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Rapid Ride

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 9/7/12, 5:17 pm

I appreciate it when national blogs get into the weeds of Seattle or Washington State issues. And while I think the elimination of the free ride area is a net good, I’m also skeptical that Rapid Ride line D is going to be, um, rapid.

The fact that it’s still on the road means it’s only going as fast as traffic. And it’s going to have problems with signal priority and, initially, with paying before your board. So it’s not going to be as fast as it could be. But hopefully those other things can be ironed out eventually.

All that said, even a small change in the bus can make a net positive benefit. I grew up in Lake Forest Park, and I can tell you the 522 is such a better way to get from North KC than the 307 was. It’s not winding and it doesn’t take a random stop at Northgate. The 15 isn’t nearly as bad as that was, so I’m not sure it can make it up.

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But I Thought McKenna Was Only Against the Individual Mandate

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 9/7/12, 7:01 am

The Republican Governors Association has an ad attacking Jay Inslee. It’s not particularly honest, but whatever: super PAC’s gonna super PAC.* But what struck me was this:

Without naming the legislation, the ad hits Inslee for voting for “a massive tax increase” on small businesses. They are referring to the Affordable Care Act. Obviously, there are competing claims about the impact the ACA will have on small businesses.

I’m sure the press who were quick to attack Inslee for mentioning the ACA will get around to attacking the RGA about it. I mean don’t the RGA know the difference between a state and a federal issue, and whatever other nonsense the local media brought up when Inslee mentioned it?

But that’s not even what concerns me. What concerns me is that the Republican Governors Association doesn’t seem to know Rob McKenna’s position on the American Care Act. It’s understandable, since I’m not sure McKenna knows what his position on it is. But he did say, “There are a number of provisions in this law that ought to be maintained.”

So, the RGA is attacking Inslee for voting for provisions that McKenna seems to support, sometimes. If that’s the best attack they have, they don’t have much of an attack at all.

[Read more…]

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The DNC Celebration

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 11:34 pm

The DNC has just wrapped up their convention. The actual news: Both President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have accepted their Party’s nomination.

(I note that, despite some “excellent”, “well-intentioned” and “perfectly sound” advice from the our friends to the right, it wasn’t Hillary Clinton accepting the VP nomination…)

But the conventions were so much more than nomination machines. They provided Americans with a well-packaged set of arguments for why their candidates should be elected.

I listened to some of the content from both conventions, and man, what a difference! First, the Republicans sounded angrier. During the previous decade they peddled fear during their conventions. This decade they seemed to be peddling some bizarre moralistic hate. But the biggest difference is that the Republicans were selling us yesterday—a world without concerns for the environment, a world lacking equality for most non-Caucasian-hetersexual-male humans, a world lacking humanity and compassion. To me, it comes off as social and economic Darwinism—petty, selfish, greedy, primative thinking.

In contrast, the DNC was filled with thoughts of a better America—a future based on the future instead of clinging to a distant (and largely illusory) past. It was hopeful; it was optimistic; it was long term; it was about creating a better world together. It was a vision that embodies and embraces the single most distinctive trait of Homo sapiens: Our hyper-social nature that has empowered us to take collective action on huge scales to benefit whole societies. America is a shining example of this uniquely human trait.

Of course another huge difference between the two conventions was the use and abuse of Truth. Sure…some factual mistakes were made by speakers at both conventions. But there are elements at the very foundations of Romney’s argument to be President that are based on fabrications, distortions, or taking words out of context. As you can tell, I’m not buying hate, but peddling hate using lies, distortions, and out-of-context sound bites isn’t a winning strategy. Politically, you are what you eat, and too many people are smart enough to walk when being fed a constant diet of bullshit.

There were a number of inspiring speeches at the DNC. I’ll just cover the four biggies (and without suggestion that there were no other top-notch speeches at the convention):

  • I though President Obama had a solid speech, despite sounding rather horse and, maybe, a little tired. His arguments were coherent, convincing and, at times, inspiring. But, speaking as someone who sat in Mile High stadium as Sen. Obama delivered his first acceptance speech, it wasn’t his best address ever. Let’s give it a B+. It did the job quite nicely.
  • Michelle Obama gave a solid performance. I am constantly impressed by her ability to “play” First Lady, given the high power Type-A professional position she gave up to become FLOTUS. She is a most impressive human being.
  • Joe Biden was incredible. This speech was on par with the one he gave to the NAACP this year. Wingnuts have a strong tendency to underestimate Joe Biden. And, empirically, it hasn’t served them well.
  • Clearly, the top prize goes to Bill Clinton, who can serve it up like no other. Yes, my wingnut friends, Clinton definitely blows Reagan away in oratorical prowess. I challenge anyone to find a speech by Reagan that even came close to this one. Bill was on fire.

Ultimately, the DNC seemed like a celebration of the future. I liked the vision.

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Biden and Obama speak at the DNC

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 6:25 pm

Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama are the last two speakers at the DNC.

Watch the livestream here. (I’ll convert the speeches to videos later.)



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Elizabeth Warren speaks

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 4:19 pm

I talk to nurses and programmers, salespeople and firefighters—people who bust their tails every day. Not one of them—not one—stashes their money in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.

(Full text.)

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The Big Dog speaks

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 10:19 am

In Tampa, the Republican argument against the president’s re-election was actually pretty simple—pretty snappy. It went something like this: We left him a total mess. He hasn’t cleaned it up fast enough. So fire him and put us back in.

