’t going to advertise in the Weekly as long as their parent company didn’t ID their adult service ads, the Weekly has been out to get McGinn. And it isn’t like they were super friendly before that. But fuck me if this isn’t the goddamn stupidest piece of shit public records request I’ve ever seen.

I mean yes, there are a few words in that list that are rightly off limits* and it would be a legitimate story if McGinn or his staff used them. But basically, any elected official or their staff who want to say “crap” is fine by me. Hell, I sort of expect a few fucks and shits.

In fact, I’m a little disappointed with McGinn’s team. Only 14 uses of swear words in a year and a half? That’s like a slow motherfucking thread here. Jesus Christ on the fucking cross, step up your game, guys.

And what the fuck kind of list is that any way? I’ve never made a public records request, but wouldn’t “fucking moron” “fucking idiot” and “fucking buffoon” all be covered under “fucking”? It seems like they’re trying to pad their swear count, and yet they leave a lot off.**

[Read more…]

– I’ve been reminded about how fitting the location is for them. Before Capitol Lake, that particular place was home to Little Hollywood, Olympia’s depression era shacktown. It was probably the most visible evidence of the Great Depression in town.

– Occupy Wish List

– I assume you’ve already bought your Halloween candy, but holy cow.

– Shorter Pudge: Congress forced me to keep my kids up late with its nefarious daylight savings time. (And From Carl, sunset is before 6:00. How early do Pudge’s kids need to be home?)

– Whoever is in charge of making signs for the NY Police protest needs to, um, try harder.

– It’s really annoying that jaywalking is ticketed. Also, apparently, not where the problem lies.

– If we’re not actually painting the map red, we can’t be an empire.

– Endemic.

The Washington Poll has released a new poll of Washington state voters on issues, initiatives in this election, as well as candidates in next year’s election.

The poll surveyed 938 registered voters from Oct 10th through Oct 30th, and has a margin of error of 3.2%
Here is the summary:

• The economy and recession is the number one issue (26%) in how voters will be making voting decisions. Republicans better hope to hell the economy makes a very slow recovery. (And they are doing their damnedest to sabotage any recovery attempts.)
• Initiative I-1183 is the Costco initiative to privatize state liquor stores (and related things). The poll found 50% would vote yes, and 43% would vote no, with 7% undecided.
• Initiative I-1125 is the Tim Eyman, Kemper Freeman-funded initiative that would severely restrict tolling and, essentially, shut down light rail to the east side (Bellevue and Redmond). The poll found 41% would vote yes and 40% would vote no, with 19% undecided.
• If a same sex marriage law was passed in Washington and it ended up as a referendum, 55% would support the law, 38% would vote to overturn the law, and 7% aren’t sure.
• By 64% to 24%, Washington voters approve of eliminating “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” in the military.
• By 48% to 42%, Washington voters approve of legalizing and regulating marijuana.
• For the 2012 gubernatorial race, 45% would vote for Washington AG Rob McKenna (R) and 38% would vote for Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01), with 18% still undecided.
• For the 2012 presidential race, 54% would vote for President Barack Obama and 41% would vote for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, with 5% undecided.
• In another 2012 presidential race match-up, 50% would vote for Obama and 41% for former governor Mitt Romney, with 9% undecided.
• Voters tend to disapprove of the 2010 health care reform law by 47% to 37%.
• Only 24% of Washington voters want to fix the projected budget deficit by spending cuts alone. By contrast, 71% want at least some revenue increases.
• Washingtonians trust “Obama and Democrats” (41%) more than Republicans (37%) to “make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions.”

Here is what I take away from this poll:

• Get ready to pay a lot more for your liquor. Seriously, the proponents of I-1183 make claims that cannot be simultaneously sustained by the laws of physics. They suggest Washington will earn additional revenue, but liquor sales will not increase, AND, there is an assumption that Costco and friends will be earning profits (or why bother?). The math can only work out to increased prices (but perhaps with better selection).
• The big drama of the 2011 election is whether or not Tim “Biggest Lie of my Life” Eyman, and his rich friend will succeed in further paralyzing the maintenance and future development of Washington’s transportation infrastructure. Maybe Or maybe Washington voters will come to their freaking senses!
• HELLOOOOOOOO Gov. McKenna! Fortunately, that race is a long ways away!
• Hardly a day goes by without another absurd breaking news piece from the Republican primary asylum. Washington state voters are “on to” it—they see through the farce that is the current field of Republican presidential contenders.
• Same-sex marriage is on the horizon in Washington
• The legislature and Governor will ignore the will of the voters and focus on an “all cuts” budget. (Yes…I am being cynical here.)