Now, there were two other attacks on the president in Tampa I think deserve an answer. First, both Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan attacked the president for allegedly robbing Medicare of $716 billion. That’s the same attack they leveled against the Congress in 2010, and they got a lot of votes on it. But it’s not true.

Here’s what really happened. There were no cuts to benefits at all. None. What the president did was to save money by taking the recommendations of a commission of professionals to cut unwarranted subsidies to providers and insurance companies that were not making people healthier and were not necessary to get the providers to provide the service.

And instead of raiding Medicare, he used the savings to close the doughnut hole in the Medicare drug program and—you all got to listen carefully to this; this is really important—and to add eight years to the life of the Medicare trust fund so it is solvent till 2024.

So President Obama and the Democrats didn’t weaken Medicare; they strengthened Medicare. Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, the biggest, coldest power play, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry because that $716 billion is exactly, to the dollar, the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget. You got to get one thing—it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did.

(Full text).

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Open Thread 9/6

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 9/6/12, 8:02 am

– Looks like there was some speechifying last night.

– Also, while Sandra Fluke is mass rad, it’s important to note the people who speak up, and nobody listens to them.

– Dear Obama, gimme your socialist health care money. Signed Paul Ryan.

– Cascade Bikes has a new Director of Policy, Planning and Government Affairs.

– I’ve been oddly fascinated with the progress of the Iron Bridge project as covered by Shallow Cogitations. Glad it looks like it’s close to completion.

– Mike Huckabee is telling a particularly stupid lie.

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Sen. Murray speaks

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/5/12, 8:06 pm

“With a Republican Congress sitting shotgun, Mitt Romney will put the middle class on the roof and take us for a long, painful ride”

(Full text.)

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Headlines

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 9/5/12, 6:18 pm

Yesterday, coming home from Drinking Liberally, I was reading the paper version of the New York Times. And I guess it was seeing all of the headlines for the Op-Ed columnists all together. I noticed that all the headlines were shit.

They’re Not What They Used to Be doesn’t tell you what “they” refers to. People over 30 will say that about just about anything if given the opportunity. Maybe say “conventions” in the headline. The Elevator Speech refers to a common phrase that BoBo mentions in the piece. But again, it’s a common enough phrase, especially in the business world that just using that as the headline doesn’t actually tell you anything. The Hex on Paul Ryan is the least terrible of the headlines, and it’s not particularly good either. I guess you could probably guess that the hex is being picked as VP, but the piece probably spent more time on Biden than Ryan, so maybe something more VP related would be better.

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Free Ride

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 9/5/12, 8:02 am

Over at Seattle Transit Blog, there’s a discussion of the upcoming elimination of the free ride area, and answering some objections to it. While I generally agree with the post, this stuck in my craw: “while I would like to see more County programs that provide transportation assistance to the poor, giving everyone a break on downtown trips seems like a badly targeted way to do it.”

I’m not sure that it’s in the county’s best interest, in general, to separate things that help the middle class from those that help the poor. Programs tailored to the poor have a tendency to get the ax earlier than those with middle class support.

I readily admit that I don’t know what busing should look like downtown. And I support eliminating the ride free area (although I supported it a lot more before the fare increases). But in general, I don’t think it’s a good idea to have separate programs for the poor and the middle class.

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Michelle speaks

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 10:48 pm

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 3:42 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Believe it our not, this will be the first week of the 2012 presidential General Election. That’s worth discussing. Oh…and the Democratic Convention is now underway.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. And the Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.

With 236 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Open Thread 9/4

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 8:03 am

– Desmond Tutu says Bush and Blair should be tried for war crimes.

– The terrible thing is that he’s right.

– Sure, Paul Ryan’s marathon time should be the lie that proves he’s a liar.

– What to do with the missing link if there’s still an EIS to do?

– One true soul mate.

– Theistic evolution

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Monday, 9/3/12, 6:01 pm


Obama Romney
97.2% probability of winning 2.8% probability of winning
Mean of 305 electoral votes Mean of 233 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.

Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1548 2.5 48 47 O+1
MI EPIC/MRA 28-Aug 28-Aug 1200 2.6 49 46 O+3
MO PPP 28-Aug 29-Aug 621 3.9 41 53 R+12
NC PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1012 3.1 48 48 tie
NC SurveyUSA 26-Aug 30-Aug 543 4.3 43 46 R+3
NC Elon U 25-Aug 30-Aug 1089 3.0 43 47 R+4
WV R.L. Repass 22-Aug 25-Aug 401 4.9 38 52 R+14

Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.

Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12Michigan

A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12Missouri

Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12North Carolina

In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.

Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.

The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.

Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.

The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Labor Day open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 9/3/12, 9:30 am

Why Unions matter more than ever.

Roy ZImmerman: The Problem With Democrats:

“In 1968, France was a dangerous place to be for a 21-year-old American, but Mitt Romney was right in the middle of it.”

Bill Maher’s New Rule: GOP must admit George W. Bush exists .

The making of Labor Day.

The redevelopment of Yesler Terrace.

Chair Talk:

  • The Million Dollar Chair.
  • Jon celebrates Clint Eastwood’s ‘Fistful Of Awesome’ speech
  • The old man from Gran Torino crashes the RNC.
  • Bill Maher defends Clint Eastwood.
  • Clint Eastwood’s Comedy Central Chair Roast.

Bashir: Is Paul Ryan the fastest ‘Kenyan’ candidate ever???

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