More poll results will be released soon.

Last week’s contest was won by Brian. It was the location of the Occupy protest in Melbourne, Australia. Here’s their homepage.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere in the world, good luck!

Exodus 25:15
Don’t ever remove the poles from the rings.

Discuss.

White House: West Wing Week.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Steve Jobs ripped FAUX News a new one.

Susie’s presidential cat bowl.

Greenman: Climate denial crock of the week.

Pap: G.O.P. continues its Class Genocide.

Jon on the Koch brother’s accidental science.

America Occupied by Americans:

• Alyona and Anna: Has OWS reached a turning point?
• Olbermann: Sgt. Shamar Thomas calls on veterans to support OWS.
• Meet the 0.01%: The war profiteers.
• Sam Seder: Marine veteran Scott Olsen seriously injured in Occupy Oakland
• Thom: Injured vet Scott Olson’s roommate speaks out.
• The shooting of Scott Olsen (via Slog):
• Thom: Witness to night of terror in Oakland.
• Jon on Occupy Oakland (via Gawasylker).
• Thom: Is the Tea Party joining OWS?
• Olbermann and Sam Seder: “ACORN is coming, ACORN is coming”.
• Maddow: I’M BEING ARRESTED! There’s An App For That!
• Stephen on the Occupy Wall Street fad.
• Jimmy Fallon And Brian Williams make Occupy Wall Street sexy video:
• Alyona: Occupy the news room.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: Mitch McConnell on state bailouts.

ONN week in review.

Bill-O the Clown retakes the crown as Worst Person in the World.

Young Turks: Global warming confirmed by Koch-funded scientist.

Comedian Orlando Jones jokes his way to Worst Person in the World.

Thom: The Patriot Act at 10 years.

Mark Fiore: Tough enough.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

• Ann Telnaes: Anothr frightening presidential prospect.
• Stephen does Jon Huntsman (via Political Wire).
• Pat Robertson: Republican candidates are too extreme(!!!!!) (via Political Wire).
• Aloyna’s Tool Time: Rock Perry regrets debating.
• Cenk: Rick Perry’s “new” plan.
• Ann Telnaes: Rick Perry—lousy shot.
• Sam Seder: This song will certainly get Herman elected.
• Young Turks: Herman Cain’s campaign disaster.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Herman Cain now foreign policy ‘expert’
• The weird Cain smoking ad (via Political Wire).
• Stephen on Cain’s smoking ad (via TalkingPointsMemo):

• Herman Cain is running for president of crazy campaign ads
• Ed and Pap: The GOP Crazy Train derails.
• Sam Seder: Herman Cain’s yellow campaign ad: “So bad it’s good?” Or worse.
• Huntsman’s parody (featuring his daughters) (via Daily Beast).
• Bad Lip Reading Herman Cain:
• Rock Cookie Bottom: Everybody hates Mitt Romney:

Sen. Maria Cantwell: Preserving workers’ rights.

Young Turks: No handguns for Obama voters….

Alyona’s Tool Time: Gov. Walker supports guns, not cameras.

Thom: Have Dems not learned their lesson yet?

San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee: 2 Legit 2 Quit (via Political Wire).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Publicola has a tip about a robopoll concerning the 2012 election for the seat currently held by Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-8):

Two-time Reichert challenger, onetime Microsoft exec, and now lefty leader at ProgressiveCongress.org, Darcy Burner, is looking at getting in.

I hope so. Darcy is smart and energetic.

Oh…and she’s right on the issues.

Reichert? Yeah…not so much.

I’m not saying he’s brain damaged, or anything silly like that. Plainly put, Reichert is a third-tier Congressman who hasn’t show much of anything resembling initiative or influence.

And he is wrong on the issues. Sure, he occasionally casts pro-environment votes…that’s nice. As it turns out, he does so for self-confessed cynical reasons. That he got caught, unforced, fessing-up doesn’t speak well to his intelligence or his understanding of his job.

Washington’s congressional delegation is weakened by having among their members this listless, ineffective, and uncommunicative third-rate congressman. Let’s hope that the voters in Reichert’s 8th (possibly reshaped) district realize in 2012 that they’ve outgrown him.

I mean, they shouldn’t have to wait 20 years for Reichert to figure out how to do his job….

– Sorry, Jon Stewart, but whenever you pick up right wing propaganda, you get it wrong. Community Power Works has so far done good work.

– It takes a walloping amount of willful cluelessness to look at a mass of people holding up signs and claim that they have no message.

– What?

– Whaaaaaat?

– Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

– Transit Riders Union survey of Metro bus riders (and how you can help with it).

– Ordinary Muslim Man (h/t)

– the only high-class drink in history that involves Red Bull

Seriously, this has been online for a week:

Lynne Varner:[You might want to put a space here — Carl]Bruce: This.[Instead of a period here, you might want to put another space — Carl, again]story has reignited a local debate over the politics of the Pledge of Allegiance.

I agree with Lynne’s side here but what the fuck?

Also, I’m glad they’ve given up the pretense that this is a regular feature “Civil disagreements, with Lynne Varner and Bruce Ramsey of the Seattle Times editorial board, is an occasional feature of the Ed Cetera blog.” More honest, good job.

The budget proposals are very, very ugly:

The governor identified $4 billion in optional cuts, in which she choose $2 billion in preferred cuts. The following proposals are likely to end up in her November budget proposal:

• Eliminate the Basic Health Plan, ending subsidized health care to 35,000 low-income individuals.
• Cut off medical services to 21,000 people enrolled in the state’s Disability Lifeline and ADATSA (Alcoholism and Drug Abuse Treatment Support Act) programs.
• Trim 15 percent from the support the state provides to colleges and universities.Reduce levy equalization, which helps property poor districts, by 50 percent.
• Cut the length of supervision for all offenders, based on severity of offense. Sex offenders will be supervised for 24 months, and all other offenders, for 12 months.

“This is what our choices look like even after we let go of thousands of state workers and cut money to our public schools, our colleges and universities, our prisons, and shredded our safety net for the old, sick, and poor,” Gregoire said.

This is a budget that hurts everyone, but it really hits the most vulnerable of our citizens. Crime and violence will be higher than it should be for all of us. These cuts can be quantified by increases in bankrupcies, untreated morbidity, and dead bodies. The actuaries will tell us just how many bright high school graduates have had a college degree stripped from them—with lifetime consequences and lost dreams.

But this budget does not have to be. The Governor is, undoubtedly, hoping the legislature will grow a pair and work on the revenue end of things:

Gregoire says she will now turn her attention to finding ways to offset some of the cuts with new money. That could include fees, closing tax exemptions or a general tax increase.

We are now living through an era of historically low taxes. It’s well past the time to close many of the tax exemptions that have outlived their usefulness to us, the flesh and blood people of Washington state. And its time to raise bring in more tax revenue.

Seriously…I don’t want to live in a Washington surrounded by decaying infrastructure, high crime, medical bankruptcies, or physical suffering for those who chose pain, even death, over bankruptcy. Let’s confine that Mad Max-like dystopia shit to the movies, huh?

One of the things I most like about the Occupy movement is the fact that things get done. You’re standing around, and suddenly people need to move some supplies and the people around will help. Soup gets handed out(most days, generally). Pizzas get passed around. People from the legal group will work with people willing to get arrested or who are being arrested. In the announcements at the end of the General Assembly, someone will ask for help and usually get it even if there’s some begging. The work groups figure out what needs to be done and then either do it, or take it to the General Assembly. It’s not always a perfect process, and I’m not sure how long it can last after the excitement of the movement dulls. But for now it seems to work.

So when at the end of a recent General Assembly, someone asked for help cleaning the park, I shot my hand up, and was glad to do it. I didn’t mention that I was a blogger, so I’d say everything was off the record, and I won’t get into specifics (and I won’t say it was problem free). But I have to say, I loved sweeping up.

I loved seeing the park clean. I loved people thanking me for helping. I walked home after and noticed how much dirtier the streets were than at and around Westlake. More than going there regularly, more than participating in a General Assembly, more than giving a little money, this really felt like taking ownership of a part of Occupy Seattle. It’s certainly not as much as the people who stay at the park or who work more than me, but it was really a great feeling, especially as someone who has generally stayed more at arms length as a blogger than I might otherwise.

And so I’d encourage people, if you can, to put in an hour doing something. Go to General Assembly and wait for the announcements; someone will find something for you to do. Ask the people handing out food if they need help. Find a work group that you’d be interested in. Of course the more the better, but don’t be afraid to spend just a bit of time.